Thinking about next year....

Get advice on your broodmares and stallion selection.

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madelyn
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Thinking about next year....

Postby madelyn » Sat Sep 26, 2020 6:26 am

I've got this tough gritty filly Stormy Memo, and while I always call her "little Stormy Memo" she is really about 15.3-1/2 hands. It's more in reference to the tiny yearling she was. Anyhow she is in Wednesday at Belterra for probably her last start this year. She has those "Storm Cat" knees that turn out a bit and the right one is showing some wear. But she has done well all things considered and has a ton of heart and lovely conformation aside from the knees. She is by Stormy Atlantic, out of Memorette by Memo (CHI). Memorette was memorable, having won $896K in 32 starts, 30 of them stakes. When I bought Stormy Memo, Memorette had not really had anything of note, having been bred expensively, but perhaps not wisely. Stormy Memo joins Take a Memo as one of the mare's two winners. However, the half sisters have started to produce. Call Her Chelsea (Curlin) has thrown My Borrowed Angel ($156K in 7 starts).

Anyhow, there is no money for her at Turfway since she is a CAL bred.. so she will likely come to the farm next week and I might think about breeding next year. She is a full bodied compact filly with good bone, nice neck and head but stlll wearing the yearling halter she had on when I bought her. Who in KY would you go to (under 10K)? I kind of like Wicked Strong or Midnight Storm....
So Run for the Roses, as fast as you can.....

Tappiano
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Re: Thinking about next year....

Postby Tappiano » Tue Sep 29, 2020 3:30 pm

I have no suggestions, but want to point out that many times you mention a horse you like, they wind up being sold off.

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madelyn
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Re: Thinking about next year....

Postby madelyn » Fri Oct 02, 2020 6:33 am

yeah, it's too early to speculate I guess. It's best to wait until after the November sale.
So Run for the Roses, as fast as you can.....

kimberley mine
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Re: Thinking about next year....

Postby kimberley mine » Wed Oct 21, 2020 11:59 am

Madelyn, the two who come to mind are Dominus and Tamarkuz.

Dominus -- kind of a sleeper at $5k. Smart Strike would tie into the Canadian bloodlines of Storm Bird and Nijinsky in Stormy Memo's pedigree, plus he's overall improving his mares.

Tamarkuz -- yes, the hypothetical foal's pedigree looks like a Christmas tree with all of the linebreeding, but I wouldn't necessarily let it put you off if the physicals match well. He was fast enough to win the BC Dirt Mile over Gun Runner. Out of his first crop of 29 foals, his best runner to date is a Santa Anita MSW winner out of a Stormy Atlantic mare. Pedigree-wise, he brings in lots of Tom Fool via Buckpasser and Tim Tam and lots of Somethingroyal to tie into Memo's broodmare sire Chairman Walker, plus another cross to Thong to tie into Stormy Atlantic and Thatch. He's priced at $10k but it's worth asking Shadwell if they'll negotiate on that.

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Re: Thinking about next year....

Postby Altanbarr » Thu Oct 22, 2020 9:32 am

Sons of Indian Charlie get an A++ nick. Mo Town?

kimberley mine
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Re: Thinking about next year....

Postby kimberley mine » Thu Oct 22, 2020 9:45 am

Madelyn, a couple more...

Include at $5000 is a very fair value for breeding a sound, money-earning racehorse. Almost 90% of his foals race and 3/4 of them win, with a median earnings of almost $40,000. Pedigree-wise he brings in more Tom Fool via Stop the Music and more Nijinsky, although I'd classify this more as a "breed a good racehorse" pairing than a pedigree match.

Mizzen Mast at $7500 is another older stallion who gets a lot of quality winners at a fair fee. This database shows he has 12 foals out of Stormy Atlantic mares, for 7 total winners out of 10 of racing age, including 2 stakes winners and 2 more who won >$80k. One of those stakes winners is at Woodbine, which runs on Tapeta, and one won on the dirt at Keeneland. Pedigree-wise, he brings a daughter strain of Tom Fool and a line to Sir Gaylord (Somethingroyal), and Cozzene appreciate son strains of Ribot which your mare has through Key to the Mint.

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madelyn
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Re: Thinking about next year....

Postby madelyn » Thu Oct 22, 2020 6:46 pm

Wow thanks lots to think about. I wonder, though, if Include at 24 is going to be limited to "no maiden mares" as a lot of the older horses are. I was intrigued also with Tourist. The other mare I'm toying with breeding is Queen Maxine. She is a big beautiful mare. She mainly had bad racing luck - but on a good day on the right turf, she could get the mile in 1.35 and change. Sound Sound Sound. Tough to match her up with anything, though.
So Run for the Roses, as fast as you can.....

