$30,000 Stallions

[henthorn]

Brendan, I want to respond to your criticism of the handling of a horse with a respiratory infection.

1. No, you can't always tell a horse is getting sick until he proves it. The first sign is often a dull racing performance.
2. If Afleet Alex truly has a respiratory infection noted on a scope exam, the response and airway reactivity will not resolve within a few days, even with antibiotics that might kill the bacteria. Many of these are not even bacterial infections, but viruses, allergies, etc. Airways remain reactive with extra mucus, swelling, and tightness for several weeks after respiratory infections. Most of the antibiotics are useless, just as they are in human colds.

So I agree that to think of bringing him quickly back to a major Derby prep such as the Arkansas Derby is short-sighted, and the thought of racing in Europe followed by the Derby is ludicrous, as it's too much to ask of any 3yo, especially one who's been recently ill.

[bcassidy]

henthorn---I completely agree. He might not have known that AA was sick going into the race but he stated he was sick after the race--- so to lay out the schedule that he has is incredible to me. Something isn't right and AA will pay the price---what a shame for a great horse. Some trainers and/or owners are so thrilled to even have a start in the Derby that they throw common sense to the wind--- thinking they might not ever have a horse good enough to make it to the dance again. So they do stupid things and rush the horse which always backfires. Look at Unbridled's Song and Toccet to name a few recent disasters. Horses need to be coming into the Derby sitting on huge efforts not limping in after being pushed and rushed too early in their careers. Look at how Pletcher handled Flower Alley, in only his third start the horse runs huge, ( who by the way is by Distorted Humor, who I love, especially on an off track) and looks to be peaking in perfect time for the Derby and TC series. It seems to me the more experienced trainers are letting their horses come into the TC series with much less starts in them. They want fresh horses ready for peak efforts, not run down horses coming off grueling campaigns. This is one significant change I have noticed about Baffert. He no longer pushes his Derby hopefuls as early or as hard. Experience is a great teacher and it is difficult to get young 3 yr olds to stay in peak condition for 5-6 months. It is hard enough to get them in that zone for 1 or 2 races. That's why I think it is so difficult to win the triple crown today.

[bcassidy]

FOS---Here is some data I have already collected and analyzed
Yes It's True offspring: good 1st time out; Very good two year old runners therefore he is precocious;Colts are better than his fillies;Better going short not as good when they go long;not good on the turf; average on off tracks. Very solid stallion---fairly priced at 25K.

Northern Afleet offspring---Very good 1st time out;Very good 2 yr olds so he is very precocious;average off track performers; superior turf performers; equally good at short distances and longer distances;Colts are better than his fillies. His runners average performance numbers as good as the elite stallions. He is doing this with a book of mare that is substantially below the book of mares that the elite stallions are getting. He is one of my lowest stud fees and he gets runners as good as any sire. I rank this stallion as the best value in the country. Incredible value at $12,500. Can't wait to see what his offspring do as his book of mares gets better.

I don't have my analysis complete on Successful Appeal yet but I will get you some of my data very shortly. He is obviously very precocious. I just hope they continue to go on as older horses, maybe a little too early to tell yet but I will let you know as soon as I have the data complete. From what I already know he is good value at 25k, especially if you want a precocious runner. In this range I think Smoke Glacken is comparable value.

But as far as stud fee value is concerned I would rate Northern Afleet the best value because his stud fee is the lowest price of all my top performers.

Here are some other stallions I like in ascending stud fee pricies.


West Acre--good value
Eltish--also good value
Arch--later developing types, good value
Northern Afleet--Best value, as good as anyone
Montbrook--proven stallion, serious runners for only 20K
Successful Appeal--Young, lots of hype
Smoke Glacken--a real sleeper
Menifee--another real sleeper
Distorted Humor---Love this stallion, he will be one of future elite stallisns and at 50k he is great value. I rank him as good as Elusive Quality, not a proven sire of sires yet
Mr Greely--good performance numbers, fair price
Grand Slam----Love this stallion, he can get you a special horse. Fair value
Elusive Quality----Love this stallion but why not breed to Gone West before him?
Gone West---My highest rated stallion and proven sire of sires. Great value at 150k, I would breed to him before Storm Cat or AP Indy. The last two are over priced stallions getting the best mares in the world. How much of their performance is due to the book of mares they cover. Neither is outperforming the mares they are covering.

