Two possible broodies - need opinions

[KBEquine]

I promised a friend who doesn't post here to ask about Mare #1 & was looking at Mare #2 myself:

Mare #1:
This is a mare who is on layup who has a lot of things going for her, but she's a bad bleeder (bleeds through the Lasix). She is either on layup or retired, depending on when you talk to her owner.

I've just started looking for other threads & information on bleeders & will try to find those threads after I've posted this but . . .

The owner is looking for options to send her back to the track, if he can figure out how to (legally) control the bleeding (since Lasix alone didn't seem to work). I said I'd ask for suggestions, although I think he's already heard/tried a whole lot & is leaning toward retiring her.

If she isn't likely to be able to go back to the track, he's talking about making a race broodmare out of her, so is looking for opinions from anyone who has been around a broodmare who bled badly herself -- and information on whether the mare's foals always (or often) had the same problem. (Because Plan C is to see if she wants to be a riding horse, but he'd love to add her to his broodmare band.)

Mare #2:
Mare #2 is one we will probably be going to see soon. She had a short and mediocre race career (10 starts, 2 wins, the first a MSW at a lower level track & the 2nd a bottom claimer), but also had a fairly mediocre trainer start her, so I don't know how to interpret the short career - lack of soundness, lack of decent breaking/early training, lack of desire - or something else entirely. Her pedigree is very good & if her conformation is a match, the remaining question is her race record.

In her 1st race she wired the field & posted some blistering fractions - I looked up the 2009 Breeder's Cup sprint chart for a point of comparison for what fractions really fast horses run & discovered that had she been in that race & run the same way she did in the MSW, she would have had the lead after a quarter mile & would probably still have been in the top 3 at 4f (although would have ultimately finished last). But she set those fractions as a 2 y.o. & then did very little after.

What I don't know is whether 'normal' race horses occasionally run that far above themselves - and whether it is a talent they can pass or if it is something they can never contribute to their foals (then I couple it with the short race career & wonder if it is fragile talent in her case).

I can't decide whether to get excited because I've found a mare with hidden talent or to run away to keep from buying my very own Green Monkey . . .

Would you consider her if you were looking for a broodmare (Presume her paper is good for what you want, as is her conformation. The possible "hole" I'd like to discuss is her record/talent.)

I won't be posting pedigrees of either mare (I only know the one as "Rick's dark mare" & until I decide to buy or not buy the other, I don't want to identify her.) But still I'd appreciate any thoughts on either mare.

Thanks

[Fireslam]

Its really impossible to form any opinion without a pedigree? Are the mares by Storm Cat? Are they by grandsons of Storm Cat? Were their dams grade one winners? Were their dams stabled next to a grade one winner? Without a pedigree, a mediocre race record is just that.

[LB]

I'm perhaps a little confused about your desciption of Mare # 2 and her "mediocre race record". A fast quarter mile or half mile is kind of meaningless to me. I think most TBs are capable of running fast for a short distance if they're so inclined. Comparisons to the BC Sprint...well...it's a moot point. There's no glory in leading after the first two furlongs--that's not where the race ends.

Since you don't know why her career went downhill, or why it ended, I'd probably base my decision about her more on her pedigree and physical. I guess I'm with Fireslam. I don't think we have enough information to form an opinion.

[BargainBlueblood]

A million reasons mare #2 wasn't able to sustain her early success. One good thing to consider is whether or not her dam is still producing, or if she has producing half-sisters. If you feel like there's a chance for a catalog-page upgrade, that's always a nice bonus that could help tip the balance. Your other option might be to try to track down her breeder, or her trainer at the time she broke her maiden, to see what they have to say about her. I find folks are generally willing to be open and honest in these sorts of matters, especially if you present yourself as a small breeder who really needs to get as much information as possible before adding to your broodmare band.

[KBEquine]

A fast quarter mile or half mile is kind of meaningless to me. I think most TBs are capable of running fast for a short distance if they're so inclined. Comparisons to the BC Sprint...well...it's a moot point. There's no glory in leading after the first two furlongs--that's not where the race ends.

Since you don't know why her career went downhill, or why it ended, I'd probably base my decision about her more on her pedigree and physical.

You know, I might have asked the question very badly, but you cut through the words to the meaning. That's what I wanted to know. Thanks.

Fireslam - No Storm Cat anywhere. Three Raise A Natives (only one via Mr. P) & 3 x 5 to In Reality. No other inbreeding.

And BargainBlueblood - thanks for the suggestions. I'll follow up on them.

[Fireslam]

I was just trying to make the point that what some people think is a good pedigree for a brood mare isnt, especially now. If she's by "Storm Cat" (or insert any top sire) or by a grand son of "top" sire, makes a huge difference. Crosses to stallions 4 or 5 gens. back mean nothing. Sire and first dam, maybe second dam, is whats crucial in a broodmare prospect. Even second dam is iffy, since that will be the 3rd dam in a foal.

[KBEquine]

I was just trying to make the point that what some people think is a good pedigree for a brood mare isnt, especially now. If she's by "Storm Cat" (or insert any top sire) or by a grand son of "top" sire, makes a huge difference. Crosses to stallions 4 or 5 gens. back mean nothing. Sire and first dam, maybe second dam, is whats crucial in a broodmare prospect. Even second dam is iffy, since that will be the 3rd dam in a foal.