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Re: Thinking about next year....

Postby kimberley mine » Fri Oct 23, 2020 10:18 am

Madelyn, about Include, can't hurt to ask, the worst they can say is no.

About Queen Maxine, she might not be as tough to match as you think. Right away I noticed that she's doubled up on Double Jay (*sound* speed) and that her 5th dam Hipparete is a full sister to Menow, sire of Tom Fool. I also note that Albertus Maximus has a cross to Vice Regal and old-school Windfields blood really likes a return of its own.

Letting the last be first -- [b]Skipshot[/b] earned his place in Kentucky the hard way, and he's not a one-horse wonder. Aside from Vasilika, he has 10 horses who have earned more than $100k on the track and at least half of them are still running. Pedigree-wise, he has been successful being linebred to both Halo and Double Jay, both of which Queen Maxine has on both sides. Skipshot's grandsire Skip Trial is from the Torpenhow family, which LOVES extra Double Jay.

Old Windfields Lines -- Purely on paper I like McCracken: Deputy Minister and Icecapade are the old Canadian lines; there is plenty of Menow via Blushing Groom, Seeking the Gold, and Tri Jet; his 3rd dam is by Nodouble. There's quality graded stakes production under every dam on his page.

El Prado -- Fast Anna is interesting. He has plenty of Menow through Blushing Groom, L'Enjoleur, and El Prado (plus a line to Menow/Hippolete's half-sister Salaminia via Sir Ivor) and offers linebreeding to Ballade via Devil's Bag and Glorious Song. You can't fault the female family and despite his oldest foal crop being only 3, 75% of that first crop have started and 40% are winners. That's a good sign that his foals are sound enough and talented enough to be worth putting in training.

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Re: Thinking about next year....

Postby madelyn » Sat Oct 24, 2020 8:09 am

Gosh kimberley I sure love these ideas.. next thing is to find two at one spot to "group" them and negotiate the fees down... I like all of them for breed to race. I don't really think I can breed to "sell" with a 5K fee and either of these mares. What about the Indian Charlie idea, though? Skipshot for Queen Maxine and maybe Conveyance for Stormy Memo? I wonder if the Holy Bull there has some impact? Stormy is a compact filly and I don't want a really big stallion for her. "Small" horses run too and oftentimes stay more sound.

I have always loved Include, and I had a fabulous filly who looked a lot like him, who was by Istan out of an Include mare. Physically his conformation suits Queen Maxine, but not Stormy Memo. I think I will have to go on a tour with a list and get photos of all of these guys and then line them up with my mares.
So Run for the Roses, as fast as you can.....

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Re: Thinking about next year....

Postby kimberley mine » Sat Oct 24, 2020 5:36 pm

Madelyn,

Did you notice that Conveyance is from the same Hipparete/Alcibiades female family as Queen Maxine?

Conveyance's 4th dam Ciao is bred on the same pattern as Queen Maxine's 3rd dam Brag. If we look at the best horses in Ciao's branch of the family, the ones that jump off the page are Silent Account (by Private Account, Damascus over a Buckpasser mare) and Plum Pretty (by Medaglia D'Oro, who I've already discussed). To continue this theme a little bit, there is a champion stallion standing in Kentucky and a sound, very high performing stallion in Maryland out of mares by Unaccounted For (Private Account ex. Mrs. Jenney, by The Minstrel). Big Blue Kitten has the El Prado and L'Enjoleur lines. Hoppertunity is a grandson of Forty Niner. These are the same cluster breeding patterns that I discussed above for Queen Maxine, on Tom Fool/Alcibiades links, and that's the cross for Plum Pretty. Queen Maxine's branch of the family hasn't had as much success in recent years as this one, so it could be an interesting pairing to revive the line a bit.

For Conveyance and Stormy Memo, if you look at Holy Bull's best offspring, I see a lot of Menow/Tom Fool up close (Giacomo, Macho Uno, Flashy Bull, Confessional, Woke Up Dreamin all have an obvious Tom Fool source within 4 generations). Both mares have plenty of that.

