Carnivalay vs. Allen's Prospect

[StayOutFront]

Since the late 1990s, I've printed out/saved stallion stats on both Carnivalay and Allen's Prospect. Allen's Prospect, of course, is touted as one of the top Maryland sires in history, whereas I don't believe people generally feel that about Carnivalay. Yet Carnivalay has a higher AES than Allen. He also has more GSW and the same percentage of SW as Allen. Carnivalay has also had more stakes runners, percentage-wise, than Allen.

I'm now looking at their current Brisnet stats, which will probably be near their final stats (Carnivalay was pensioned in 2003, Allen died in 2003). Both had 17 crops. Allen had many more foals (1,078 to 611).

Carnivalay currently has a higher AES by more than $3,000 ($58,538 to $55,392). They have the same % SW/foals (6%) and SW/starters (7%) although Carnivalay has a higher percentage of blacktype horses/foals and blacktype horses/starters (Carnivalay 12 and 15%, Allen 9 and 11%).

Carnivalay's foals raced longer (average 3.26 years to Allen's 3.05) and made more starts (8 to 7.76).

I'm not quite sure what the SPI means, but for "Adjusted SPI" (which seems to consider mare quality) Carnivalay's number is 1.14 to Allen's .96 (of course, not knowing what SPI is, perhaps a lower number is better). Without considering the mares, Allen is slightly ahead with 1.18 to 1.16.

Carnivalay sired 1 Gr 1, 2 Gr 2 and 4 G3 winners (total 7). Allen sired 2 G1, 1 G2 and 1G3 winner (total 4). However, those numbers look even better for Carnivalay in considering Allen's Prospect had more than 400 more foals to work with.

On the negative side for Carnivalay, Allen had slightly more starters/foals (86 vs. 83%) and winners from foals (70 to 67%). They both had 81% winners from starters. Median-earnings-wise, Allen also had a slight edge, by about $2,000 ($28,125 vs. $26,151).

Carnivalay, at least as long as I paid attention, had a much lower stud fee ($3,000 to $15,000) - $12,000 less than Allen.

Both had great pedigrees - Carnivalay (Northern Dancer - Obeah) and Allen (Mr. Prospector - Change Water).

Carnivalay was not tall, listed as 15.3 (called just over 15.2 in Country Life Diary). I don't know how tall Allen was, but he certainly wasn't tall, either. The Blood-Horse stallion register didn't list a size for him.

Carnivalay was a bit 'hot,' as the Northern Dancers tended to be. Yet as Allen, at least twice, ravaged handlers, he was not exactly a pussycat.

From the stats, it seems a breeder who breeds-to-race might make a little bit more money with an Allen's Prospect, yet when considering the stud fee they'd be way behind. And they had less chance of coming up with "the big horse."

So, why was Allen's Prospect so much more popular? He was treated like Maryland's little Storm Cat. Is that in those statistics and I'm missing it? Obviously breeders saw something, or that stud fee wouldn't have been $15,000.

I'm not a breeder and I rarely study stats like this, so I'm out of my league in figuring this one out.

Thanks very much for any ideas/insights!

[Denise]

SPI means sire production index. 1.00 is average, so anything above it means better than average. Take a look at some other stallions (Cozzene comes to mind) for some eye-popping SPIs, meaning they upgrade their mares significantly.
IMO, Allen was more popular than Carny because Allen's babies sold better as yearlings and 2yos. He got better mares and more of them as a result of the thirst to sell, rather than breeding to race. Yes, a lot of them were fast, but there were also soundness issues among them.
If I had a choice, I would have to bred to Carny to get a runner, because I'm not looking for a pinhook opportunity. That pedigree was extraordinary. His get were and are tough and durable. I've always been more of a N. Dancer fan than a Mr. Prospector fan, anyway, for that reason.
Unfortunately, the bloodstock folks give up on freshmen and sophomore sires, irrespective of pedigree, if their babies don't sell well early on, and if they produce later bloomers. It's why our business is fouled up...people don't seem to want to keep "skin" in the game. Keeping a runner in training costs money. Flipping bloodstock is easier and it means you don't stay vested. Getting that zillion dollar yearling seems to be more important than sticking with and building an athlete.
Of course, I could be wrong...

