HAPPY NEW YEAR!
2013 ended with 2 of Invasor's best performers, Expression and Photon, back in the winner's circle.
A toast to Expression's owner/trainer, Charlton Baker! He's patient, conservative in developing a horse, and places his horses well - here's to a great 2014 for Expression, may she win a stakes and may many more opportunities come Charlton Baker's way.
Photon's new trainer, Chris Englehart, is a top NY trainer who got Photon when he was going off form. Photon just won at 1 1/16 and may be moving into new territory. He was pulling early in the race according to the notes and could improve as he gets used to rating. His heritage from Invasor and damsire Bertrando is certainly worth exploring.
Invasor [ARG]
Moderators: Roguelet, WaveMaster, madelyn
New Year Resolution
Sports are a pyramid, with few athletes at the top. Invasor, HOY in two countries, winner of the Dubai World Cup and rated fastest horse in the world was spectacular. But as a sire he's flawed. Invasor's late developing offspring suffer from a shift in US racing toward horses that are brilliant early and reward buyers quickly. When I told a friend that KD horses are not as fast as older horses that have fewer big races she said: "Why would anyone not prefer to watch the fastest horses race???"
In the US early success sets a horse on the path to stakes races and longer races. Lack of early success keeps them running sprints and miles. An endurance runner in sprints and miles is a Frog Prince that never got kissed, just another frog. There may be several of them because Invasors in Europe win route races. Invasor has also been unlucky that his best progeny didn't finish their careers: Five Sixteen, Mooqtar, and Ausus, a potential champion.
In Europe late development also kept Invasors from participating in the races that lead to big races at three. Mooqtar sparkled in his debut and was spoken of as a Guineas contender but didn't train on due to an unspecified muscle problem. With the Euro Invasors there's always the possibility that they are dirt horses. Adeem, sold after 2 poor turf races at 2 raced on dirt in Sweden and was 6,2,3,0. His wins were at 10f and 12f. In France Golf Juan hates turf and only won once on synthetic, Bodembender was injured, and the filly North Invasion prefers an off track, winning on soft turf at 2200m (10f) and over hurdles on very soft turf at 3300m (16f). In the US only Five Sixteen and Ausus raced longer than 1 1/8! Opportunities have been missed.
It's sad to see Invasor being dissed online as a sire in South America. Really? Candy Stripes, Invasor's sire, produced the same kind of horses as Invasor when he stood in the US but his South American progeny (precocity was not yet king there) were excellent and those that were imported to the US when they were older were very successful - Invasor himself was one of them and Leroidesanimaux (BRZ) was another. In spite of being unsuccessful as a US sire Candy Stripes was welcomed home and given the best mares. After comparing Candy Stripes' first US crop to Invasor's it looks like more missed opportunity.
I've learned a lot about racing as an Invasor fangirl. I started out planning to cheer his TC participants and instead learned how racing has changed since the days of Seattle Slew (my father once called long distance to talk about him). Invasor sires mostly non-precocious horses that can run long and that's unlikely to change. Those horses are out of style. So instead of following all his progeny and getting frustrated I'm going to follow those that do well and/or do something interesting.
In the US early success sets a horse on the path to stakes races and longer races. Lack of early success keeps them running sprints and miles. An endurance runner in sprints and miles is a Frog Prince that never got kissed, just another frog. There may be several of them because Invasors in Europe win route races. Invasor has also been unlucky that his best progeny didn't finish their careers: Five Sixteen, Mooqtar, and Ausus, a potential champion.
In Europe late development also kept Invasors from participating in the races that lead to big races at three. Mooqtar sparkled in his debut and was spoken of as a Guineas contender but didn't train on due to an unspecified muscle problem. With the Euro Invasors there's always the possibility that they are dirt horses. Adeem, sold after 2 poor turf races at 2 raced on dirt in Sweden and was 6,2,3,0. His wins were at 10f and 12f. In France Golf Juan hates turf and only won once on synthetic, Bodembender was injured, and the filly North Invasion prefers an off track, winning on soft turf at 2200m (10f) and over hurdles on very soft turf at 3300m (16f). In the US only Five Sixteen and Ausus raced longer than 1 1/8! Opportunities have been missed.