Cinco Charlie: if you look at TrueNicks, the A++ rating for Indian Charlie and Stormy Atlantic mares comes from this guy's 3/4 sibling Bwana Charlie and a little bit to Bwana Charlie's full brother My Pal Charlie. Aside from the lovely Halo line (and it's pretty clear that Halo massively upgraded this family), Cinco Charlie is cluster-bred to old Windfields Farm bloodlines. His 3rd dam is by Dance in Time, by Northern Dancer out of a mare by Chop Chop). His broodmare sire Marquetry is out of a Vice Regent mare (ND over a mare by Menetrier (FR), who has the horse Buchan (by Torpoint) up close. Chop Chop is by Flares out of a Buchan mare. Storm Bird is a 3/4 genetic relation to Dance in Time, by ND out of a Bull Page-line mare who is out of a Chop Chop mare. Nijinsky is by ND out of a Bull Page-line mare whose 2nd dam is by Omaha, a full sibling to Flares, and he descends in tail-female to Torpenhow, by Torpoint. This genetic cluster breeding pattern is partially why Storm Bird and Nijinsky do well with one another...see Ipi Tombe (ZIM) as an example!

Stormy Memo has both Storm Bird and Nijinsky, plus a bonus line to Buchan via Gallant Man.

Midnight Storm: I didn't look too hard at him because I've heard you say more than once that it's a bad idea to knowingly breed a turf horse -- if you get one and that's how it is fine, but intentionally breeding one is a money-losing proposition. Yes, he won on dirt as an older horse...against fields of suspect quality in California. His grass form was MUCH better, holding his own against the likes of BC Mile winner Tourist, Tepin, Bal a Bali, Ashleyluvssugar, etc. American Pharoah, also by Pioneerofthe Nile and with a dirt pedigree, is producing much better of turf than dirt so far. There's nothing glaringly good or bad about his pedigree matchup with either mare...but if you don't want to breed a turf horse, caveat emptor. Also, of the female families of every horse I've mentioned, his is by far the weakest.

Funtastic: He's sort of an outcross, except where he's not. More Than Ready brings in Halo and Buckpasser. Fappiano actually brings in an unusual line to Torpenhow -- his 2nd dam is by Correlation, who is from the same Firetop branch of Torpenhow as Nijinsky. (Skipshot descends from the Fluoroscee branch.) For Stormy Memo, Halo and Torpenhow work well. For Queen Maxine, Albertus Maximus's half-brother by More Than Ready is...Daredevil!

Some possible package deals:

1. Both mares to Conveyance.
2. Both mares to Cinco Charlie.
3. Queen Maxine to Skipshot, Stormy Memo to Conveyance.
4. Queen Maxine to Include, Stormy Memo to McCraken <-- if you're going to do this, probably now is the year to do it as Include is 24
5. Queen Maxine to Fast Anna, Stormy Memo to Funtastic

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Re: Thinking about next year....

Postby madelyn » Sun Oct 25, 2020 1:15 pm

I DO say that about turf horses! How amazing of you to remember!

I'm really looking hard at Cinco Charlie - he kind of ticks all the boxes. Sound, dirt, fast, could sprint and route. I will have to go and see him.

I like Conveyance, I think he is an underdog, who had speed and liked dirt but Baffert kept trying to convert him into a classic horse when apparently he was 7f to a mile. Questionable about soundness, though.

Skipshot scares me - couldn't perform in his two dirt starts, and is putting out grass and poly types, as, I think, is Fast Anna. I had put Funtastic on my list too.

Stormy Memo could go any surface just about any kind of distance. 5f on the turf to a mile and a 16th in the mud. She could compete at 6f dirt and a mile turf. Very versatile and talented horse. Just the right knee that kind of stopped us. She is pasture sound, bucking and galloping around, but anything more she will come up sore. She really hurt it in her last race. In fact four came back to the receiving barn, different races, all absolutely hobbling on the right knee. There was one in the race before my race and the owner was perplexed because she had never had anything at all. I want soundness for her.

Queen Maxine is totally sound just horribly PICKY - it has to be a mile on the turf or very slick greasy shiny slop, and then she needs the right ride - slower first quarter and half and a really clear stretch run. Traffic hater. Maybe needs to add in some versatility and a bit more speed. She doesn't LOOK like a grass horse, and has small feet. Turf was a hail mary with her and it worked.
So Run for the Roses, as fast as you can.....

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Re: Thinking about next year....

