Giant's Causeway and the dirt, take 2!

Discussion and analysis of thoroughbred stallions.

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Coquinerie
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Postby Coquinerie » Tue Aug 30, 2005 10:26 am

Although I agree with much of what you're saying about fee @ 200k, i'd like to know how you came to the conclusion that Giant's Causeway was bred to the best book of mares in history... His CI is below that of Fusaichi Pegasus and the more established (heralded and expensive) sires... im not arguing he had a book of top quality, im just trying to figure out what makes this book so much better than everyone else's (in history, your words not mine) in your opinion also keeping in mind that since you've been saying this, his book hasnt been much bigger than say Fupeg's?

I think instead of jumping up and down proclaiming failure, give his first US-bred crop a chance to excell on the dirt. Maybe he's not a "dominant" stallion, but saying that doesnt make sense when you say something like he had around "40 north american" mares (im sure you were implying with dirt pedigrees or records) but that his get seems to only do their best running on the turf... seems like if this holds true, he is more "dominant" than you suggest...

But again, I do believe he is over priced at this time... im a firm believer that the best values at stud stand for under 30k, often well under, and can get you a Classics horse as well as anything else you seek from them.

freddymo
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Postby freddymo » Tue Aug 30, 2005 11:41 am

FOS those a nice list of stakes winners.. Candy Stripes is his countries number one stallion. Go try and get a season to DH at 60K because they most likely are selling for 75ish as his book is full. ANET PLEASE.. Northern Afleet is 25k was 15k and most likely full and if you need a season you most likely have to pay at least 35k. The best mares are going to GC because he represents the best option to SC period. You might care to mention GC success's as they are bordering on unprecented from 2 crops. I will give you the mares are nice but the stallion is without question the goods. They can win early on all surfaces and have speed and stamina. These are not plodders they are runners with stamina. The auction rings and big time racing families are lining up for GC because of his dominance. 200k is a bargin as he will be 500 within 5 years Book full and closed. Giacomo o slow you must be kidding.

freddymo
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Postby freddymo » Tue Aug 30, 2005 12:10 pm

Coquinerie you make a great point as GC'S book was as good but no better then many of the top tier stallions.. Go look at Empire Makers book or Sadlers Well. Mineshaft saw a great grouping as well. GC can not be bred to SC broodies or his son's obviously so those gal's have to go elsewhere.

Sam
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Postby Sam » Tue Aug 30, 2005 12:12 pm

freddymo wrote:200k is a bargin as he will be 500 within 5 years Book full and closed.

Are you willing to bet on that?

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Postby freddymo » Tue Aug 30, 2005 12:36 pm

It would be a mortal lock if SC would to pass on as GC would become the clearly most logical SC sucessor. Another crop like the last couple and this guy is going up again and not 25 or 50K. To answer your question if SC is closed down GC is 500 booked full and closed. NO QUESTION ASKED WITH A LINE AROUND THE BLOCK!

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Postby Sam » Tue Aug 30, 2005 1:00 pm

freddymo wrote:It would be a mortal lock if SC would to pass on as GC would become the clearly most logical SC sucessor. Another crop like the last couple and this guy is going up again and not 25 or 50K. To answer your question if SC is closed down GC is 500 booked full and closed. NO QUESTION ASKED WITH A LINE AROUND THE BLOCK!

and again I say, are you willing to bet on it?

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adrienne
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Postby adrienne » Tue Aug 30, 2005 3:11 pm

I was just thinking today - this may be a random though...

Even IF GC is a failure and even IF his connections are getting worried... I can't possibly see any good business person drop his stud fee.

I mean, what kind of confidence does that instill in your customers? How would your current customers like you feeding lack of confidence into the auction market?

I guess that's the danger in setting a stud fee so optimistically high. Generally your customers don't mind you raising a stud fee - but dropping it is going to cause a lot more trouble!

~Adrienne

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Postby austique » Tue Aug 30, 2005 3:28 pm

Good point Adrienne. The only way they can drop it is if he really flounders next year both at the sales and on the track which he's not going to do. Plus, he's got the added cushion of the Coolmore spin machine. I think he's overpriced right now, but I think this early in his career the market will at least partially bear the price on optimism alone. It will be interesting to see how the aggressive pricing plays out over the next couple of years.

