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 Post subject: new mare... ideas?
PostPosted: Thu Sep 04, 2014 5:27 am 
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I recently purchased a young Artie Schiller mare. She is a 1/2 sister to the recently G1-placed Sheldon, and a full sister to a failry regional stakes-placed filly. Another full brother is racing in Italy. There is also a hard luck 1/2 brother who was 4th in two stakes races, and actually ran 2nd in another stakes only to be DQd and dropped to 6th. Talk about unlucky!

My initial thoughts were to sell her at Keeneland January as a broodmare prospect, but I'm also considering breeding her to a more commercial stallion and selling at Keeneland November.

The stallion who has my eye right now is Drosselmeyer, and I'm interested in folks' opinions on this or suggestions of another stallion.

The mare is Golden Encore, and the most recent catalog page from the family (before Sheldon became stakes placed) is here: http://obssales.com/aprcatalog/2013/428.PDF

Physically, she's very refined and about 15.3-16 hands.

thoughts?


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 Post subject: Re: new mare... ideas?
PostPosted: Thu Sep 04, 2014 11:55 am 
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This mare was poor at best to be kind.

She won over 6f why breed to an unproven KY stallion who won over 12f and 10f his two biggest wins.

The best thing for this mare and her foal would be to be bred to a regional stallion that is proven.

Frost Giant in Ny would be my suggestion.
$10,000 fee and $33,000 average for foals this year.
AEI 1.96 CI 1.12 plus 5 SW.

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 Post subject: Re: new mare... ideas?
PostPosted: Thu Sep 04, 2014 8:03 pm 
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Hi Springboro,

Sell her right away will reduce your risks. Those risks being, she has a hard time getting pregnant or for some reason has a hard time getting pregnant. Or difficult birth. All the boarding bills and losses if the worst happens can be avoided if you take your profit and run.

On the other hand, if you breed her and sell her in foal, and if you do end up selecting a red-hot stallion, you might do better than you would if she sells in January. A buyer will pay more for a pregnant mare as "two for one", however buyers today are so sophisticated. they will look for reasons not to buy if they have too much downside.

Drosselmeyer will present a home run or a disaster. He's so close to having 2 year olds running that next November you may be faced with buyer panic if they aren't precocious and winning right off the bat, so your mare won't get enough bids to get a good price. On the other hand if he's pulling a super saver or a warriors reward you could do great. But the odds are against all stallions of being "the one" who is THE stallion of next year's freshman sire list and mare buyers know this.

Somewhat safer MIGHT be to breed to a stallion who is first year or early enough that a buyer of your mare isn't worried about having a yearling on the ground to a stallion who might be cold that first year.

Or, probably better, is to breed to an up-and-coming stallion who has real fans, and could go red-hot. Case in point: two years ago, when Into Mischief had 2 graded stakes winners on the same day in early February or March, I don't remember, of his freshman sire season, mare owners grabbed his seasons at $7,500 for one to two weeks afterward, before his stud fee went up, and those mares probably sold very well the following November. So you could watch and try to snag a hot up and comer, and one example could be Temple City. Its too early to know if he's a star in the making or if his recent graded stakes winner is a one hit wonder, but a few more months will give you more evidence. If Temple City IS getting multiple high class runners, you'd be breeding on the pattern that produced Sheldon.

Whatever you decide to do I wish you the best. If Sheldon wins a gr. 1 or multiple grade 1's it will even be better and one thing you might do is get in touch with Sheldon's trainer and believe me they are used to breeders and mare owners wanting insight. If Sheldon is training great and has more upside, it might guide your decision to not sell right away versus breed and sell.

And just to be clear, Drosselmeyer might be an awesome sire. It's just so hard to know at this point.

Good luck!


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 Post subject: Re: new mare... ideas?
PostPosted: Fri Sep 05, 2014 5:27 am 
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Mac, thanks so much for your helpful input!!