It's sad to see Invasor being dissed online as a sire in South America. Really? Candy Stripes, Invasor's sire, produced the same kind of horses as Invasor when he stood in the US but his South American progeny (precocity was not yet king there) were excellent and those that were imported to the US when they were older were very successful - Invasor himself was one of them and Leroidesanimaux (BRZ) was another. In spite of being unsuccessful as a US sire Candy Stripes was welcomed home and given the best mares. After comparing Candy Stripes' first US crop to Invasor's it looks like more missed opportunity.
I've learned a lot about racing as an Invasor fangirl. I started out planning to cheer his TC participants and instead learned how racing has changed since the days of Seattle Slew (my father once called long distance to talk about him). Invasor sires mostly non-precocious horses that can run long and that's unlikely to change. Those horses are out of style. So instead of following all his progeny and getting frustrated I'm going to follow those that do well and/or do something interesting.
The AEI of 1.02, CI of 1.67 reflect the fact that Invasor's progeny don't start performing until they are older. To put it another way, if his offspring make their debut late at 3 and don't get good until they are 4 or more he's not improving his mares compared to other stallions they've mated until the 4 yo and 5 yo data comes in. Most stallions produce more precocious offspring.
North Invasion is the first listed stakes runner for Invasor in Europe. She competed in the listed Prix Andre Massena Grande Course de Haies des 4 ans (Great hurdle race for 4 year olds) at Cagnes Sur Mer at 3500m (2 miles & 1.4f) on turf.
She won the qualifying race, a filly only hurdle at 3300m. The Andre Massena is mixed sex race and the favorite was Silver Axe, winner of the male only qualifier and unbeaten over hurdles. North Invasion was the 4th betting choice of 9.
The article and video I found is in French. Here is a recap:
The video opens late in the race after 4 horses were pulled up on the "very heavy" turf. North Invasion leads with Silver Axe a length behind. She's running comfortably, ears forward, loving the heavy turf and flying over the hurdles on the rail. You'll notice that there's standing water next to the rail, just off the track. Approaching the next-to-last hurdle the other 4 horses shift to the outside, Silver Axe moves all the way to the outside rail. After jumping the hurdle North Invasion goes down on one knee, then falls on her side across the track (luckily, there is no other horse near her). Meanwhile, on the outside half of the track, Silver Axe goes down and so does the horse in 3d place, "decapitating the field" as the article puts it. The announcer laments that there are only 2 horses still running, only 2 horses competing for the prize. You can see North Invasion roll (over her jockey), get up, and start to run loose (as the jockey sits up). The other 2 horses, minus their riders, also keep racing. Silver Axe catches up and seems to cross the finish line 2nd. North Invasion does not appear at the end - hard to imagine falling like that and not even pulling a muscle, although she got up and got going. Poor kid, I wouldn't wish a stakes debut like that on anyone.
A longshot filly won - it was her young jockey's first listed win. The 3d betting choice was 2nd and the two last horses to be pulled up got back on the track and finished so as to get 3d & 4th prize money and be officially placed in a listed race. Their distance behind the second place horse is "loin" (far).
Here's the article & video Scroll down to Improbable Massena
http://www.equidia.fr/live/cagnes-sur-m ... demotions/
She won the qualifying race, a filly only hurdle at 3300m. The Andre Massena is mixed sex race and the favorite was Silver Axe, winner of the male only qualifier and unbeaten over hurdles. North Invasion was the 4th betting choice of 9.
The article and video I found is in French. Here is a recap:
The video opens late in the race after 4 horses were pulled up on the "very heavy" turf. North Invasion leads with Silver Axe a length behind. She's running comfortably, ears forward, loving the heavy turf and flying over the hurdles on the rail. You'll notice that there's standing water next to the rail, just off the track. Approaching the next-to-last hurdle the other 4 horses shift to the outside, Silver Axe moves all the way to the outside rail. After jumping the hurdle North Invasion goes down on one knee, then falls on her side across the track (luckily, there is no other horse near her). Meanwhile, on the outside half of the track, Silver Axe goes down and so does the horse in 3d place, "decapitating the field" as the article puts it. The announcer laments that there are only 2 horses still running, only 2 horses competing for the prize. You can see North Invasion roll (over her jockey), get up, and start to run loose (as the jockey sits up). The other 2 horses, minus their riders, also keep racing. Silver Axe catches up and seems to cross the finish line 2nd. North Invasion does not appear at the end - hard to imagine falling like that and not even pulling a muscle, although she got up and got going. Poor kid, I wouldn't wish a stakes debut like that on anyone.
