Invasor [ARG]

Discussion and analysis of thoroughbred stallions.

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Brigitte
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Postby Brigitte » Fri Nov 01, 2013 1:20 pm

Music Maid prefers dirt!
After finishing 9th and 10th in her first 2 races at 7f and a mile on turf she ran like a different horse at 7f on dirt. She broke 4th and raced just off the pace 4&5 wide in the backstretch, 3 wide in the turn, was 2nd in the stretch but couldn't catch the leader who romped - but Music Maid finished 2nd, 5 1/2 ahead of the rest and was still increasing her lead over the field.
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 13USA3.pdf

There were 3 factors at work, the first 2 were the change to dirt and the drop to a $20,000 Mcl from an MSW. Music Maid on turf lost by double digits and fell back quickly after 1/2. The winner also dropped in class after running in 10 MSWs on both dirt and turf with similar results on both surfaces (she was 10,0,1,4 and had earned $38,014). Class drop probably turned a runner knocking at the door into a winner. But Music Maid was looking terrible. This is great news!

The winner was claimed. Will Music Maid run in a dirt MSW next time? That brings us to the third factor - Lasix. Music Maid doesn't run on Lasix and the weight loss it causes would make her lighter and give her a few lengths. I hope they don't ...

Brigitte
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Postby Brigitte » Wed Nov 06, 2013 9:11 pm

Tros ran for the first time in the rain on a sloppy track. He fell back to last, 14 1/2 lengths from the front. Then he went 6 wide around the second turn and closed furiously to finish 2nd, 1/2 length behind the winner. Another Invasor mud-lark! Tros is seriously versatile, he won on a fast track forwardly placed and now showed a big closing kick from the rear on an off track.
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 13USA3.pdf

Brigitte
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Postby Brigitte » Wed Nov 06, 2013 9:45 pm

Ausus was being pointed to the $500,000 EP Taylor G1 for her final race. She was supposed to be retired early this year (Shadwell seldom races fillies at 4) but was kept in training to become Invasor's first graded stakes winner. She also outfinished Marketing Mix to be the best of the US fillies in the Beverly D G1 won by Dank. Well, Dank returned to win the Filly and Mare Turf at the Breeder's cup, finishing 1 1/2 lengths ahead of Marketing Mix who was 5th and second best of the US fillies. Ausus was very competitive against US fillies on turf and we never saw the best of her. She could have been a monster next year. But we'll never know.

Ausus showed "some slight lameness in an ankle" after her last work and was retired. According to her trainer she will be bred in Europe and brought back to Kentucky. Here's hoping her sons and daughters dominate the American Turf!

Brigitte
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Postby Brigitte » Fri Nov 08, 2013 5:24 pm

Komejhen got his firat victory at the Hipodromo de las Americas in Mexico in a 6f maiden race on a fast track. He broke 3d, hed the lead at 1/4 and finished strongly to win by 2 1/2 lengths.

Of the 3 Invasors to race in Mexico 2 are winners (Weapon and Komejhen). Just Spectacular, the only filly, raced twice at 2 and placed 3d at 5.5f in her second race on an off track. She hasn't raced in 2013, may have been bred.

Brigitte
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Postby Brigitte » Fri Nov 08, 2013 5:43 pm

Photon had traffic problems in a 7f race at Aqueduct. He was wedged between rivals and fell back to 7th to get space, and improved position, to finish 5th, 8 3/4 lengths behind the winner.
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 13USA7.pdf

Brigitte
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Postby Brigitte » Sat Nov 09, 2013 12:40 pm

Saint Arthur returned to the track after 4 months in a 6f AOC at Aqueduct. He ran an excellent race to the last 1/16. He went to the front, took control, got into an "intense fight" with the favorite at 1/2 and they remained "locked up in battle" until the final 1/16 when the winner shook Saint Arthur off. Saint Arthur finished 5th, 1 1/2 lengths behind the winner. He needed a race. Saint Arthur ran poorly off a layoff last time, this was a much stronger return. Welcome Back!
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 13USA2.pdf

Brigitte
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Postby Brigitte » Thu Nov 28, 2013 7:57 pm

Evening Muse finally made her racing debut after occasional works at 2 and at 3 and at 4. She finished 3d of 10 as the only female in a turf MSW for 3 and older at 1 1/16 miles at Churchill Downs. She was sent off at 34.20 and was 6th until the 3/4 when she got moving. At the finish she was losing some ground to the top 2 but gaining on the rest. Nice start.
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 3USA10.pdf

Evening Muse is the daughter of Go Go, a multiple graded stakes winner, all sprints on dirt and some on turf. Evening Muse, unlike her dam, is not a fast worker so it's nice that her trainer or trainers gave up on sprints but not on Evening Muse and were willing to debut her at over a mile against males. This could get interesting.

Brigitte
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Postby Brigitte » Thu Nov 28, 2013 9:03 pm

Komejhen, who won with a strong finish at 6f on Nov 1, returned Nov 17 at 7.5f but finished 7th (last) at Hipodromo de las Americas in Mexico. The notes say he tired.

Golf Juan finished 12th of 17, beaten 5 3/4 lengths on synthetic. That will become an unclassified finish. The notes say he was soon prominent but didn't get the distance (1600m, a mile).
http://www.zone-turf.fr/cheval/golf-jua ... etaillees/

Golf Juan is an enigma and French racing notes are terse or absent, which doesn't help. He came from behind for his only win at 1500m. He ran toward the rear but finished well to be 6th at 2400m, at 1900m he was forwardly placed but stayed well enough for 3d. He does not like turf. On synthetic he's often a front runner who mostly fades but not always, sometimes a closer who doesn't close enough (except once). Is he actually a dirt horse? We'll never know.

