Rocking Trick

[Sysonby]

I guess the APR needs to be updated or more likely simply doesn't reflect South American horses unless they race here because here's the page:

http://www.keeneland.com/sales/Jan06/pdfs/726.pdf

There could be any number of reasons why she is in January. One reason that I suspect is because her SWs are from Argentina. The April Distorted Humor cover will help her value alot but her Argentina produce and her age not so much. She probably will go for whatever someone deems that Distorted Humor is worth.

[madelyn]

Well regardless, she is the dam of two "big" G1 winners and by Storm Cat. And her age is 15, not 17 or 18... I have seen a larger number of mares like her "dumped" in sales when they are '87 or '88 models than '90. I will go to see her if only to thank her very much for Rocking Trick, and to get an idea of where his striking good looks came from. I saw her Unbridled's Song filly sell at Saratoga (for only $185K) and she was not a "big" as the other US's. Still, that is only $60K over the published stud fee. She moved well, not a thing wrong.. but that same sale I saw a nice colt out of Sacahuista by Storm Cat bring only $350K, which is well below stud fee.. a few other Unbridled Song's brought LESS than stud fee. The numbers "look" big until you open the Stallion Register and see what the stud fee was.

Sentimentality aside, she could be a good buy. I would expect her to bring at least high five figures. What the catalog page can't show because it doesn't have enough space is that there are at least 10 G1 winners under her second dam, including Maid's Causeway. And who knows what her Pulpit colt will do? I haven't received my copy of the catalog yet so I have not had an opportunity to analyze the sale and see what else like Razzi Cat is in the book.

As to why she is in the sale, I have no idea.. the fictional writer in me could build a scenario. She was moved to the US in 2003, and the quarantine or transport was stressful and she lost whatever foal her owner had hoped to sell or race up here; she went to US, then Pulpit, etc. They may well have got a foal share on US so say they went away with $85-90K. They have the Pulpit to race, and now they have her in foal to Distorted Humor, maybe on a mare share and they are "bailing" before she gets older. Who knows? Who owns her now? Maybe she was sold privately after Saratoga.

Regardless, I will take my camera and at least get some pictures of her for Rocky's scrapbook (which also has all his mares in it and will have all his babies).

[madelyn]

madelyn, Rocking Trick sounds lovely. I just love hearing the proud-mama talk but sounds like he's really nice based on objective opinions too which I'm sure you must love.

What about those mares lends you to being willing to part with them? Just curious.

To answer the first part, yes it at least makes me feel that I don't have "rocks in my head" for embarking on this venture... as for the second part, simply cash flow. Strategy-wise, it gets Rocky-babies out there and makes room for me to have more mares next year. Anything offered for sale in foal to him includes a free breed back. For example, I am asking $8500 for Luv That Security who is in foal (due May 3rd) with a free breedback to Rocking Trick. That is a deal with $7K worth of stud fees, the first half of the mare care year and upfront vet bills were paid, etc., so it is a sweetheart of a deal (it ends up with a tag on a mare of $1500 for a mare really worth $8-10K). It is a form of marketing. Enticement. LTS was a hard knocking race mare that won over $110K. She is an excellent mother. It is kind of a "buy one mare get two babies free" offer. She is an attractive mare. Easy foaler. A mare someone would want. Some of the mares in foal to Rocky are on shares (I don't own them). So I couldn't sell them. I have 5 open mares in my lower paddock waiting for breeding season. There are 13 pregnant mares in my broodmare paddock (3 in foal to Bad Boy Atta). I only have room for 15 total. Two of Rocky's "this year" mares are leaving, going home "in foal" after weaning. More will come off the track. I probably need to sell at least three. If I could have moved quickly enough I would have JUMPED all over the American Chance filly I sold, through this board, for a trainer a couple of weeks ago.

The new Prospector's Gamble mare.. if no one buys her I will breed her. There are a few of my mares that for one reason or another I am determined will die of old age in my arms. I have long standing connections with them.. the Wekiva Springs mare (Valiant Spirit) whom I literally brought back from the very edge of death (starvation and neglect). That mare knows, and reminds me every day, that she owes me her life and I am determined to have her here for all of the rest of it. She would lay her life on the line for me.. she is devoted. I also believe she will be a fantastic broodmare. I don't know... maybe I DO have rocks in my head.