A longshot filly won - it was her young jockey's first listed win. The 3d betting choice was 2nd and the two last horses to be pulled up got back on the track and finished so as to get 3d & 4th prize money and be officially placed in a listed race. Their distance behind the second place horse is "loin" (far).
Here's the article & video Scroll down to Improbable Massena
http://www.equidia.fr/live/cagnes-sur-m ... demotions/
Saint Arthur won a 6f $20,000 5.5f claiming race at Aqueduct as the favorite and was claimed by trainer Linda Rice.
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 14USA1.pdf
Saint Arthur was cleverly and patiently campaigned by his original connections. Unlike Invasor's other US offspring he has sprint speed and was multiple stakes placed at 2. After time off his first race was his worst but he won a stakes in his next. The stakes races were against NY breds so he has the best record of any young Invasor and he'll only get better. (Foaled late April 2010 he won't actually be 4 until April 2014.) After more time off he returned in an AOC which, apparently, was a must-win race. He fought a long, hard speed duel and faded. After that, out of patience, they trolled him for a claim. It will be interesting to see what Linda Rice does with him.
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 14USA1.pdf
Saint Arthur was cleverly and patiently campaigned by his original connections. Unlike Invasor's other US offspring he has sprint speed and was multiple stakes placed at 2. After time off his first race was his worst but he won a stakes in his next. The stakes races were against NY breds so he has the best record of any young Invasor and he'll only get better. (Foaled late April 2010 he won't actually be 4 until April 2014.) After more time off he returned in an AOC which, apparently, was a must-win race. He fought a long, hard speed duel and faded. After that, out of patience, they trolled him for a claim. It will be interesting to see what Linda Rice does with him.
Invasor as a broodmare sire?
Invasor's 1st winner Wonder Of It All was bred at 2 to Bellamy Road "on the southern hemisphere schedule" and put on the market in foal with the dismal result that she sold for $1,500. The buyer was Spring Farm, owned by a vet/breeder in Canada. At least she got good care. If there was a live foal it hasn't showed up on the track that I know of.
Zoila, unraced, has produced a 2012 filly by Majestic Warrior and just sold presumed in foal to Into Mischief. Calumet Farm bought her for $45,000.
Invasor's 1st winner Wonder Of It All was bred at 2 to Bellamy Road "on the southern hemisphere schedule" and put on the market in foal with the dismal result that she sold for $1,500. The buyer was Spring Farm, owned by a vet/breeder in Canada. At least she got good care. If there was a live foal it hasn't showed up on the track that I know of.
Zoila, unraced, has produced a 2012 filly by Majestic Warrior and just sold presumed in foal to Into Mischief. Calumet Farm bought her for $45,000.
Photon raced back at a mile again and was 3d after failing to grind his way to a win. The notes say he rallied mildly and flattened. I say he started grinding but didn't have enough room and the actual milers in the race weren't tired yet. (Last time, at 1 1/16, he won after "a long drive".)
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 14USA1.pdf
Here I am again, yelling that most Invasor "milers" are no such thing. There's no evidence because they don't get to run longer. But here's an interesting comparison between Invasor's half brother Interpret and his half brother Quiros, both sons of Quendom, Invasor's dam.
Interpret, by Distorted Humor, just won the Jebel Ali Stakes (listed) at 10f. Here's a funny article describing the win. I chose it over the more professional Racing Post article because it gives you the flavor of Interpret's long, long drive to the front:
http://www.dubairacenight.com/interpret ... li-stakes/
Here is Interpret's 10 race record. Made his debut at 4, won at 8f, 9f and a stakes at 10f.
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/prof ... /interpret
Interpret developed against easier competition in Dubai but still they waited on him.
Quiros, by Street Cry, raced in the US. He ran once at 2 at 6f at Gulfstream. Next year Michael Matz ran him twice at 1 1/8 at where he finished in the middle of the field. New trainer, shorter races. At a mile he starts going to the front and running out of gas. Dropped into the claiming ranks he finally wins a mile MCL on the front end at Penn National. Here's his 11 race record:
http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Result ... registry=T
Quiros got 2 chances early at 3 to run 1 1/8 at Gulfstream and didn't place. Late development did him in. He became a front running miler now seeking his first win against winners in claiming races. Wrong running style, wrong distance but very like his half brothers and sisters here.