If Money wasn't an issue I like Gone West the best of all because he is a proven Sire of Sires.
If Money is an issue I like Northern Afleet the best, as I think he is the best value in the country ths year.

There are some other Stallions I like as well but the ones listed above would be my current top picks. I can't wait to see this years first time two year old runners to get a perspective on who is going to out perform the others.

I have been using my system for over 5 years now and it is amazingly accurate. I would put it up against any other method to select stallions that I am aware of. That is why I am not afraid to publish my data for those that are interested on this forum. The only drawback to my system is that the stallion has to have at least one foal crop to race before I can run my numbers. This is because I use the actual racing data of all the offspring to calculate the stallion's breeding value. My calculated numbers can then be compared to other stallion's data to determine which stallion is producing an overall high performing foal. The next steps are to look at the stud fee for the stallion and the CL of the mares he is covering and the picture is amazingly clear. It is hard, quantifiable data not subjective and certainly not skewed by one or two top runners. I am looking for stallions which consistently outproduce their mares racing ability and does it at the lowest possible stud fee. Keep track of my data, I think you will see the Stallions I like will go up in value and the ones I don't will drop in value as I can also tell you which stallions are not producing a consistenty good crop-----one that immediately comes to mind is Malibu Moon. I don't think he is a very solid sire even though everyone is very high on him right now.

I am just tying to help people out on this board by sharing my data. I have no finacial interest in any of these stallions.
Best regards. Brendan

[freddymo]

Your comments are interesting but don't you think you should substantiate your thoughts with some data?

[bcassidy]

freddymo--what kind of data would you like to see? I told you how I calculate the data, I look at the actual racing performances for the stallions runners and boil it down to a set of numbers which will be meaningless to everyone except those that are familiar with my algorithym. I get a series of numbers from 10-50. 10 being the theoretical best, the lower the number the better the stallion. I compare the number calculated in each catagory against another stallions number in the same catogory to analyze the stallion's breeding value. The numbers are broken down into racing years, 2,3, 4,etc; 1st time out, off tracks, sprints, routes, turf races, colts/geldings and filllies. The data is amazingly accurate. Hope this helps.

[Khaled]

Amen to what Halo, KAL, and FOS said. I am glad to see others back Birdstone's victory in the Belmont. I picked Smarty Jones to win the Derby very early in 2004. I was behind him in both his victories, but I had serious reservations about him in the Belmont. I thought that he would have a huge challenge if another horse came prepared for 1.5 miles. Though I do admit that I was not considering Birdstone for the big upset.

After the race, I looked into Birdstone performance. Birdstone was a good NY runner. He seemed to take to the NY tracks over any others (Champagne, Belmont, Travers). Also as I recall, Prado did not have to go to the whip in the Belmont because Birdstone had Smarty beat. He said after the race that he did not have to greatly urge Birdstone because he knew if he kept his pace he would beat Smarty. I think that Birdstone had another gear if push came to shove. If Smarty had found a little more, Birdstone would have still had him beat.

[FOS]

hi Khaled

Thanks for your thoughts and analysis...obviously we are in agreement re: Birdstone's Belmont...

...but regardless...whatever your perspective or position on various thoroughbred-related subjects/issues etc...your honest evaluations...insights...viewpoints...opinions...etc are appreciated.

Something tells me you have a good understanding of the "game" and we might all benefit from your contributions.

Best to you.

Respectfully

[bcassidy]

Khaled, My point exactly, Prado said "I did not have to greatly urge Birdstone because I knew if I kept my pace I would beat Smarty"---that's because Prado is an excellent route jockey and he knew if Stew blew the pace, Smarty could be beaten. As I said in my earlier post, PRADO, Bailey, and Velasquez never would have made the mistake Elliot did, they all ride mile and a half races very regularly--much more than Elliot--- I would venture a guess and say that Elliot might not ride 3-5 mile and half races all year, they are just not that common where Elliot hangs his tack. I am only trying to point out that there are humans involved in these animal's success or failure. Too often the humans get all the credit when an animal does something good but when the animal loses everyone is quick to blame the animal for not being good enough to get the job done. Sometimes it is human error that causes the poor performance. Thanks for engaging in the dialog.
Respectfully Brendan.