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FOS
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Postby FOS » Tue Aug 30, 2005 10:35 pm

hi freddymo

You originally wrote "Geez its not about the frogs it's about the stars even if the percentages don't add up. If you want the best it costs."

freddymo...I attempted to list every North American graded stakes-winner winner from this past weekend...and who they were sired by (and the stud fee). That list is in response to what you wrote "If you want the best it costs.". Clearly the list confirms that it's not necessary to spend a fortune (as you imply) on a stud fee to breed a top racehorse.

In response you wrote...for starters (and I quote) "FOS those a nice list of stakes winners.. Candy Stripes is his countries number one stallion." You disappoint me freddymo...you make it sound like Candy Stripes is something that we all missed out on. Maybe so...but if you recall...he was a Taylor Made flop...then moved to Florida...he didn't seem to inspire many breeders there either...Ouch. I'd be surprised (as his stock plummeted) if you had to spend more than US$5,000+- (probably less is reality) to breed to him.

You then seem to speak with authority when you wrote "Go try and get a season to DH at 60K because they most likely are selling for 75ish as his book is full."

Respectfully freddymo...I'll tell you the FACT...you could get a season to him for $60k anytime this season. He was definitely NOT oversubscribed. I suggest he is a lot of horse and arguably excellent value at $60k (despite what might be described as surprising ease to get a season to him at the farm price). Foal shares were a possibility also. freddymo...respectfully...it sounds like you're pulling some of your comments out of thin air (as in the case of Distorted Humor)...and offering them as fact...when they are not...hmmm.

Then you wrote re: Anet "ANET PLEASE". Is that intended to demean Anet? He may not be fancy or particularly successful or high-priced but the FACT is he sired the G1-Ballerina Stakes winner Happy Ticket this weekend...and was a $5k stud fee. Again...you make the case that it's NOT necessary to spend much on a stud fee to get a TOP racehorse. Completely the opposite of your stated position that "Geez its not about the frogs it's about the stars even if the percentages don't add up. If you want the best it costs."

You then wrote "Northern Afleet is 25k was 15k and most likely full and if you need a season you most likely have to pay at least 35k." FACT is he was $12,500 (not $15k as you stated) and a LOAD of breeders (many commercial) bred to him at that number...$12,500. Certainly his stud fee'll move up for 2006...speculation is $25k-$30k...but I suggest he is well worth the money. And he has a dual classic winner in Afleet Alex (as you know he won the Preakness and Belmont) from his first 115 foals (the total of his first three crops). You might agree...quite an accomplishment when you consider the following...Giant's Causeway's first North American crop alone numbered 137 (and the quality of mares that Northern Afleet was bred to might be described as paltry compared to those bred to GC...and GC's 2005 stud fee was approx 16 times that of Northern Afleet's 2005 stud fee (for what it's worth, NA's stud fee was $5,000+- at the time Afleet Alex was conceived).

You offered "The best mares are going to GC because he represents the best option to SC period." Maybe so if those mare owners are willing to accept the high probability of getting a physical lightweight...or if breeders have the appropriate physical-powerhouse mare that will hopefully dominate and get them something special. Storm Cat and Giant's Causeway DO NOT (in general) get the same type of foals. In general it's powerhouse (SC) vs lightweight (GC)...hmmm.

You then wrote "I will give you the mares are nice but the stallion is without question the goods." freddymo...if "nice" is how you honestly describe GC's mares...respectfully...it sounds like you're uninformed (not intended to be inflammatory...but I suggest that a serious look at the pedigrees (catalogue-style might be best) of the mares in his books might offer you a better understanding of what he was bred to...WOW...(for example...GC's daughter My Typhoon [the world's highest priced weanling filly ever sold at auction...approx US$3mil] is out of an arc winner that produced G1-English Derby and G1-Irish Derby winner and champion Galileo etc etc...WOW again). "...The mares are nice" (your words) is a serious understatement (from my perspective anyway). Take a look at GC's books...you might be surprised...no, overwhelmed might be a better description.

You wrote "These are not plodders they are runners with stamina." Maybe so...but I suggest that if you want stamina (at the highest level) and value, you might want to consider Montjeu...now there's a source of stamina...and if I might add, outstanding value at E45,000+-(Euros).