Brigitte
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Postby Brigitte » Sun Dec 01, 2013 11:54 pm

For the opposite approach to the thoughtful choice of race for Evening Muse:

Spanish Invader 2010 made his racing debut at Mountaineer. He was a non starter at 6f in Canada in August, was sold for $2,200 in November, had one official work at Beulah Park and ran in a $15,000 MCL at Mountaineer at 6f on a muddy (sealed) track. He finished 7th of 8 beaten 16 3/4 lengths, "always outrun". His dam was Sweetdownthelane, a stakes winner at 1 1/16.
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 13USA4.pdf

Brigitte
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Postby Brigitte » Wed Dec 04, 2013 10:09 pm

What is it about sprinting??? Why must horses who are not sprinters sprint or die?

Here we go again.
Tros won his racing debut at a mile.

His record at a mile is 3,1,1,1
His record at 6f is 2,0,0,0
That includes today's race at 6f in which he finished 4th, beaten 4 1/2 lengths.
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 13USA3.pdf

In both 6f races he had no early speed, ended up wide around the turn and was moving late but finished 4th. He was beaten 7 1/2 in the first sprint and 4 1/2 in the second. He'll probably win one someday. But what a waste of time.

In the mile races he was a front runner and won, was 2nd then finished 3d beaten 1 length, was a closing second, beaten 1/2 lengths racing 6 wide on the second turn. Some of the same horses raced him at a mile and 6f. Tros did better against them at a mile. So why not race him longer instead of shorter???

Brigitte
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Postby Brigitte » Wed Dec 04, 2013 10:43 pm

I've been comparing Invasor's first crop and his sire's first crop of offspring that were foaled and raced in the USA and Canada.

Candy Stripes' best runners in the USA, including Invasor and Leroidesanimaux, were foaled and raced elsewhere before coming here and weren't included. Without his South American offspring Candy Stripes looks a lot like Invasor as a stallion. They both had just one Graded Stakes Winner in their first crop. More soon.

North Invasion has a new trainer, Christian Scandella, and is making her debut as a jumper in a 3000m race over hurdles Dec 6th!

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Postby Brigitte » Fri Dec 06, 2013 7:52 pm

North Invasion, running for new connections, finished 2nd of 16 as the favorite in a 3300m (16.4f) race over hurdles on soft ground. As usual no notes but 8 of the 16 3 year old fillies didn't finish the race and 3 of them fell - T for Tombee (fell) and A for Arretee (stopped). OK, I don't like this at all, wish she'd go back to flat racing. Not likely since she ran well.
http://www.zone-turf.fr/cheval/north-in ... etaillees/

I found a site that gave positions at various parts of the race and North Invasion quickly went to the lead, lost the lead over the first hurdle, regained it on the first turn, stayed in front until just after the last hurdle when she was passed by the winner. As you can see the fillies who finished the race were strung out over 23 lengths.
http://www.zeturf.com/fr/resultats-et-r ... ?id=135560

Brigitte
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Postby Brigitte » Fri Dec 06, 2013 9:18 pm

Waafir was 3d of 10 in his racing debut at 5f in a $5000 MCL at Golden Gate Park on synthetic. His damsire is King's Best who won the 2000 Guineas over Giant's Causeway and has sired numerous high profile winners including Workforce, who won the Arc. In spite of this interesting pedigree Waafir didn't race until now at 4. He outperformed his total of 7 medium to slow works (handily, not breezing) including a very slow 5f work from the gate at 1:04. He was well placed in 3d or 4th the entire race run in 57.89 but lacked a closing kick - well, he ran a lot faster than in his works. Maybe he wants to win. I'd say run him on grass longer. Unlikely! He'll probably do cheap 5f claimers until he's burned out. Hopefully I'm just being cynical.
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 13USA5.pdf

Brigitte
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Postby Brigitte » Fri Dec 06, 2013 9:52 pm

Expression's race today was just like her last two races: a confirmed front runner got loose on the lead and the field followed without much change of position. 1-2-3 finished 1-2-3. Wait, last time Expression closed and got 2nd but the first time and this time she finished 4th running wide, "no rally".

Aha! The last race was run 2 seconds faster, all of it in the early pace so Expression was able to close. This time the pace setter dogged it early. That's when the jockey of a closer needs a clock in his head. Here's to more pace in the race next time.

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 13USA7.pdf

Brigitte
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Postby Brigitte » Sat Dec 07, 2013 9:56 pm

Al Faatik finished 3d at 1 1/16 miles on synthetic at Golden Gate Park. The race came off the turf. Al Faatik broke outward, carrying the 1.10 favorite with him. Al Faatik had the lead on the first turn. He and the favorite dueled for the rest of the race with the favorite getting the lead then being headed by Al Faatik in the stretch. They finished 3d & 4th because two closers passed them in the stretch for the win and place. This was a different Al Faatik, he had the will to win in this race. I suspect the key to the race comes early. Getting the lead encouraged him and made him fight, which also happened in his only win. If he'd got loose on the lead and had a chance to relax he'd probably have won! But he was pressured the whole way.
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 13USA8.pdf

Distance seems to suit him, he and the favorite were losing steam at the end, but it was a long, long duel. If my guess about Al Faatik's psychology is correct he has a better chance of getting involved in longer races because he has enough early speed to get the lead from non-sprinters. The longer the race the likelier it is they let him relax in front because the running starts later. Then he needs endurance, which he "should" have from both sides (but who knows). And maybe he's a turf horse.