Stallion Value: Biggest BANG for the BUCK

[George William Smith]

Freddymo wrote, "George comparing FuPeg to Smart Strike? Why? If you want to compete at the highest level then I think you want the best chance to attain success. If success is Graded or Group 1 and 2 wins then the money is not pertinent. If success is defined as a horse that cost 65k at Keeneland and becomes a 250,000 earner over 3 years of racing then Smart Strike is the right guy for the job, and there is a huge place for that horse in racing. I respectfully submit that there will be a hell of a lot more starters from FuPeg in the Group 1 and Grade 1 races then Smart Strikes. Even at Woodbine LOL"

Why? Simply because FuPeg is perceived now to be a stallion with the real goods. Therefore, I was comparing a stallions with the real goods "Smart Strike" with one that many in the industry perceive to have the real goods. Unfortunately, the jury is still well out with Fu Peg and in my HUMBLE OPINION that he is by no means proved that he has the real goods. You, of course are perfectly entitled to you own opinion.

There is substance to what you say if one looks back to Smart Strike's start at stud [could this be the source of Smart Strikes current fashionability status being inferior to FuPeg?].

At the time the stallion registers are done for the Blood-Horse here's how the 2 compare for their first crop.

Smart Strike 54 named foals, 35% runners, 9% winners, 3.7% SW's
Fu Peg 80 named foals, 34% runners, 15% winners, 5% SW's

We now know that the Smart Strike's trained on. According to the 2005 stallion register Smart Strikes 1st crop is now 56 named foals, 77% runners, 61% winners, 20% 2yo winners [which means that Smart Strike had 6 more winners in his first crop after the Stallion Register's data was compiled], and 17.9% SW's!!!!

FuPeg's got a lot to do to match that and if he does, more power to him.

Interesting that Smart Strikes 10 SW's in his first crop are a Champion Older Mare in Puerto Rico, G1 winner in Japan, G3 winner in Canada, G3 winner in US, 4SW's in US, 2 in Canada

FuPegs foals have a dam index of 4.22 and have already got one Group 2 winner [to when the stallion register was produced] and Smart Strike had none with a dam index of 3.46 yet.

And in a nifty aside, my friend who has the results of every group or graded race and every pedigree of every horse in every one of them analyzed states that the hardest Group/Graded races to win are the Group 3/Graded at the smaller tracks. [North America only].

Thanks for getting my brain engaged

[freddymo]

Interesting #'s but again percentage winners are as much a product of who is racing them and where? A 3/4mil dollar FuPeg 2 year old will not be found racing in a 32k maiden claiming event at Mountaineer or winning those type of races. A SS can and will. There is no need to win with a FuPeg filly in such a race her value is not the purse structure. The people that own "their likes" could care less. This is not the case with a 48k book 5(keeneland sept) Smart Strike filly. Let the #'s speak but make sure to Curb There Enthusiasm. Brillance is easy to spot on the race track and I have seen some brillance with FuPeg's. Roman Ruler, Fu Samari showed brillance. Smart Strike has shown some______ NICE STUFF? No Disrespect to SmartStrike but your to astute a guy to compare the 2. Ask Drysdale, Mott, Frankel, Lukas, Pletcher,or Mandella what they want for christmas? FuPeg or Smart Strike? By the way I thought very little of FuPeg as a racehorse. What about Empire Maker?

[George William Smith]

Let experience speak now to you Freddymo [thirty plus years researching stallions and separating truth from fiction or belief]. It will be then your choice to listen or hope. I have seen many, MANY stallions with the comparable pedigree and race record of FuPeg and first year results he obtained and very FEW that have achieved already what Smart Strike has done so the odds are very much against FuPeg, whether trained by Baffert or Gerald Smuck and owned by Phipps or Hertha Burnbottom.

It must be noted, however, that comments such as yours enables the myth that FuPeg is a better stallion than Smart Strike and this just is just not true. He may end up to be his equal or may be better, it is not yet and not likely to be. Heavens forbid that Smart Strike get even better. Yikes.

Are you sure you don't have a FuPeg season to sell?

[freddymo]

If I had a mare worthy of FuPeg I would not sell the season for twice the fee 150K. In 3 years 150k will be the dream. Fupeg is the next dominant sire Coolmore will attend to that. You can see it coming from a mile away. I really am troubled that you have not seen the future. As I get older the Modern breed get further away from what I thought it should be. Perhaps the experience is starting to work against you. Not being disrespectful

[louis finochio]

Lets compare the following stats on AEI vs STUD FEE.

SMART STRIKE AEI 2.67 % of SW 10 FEE 35,000

KINGMAMBO 2.75 10 300,000

DISTORTED HUMOR 2.65 10 60,000

GULCH 2.13 8 50,000

GONE WEST 2.22 10 150,000

Smart Strike still seems like a bargain at 35,000, after your compare the stats from above.

[roving boy]

Inish Glora - I don't know where in China, but they sold him well from what I hear. Interesting how China and Russia are opening up for Thoroughbreds...