[StayOutFront]

Thanks, Denise, for your interesting thoughts. Sadly, that makes sense.

Carnivalay moved his mares up and Allen moved his down (according to the adjusted SPI). But perception is everything, and those sales pages with black type must have looked good. Perhaps Allen's babies also visually looked better as yearlings/2yos. Carnivalays often looked like, well, Carnivalay/Northern Dancer. Nifty, but...

Carnivalay even had 3 GSW in his first crop - Valay Maid, Lucky Lady Lauren and Groscar.

Thanks again!! Your post was really informative and interesting, and I very much appreciate your help.

[ratherrapid]

yes, agreed, denise said it very well.

what makes these two stallions interesting is that country life stayed with them--the act thing Denise complained about with so many potentially good sires. seems like the stats are pretty close--so whose to say whether you breed a particular mare to mr. prospector line or ND. My experience with ND line--very sound, medium speed. ive never had Mr. Prospector. My one swaps line horse--very talented, nice stride.

if you compare the stallion photos with other available stallions at the time--late -80s early -90s of AP and carnivally--were they dumpy little stallions, comparitively? carnivally at least has the appearance of athleticism in a compact build. Frankly, I'd breed to neither of them given the other available choices. but then, people have different theories. mine is more that genes are secondary and it's most productive racingwise to breed an athlete to an athlete. Breeding for the market, u do what denise said, u chase the money, never mind the horse. But, i'm other than a breeder, and i'm interested to continue to read the breeding stories on these boards.

[Denise]

Carny sired one of my favorite steeplechasers, a relative youngster at age 8: Mixed Up. Bet it would be hard to find an 8yo. Allen going 2 and a 1/4 miles over hurdles....
Rapid said it right: the N. Dancers are usually smaller, more compact and athletic looking, not as refined or maybe "pretty" as the Prospectors, thus not as attractive in the ring. I think any dumpy little horse (or big geeky one, frankly) looks awesome running past the others right into the win photo, though.

We've now got 4 homebreds in our little racing queue, and we've used a very basic principle as our breeding mantra, because we breed to race: find a good winning mare with solid race credentials, a decent pedigree and a good female family behind her and breed her sensibly (money and pedigree-wise) to a another winner. At the very least you improve your chances of getting a winner, barring anything unforseen.
Two athletic, proven competitors usually have a pretty good shot at replicating themselves. I look for heart, mind and keen eye, not blueblood.

[Keith]

Both are half brothers to great mares

Carnivalay is a half brother to Go For Wand
Allen's Prospect is a half brother to Fall Aspen

Remember Preakness runner-up Magic Weisner who is by Ameri Valay a son of Carnivalay. Ameri Valay is from the family of Little Bold John. Ameri Valay is standing for $2500

Keith

[nythoroughbredvz]

i know this doesnt totally pertain to this posting, but i have a mare that didnt do well at all racing! but looks very nice,16.1-16.2 and is by Allens Prospect-Anatasia,by Carnivalay.. her dam is a full sister to "Valay Maid" she was a graded winner. im breeding her to my 25 year old stallion "Dr. Koch" what do you think of this mating, and i want to thank everyone that added to this post, it gave me a bit more insight on my mares pedigree!

[ratherrapid]

could u tells the reasons for your mare's racing, and the pedigree of dr. koch.

[nythoroughbredvz]

she wasnt managed very well,i dont want to go into detail. but she was in rough shape when i got her! Dr. Koch is out of In Reality-Gold Box,by Bold Ruler

[ratherrapid]

wow. In reality-bold ruler. another family of "smile" type. here's my one rat observation--in reality with ND fares poorly. they were both small horses. ive seen some with this combo and they're unimpressive. ND with Bold Ruler is a very successful combo from my one horse that i have with this. sound and athletic. how the mr. prospector, swaps stuff mixes would be unknown to me. at any rate, i'd sure try it because looks as if you'll get a combination of some of the most successful runners and sires. hard to see how the foal would be slow. here's what else I like--doubt you'll get a horse that is too heavy here.