[serenarider]

Oh Madelyn
This brought me to tears

The new Prospector's Gamble mare.. if no one buys her I will breed her. There are a few of my mares that for one reason or another I am determined will die of old age in my arms. I have long standing connections with them.. the Wekiva Springs mare (Valiant Spirit) whom I literally brought back from the very edge of death (starvation and neglect). That mare knows, and reminds me every day, that she owes me her life and I am determined to have her here for all of the rest of it. She would lay her life on the line for me.. she is devoted. I also believe she will be a fantastic broodmare. I don't know... maybe I DO have rocks in my head.

And no you dont have rocks in your head;)

[llbean]

Hello LSB or anyone with the money to afford Tiznow's stud fee,

I highly recommend buying Razzi Cat for the purpose of breeding her to Tiznow after she foals the Distorted Humor as the match-up would be dynamite.

After all, Razzi Cat is a speed throwing daughter of Storm Cat, the damsire of Tiznow's Champion daughter Folklore, and a granddaughter of Luthier, who combined very close with Tiznow's sire Cee's Tizzy in the Eclipse Champion Older Mare Gourmet Girl...

And besides looking good to an expert like myself, this repeating of the sire/damsire cross of Folklore is the sort of thing even Auction Buyers will understand and respect (after all, take a look at the Storm Cat-Tranquility Lake Colt that sold for $9.7 Million, the Sheikh's bloodstock agent said explicitly that the colts being bred on the exact same sire/damsire cross as the Champion Giant's Causeway was a big reason why they coveted him so much).

I'd very strongly consider it, LSB, if I had your resources...

Thanks,

-llbean

[LSB]

Thank you for the advice, llbean.

However...one problem with that idea is that by mid-January when the mare sells, Tiznow's book will almost certainly be closed (if it isn't already.)

Also, historically speaking, leading the First Year Sire List is no indication that the horse in question will have a successful career at stud. And Tiznow, at 40K, doesn't seem like much of a bargain to me. If you remove Folklore from his stats, his results so far have been very ordinary.

"And besides looking good to an expert like myself, this repeating of the sire/damsire cross of Folklore is the sort of thing even Auction Buyers will understand and respect (after all, take a look at the Storm Cat-Tranquility Lake Colt that sold for $9.7 Million, the Sheikh's bloodstock agent said explicitly that the colts being bred on the exact same sire/damsire cross as the Champion Giant's Causeway was a big reason why they coveted him so much)."

Being an "Auction Buyer" myself, I don't think we're as dumb as you seem to be implying. It's one thing for the big players to covet and pay big money for a colt bred similarly to Giant's Causeway--who really is a giant right now. And quite another for them to open their wallets for something bred along the same cross as Folklore.

Nevertheless, just the fact that she's carrying a DH foal will probably prompt me to take a look at her.

[Sysonby]

And, unless we are talking about a really big nick (A P Indy x Mr Prospector for example), hoping for a big bump at the sales because of a nicking pattern is really wishful thinking.

Not only do I agree that Tiznow so far has had only one big horse but there's no guarantee that she'll be a big horse in 2 years when you're trying to sell the baby. There's a lot of "what have you done lately" in the sales ring. The better play (I think) is to mate her (with fingers crossed) to get the best looking baby you can by a stallion that appears to have some sales appeal if you get a good one. Good looks sell.

[llbean]

Thank you for the advice, llbean.

However...one problem with that idea is that by mid-January when the mare sells, Tiznow's book will almost certainly be closed (if it isn't already.)

Hi LSB,

You make a good point here. Still, you don't think they'd add a slot to get a Producer of Multiple Multiple G1 Winners who is by Storm Cat, not only a truely great damsire but also the damsire of Tiznow's first Stakes Winner, G1 Winner, and Champion Folklore??

Also, historically speaking, leading the First Year Sire List is no indication that the horse in question will have a successful career at stud.

But you forget that Tiznow has a very different distance profile than almost all Champion Freshman Sires that came before him. As there's every reason to think his runners will improve with age rather than regress, analogies to this or that precocious speedball who led the list in the past are inapt.