I suggest you make my case freddymo...it is not necessary to spend $200k for a stud fee to get a TOP horse. The proof is in the pudding...although you seem to want to ignore that. With that in mind...I again list some (if not all) of this past weekends North American graded stakes-winners...and their sire's recent stud fees...

1/ the G1-Ballerina S...won by Happy Ticket (sire Anet...$5,000 stud fee)

2/ the G1-Hopeful...won by First Samurai (sire Giant's Causeway...$200,000 stud fee)

3/ the G1-Del Mar Debutante...won by Wild Fit (sire Wild Wonder...$5,000 stud fee)

4/ the G1-King's Bishop...won by Lost In The Fog (sire Lost Soldier...$7,500 stud fee)

5/ the G1-Travers...won by Flower Alley (sire Distorted Humor...$60,000 stud fee)

6/ the G1-Personal Ensign...won by Shadow Cast (sire Smart Strike...$25,000 stud fee)

7/ the G2-Spinaway...won by Adieu (sire El Corredor...$20,000 stud fee)

8/ the G2-Del Mar H...won by Leprechaun Kid (sire Alphabet Soup...$20,000 stud fee)

9/ the G2-Fourstardave H...won by Leroidesanimaux[BRZ] (sire Candy Stripes...stud fee unknown...but probably not much)

10/ the G3-Can-Canadian Derby ($250,000)...won by Alabama Rain (sire Vying Victor...Can$5,000 stud fee).

And again...what about this year's classic winners...

1/ the G1-Ky Derby-won by Giacomo (sire Holy Bull...$15,000 stud fee)

2/ the G1-Preakness-won by Afleet Alex (sire Northern Afleet...$12,500 stud fee)

3/ the G1-Belmont-won by Afleet Alex (sire Northern Afleet...$12,500 stud fee)

freddymo...again in response to what you wrote ("Geez its not about the frogs it's about the stars even if the percentages don't add up. If you want the best it costs.") I offer...it's not necessary to spend $200k today on a stud fee to get a graded stakes winner...even a G1 winner. The proof is in the pudding...you might agree...no "frogs" (your word) above.

If you like Giant's Causeway...I suggest go for it.

Whatever your choices might be in the world of thoroughbreds...I suggest beware of overhype and/or deception etc...(you might agree...facts and thorough, honest and complete information are always valuable...heresay and misinformation etc can be dangerous) and flying by the seat of one's pants (unless money is no object) can be costly...beware potential Enron-like stock.

I hope that you (and all that put up their money) do well in the world of thoroughbreds...this is a very tough game...and I suggest it's not getting easier.

Best to you.

Respectfully

freddymo
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Postby freddymo » Wed Aug 31, 2005 1:35 pm

Lets talk about your Post for a moment. Candy Stripes has produced 2 special animals not just ordinary grade 1 winners. There are Grade 1 races in name only. Afleet Alex is a very nice animal and I would sure love to own him, but that is not the point the point is he is a fair to midland grade 1 winner. He is beating maybe the worst looking 3 year old crop in a while. HE lost to Giacomo who may never win a grade 2 again never mind a grade 1! Distorted Humor is a nice sort and 49er has emerged finally as a sires sire. I like him as much as you do ,but he was not available at 60K in April or May of last year. Maybe if you had a mare that they wanted but not any mare at 60k. Anet is not a sire that can be deemed as a Grade 1 producer. Yes Crappy Ticket beat a ok group of 4 year olds ,but is Pleasant Home really that strong of a mare. I love Shug and Pleasant Home is a regally bred filly ,but she is best at a mile and she has never Beyered over 95 WHOA!

Northern Afleet is a super nice outcross and I will never argue against his merit. You might consider that the Nick with Maggy Hawk just maybe perfect . Is Wild Wonder your next super stallion now that to full sib's have achieved some nice things including a grade 1 victory against a group of vermin at Delmar.

Ask yourself why GC got the mares that he did? Was he so special on the track? If his foals are so weak how are they winning group and grade 1's left and right. His "B" team is special.

Please if you are going to mention Giacomo, Leprechaun kid, Vying Victor, please at least qualify it to what they are which is nice horses that fit into a race and won. None of any of the horses I listed can individually increase much interest in there sire. Holy Bull a wonder race horse is a bust. I like Alaphet Soup and hope he starts to see a bit better as his speed influence is interesting.

