Next Great Sire?

[bcassidy]

Michael. you make some excellent points, but when you also factor in Stud fee and future potential, I think Northern Afleet screams at the breeder. In my opinion, he is the best value in the country if not the world right now, with incredible upside, while cozzene is a very solid sire, he is almost five times more expensive and his future is certainly much more predictable. There is no telling where Northern Afleet will be in 3-5 years. My money is betting on Northern Afleet and my private system confirms this suspicion. Northern Afleet is incredible value for the breeder this year.

[bcassidy]

Michael, just some other comments on the stallions you mention: Forestry has some nice runners but how much of the credit goes to the broodmares he is visiting. The farm is pushing him very hard and I don't think he is as good as some people think he is. I love his offspring on an off track-- bet them big on off tracks as they excell on them.
Arch is very good value for the money, I hope they don't give up on him too soon.
Malibou Moon I think is extremely overated, I think his value will drop significantly in the next few years. He has a small number of very good runners but as an overall producer he is very weak.
Northern Afleet is incredible, as I stated above and
Tejano Run is very average as well.
Just my opinions from the data I gather.

[Keith]

Malibu Moon was not bred to the best mares in the country especially when starting out at $3500. Declan's Moon's half sister was not even hitting the board last summer at Penn National for Maiden $5,000 claiming. Malibu Moon should improve as he is bred to better mares and he may not be the next great sire but he has done really well for a stud that stood for $3500. However I do not feel he will follow in the footsteps of Our Emblem who had a career year when War Emblem won the Kentucky Derby. Parfaitment and Norquester who are not known as great broodmare sires but are the broodmare sires of Perfect Moon and Declan's Moon. Malibu Moonshine did win the Private Terms Stakes today. Malibu Moon has upgraded his mares and that is what people look for in a stallion but is he worth $30,000 that is a big question but getting the big horse is what sells.

Keith

[Michael]

HALO'S IMAGE should be on everyone's list as a sire for the future. Like so many sons of HALO, he has already far out-sired himself as a racehorse. I'm surprised he hasn't been picked up by Kentucky.

MALCOLM, glad to see your post. Redoute's Choice surely does look like the heir apparent to Danehill. I thought he was out of a Canny Lad mare, not a Lunchtime mare(?); if so, this might inhibit his ability to sire true distance types as his sire did. From what I gather, Encosta de Lago is just as hot as Redoute right now. I've seen very little inbreeding to Fanfreluche through Encosta de Lago, and wonder if breeders in Australia shy away from doubling up on mares. Seems a pity if they do--that's some of the greatest blood on the planet

[bcassidy]

Malcolm32--I have noticed Redoute's Choice, looks like he is off to an excellent start. I am sure everyone in Austrailia would like to see a son of Danehill step up to the plate, but those are very big shoes to fill.
On another note, do you hear anything about GRASS WONDER? I heard some of his two year olds are running big in Japan but I don't know what they think of him down under. Just curious to hear what they might be saying about him. Anything worth mentioning?

[FOS]

hi Michael

You wrote "HALO'S IMAGE should be on everyone's list as a sire for the future. Like so many sons of HALO, he has already far out-sired himself as a racehorse. I'm surprised he hasn't been picked up by Kentucky."

He has one very good horse as we know...Southern Image...but when you look at his overall percentages (particularly stakes-winners)...it's probably fair to say he is an underachiever. And the fact that he has but one graded stakes-winner (and a mere four stakes-winners overall...including one that earned only $110,690 and another that earned only $96,940) from his first 4 crops (totaling 206 foals) of racing age...is not very convincing...or impressive either.

I suggest he is NOT going to appeal to genuine Kentucky interests unless and until he can get a reasonably-good percentage of stakes-winners...and quality runners at major race tracks on a regular basis. For now though...it is clear he is not getting the job done (accept maybe as a regional stallion). I suggest that his advertised stud fee for 2005...of $10k...is even a stretch.

I sense that Florida (All Things Considered) is the perfect venue for Halo's Image...and he would be all but ignored in Ky...at least for now.

I suggest that so far he is what he is...so so...with what appears to be one aberration.

Best to you.

Respectfully

[FOS]

hi again Michael

To put it in perspective consider this.

Compare Northern Afleet at $12,500 (a bcassidy favorite)...

...to Halo's Image at $10,000 (your choice "as a sire for the future").

All Things Considered...such a comparison should make it clear why Northern Afleet was moved from Florida to Kentucky...

...and why Halo's Image is where he is.

Respectfully

[bcassidy]

Kieth, there are a lot of stallions that see poor to modest books of mares and still outproduce them consistently. I am not a believer in Malibu Moon and we will have to wait and see how it turns out for him. My data for him is very average, his big runner Declan's Moon notwithstanding. This is the kind of stallion which will receive a lot of attention because of DM and will then probably fizzle with time. That's my prediction based upon my data. I only look at the hard data I get on him and it is very average. Hard for me to like especially on an upturn in stud fee. JMHO. Respectfullly. Brendan

[freddymo]

FOS no disrespect but trying to find a season to NA at 12,500 is like trying to find the holy grail. I would guess the secondary market is close to twice that figure. Ask henthorn,or others what you would need to pay to get to him I do not think its 12,500!