And Tiznow, at 40K, doesn't seem like much of a bargain to me. If you remove Folklore from his stats, his results so far have been very ordinary.

That however is a fair criticism of Tiznow. Still, we once again have the issue of maturation and the simple fact that many breeders who went with Tiznow were thinking of getting a good runner at 3 or 4 as opposed to 2 and therefore it is highly likely the Tiznows simply aren't getting pushed like the get of El Corredor, etc (I'll admit the Lukas filly may be termed a likely exception to that; but than look at what the Lukas filly has accomplished!)...

Do you know of Tiznow 2YOs (or even a Tiznow 2YO) who got pushed by his or her trainer this year besides Folklore?? (If you've seen evidence of it I'd really appreciate your telling me as it might tend to make me change my opinion regarding Tiznow's 1st Crop and his prospects).

And remember, though Tiznow's current figure of 1.11% Stakes Winners may be lower than Giant's Causeway's figure of 3.00% SWs; Giant's Causeway has 2 Crops of Racing Age as Opposed to Tiznow's One.

Also, though the sample size is smaller, Tiznow has managed to (in spite of his profound handicap of only having one crop to race as opposed to Giant's Causeway's two) get a HIGHER Percentage of G1Ws at least:

Tiznow: 1.11% G1Ws

Giant's Causeway: 1.03% G1Ws

Now I'm not saying this to criticize Giant's Causeway, I understand very well that GA has a much bigger sample size for his % of G1Ws (therefore Tiznow might not maintain his % as long as GA has) and also I also understand very well that there's the issue of GA's Larger Book undoubtedly being less well screened than Tiznow's, I'm just pointing out that your description of Giant's Causeway as a "Giant" seems very inconsistent with your being so hard on Tiznow to me (or did you mean GA was a Giant as a runner primarily?)...

Also, even though I well understand that the question of whether or not to breed to Tiznow now is a matter primarily of how well he'll turn out as a racehorse sire; there's still the issue of Tiznow throwing some good looking yearlings who sell well:


Tiznow Auction Analysis

2006 Advertised Stud Fee: $40,000

2005 Yearling Average: $132,356

2005 Yearling Median: $85,000

Yearling Average/Stud Fee: 3.30

Yearling Median/Stud Fee: 2.12


Giant's Causeway Auction Analysis

2006 Advertised Stud Fee: $300,000

2005 Yearling Average: $304,321

2005 Yearling Median: $193,387

Yearling Average/Stud Fee: 1.01

Yearling Median/Stud Fee: 0.64


(I understand that the GA Advertised Fee may be a deception, so maybe this comparision is somewhat unfair due to my using the Advertised stud Fee.)

Being an "Auction Buyer" myself, I don't think we're as dumb as you seem to be implying.

Please elaborate on how I'm implying that you Auction Buyers are dumb (also, what do you prefer to be called as opposed to Auction Buyers?).

To me if I'm guilty of anything perhaps I'm guilty of overestimating how smart Auction Buyers are as if you are correct that a Foal out of a Multiple G1 Winner's being bred on the exact same cross as a Multiple G1 Winning Champion won't help said foal sell for more, I would state that Auction Buyers are not using their heads to maximize their chances of buying a good racer.

And why wouldn't it help said foal in the ring?

Is it because Folklore is "Only" a Multiple G1 Winning Champion and not so great a racehorse as Giant's Causeway was? Well for one thing Folklore could go on to win Multiple Championships like Giant's Causeway and 6 G1 Victories like Giant's Causeway and for another thing: Even if the unlikelihood of Folklore turning out to be as good a runner as Giant's Causeway does not come to fruition; Which would you rather have: A Yearling bred on a cross that has produced NO G1Ws and NO Champions or a Cross that HAS Produced a G1 Winning Champion from VERY little opportunity?

To me, other things being equal, the cross bred on the cross that did produce the G1 Winning Champion from very few chances is the one that should be preferred.

However, I agree with you and Sysonby that IF Folklore is old news by the time of you sold a yearling by Tiznow and out of Storm Cat mare, the Tiznow / Storm Cat Cross Thing wouldn’t help the sale price. I just don’t think it’s a sure thing Folklore will be old news by then and also I fail to see why Auction Buyers think it makes sense to only consider information from a extremely narrow time frame (if you can explain it to me go ahead as it is quite possible I’ve failed to consider all the possible reasons).

