Future Polytrack sires?

[Rokeby Forever]

The X factor in the future of breeding - it's becoming clear that more and more turf-bred horses are taking to Polytrack as opposed to standard dirt surfaces. So, if we're breeding a mare next month for a foal that will race in three years, there's a good chance that both the sire and mare will be producing a foal that will race on a surface that neither parent raced on.

It seems to me that the "European" built horse has less or no problem adapting to Polytrack as opposed to standard dirt surfaces. Hence, does this mean that a horse like George Washington, whom most think will be a "turf" sire, could actually become a Polytrack sire?

This is an important discussion - and yet, I haven't read one major breeder address it. I think that's rather odd...there's a chance that successful sires today might become bombs on Polytrack, and that lesser sires might become much improved. Why is something like this not being addressed in the breeding world, especially at the high end? Is that $1 Million AP Indy yearling worth $1 Million if the dam family loved dirt but the foal can't handle Polytrack (just using this as an example)?

[Ill-bred]

I don't think the breeders know how Polytrack will influence the industry. Plus, there's so much positive buzz about the artifical surfaces that no one wants to talk bad about them.

But I believe it will have a major effect on the sire lists if these surfaces continue to spread.

Keeneland will hold the first major two-year-old in training sale on Polytrack this April. Stay tuned...

[madelyn]

Perhaps they don't want it talked, or even whispered about, because they still have to fill the books of their dirt oriented stallions.

Seriously, though, it IS talked about in the handicapping news. There are some rising stars emerging, like Skip Away.

[ASB]

Its still very early to determine which stallions/stallion-lines will excell on the polytrack. Early results are interesting that some of the less popular lines are doing fairly well early.

Its a very interesting time to be a breeder... we should all be watching with eagle eyes!

[FloridaGators]

Seems like Military's numbers shot up during that first Polytrack meet at Turfway...

[Rokeby Forever]

Well, let's take a new sire (any new sire)...Bernardini, in this case.

He never raced on Polytrack. AP Indy never raced on Polytrack. Cara Rafaela never raced on Polytrack. How can Darley justify a $100,000 fee based on his dirt talent and his pedigree laced with dirt talent when, in 3 years, most if not all major tracks will be Polytrack?

If you watched Polytrack stakes races this year, you would have noticed that several dirt horses simply didn't take to it, while several turf horses (Saint Stephen, Asi Siempre, among others) love it.

On that basis, I think it's safer to breed to a sire that nicks well with a mare that sires good dirt AND turf horses (Rahy, Cozzene, Dynaformer, and the like). While breeding for the turf might be a "niche" in this country, it might actually be effective for Polytrack.

I just don't understand sire fee increases (like Unbridled's Song and Distorted Humor to $225,000....) when success is based on surfaces that may not or probably won't exist in three years. Funny Cide, Flower Alley, and Distorted Humor's best haven't accomplished anything on Polytrack to justify a $225,000 fee next year. And yet, I haven't read anything addressing this....I think a lot of "high end" buyers are going to get burned in a couple of years when they realize that those expensive, "well bred" yearlings just don't like Polytrack (as will be the case with several, I imagine). I'm not saying Distorted Humor offspring won't....he's just an example I'm using to help clarify my point.

[Worksoplad]

Funny Cide is a gelding. Very lucky to get $225,000 for a mating to him.

[FOS]

hi guys

Stormy Atlantic's two-year-old son Stormello won the recent G1-Hollywood Futurity, run over Hollywood Park's new all-weather surface (which is NOT polytrack-brand). I've heard some glowing reports about it.

Respectfully

[ASB]

FOS... you hit the nail on the head. Each track seems to have a very different make-up, more so than the contrast of dirt tracks.

Its going to be a sit and wait approach but also trying to read the trends.

Gone West started hot but he's seemed to cool some on the surface... its going to be interesting for the industry.

[Rokeby Forever]

I'll agree that Polytrack has different makeups, but I can't agree it differs more than dirt surfaces did. I haven't seen a Polytrack speed bias like old Keeneland, Gulfstream, Monmouth, and most West Coast tracks. Nothing can be as deep as Belmont Park, and Churchill is still a quirky surface.

