breeding strategy

[jagger]

Rooky here. Is it a bad idea to breed a mare to the same stallion twice if the foal from the first breeding has not proven himself/herself on the track? I find myself in perhaps a bad situation. I have a mare who has already had a Harlan's Holiday colt last June (2005) and she was bred back to him on the foal heat. Would I be advised to sell the 2nd HH foal as a weanling, before the first HH colt hits the track?

Further, our mares first foal was by Came Home, the leading North American first year sire in 2005. This colt sold for 110K. He, Came Home, had many foals that sold for >100K with 2 that sold for >400K. I ,find myself wanting to breed to him again but if none of his high priced 2 year olds do not do well on the track, especially the one out of our mare, I will have a very hard time selling a full brother/sister. I really like Came Home for 40K and can't see anyone for that price or less that I like better but question the strategy.

Am I correct?

[LSB]

Assuming your second Harlan's Holiday foal is big, good looking and mostly correct, I don't think you'll have any problem selling him/her as a yearling whether or not the full sibling has started to race. Many racehorses haven't started yet by Sept. of their 2YO year, and some take a little time to get started. In all likelihood you'll be fine, selling either as a weanling or a yearling, whichever you prefer.

This is a bubble year for Came Home. By the time you would want to sell your hypothetical yearling, he'll have 3YOs racing--enough time for the market to make a judgement about him. So basically, you'd be betting 40K that he's going to succeed as a sire.

[LSB]

Oops, I redid that math. If you breed to Came Home in 2006, he'll have 4YOs running by the time you would want to sell a yearling.

[madelyn]

Also keep in mind that the old saws in the business believed it took at least three tries to prove that the mare/stallion combo was (not) successful. How many times did Secrettame see Mr. Prospector? (6)

The question is are you trying to get a good sales prospect or a good racehorse?

[jagger]

I'm leaning towards commercial but also feel that this will be a good cross with our mare, Lagaylia.

I can only hope that our mare's foal with Harlan's Holiday looks better than him. He is QUITE a bit over at the knee and could be the poster boy for "you don't have to look good, to run good".

I know that 80+ percent of first year sires fizzle, but for a 40k stud fee, Came Home who has a dozen or more foals selling for >100, 2 for >400K, he looks pretty good.

[LSB]

One of the reasons Came Home's results look so good to you is because you only saw his first crop of yearlings sell. First year sires always get a bump at the sales.

By the way, the Harlan's Holidays sold very well--relative to stud fee--too.

[jagger]

LSB

I certainly hope the Harlan's Holiday first crop does well since our mare has already produced one of his colts, which sold for 110K, and is foal to him now. Our mare, Lagaylia, also has a Came Home first crop colt.

Since I've not gotten any response on another thread, what are your thoughts about Dehere's return?

[Timber]

What happened to her Grand Slam filly?

[LSB]

I know that 80+ percent of first year sires fizzle, but for a 40k stud fee, Came Home who has a dozen or more foals selling for >100, 2 for >400K, he looks pretty good.

You're mixing apples and oranges here. 80% of stallions fail, and it has nothing to do with how well their foals sell. It's all about how well they race. If you breed to Came Home now, the industry will have already formed an opinion--good or bad--about his ability at stud by the time you sell. And the prices his offspring bring will reflect that opinion. There are many, many high priced yearlings that do nothing at the track, so the fact that his yearlings sold well is not necessarily an indicator of future success.

By the way, I'm not trying to pick on Came Home--he's a very interesting prospect and in another year, I'd be happy to breed to him myself. I'm just trying to point out the pitfalls of breeding on the bubble.

I've never seen Dehere and I'm afraid I don't know enough about him to have a useful opinion. All I know is that he's produced some very good looking horses.

[LSB]

Another thought...

I just looked up your mare's page in the Nov. book. Her last breeding date in 2005 was June 10th, which means that this year's foal is due mid-May. Unless you manage to get her in foal on her foal heat, next year's foal will be due later than that. A foal born in late May is going to start with a strike against it, commercially.

You might want to consider either giving the mare off to "reset" her date, or perhaps dropping back a bit in stud fee. (For example, I have a good mare who's in foal to Vindication, due May 5th. I wanted to breed her one more time before giving her a year off so we've booked her to Maria's Mon. It's a very good match for the mare, and also less of a risk financially since we're breeding for a late foal.)

[jagger]

I appreciate and understand your input, LSB. I DO understand why stallions fail - that their foals do poorly on the track. I think 20K is a very reasonable stud fee for a proven stallion, 2002 Sire of the Year, sire of sires, and by a 2 time Sire of the Year, Deputy Minister and out of a Secretariat mare. I know that all these statistics may mean nothing but you have to hang your hat on something.

We have suggested to many of our advisors about the late foal and giving her a year off and have been advised against it. Just their oppinion. I favor giving her a year off.

Many are advising us to breed to one of the new, unproven stallions. I understand the arguement for this but I lean towards a proven stallion.

Understanding that you would probably do neither, LSB, do you like Dehere for 20k or Came Home for 40k for our mare Lagaylia.

Again, thanks for your help and apologies for addressing you incorrectly yesterday.

[LSB]

Understanding that you would probably do neither, LSB, do you like Dehere for 20k or Came Home for 40k for our mare Lagaylia.

To answer that question intelligently--as you deserve--I would have to see your mare, and I would have to see Dehere.

But if you remove Lagaylia from the equation and ask hypothetically who would I rather breed to this year, Dehere for 20K or Came Home for 40K, I would choose Dehere.

Two things to think about:
If you choose Came Home, you might have your agent ask for a discount on the fee, considering it's his 4th year. You may not get one, but it can't hurt to try.

I have heard that Dehere had fertility problems and it was one of the reasons he went to Japan--you might want to check on that and see if that "gossip" is right. With a late breeding like the one you're planning, realistically you'll probably only have one shot at getting the mare in foal. Do you want to trust that attempt to a sire with fertility issues?

[LSB]

We have suggested to many of our advisors about the late foal and giving her a year off and have been advised against it. Just their oppinion. I favor giving her a year off.

Well I'm in no position to give you advice about your mare either, really.

But...in this business, advisors come and go. Their word isn't gospel. She's your mare, you should do what you think is best unless someone comes up with a compelling reason for you to do otherwise.

[jagger]

Thanks again, LSB, for your input. I am eager to hear almost all thoughts from anyone more knowledgable than me - which is almost everyone. I weigh all input and TRY to make an informed decision. Understanding, of course, that this is an extremely capricious and fickle enterprise.

I had heard about Dehere's fertility issue from a bloodstock agent at Taylormade. Actually, this might make our decision easier. She either takes the first time or she gets the year off.

Just curious. My wife is a writer and I dabble a bit. Do you?

[LSB]

Just curious. My wife is a writer and I dabble a bit. Do you?

I'm not sure I understand the question, but if you're asking if I write, yes I do. 25 books so far, mostly mystery novels. What do you and your wife write?