[bcassidy]

Smart Strike comes up with a very good if not excellent rating in my privately devised system which evaluates a stallion's racing offspring. (a very qualitative approach to evaluate a stallion). I have never seen him in person so I cannot comment on his confirmation, but if I wanted to fault him for anything it would have to be his book of mares. I believe he has had a chance to get to some very good mares and while his offspring run very well, I have to wonder how much of that credit belongs to the mares he was bred to and not his sire power. His foals love an off track, winning above 25% of their off track starts---a very good %. Bet his offspring big on an off track.
I think he is overpriced at 35k. I personally love Northern Afleet at 12,500, Smoke Glacken at 25-30K, and Montbrook at 20K. 35K is top price for him, I predict he will be priced lower in the future while the other three I mentioned will be higher. Why would I breed to him vs these other stallions if I believe that to be the case??? Just food for thought, as always I would like to hear comments on my opinions.

[louis finochio]

Taking a curve of Smart Strike's mares, on a scale of 1-10, I would rate them a 5. If Smart Strike had the book of mare's that Fug. Peg. had, then his % of SW would be higher plus his AEI would be elevated.
Smart Strike's AEI is 2.67 CL is 2.19 these figures were put up by the mare's that I rated a 5.

Being a young sire Smart Strike will attract better mares in his future crops, as the breeders will notice his superior runners are doing the job with medicore mares.

[Michael D.]

have you taken a look at lion hearted. saw a really fast one run for baffert over the w/e in a stakes (didn't run too well). also saw one dominate a rather weak stks race this w/e at aqu. $5g now, that won't last long though.

[kimberley mine]

This whole discussion can be boiled down to the following question:

Does Smart Strike meet the rules for being "fashionable?"

*Early-maturing, tall, pretty yearlings
*Tons of speed at 2, even if they don't train on
*Tall and pretty
*KY Derby winner
*Tons of hype, a flash of brilliance, and early retirement

Probably not. Although Smart Strike himself is elegant and the class of his sire and dam are showing through, if his yearlings always hit the sales when they're in that teenage-horse-awkward period, well, enough said. On the flip side, those non-commercial but solid horses are what keep home breeders in business. He's a bit steep for the average homebreeder, but with a nice mare I suspect Lane's End is willing to bargain.

[George William Smith]

Fupeg is the next dominant sire Coolmore will attend to that. You can see it coming from a mile away."

I can't at this stage in his career and only the future will determine whether that was an accurate assessment or my myopic problem be it Coolmore or wherever.

"I really am troubled that you have not seen the future. "

Yeah that really bothers me too, I missed so many good opportunities.

"As I get older the Modern breed get further away from what I thought it should be."

I AGREE wholeheartedly!!!!!!!!!!!!!

"Perhaps the experience is starting to work against you."

There is a difference between being an old fuddy duddy and diligently serious.

"Not being disrespectful

Not for one second do I think you are being disrepectful. This is how we all learn and grow. Thanks for the honesty of your argument. Hopefully, we can agree to disagree.

[George William Smith]

I personally love Northern Afleet at 12,500, Smoke Glacken at 25-30K, and Montbrook at 20K. 35K is top price for him, I predict he will be priced lower in the future while the other three I mentioned will be higher. Why would I breed to him vs these other stallions if I believe that to be the case??? Just food for thought, as always I would like to hear comments on my opinions.

All of these have done very well at stud so you have discerned out good value if you have the right mare. Well done.

[George William Smith]

This whole discussion can be boiled down to the following question:

Does Smart Strike meet the rules for being "fashionable?"

*Early-maturing, tall, pretty yearlings
*Tons of speed at 2, even if they don't train on
*Tall and pretty
*KY Derby winner
*Tons of hype, a flash of brilliance, and early retirement

Probably not. Although Smart Strike himself is elegant and the class of his sire and dam are showing through, if his yearlings always hit the sales when they're in that teenage-horse-awkward period, well, enough said. On the flip side, those non-commercial but solid horses are what keep home breeders in business. He's a bit steep for the average homebreeder, but with a nice mare I suspect Lane's End is willing to bargain.

Kimberly I don't know where to start on your posting. But you left off by far the most important ingredient to fashionable? Who owns the stallion and what breeders send their mares to the stallion. Only really small foals with legs pointing North, South, East, West, would keep protected stallions from staying fashjionable through their third year.

I would also like to disagree with your assumptions to fashionability but I lack the strength. My fault not yours.

[freddymo]

Louis your stats are well reseached and thought out...

When Kingmambo gets a stakes horse 2. whatever percent of the time. The stake is extremely influential.. Not a grade 3 at Praire Meadows(no disrespect meant)

When Dist Humor(who I could never breed to at these #) gets a stake horse its also typically something of great achievement.

Gone West some believe to be the foundation for the Modern Breed(whatever that means) and his stakes winners only go on to sire champions of legendary proportions

This is why his 2. whatever % translates to multiples of Smart Strike fees.

But if the good Mr. Farish has anything to say about it and he does Smart Strike fans will be seeing plenty of solid winners in the future.

I just perfer others like War Chant.. Lemon drop...Seeking.. Danzig etc

My feeling is that War chant.. Lemon.. Fu Peg.. El Prado Giants will replace Storm cat. Mambo Indy and Wells within 3 years as the domiant sires in the sport.. Most of this years crop 04 2years have been really handsome fine gait animals. I have not seen 1 war chant in the Paddock at Spa, Belmont Santa Anita that I have thought highly of and they can run!

[kimberley mine]

I would also like to disagree with your assumptions to fashionability but I lack the strength. My fault not yours.

For the record, I was being facetious. I think Smart Strike is a good buy, and am generally amused and appalled in equal turns by the rules of "fashionable" in the market.