Which young stallions have genuine MARKET APPEAL ?

[Derby2004]

For the smaller breeder, what are ya'lls opinions of the following sires?
Great Notion
Dream Run
Thunderello
Straight Man
Teton Forest
David Copperfield

[Keith]

1. City Zip by Carson City-Baby Zip by Relaunch Grade 1 winning half brother to Ghostzapper from the Mr. Prospector sire line. Winner of $818,225 and standing for $7500.
2. Decarchy by Distant View-Toussand by El Gran Senor Grade 2 winning half brother to Grade 1 winners Empire Maker, Chester House, Honest Lady, and Chiselling and also from the Mr. prospector sire line. Standing for $5,000.
3. Macho Uno by Holy Bull-Primal Force by Blushing Groom 2 year old champion and Breeders Cup Juvenile winner winning $1,851,803 by a Horse of the Year and half brother to Breeder's Cup Classic winner Awesome Again who sired 2004 Breeder's Cup winners Ghostzapper and Wilko. Standing for $15,000
4. Buddah by Unbridled's Song-Cahooters by Storm Cat Grade 1 winner of the Wood Memorial S. defeating Medaglia d'Oro. Standing for $15,000.
5. Proud Citizen by Gone West-Drums of Freedom by Green Forest 2nd in the Kentucky Derby and 3rd in the Preakness S. By Gone West and 3rd dam is a full sister to Northern Dancer. Standing for $17,500
6. Peace Rules by Jules-Hold to Fashion by Hold Your Peace winner of $3,000,000 and 3rd in the Kentucky Derby standing for $15,000
7. Johar by Gone West-Windsharp by Lear Fan Winner of the Breeder's Cup Turf and standing for $20,000
8. The Cliff's Edge by Gulch-Zigember by Danzig Millionaire and winner of the Blue Grass S. standing for $20,000
9. Friend's Lake by A.P. Indy-Antespend by Spend a Buck Grade 1 winner of the Florida Derby and standing for $15,000
10. Medaglia D'Oro by El Prado-Cappucino Bay by Bailjumper Winner of $5.7 million and 2nd in the Belmont S. and 2nd in the Breeder's Cup Classic twice.
Just to name a few

Keith

[FOS]

Hi Derby2004

Push a stack of chips on Thunderello. I saw a couple that were knockouts.

Respectfully

[Derby2004]

Do you think Thunerellos stud fee will lower?

[el camino]

Looking at the new stallions from 2004, with first I/F mares begining to sell and report of mares bred recently published, it is a good time to begin projecting who will be the leaders, surprises, and stand outs in 2007. First off, I probably missed some, sorry, but in terms of quantity of mares for new stallions....

Hold That Tiger 199
Van Nistelrooy 186
Proud Citizen 157
Gulf Storm 155
Full Mandate 151
Kafwain 142
Vindication 140
Harlan's Holiday 138
Sunday Break 132
Repent 119
Flatter 116
Posse 115
Empire Maker 111
Sky Mesa 110
Mach Uno 109
Milwaukee Brew 106
Mineshaft 104
Wiseman's ferry 104
Zavata 103
Sligo Bay 101
Aldebaran 101
Trust N Luck 101
WHYWHYWHY 95
Drewman 94
Essence of Dubai 87
Authenticate 86
Changeintheweather 84
Payne's Bay 83
Greatness 82
Lido Palace 80
Volponi 80
Hook and Ladder 76
Desert Warrior 73
Century City 72
No Armistance 74 -oops
Parkers storm cat 70
Say Florida Sandy 70
Skip to the stone 70
Rock Slide 69

I'll stop there, not that you have to have that many mares to be a success...ful Appeal but quantity helps.

[el camino]

Looking at this lsit and adding a few others like D'wildcat, Mayakovsky, David Copperfield and, I think I left out Yankee Gentleman at 102, gives about 50 stallions a good, fighting chance to see what they can do. A few quick things to note.
How do you find 199 quality mares, or 186? These excessive #'s are great for total progeny earnings but will it hurt in terms of AEI and SI, stats based per runner or per start? (ie; Expolit)
Do Florida based stallions benefit from the weather and have 2YO on the track sooner in the year?
Do stallions from states with good state bred programs benefit with higher purses in restricted races, ie; NY. Also what will purses be in NY when slots finally get there?
It seems like every Storm Cat son gets a chance now!