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 14USA1.pdf
Here I am again, yelling that most Invasor "milers" are no such thing. There's no evidence because they don't get to run longer. But here's an interesting comparison between Invasor's half brother Interpret and his half brother Quiros, both sons of Quendom, Invasor's dam.
Interpret, by Distorted Humor, just won the Jebel Ali Stakes (listed) at 10f. Here's a funny article describing the win. I chose it over the more professional Racing Post article because it gives you the flavor of Interpret's long, long drive to the front:
http://www.dubairacenight.com/interpret ... li-stakes/
Here is Interpret's 10 race record. Made his debut at 4, won at 8f, 9f and a stakes at 10f.
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/prof ... /interpret
Interpret developed against easier competition in Dubai but still they waited on him.
Quiros, by Street Cry, raced in the US. He ran once at 2 at 6f at Gulfstream. Next year Michael Matz ran him twice at 1 1/8 at where he finished in the middle of the field. New trainer, shorter races. At a mile he starts going to the front and running out of gas. Dropped into the claiming ranks he finally wins a mile MCL on the front end at Penn National. Here's his 11 race record:
http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Result ... registry=T
Quiros got 2 chances early at 3 to run 1 1/8 at Gulfstream and didn't place. Late development did him in. He became a front running miler now seeking his first win against winners in claiming races. Wrong running style, wrong distance but very like his half brothers and sisters here.
Intriguing Debut
Holy Wildcat was written up on a Spanish speaking blog, because his exercise rider told the poster Pletcher was delighted with him. Said his time wasn't that fast but he has a long stride that eats up ground. Pletcher? Invasors aren't his kind of horse. Pletcher likes them precocious and fast, fast, fast.
Holy Wildcat is making his debut Jan 25 at Gulfstream in an MSW at a mile on dirt. A mile instead of a sprint, that's good. The owners are Ken & Sarah Ramsey (Kitten's Joy) and the jockey is Javier Castellano so there are expectations. But this is a dirt race. Could Pletcher be thinking Belmont? Only a handful of Invasors win their debut - enjoy the anticipation.
http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/GP ... html#RACE6
http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Result ... registry=T
Holy Wildcat was written up on a Spanish speaking blog, because his exercise rider told the poster Pletcher was delighted with him. Said his time wasn't that fast but he has a long stride that eats up ground. Pletcher? Invasors aren't his kind of horse. Pletcher likes them precocious and fast, fast, fast.
Holy Wildcat is making his debut Jan 25 at Gulfstream in an MSW at a mile on dirt. A mile instead of a sprint, that's good. The owners are Ken & Sarah Ramsey (Kitten's Joy) and the jockey is Javier Castellano so there are expectations. But this is a dirt race. Could Pletcher be thinking Belmont? Only a handful of Invasors win their debut - enjoy the anticipation.
http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/GP ... html#RACE6
http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Result ... registry=T
Past Performances for Holy Wildcat MSW
Pletcher shows why he's such a successful trainer: he really knows how to pick races and he's in every race to win. Pletcher chose a mile to get slower fractions and use Holy Wildcat's ground-eating stride, with a fast work ahead of the race so he doesn't run too far back early. The speed figures for non-maidens in Holy Wildcat's MSW are very low. Look at the notes in the past performances, it's a winnable race. The trainers of other Invasors were experimenting and ran them in MSWs with horses like Graydar and Street Life who moved right on to stakes races. Pletcher wants a win at Gulfstream, and, just in case, he has another entry.
Past performances for Holy Wildcat debut.
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewe ... am3=857964
Past performances for Holy Wildcat debut.
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewe ... am3=857964
Holy Wildcat raced in 7th while his stablemate set the pace under pressure. Turning for home a new leader took over and Holy Wildcat made his move in tandem with the favorite. They circled the field with Holy Wildcat widest of all (5w) to challenge but the leader held on with Holy Wildcat still gaining slowly in second and the favorite in 3d. Holy Wildcat ran farther than the winner and he ran well - a good debut! Looking forward to his next.