[Khaled]

Thanks for the compliments FOS.

bcassidy,

I partially agree with your evaluation of Elliot's ride. I wonder if Elliot knew how fast he was going. The first 10f of the race was in 2:00! That is faster than all but a few of the KY Derby times. You said that Bailey would have never made that mistake. If Elliot had made a mistake than Bailey did, too because his horse Rock Hard Ten was right up there with Smarty at break-neck speed. Of course, RHT also faded down the stretch.

However, I wonder if Elliot really did make a mistake. My premise for this questioning is the reason why he was running so fast. Bailey said before the race that he had to move his horse to the lead to challenge Smarty. If Smarty was allowed the lead, he would run the race to his liking and be very difficult to catch up on the home stretch. So Bailey and Eddington challenged the lead and made Smarty get out of his style.
Smarty was rank and did not like sitting off the pace.

I do not think that Smarty was not diversified in running style sufficiently to calm down and sit off the pace. He was wound up and wanted the lead. Elliot probably would have had to turn Smarty sideways to get him to slow down off the pace. Elliot was left with the choice of having a unrelaxed, rank horse at the finish or give Smarty the lead like he wanted. He decided on trying to let Smarty relax on the lead. I am sure he did not think that such a break neck speed would be required to gain the lead.

I think that there are only 2 ways that Smarty would have won. First if they picked the pace of the race from the onset. Of course, such a scenario is unlikely because others horses are in the race and they all wanted to win, too. Second is if Smarty had more experience or dimension, he would have been comfortable off the lead. Elliot said after the race that he could not get Smarty to relax off the lead. Elliot was working with an extremely talented but slightly undisciplined horse.

[bcassidy]

khaled, I truly believe that Stew had never felt Smarty get tired before the Belmont and he actually felt like Smarty never would get tired--- even at the mile and a half distance. I would call the ride Stew gave Smarty a "very confident ride"--- it was as if Stew was saying---I know I have the best horse ----try and stay with me. Unfortunately, his confidence set up a horrible pace and trip scenario for Smarty. As we have all said in this post--- he not only put away the front runners while going 3 wide but he also still only lost a mile and a half race by two lengths after doing it. A better trip and no one beats him, Elliot learned a big lesson that day as I am sure Desormeaux did on Real Quiet. It happens everyday at race tracks all across the country--only this one happened to be in front of a very big audience and it cost a great horse the TC. Who knows what kind of stud he will turn out to be, if he is anything like his father or grandfather we will not have heard the last from Smarty Jones and that would be just fine with me.
Respectfully Brendan

[bcassidy]

Khaled, to address your other comments about Bailey and Prado, two of the best in the game, (along with about 8 others across the country). Bailey made a decision to contest the pace as he thought this was his best chance to win the race. He certainly didn't want to see a 2.00 minute 10f mark. He could have told you he was cooked well before that time hit the timer but once he was commited to a strategy he had no choice but to stick to it. I am sure he felt this strategy gave his mount the best chance to win, unfortunately he needed a much slower pace to even have a shot, he never got it.
2nd--Yes Stew knew how fast he was going, this is like breathing for them. He was equally commited to a strategy and it didn't work. I don't blame him for picking a strategy but I certainly can blame him for picking a losing strategy. As I said in my previous post, I don't think Stew thought Smarty would get tired even with the pace he set---but he was wrong. This is where I say, that error can not be placed on Smarty---that decision was a human mistake.
3rd---Prado got exactly what he had hoped for--a hot pace that cooked Smarty and set the race up perfectly for his mount. Prado does this all the time, he is a very talented rider who knows how to rate a horse and save ground, both of which are tremendous skills for a mile and a half race. When was the last time you saw Jorge Chavez win a race like this? Chavez would be the total opposite riding style to Prado, early pace, on the lead and get me to the wire first---he is great in sprints but I wouldn't bet him in a route if he was sitting on Secretariat.
My bottom line is, the pace and trip crushed Smarty and set up beautiful for Birdstone and Prado-- A very typical race occurance. It is probably one of the oldest adages in racing--Pace makes the race. Unfortunately, the fast pace cooked Smarty and Elliot felt Smarty get tired for the first time.