'

Hi Fireslam. I didn't mean to sound argumentative. I should have started by saying I already really, really like her pedigree - good sire, lots of significant blacktype under 2nd & 3rd dam (which was one of the reasons BargainBlueblood's suggestion to see whether there was a way to improve under the 1st dam resonated. And I'll better judge her conformation when we see her in person.

I should probably have started this whole thread with saying I was satisfied with her prospects EXCEPT for her race record - short, for my taste & I was wondering if that fast start meant anything positive, so I could like her career a little better.

And I should probably have articulated it better, because I clearly didn't do that part very well!

Thanks - I do appreciate the input.

[Fireslam]

Thats my whole point (and I dont see it as argumentative, just having a discussion). If the black type on the mare is in the second and third dam, that means the foal will have a blank first and second dam, and that is deadly in this market. If you dont plan on selling and just racing, you might be alright, but if theres even an inkling of going commercial, you have a big uphill battle with this.

[KBEquine]

Actually, I thought I was the one who might have sounded argumentative.

But I also thought I'd mentioned up front that I was looking at the mare to breed to a particular stallion for a racehorse for myself. (And upon re-reading, see that I had failed to mention that, which would surely have given you some important additional information.)

My main question was what weight - if any - to put on the fact that a horse is very fast early in a race. If it isn't unusual & doesn't pass to offspring . . . that answers the question about Mare #2.

[LB]

My main question was what weight - if any - to put on the fact that a horse is very fast early in a race. If it isn't unusual & doesn't pass to offspring . . . that answers the question about Mare #2.

Well you've discovered that she has speed and that's always a good thing.

But trying to judge talent from early fractions is like trying to do the same from morning works. Just because a horse works slowly doesn't mean he is slow--could be that's what the trainer asked for. Conversely some of the fastest workers (morning glories) never win a race.

Most trainers don't want their horses running flat out early in a race. They'd rather that they save their burst of speed for the stretch.

A mare that has early speed and is able to carry it all the way to the wire is a real find. One that leads when no one else wants the lead but then gets passed in the stretch isn't nearly as useful.

[KBEquine]

Actually before this mare, I never did look at early fractions for any reason, and was mostly 2nd guessing myself as to whether I maybe should have been paying attention to that in the past, but wasn't.

Thanks for all the help, all of you - you gave me a lot to think about & in the end, it turns out that I still can't tell whether this mare brings to the table the things I need her to bring. Which usually means 'don't buy her.'

[BargainBlueblood]

Here's an important question. In this mare's first start, what track did she win at and what level? Whom did she beat? Did any of the runners she defeated go on to have stakes-level careers? If this mare at least showed enough in her debut to defeat some good runners, she certainly shouldn't be dismissed based on whatever happened to her down the road.

[KBEquine]

A fuller reply -

I should have paid more attention to my friend's mare (Mare #1 - the bleeder). Apparently, Mare #2 is a pretty serious bleeder, too. So now I'm asking myself, did she run a couple furlongs until she bled & couldn't breath for the blood? Maybe.

With regard to where she raced & against who, in her first race she did beat a mare who later was stakes-placed & has so far earned $130k & in her 2nd race, she lost to a mare who is a multiple stakes-winner & graded stakes performer. The 1st race was on the turf at Penn, the 2nd was off the turf at Pimlico.

Her own siblings have almost no chance of improving her page. Her dam's siblings have a significant chance of improving it, even though they are a little removed from her foals.

BUT her dam has full sibs who have variously produced multiple G1 performing offspring as well as full sibs who themselves have run very fast times for 1 or 2 furlongs at 2 y.o. in training sales & not been able to carry that speed for any distance (not The Green Monkey, but it did make me think). And it is this part of her pedigree that really makes me squint & try to figure out whether I'm seeing something really good or really bad.

Physically, she is big & balanced. I'd fault her only in that she is a little straight through the hock.

On the other hand & to hedge my bet, we've got a pretty popular sporthorse sire who might fix that & she could go to him for sport, instead of as a race mare or racehorse dam . . .

But that was supposed to be Plan B or C, not Plan A.

[KBEquine]

Went with Plan B or C - in the end, I liked her too much as a riding horse prospect (for me) or broodmare for sport to decide against her because I couldn't (still can't) decide on her value as a potential race broodmare. Still like her family, though, even if the closest blacktype is her dam's siblings & her own aren't likely to help her page.

http://www.pedigreequery.com/subtle+cue

http://apps.keeneland.com/sales/nov06/pdfs/4673.pdf

And a snippet about her I found after we'd brought her home:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editoria ... gi?id=6334
If you scroll half-way down, it talks about her:

The top-priced weanling, a filly from the first crop of Grade 2 victor Soto (Dehere), also commanded $50,000. Purchased by Highclere Stallions from the consignment of Moonestone Sales, agent, the May 2 Kentucky-bred toured the ring as Hip 4673.

The youngster is the fifth foal from the unraced Meadow Lily (Meadowlake), who is a full sister to stakes winner Streamer and a half-sister to stakes victor Krikiti (Kris S.). Meadow Lily is also a half-sister to the dams of stakes winners Brushedbythebest (Broad Brush) and I'll Love Again (El Condor Pasa). This is the family of Grade 2 hero Hasty Kris (Kissin Kris).

Now must go out & feed her & her new friends.

[LB]

Congratulations! I hope she works out well for you.