You can watch the race here:
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/ ... on-1-25-14
Here's the chart:
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 14USA6.pdf
You can watch the race here:
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/ ... on-1-25-14
Here's the chart:
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 14USA6.pdf
PARTY! Kollos won at a mile&70 by a widening 4 1/2 lengths. It's his second victory.
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 14USA1.pdf
I'm excited because many of Invasor's progeny stop racing after not winning after a few races. I thought the connections didn't know what to do with old fashioned late developing, made for distance, horses. So I followed the few that kept racing. Kollos, a sprinter cross, is a favorite. I nicknamed him Kollos the Komet because he loves the lead but flamed out and lost by double digits many times. I identify with his owner/trainer who is as passionate about his horses as he is about racing. Gennadi Dorochenko is going to stand his best, Hero of Order, himself and he's been patient with Kollos who won his first race at 4 (at a mile by 7 lengths). If I owned horses it wouldn't be all business & efficiency. I'd fall for the horses as individuals and get enormous satisfaction out of their victories.
Kollos just turned 5 and hasn't kicked his stall door down and emerged as Invasor yet. He's running in low level claimers. But he keeps improving while others lose a step and the improvement may be accelerating...
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 14USA1.pdf
I'm excited because many of Invasor's progeny stop racing after not winning after a few races. I thought the connections didn't know what to do with old fashioned late developing, made for distance, horses. So I followed the few that kept racing. Kollos, a sprinter cross, is a favorite. I nicknamed him Kollos the Komet because he loves the lead but flamed out and lost by double digits many times. I identify with his owner/trainer who is as passionate about his horses as he is about racing. Gennadi Dorochenko is going to stand his best, Hero of Order, himself and he's been patient with Kollos who won his first race at 4 (at a mile by 7 lengths). If I owned horses it wouldn't be all business & efficiency. I'd fall for the horses as individuals and get enormous satisfaction out of their victories.
Kollos just turned 5 and hasn't kicked his stall door down and emerged as Invasor yet. He's running in low level claimers. But he keeps improving while others lose a step and the improvement may be accelerating...
Twenty in One made her debut in a mile MSW at Gulfstream and finished 3d of 8 on a sloppy (sealed) track. (The other filly making her debut finished last, beaten 33 lengths. The first time runners were the only ones to run without Lasix dehydration so they were carrying about 10 lbs more.) The filly who finished 4th was a cousin with a great name: Laurendesanimaux.
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 14USA8.pdf
Successful Brothers finished 2nd of 11 as the favorite at a mile on the same sloppy (sealed) track in a $25,000 MCL. The winner got loose on the lead and Successful Brothers couldn't catch him although he finished 8 1/2 lengths ahead of the rest.
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 14USA6.pdf
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 14USA8.pdf
Successful Brothers finished 2nd of 11 as the favorite at a mile on the same sloppy (sealed) track in a $25,000 MCL. The winner got loose on the lead and Successful Brothers couldn't catch him although he finished 8 1/2 lengths ahead of the rest.
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 14USA6.pdf
Holy Invader's 2 worst races were at Aqueduct where he was way back in the field at 1/4 and lost by double digits. Does he hate the track? NO. That's good news.
Holy Invader finished 1st of 12 by 1 3/4 in a 1 1/16 mile race at Aqueduct for his new connections. It was his 6th victory.
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 14USA7.pdf
It began like his 2 other Aqueduct races: toward the rear at 1/4 but ended with a hand-ridden win. What made the difference? Holy Invader used to win when he was near the front by 1/4, otherwise not. I thought he didn't like dirt in his face (one reason he likes turf). Today his jockey let him hang back, then took him five wide and Holy Invader started to run. My guess: no more dirt in his face. It also helped that he had extra distance and the competition wasn't as strong. But he certainly got a very cool headed ride!
Holy Invader finished 1st of 12 by 1 3/4 in a 1 1/16 mile race at Aqueduct for his new connections. It was his 6th victory.
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 14USA7.pdf
It began like his 2 other Aqueduct races: toward the rear at 1/4 but ended with a hand-ridden win. What made the difference? Holy Invader used to win when he was near the front by 1/4, otherwise not. I thought he didn't like dirt in his face (one reason he likes turf). Today his jockey let him hang back, then took him five wide and Holy Invader started to run. My guess: no more dirt in his face. It also helped that he had extra distance and the competition wasn't as strong. But he certainly got a very cool headed ride!