Postby kimberley mine » Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:47 pm

Sounds like Queen Maxine needs someone who puts out trainable dispositions as well as speed and versatility. :D

Funtastic suits Queen Maxine pedigree-wise, the only question I had with him was that he's so far unproven and I tried to find stallions that had at least some progeny running so you could see what they look like. That said, all of his wins were on turf. He comes from a family with deep, deep turf talent that occasionally produces absolutely top-class dirt runners (Gun Runner, Saint Liam). His sire is arguably more successful with turf runners than dirt, even without his Australian-bred horses factored in.

One I didn't mention (because of his fee) but keep coming back to for Queen Maxine is Lord Nelson. He's got the speed. He was trainable enough to race three years and the laminitis that nearly killed him was caused by an infected cut instead of a biomechanical issue. Most of all he's got that amazing female family behind him. His first two dams are by US-bred sires who have been successful in the USA, and his first dam has four winners out of four foals by four different stallions, which suggests that the Argentine family won't be a dealbreaker -- and through Chasethewildwind, Queen Maxine has lines to Embrujo (by Congreve), one of the most influential sires in all of South American breeding. That doesn't mean it will be an advantage, but does raise the chances that there are complementary genetics in there somewhere. The cross also brings in a ton of Tom Fool, more Halo, some Nijinsky to cross with Albert The Great's lines to Vice Regent and Torpenhow, Bold Lad's 3/4 brother Honest Pleasure, and an unusual son of Bold Ruler named Stupendous (Bold Ruler ex Magneto, by Ambiorix, ex Dynamo, by Menow) who is a genetic sibling to Queen Maxine's 3rd dam Brag (by Bold Lad ex Out Talk, by Ambiorix, ex Hipparete, by Pharamond ex Alciabiades). Stupendous is the broodmare sire of Stall Only, dam of Cipayo.

TrueNicks rates AP Indy sons over Albert the Great-line mares as A++, with 2 SW out of 25 total foals to race, so there's that.

Lord Nelson's first crop will be 2yos of 2021. It might be worth trying to work a deal for both mares at Spendthrift: Stormy Memo to Cinco Charlie and Queen Maxine to Lord Nelson.

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Re: Thinking about next year....

Postby Joltman » Mon Oct 26, 2020 4:12 pm

Interesting possibilities. At least the stallion farms have backed up the stud fees esp at the lower end.

On paper there have been some perennial overachievers at a lower stud fee - like Daaher, Birdstone and Include. I think Cinco Charlie might hit that category. One wild card (really wild) is Hightail, who has had two Big horses with little opportunity - and not much else, but Calumet snatched him up - can't be asking much. BC Sprint winner - has that look I think. Has a few nice ones in his female family.

I think Lord Nelson does offer a lot to like if you like speed. Getting his stud fee whacked in half helps. 13 starts is decent but over 4 years I wonder if there were issues, esp for a sprinter. But he held up, in Baffert's barn I think, which is saying something. Good if you want to add some MP close up.

jm
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Re: Thinking about next year....

Postby kimberley mine » Mon Oct 26, 2020 8:51 pm

Lord Nelson went through the Triple Crown qualifying meat grinder while in Baffert’s barn and he had a long rest after. Something happened in or shortly after the Malibu to lay him up another 6 months. After he was purchased by Spendthrift , he ran longer than 6f only once. That obviously worked for him.

Hightail’s top three earners all are out of Roberto-line mares. The dams of Mongolian Groom and Dynatail were purple-pedigreed mares who seem to have been injured early...Dynatail’s dam is a 3/4 sister to Film Maker from the extended family of Life’s Magic, Kittiwake, and Sandler’s Joy, and Mongolian Groom is out of a half sister to Saarland from the extended family of Gold Fever, Boisterous, and Exclusive Native. That’s not to say he didn’t bring something good to the table, because clearly he did. That said, small sample size error is a thing, and it might be worth seeing if he gets similar results for non-Roberto-kine mares.

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Re: Thinking about next year....

Postby madelyn » Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:30 pm

Hightail.... His top earners are out of foal crops of 4 and 2 respectively. They sent him off to AR where he continued getting small crops, but probably not much in the way of mare quality, and in 2020 brought him back here most likely due to the astonishing success of Mongolian Groom and Dynatail. He is listed as "private" - who knows what that really means? One of my pals won a season to him in a raffle at Churchill somehow and I am currently taking care of the mare in foal to him. Interesting.

It is kind of wryly humorous that you like Lord Nelson for Queen Maxine - the foal name possibilities are whimsical.. Admiral of the Realm, Son of a Sailor, Prince Nelson, etc etc etc.
So Run for the Roses, as fast as you can.....