If you bred 80 to Anet and spent 400k your ROI would be better IMO breeding 2 to GC

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Postby llbean » Wed Aug 31, 2005 2:25 pm

Anet has sired a GIW and you say he shouldn't be called a GI Producer??

What kind of selective and non-sensical distortion of the evidence is that??

Afleet Alex only a fair to middling GIW???? Hmmm....

I suppose Noble Causeway is an example of a higher level GIW, eh?

Wait a minute! Not only did Noble Causeway get crushed by Afleet Alex, he hasn't even won a Stakes Race, much less a GI...

-llbean

Sam
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Postby Sam » Wed Aug 31, 2005 2:55 pm

llbean wrote:Anet has sired a GIW and you say he shouldn't be called a GI Producer??

What kind of selective and non-sensical distortion of the evidence is that??

Afleet Alex only a fair to middling GIW???? Hmmm....

I suppose Noble Causeway is an example of a higher level GIW, eh?

Wait a minute! Not only did Noble Causeway get crushed by Afleet Alex, he hasn't even won a Stakes Race, much less a GI...

-llbean

Why are you trying to use logic against an (in this case) illogical person?

I was going to respond to that last post (in my patented fashion) but figured it just wasn't worth it ... more amusing to just watch the trainwreck

halo
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Postby halo » Wed Aug 31, 2005 4:42 pm

The bottom line is, people are breeding to Giants Causeway because he is getting a top level horse. Whether you want to believe it or not, whether you want to skew his figures to make your huffing and puffing look better, the fact is he has 8 horses that have won or placed in graded or group races. Thats what people who are breeding to him are looking for. He's already gotten a champion oversees. Its not beyond the realm of possibilities that he could have a champion this year here in the U.S.

As far as listing horses who have won recent graded stakes here in the U.S., you don't have to go back too many weeks to find the Hopeful winner, or the first and 2nd place runners in the Grade 2 Lake Placid at Saratoga, by Giants Causeway. Actually that list is laughable and as usual, totally out of context, because there's not a single second crop sire on it.

Just wait for the Keeneland Sale and you'll see what people think of Giants Causeway.

freddymo
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Postby freddymo » Thu Sep 01, 2005 7:15 am

Because a sire has a grade 1 winner does it mean that you can distinguish that stallion as a grade/group 1 material sire. People understand I realize Crappy Ticket won the Ballerina. Is Our Embelm a true grade 1 producer because War Embelm stole a couple of races.HMM

As for Alex, with out being disrespectful the colt is not a special horse. When you think of Alex or watch him run you know he is a tough SOB and comes to work everytime but he lost to Giacomo. Special horse and losing to Giacomo(jack o slow) is a tough one to argue.

Halo has is right Keeneland is coming in a few weeks and GC will dominant the high end. BECAUSE HE HAS THE MOST group and graded winners not Smart Strike, not Northern Afleet and his super nick to Maggie Hawk, not the grade 1 machine Anet . Another thing you gents are missing. The buzz on the backstretch is that most of the GC's show talent (substantial) and even the ones that don't make it to the races only disappointed because they got hurt or sick not that they were Frogs.

Is Afleet Alex really in the same league talent wise as a "remarkably gifted" Bellamy Road. Perhaps you think Flower Alley is a better/ more talented animal then BR... HMMM lol maybe Giacomo is a better horse then Bellamy Road since he plodded to victory in the Derby hmmm.
As for Noble Causeway he is clearly a "B" team GC and that is good enough to compete against the mightest of Holly Bull and Smart Strikes of the world. hmm

Maybe Lost Soldier is the new Mr. P Maybe Wild Wonder could just have 1 foal every year from the same mare then his stats would look great. Maybe the Farish family is all wrong maybe the top broodies should be sent the the Grade 1 machine Smart Strike instead of Mambo and Indy. Maybe we should ask the Coolmore folks if there is a spot on the roster for the Mighty Anet now that Crappy Ticket beat Pleasant Home who was racing at 7f's when she wants 8f's (PH has never beyered in triple digits)

I always respect others thoughts but lets not have stud fee's dicate your opinion. GC is the sucessor to Storm Cat and already has established himself in 2 crops as the most exciting new sire since.........YOU fill in the BLANK HMMM.

Respectfully