[Derby2004]

I have been looking at some young stallions and really like Lion Hearted and Unbridled Time. Any comments on these two?

[Cathy D]

Derby,

I don't know anything about Unbridled's Time, but I have seen Lion Hearted and quite a few of his weanlings and yearlings. He himself is medium size, balanced, and muscular. His right front leg is crooked from the knee, not knock kneed, but base wide. The good news is he doesn't seem to be throwing it. Most of the babies are very much like him otherwise. For the most part, they are dark bay or brown, and have some substance. Most have good bone and feet.

He has been very popular with regional breeders, and just had a second stakes winner in the first crop.

[el camino]

Of the aforementioned stallions 3 are in FLA at LOUROE farm, don't know anything about them except from visting the website, anyway, they have Gulf Storm, Skip to the Stone and Pure Precision.

Gulf Storm was really well supported, 155 mares some by Crafty Prospector, Seattle Slew, Black Tie Affair. From the OBS sale he had 5 mares offered I/F one was a stakes producer the others were "average" for a $3500 stallion.

I was wondering if anyone had some info on him as to why/how he is so well supported. He is a son of Storm Cat, yes, but is barely blk typed and earned only 194,000 in 17 starts, mostly turf. Mare is by Turkoman. The other two new guys at the farm only recieved 1/2 the amount of mares and both on paper appear to have as good or better resumes. Pure Precision was a G3 winner at 2.

Just a case of the farm owning the stallion and doing their best to make him?

[FOS]

Hi el camino

Gulf Storm is a tall and very leggy young son of Storm Cat...overall a very pretty horse.

He has a handsome head and alert eye...and is certainly an attractive colt with an athletic way about him.

Things that may weigh against him include his "turfy" look coupled with the fact that his racing surface of choice was the grass. Furthermore he is somewhat light framed...and does not have the kind of bone that I would like to see a horse his size carry.

The fact that he was not a stakes winner (although he was stakes-placed on the turf) is not exactly a plus...and I believe his sales success and overall perception could be negatively affected if he sires what he is.

But...again...he is pretty.

I know that "deals" were made to help attract an abundance of mares to Gulf Storm...but that's not intended to be a knock...simply a fact.

In comparison to another very well supported Florida Stallion (151 mares)...I heard of no "deals" to (syndicated) stakes winner Full Mandate (A.P.Indy/Clear Mandate by Deputy Minister).

The word spread fast regarding FM's looks, appeal and fertility...and there is a significant enthusiasm about him...he was actually difficult to get a season to at $5,000 live.

Regardless of stud fee...Gulf Storm is a pretty horse that (if numbers mean anything) has been given a very good opportunity...but his potential market appeal is debatable.

Best of luck.

Respectfully

[el camino]

Thanks for the analysis FOS. Certainly all Storm Cat sons get a chance now even if that is the only thing going for them. Kind of feel the same about Parkers Storm Cat in Maryland. He had only one win in four starts for 40,800. He has a little family though, 1/2 to Malibu Moon.

[Frank]

Pete, You were right that Ghostzapper got beat by Scrimshaw on 12-26-02 at Santa Anita in a 6 furlong allowance race with a purse of 52k. They were both 2 year olds for a few more days. What I like about Scrimshaw is he is precosious. His dam foaled 4 foals, 3 to race, 3 to win at 2. The other foal was from later developing Ascot Knight.

[Opti-Mate]

OFFICER!

[halo]

A good part of the reason that Full Mandate (as did Tiger Ridge and as will Omega Code) gets such large books is that they are syndicated into 50 share syndicates allowing for 2 breedings per year. The shares were snapped up as they were extremely cheap. So they insured the stallions will get full books of mares without having to rely on seasons being sold at market value.

[el camino]

He has such a great family, 1st, 2nd, 3rd dam. I believe he is 1/2 to new stallion Newfoundland. A.P. Indy seems to have been most successfull with Mr. P mares.