What do we now make of a sire like Successful Appeal? Appealing Zophie is his first Grade 1 winner, but at Keeneland on Polytrack, she was awful. His fee has jumped because of Closing Argument and Appealing Zophie putting him on the map, but if the future is Polytrack, what has he proven...that his best filly to date doesn't like it?

[FiftyYearsPlus]

I think that you're on to a critical topic, and one that I have given considerable thought to recently. I noted years ago the change in form between aqueduct/belmont and saratoga, and santa anita/hollywood and del mar.
Racing surfaces matter a great deal and I think the industry has stumbled into a highly unpredictable crossroad in racing performance.
Clearly there a several factors that play into the affinity for dirt vs. turf and two of the important ones, in my opinion, is the size and cup of the hoof and resulting traction, and the horse's preferred race "shape".
For example, I own a "run all day" colt by Pleasant Tap who has performed best on the turf because he seems to get better traction, but his early speed has always suggested to me that he would perform better on a dirt surface if he could grip it better.
"The devil's always in the details."

[reenci]

i kinda think the breeding world is in for a wake up call.....and right now the phone is ringing and ringing and no ones answering...the alarms going off and they will keep hitting the snooze alarm button....status quo. now is the chance for inovative breeders to cash in. bring on the poly track or what ever ....its better for the horses and thats what really matters.......but i gotta be honest here....saratoga needs to remain dirt, CD too. but if you could only have one surface...then let it be poly track or such.

[kimberley mine]

What do we now make of a sire like Successful Appeal? . . . what has he proven...that his best filly to date doesn't like it?

(emphasis mine)

Yes, and that is ALL that is proven at this point in time about Successful Appeal and polytrack. Beware small sample size error!

By contrast, Madelyn mentioned Skip Away. He is on record with multiple winners on synthetic surfaces (at Keeneland, Woodbine, and Turfway) including a Gr-3 winner in one of Canada's premier events for juveniles. Many of his winners went off at very long odds, implying that by their dirt and/or turf form, they were unlikely to win the race. Put back on dirt/turf and they validated that form. On the synthetic track, however, they had a form change that can only be explained by the track.

To label Successful Appeal as a "failure" for synthetic tracks, I'd have to see almost an inverse Skip Away...many SA runners going off as favourites/near favourites based on their dirt form, and throwing in clunkers over and over and over again, only to reverse form on dirt.

[Rokeby Forever]

FloridaGators is 100% correct...Military is a great example of a "turf" horse doing really well with his offspring on Polytrack. Military has never really been given a chance with the mares given to him, but he does well considering the less than great quality they have been with his limited crop production every year.

[Roguelet]

Am I the only one who thinks the poly hype is too premature? Each poly surface is different. Even at Turfway, the poly surface is different this year than last year... by a LOT. We had a filly who tried to run there last year several times and hated the surface. She's running there now and handling it just fine, but they've done some things different with that track between last year and this year. AND, there have been multiple breakdowns at Turfway on the poly from what I understand, but nobody is talking about that.

I don't think that all or even most surfaces will be poly soon. Yes, we'll probably see more and more poly as the years go by, but a horse who runs well on poly in Kentucky might not handle a poly surface in California well at all. And, those tracks that build a turf course don't just build it on top of and do away with the dirt course, they build it separate and have two different racing surfaces available. Maybe we'll see some of that done in the future.

IMO, if a breeder chooses not to breed to a stallion because he or his sire didn't run on poly, or maybe he ran on poly but didn't do that well, they're missing the boat. Sure, if you are breeding to race at one specific track only, that is poly, and there is a new sire who kicked butt on that particular surface, give it a try I guess, but that also will leave out any proven sires since poly just hasn't been around that long. And for heaven's sake why try to narrow the Thoroughbred gene pool any more than it already is by only breeding to "perceived" poly stallions?

JMO, not trying to argue with anyone and not trying to belittle anyone else's opinion, but I really think that a breeder trying to breed specifically for a "poly" runner is potentially shooting himself in the foot.