-llbean

[llbean]

And, unless we are talking about a really big nick (A P Indy x Mr Prospector for example), hoping for a big bump at the sales because of a nicking pattern is really wishful thinking.

Not only do I agree that Tiznow so far has had only one big horse but there's no guarantee that she'll be a big horse in 2 years when you're trying to sell the baby. There's a lot of "what have you done lately" in the sales ring. The better play (I think) is to mate her (with fingers crossed) to get the best looking baby you can by a stallion that appears to have some sales appeal if you get a good one. Good looks sell.

Hi Sysonby,

I think you are correct on which one is the "Better Play" from the standpoint of the Yearling SELLER.

However, I think there's more than a little evidence that breeding a mare to a compatabile stallion will likely be better for the Yearling BUYER; and in the long term what's better for the Yearling buyer is better for the Yearling Seller to the extent that Yearling Buyers are more likely to invest money in a profitable enterprise as opposed to a money hole...

Do you think trying to breed the best looking foal you can by the most fashionable stallion you can is a good way to breed Stakes Winners, Graded Stakes Winners, and G1 Winners?

I'm asking as the "What's better from the standpoint of actually getting a foal that makes money, breeding to a Compatable Stallion or breeding to get the best looking foal you can?" question seems to be one where only the Compatable Stallion Crowd bother to even make an arguement...

-llbean

[Sysonby]

Do you think trying to breed the best looking foal you can by the most fashionable stallion you can is a good way to breed Stakes Winners, Graded Stakes Winners, and G1 Winners?

Yes, with this proviso, by best looking I mean best conformed--straight as in not offset, not back at the knee, balanced, good hip, nice shoulder, athletic, big walk, nice size etc. That's what sells and sells big--even in the absence of pedigree. Unfortunately all kind of games get played at auction too and horses other than described can sell for other motivations. A breeder can't assume that he or she will be benefit from these scenarios. Finally, pinhookers, whose horizon is only as broad as the next sale and some of whom will do anything to get that 10 second lick out of a baby, are attracted to nice looking yearlings. That may well compromise that yearling's future as a racehorse and alter stats on the racing career of certain sales horses.

But in general, the athletic look that sells and being athletic as a racehorse are not mutually exclusive. Overall, there are really only a few sires who don't sell well generally and who consistently put runners out there (ex Rahy [small], Dynaformer [plain] etc). Savvy buyers know what sires are likely to throw so they can evaluate the current individual against the norm so even a small but otherwise excellent Rahy isn't going to be a bargain in this market unless those X-rays are brutal.

Everyone knows the bargains because they make the best stories but there are countless horses that sell for over $200,000 in the ring because they looked like good prospects and they actually proved to be good prospects.

[LSB]

llbean, clearly you have more time to devote to this discussion than I do. I mentioned to madelyn that Razzi Cat was going to be in the sale because I thought she might be interested in seeing her stallion's dam; and now, somehow, I find myself being forced to defend my buying and breeding habits.

The fact that different horses appeal to different people is one of the things gives the TB breed the small amount of diversity it has. I see you're an ardent supporter of Tiznow. Please...breed to him with my blessing...buy all his offspring if you wish...I won't feel obliged to tell you that it isn't the path I would have chosen.

Boycott Giant's Causeway if you desire. It's certainly your right--and you'll be in very good company.

Please elaborate on how I'm implying that you Auction Buyers are dumb (also, what do you prefer to be called as opposed to Auction Buyers?).

Well, that idea came from this...from your previous post (emphasis mine):

And besides looking good to an expert like myself, this repeating of the sire/damsire cross of Folklore is the sort of thing even Auction Buyers will understand...

I would only mention almost everyone involved in the TB industry, from newcomers to old-time breeders with plenty of experience(one might even call them experts)--buys and sells at auction. Currently, it's the way business is most often done. Auction Buyers aren't some small subset of under-informed idiots. They're the norm.

[llbean]

LSB,

According to a literal interpretation of the term Auction Buyer you are indeed correct.

But I meant more specifically the sort of people who buy Unproven Yearlings at the upper end of the market.