That's exactly the information I was seeking and it mostly backs up what I had been thinking. I had considered sons of Dynaformer, just in case Sheldon gets hot later this year or next. The temptation for Drosselmeyer is sparked by the news that he had the highest priced colt at Fasig-Tipton Saratoga recently, but you're right that were I to breed to him now and his foals aren't superstar two year olds, the market can be very unforgiving.

Again, THANK YOU!


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 Post subject: Re: new mare... ideas?
PostPosted: Fri Sep 05, 2014 5:26 pm 
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:shock: wait--you mean--Mac was more helpful than Dublino? :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: new mare... ideas?
PostPosted: Sat Sep 06, 2014 1:25 am 
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Ladies handbags down please. :lol:

I was trying to be helpful and what some people don't like honest. :shock:

Effectively what Springboro is doing is breeding to dump and make a quick few quid and not worry about the foal or mare.

Again not judging a lot of people are doing it - I was just trying to give the resulting foal and owners a chance at recouping their money.

Firstly horse racing is a business and secondly horses don't ask to be bred by us, but we should have some kind of moral responsibility to try and improve the breeed and give horses the best chance of success/earning their way cause if they don't slaughter house time - and nobody wants that.

Look at the tread where worksoplad bought the filly Queen of the Sand.
I said he bought well and the filly was a nice one just below stakes level here.
The filly has won 2 races in CA and is now going for a stakes race next.

If someone has a good filly - I will say its good if someone has a poor or average filly and posts on a public forum looking for input - I will be honest.

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 Post subject: Re: new mare... ideas?
PostPosted: Sat Sep 06, 2014 7:14 pm 
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Thanks a bunch guys... I was simply pointing out that Mac provided detailed info when Dublino just made an honest and rather too frank comment that didn't provide a lot of reasons why. I kind of love Dublino, although he/she/whatever can be reallllly rough. I was teasing, but accept D for who he/she is.
But ct . . ....what's your problem? I said nothing about having more knowledge than anyone, and again, you are being unkind to fans, who make up a lot of this game, and my fantasy stables have taught me a lot. I am learning and collecting my own objective data instead of just taking everyone's word for things--isn't that what true horsemen should do? Plus I am soon to be a part owner...so it's not all fantasy anymore. I bet I have more knowledge than a lot of you who offer un-asked for advice. I just don't trumpet it.
This forum is getting deader and deader all the time, and I think people like you are the reason why.

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 Post subject: Re: new mare... ideas?
PostPosted: Sat Sep 06, 2014 7:44 pm 
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dublino wrote:
This mare was poor at best to be kind.

She won over 6f why breed to an unproven KY stallion who won over 12f and 10f his two biggest wins.

The best thing for this mare and her foal would be to be bred to a regional stallion that is proven.

Frost Giant in Ny would be my suggestion.
$10,000 fee and $33,000 average for foals this year.
AEI 1.96 CI 1.12 plus 5 SW.


And Dublino, sorry---you actually DID provide some detailed information.

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 Post subject: Re: new mare... ideas?
PostPosted: Sat Sep 06, 2014 11:34 pm 
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And for the 100 th time I am a he.
Do I have to post a picture of my junk to prove it!! :D

Maybe that will liven up the forum?

Forgot to add the reason you will find that the forum is dying is that people on here have been buying money pits like this mare above and have been burnt by them.

Then getting all bent out of shape by saying the game is bent when in fact they are just breeding bad horses.

If you put a hat on a pig it's still a pig.

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 Post subject: Re: new mare... ideas?
PostPosted: Sun Sep 07, 2014 3:34 am 
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thanks to everyone for the thoughtful (and some not so thoughtful) responses.

I was weaned on rec.equestrian in the early internet days of bulletin boards, where flame wars and insults from the resident curmudgeon were common. I found out then it was best to not get involved with these baiters.

Mac was the one who keenly saw that this was a commercial discussion. It would be lovely to think that commercial breeders and those who breed to race had common goals, and perhaps they do. Here's the thing though, there is no magical formula to produce the best and fastest race horse. Breed the best to the best and hope? Some of us use black type races, pedigree, and prospective stallions. Others note the caliber of race horse the dam was.

