Which Mating Has More Promise?

[BJ]

3x3 Icecapade
4x4 Nearctic
4x4 Shenanigans
5x5 Native Dancer

Proposed sire stats =
32 Starts, 6 Wins, 8 Places, 0 Shows Career Earnings: $501,615
5% Stakes winners from foals/12% Stakes horses
At 3 2nd Volante Handicap -G3, Bay Meadows Derby -G3, El Cajon S. (R) (O)
At 4 Won Charles H. Strub S.

Proposed Dam's record is 4-1-1-0, she is a full sister to a CA Stakes Winner & NTR setter, as well as two other full siblings with earnings over $100k.

or

3x6 Northern Dancer
4x4 Nearctic (through Northern Dancer & Icecapade)
5x5 Native Dancer (through Natalma & Shenanigans)

Same Dam as above
Proposed sire's stats=
27 Starts, 5 Wins, 2 Places, 4 Shows Career Earnings: $125,522
6% Stakes winners from foals/17% Stakes horses
At 2 In Ireland Won Orby E.B.F.Stakes, 3rd John Roarty Memorial E.B.F. Railway S.(Ire.G3) at 3 in Italy Won Premio Daumier

[BJ]

I should add...breeding to race.

[henthorn]

I feel like my hands are tied behind my back on this one. I don't choose a mating based on one cross, unless it's to stay away from one that's too closely inbred. There are so many other factors that I am starting to appreciate lately, such as the female family and it's descendants, and what sires worked well with them. There are nicks for the sires and broodmare sires, and there are also apparent nicks for sirelines with the dams and second dams and their children (sibs and cousins of the mate in question). If you could give us the name of the horses in questions, either privately or on the forum, we could consider the cases with more comfort.

[madelyn]

What henthorn said...

[Linda in TX]

I agree with henthorn. The art of pedigree analysis is a lot like putting together a jigsaw puzzle or even handicapping a race. When it's completed, all the pieces (or most) fit together or all the data points to the best play. A smart person doesn't bet on a horse race with no more information than the names of the horses and their program number (yeah, I know. Many do - but the operative word was "smart"). So why would a smart person breed a horse without thoroughly examining every detail to try to determine the best possible outcome just as is done when handicapping? To make mating decisions any other way is simply "slappin' 'em together."

If you're going to breed horses based on the very limited criteria of a 4 x 4 to this horse or that, you might as well put the stallions' names in a hat and draw one out.