Also, rather than imply that they are underinformed in general, I merely meant to imply that the majority of them don't care much about Nicks and therefore a result of their not caring is that (in my opinion) they have very little knowledge or understanding of them.

Perhaps nicks are nothing but lot of bunk and their unconcern therfore reflects well on them, but then why do Scientists have a almost exactly analogous concept called Epistasis?

Anyway, some people in the horse industry don't seem to understand the importance of pedigree strength either which is probably an even more serious issue so maybe I'm concentrating on the nicking issue too much.

Quite possibally some people who buy Unproven Yearlings at the upper end of the market have really high I.Q.s and perhaps some of them are even smart enough to more or less run a Small Country; but that doesn't mean they're good at picking out horses at auction who make back their purchase price at the races and at atud...

Just look at Sheikh Mohammed, he probably has about as bad a investment to return ratio with his Thoroughbred Auction Buys as anyone has ever had in the History of Investing Money...

After all, I'd like someone to show me example asides from Snaafi Dancer of someone investing $10 Million Dollars in something that didn't make a slim dime back excluding outright swindles.

-llbean

[llbean]

Do you think trying to breed the best looking foal you can by the most fashionable stallion you can is a good way to breed Stakes Winners, Graded Stakes Winners, and G1 Winners?

Yes, with this proviso, by best looking I mean best conformed--straight as in not offset, not back at the knee, balanced, good hip, nice shoulder, athletic, big walk, nice size etc. That's what sells and sells big--even in the absence of pedigree. Unfortunately all kind of games get played at auction too and horses other than described can sell for other motivations. A breeder can't assume that he or she will be benefit from these scenarios. Finally, pinhookers, whose horizon is only as broad as the next sale and some of whom will do anything to get that 10 second lick out of a baby, are attracted to nice looking yearlings. That may well compromise that yearling's future as a racehorse and alter stats on the racing career of certain sales horses.

But in general, the athletic look that sells and being athletic as a racehorse are not mutually exclusive. Overall, there are really only a few sires who don't sell well generally and who consistently put runners out there (ex Rahy [small], Dynaformer [plain] etc). Savvy buyers know what sires are likely to throw so they can evaluate the current individual against the norm so even a small but otherwise excellent Rahy isn't going to be a bargain in this market unless those X-rays are brutal.

Everyone knows the bargains because they make the best stories but there are countless horses that sell for over $200,000 in the ring because they looked like good prospects and they actually proved to be good prospects.

Very good post, Sysonby...

Another point worth noting vis a vis bargains is that far more horses sell cheap than expensive, and therefore it makes sense that even if the buyers happen to know what they're doing (more or less) they'd still be some successful horses who sold cheap just becasue of the percentages...

Also, I agree with you that most good racehorses sold at least pretty well relative to how other ones by their sire went for and thus a strong case can be made that there is some correlation between good conformation even as judged by imperfect buyers, pinhookers, etc., and racing success.

Still, the ones that go really expensive seem to have a rate of success much lower than the ones that sell mid-range (about $200k-800k)...

-llbean

[LSB]

Anyway, some people in the horse industry don't seem to understand the importance of pedigree strength either which is probably an even more serious issue so maybe I'm concentrating on the nicking issue too much.

The issue is not their lack of understanding--it's that some people in the horse industry weight things differently than you do. Bob Baffert, for instance, who shops for athletes, not for pedigrees. It's not a lack of intelligence on his part. It's a belief that his way is better.

Quite possibally some people who buy Unproven Yearlings at the upper end of the market have really high I.Q.s and perhaps some of them are even smart enough to more or less run a Small Country; but that doesn't mean they're good at picking out horses at auction who make back their purchase price at the races and at atud...

Just look at Sheikh Mohammed, he probably has about as bad a investment to return ratio with his Thoroughbred Auction Buys as anyone has ever had in the History of Investing Money...

Sheikh Mohammed is a very competitive person. Of course he wants to win races, but he also treats the sales like a competition. And he has a near limitless supply of money to do it with. The fact that you don't like the yearlings he buys has nothing to do with his intelligence or his lack thereof--once again, he's looking for something different than you are. When he climbs on his plane to go home, I imagine he probably feels a great deal of satisfaction from the fact that he "won" the sale. And that's what he wanted to do.