It seems that Dublino simply didn't like the fact that my mare was a cheap claimer. I like to instead see her as a full sister to black type, a 1/2 sister to a G1 performer, and by a very nice stallion right now.

He thinks I should ship her all the way to NY to breed to a very nice stallion (that was a good tip and I do like Frost Giant) with a proven record. It's not a bad idea at all, if my goal were to keep her and race the foal myself.

If I were to wait for consensus and permission from a public forum, I would still just be sitting behind my computer and waiting. I do like to hear others options and thoughts. It's just sometimes I wish they were delivered with a less adversarial tone. I know that I too have been a little critical of others' bloodstock, so I can't complain too bitterly when taken to task for my own. I do think that these types of conversations with the more aggressive tones have certainly led to the reduction of participants on our little forum.

and finally, I have no need for Dublino to reveal the shriveled package that no doubt is his junk; I've accused him of being a baiter when in reality he might just be a bator.

Moderators, feel free to adjust my posting accordingly or delete it in its entirety ... I have the information I needed.


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 Post subject: Re: new mare... ideas?
PostPosted: Sun Sep 07, 2014 4:46 am 
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I am really struck by the fact this mare has really, to my eye, got an "all grass" pedigree and ran on nothing but dirt at cheap tracks. Sort of like sending a mathematician to a fiction writer's conference. Sheldon, on the other hand, has gotten the chance on grass and what looks to me like ENTIRELY different management and look what happened there.

But as it stands right now, the mare ran for cheap and that is what people will see about her to use against her in terms of her own value. With that in mind, I think $10K is too much of a fee for her. I actually like her a lot better with Brilliant Speed at $5K and you would be hitting on the bubble so they might be dealing.

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 Post subject: Re: new mare... ideas?
PostPosted: Sun Sep 07, 2014 7:18 am 
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springboro wrote:
thanks to everyone for the thoughtful (and some not so thoughtful) responses.

It seems that Dublino simply didn't like the fact that my mare was a cheap claimer.


That is exactly what future buyers will look at also.

springboro wrote:
He thinks I should ship her all the way to NY to breed to a very nice stallion (that was a good tip and I do like Frost Giant) with a proven record. It's not a bad idea at all, if my goal were to keep her and race the foal myself.


His foal average is $33,000 this year which will give the future owner a chance to make money and raise the price you could get for this "cheap claimer" in foal.

Realistically you could expect to get $50-60,000 in foal to a sire like Frost Giant for your cheap claimer who is 1/2 to a G1 placed horse.

springboro wrote:
and finally, I have no need for Dublino to reveal the shriveled package that no doubt is his junk; I've accused him of being a baiter when in reality he might just be a bator.

Shriveled how dare you sir! :oops:
And yes I am a master at baiting.... :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: new mare... ideas?
PostPosted: Tue Sep 09, 2014 5:42 am 
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Hi Dublino.... I am so delighted you have a sense of humor with the shriveled comment! I may be developing a crush on you myself . ;)

and, if you think my mare in foal to Frost Giant would bring $50K plus, let's just see how serious you are. Care to pay the stud fee and split the boarding, vet bills, farrier stuff, and of course, profits? I have the mare and she travels well. You could save me all kinds of sale prep and blanketing. I'm gonna stick her under lights in November anyhow. We might be the first pedigreequery partnership formed right here! With witnesses and everything! Let's just see how Sheldon does this weekend in the Hill Prince at Belmont and then let's talk.

Madelyn, that's exactly what I thought... why would this turfy mare run on dirt only? Even odder, her older full brother has run on SAND in Italy and done well.

thanks all!


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 Post subject: Re: new mare... ideas?
PostPosted: Tue Sep 09, 2014 6:51 am 
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Dublino...do you see anything particularly interesting as far as a good pedigree with the Frost Giant suggestion, or is it mainly due to his good numbers and probable commercial value?

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 Post subject: Re: new mare... ideas?
PostPosted: Tue Sep 09, 2014 1:15 pm 
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I have Keesep sale on in background, and FYI a half-sister to Frost Giant by Tapit (hip 327) just sold for 340K

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