[nythoroughbredvz]

thank you, my mare is very tall, proportioned and has heavily boned legs, she is very sturdy she doesnt have a lot of width though! Dr. Koch is built like a quarter horse now at the age of 25, but i have pictures of him at age 8, and he looked amazing. im breeding him to my Cherokee Run mare also, Crystalen Tiffany.thank you once again!

[StayOutFront]

Thanks again, everyone, for the truly interesting comments.

And nythoroughbredvz, congratulations on your acquisition of Dr. Koch! As a fan of Dr. Koch (the human) I've long followed Dr. Koch (the horse). He was quite a runner (the horse - not sure about the human).

I'm so glad you've brought him to New York. I wish I lived closer as I'd love to come get a look at the old boy. I have no mares, unfortunately, so it would just be a gawking tourist visit. From the photos you shared of him, he still looks tremendously handsome.

Good luck!

[Broad Brush]

Carnivalay had great success at the beginning of his stallion career. As has been stated, he had 3 GSW in his first crop out of a mediocre book of mares, much like his Country Life contemporary Malibu Moon. At the time comparisons where already being made and he was being touted as the next Danzig by some. Unfortunately that initial popularity did to continue with his future crops. While he certainly continued to produce useful runners and a number of stakes winners at the regional level, Carnivalay never could consistently a good runner at the national level which led to commercial mediocrity and him not receiving the respect he should have.

Allen's Prospect on the other hand was never known for throwing the big horse. What he could do was throw a consistent sound runners that found a lot of success in the Mid-Atlantic area. Over time his popularity increased along with his stud fee and sales averages. His last crop just turned 3 so his numbers are not near complete and I would expect them in the end to be very similar to Carnivalay's.

Another factor you must consider is the fact that Carnivalay, while very athletic, was very small. That 15.2 height was probably a little bit of a stretch. We all know how size triumphs athleticism overall at the sales. Also Carnivalay was very high strung which a lot of his offspring inherited and could make them difficult to train. Some of you may recall a Carnivalay filly named Radu Cool who was very talented but was a complete nutcase around the starting gate. Allen on the other hand was bigger and threw more desirable sized foals. His offspring also didn't have the temperament problems. His fillies have also become quite good broodmares with notables such as G1 Winner Hookedonthefeelin having Allen as a broodmare prospect.

[StayOutFront]

Carnivalay had great success at the beginning of his stallion career. As has been stated, he had 3 GSW in his first crop out of a mediocre book of mares....While he certainly continued to produce useful runners and a number of stakes winners at the regional level, Carnivalay never could consistently a good runner at the national level which led to commercial mediocrity....

Allen's Prospect on the other hand was never known for throwing the big horse. What he could do was throw a consistent sound runners that found a lot of success in the Mid-Atlantic area. ...

Another factor you must consider is the fact that Carnivalay, while very athletic, was very small. That 15.2 height was probably a little bit of a stretch....Allen on the other hand was bigger and threw more desirable sized foals....

Hi Broad Brush,

Thanks for your interesting thoughts. I'm curious as to how tall Allen was, as the times I saw him he looked pony-sized (Carnivalay was listed as 15.3 in TBH register, although that definitely seems a stretch). Allen's height was not listed in stallion registers over the years, although the other CLF stallions had listed heights. That always looks suspicious.

I have a photo of him about to mount a mare and she's a full hand taller than he is. Allen sure looks mighty short in his stallion pic, too...but his foals might have been bigger than he was.

I'm afraid I still don't understand why Carnivalay having regional stakes winners, and several national SW, would result in "commercial mediocrity," while Allen producing regional stakes winners but fewer national SW would result in a highly successful stud career.

Allen had eight horses that earned between ~$594,000 - 400,000). His leading earner earned just under $600,000.

Carnivalay had nine earners of between $860,000 - 400,000, and his leading earner made more than $850,000 (a regional SW who was G1SP nationally, not from Carnivalay's first crop). Three of his foals earned more than Allen's highest earner.

Carnivalay had more than 400 fewer foals, so those numbers are even more interesting than at first glance.

I'd never heard of the Allens being "consistently sound." Friends who've have/had Allens have complained of both soundness issues and distance limitations. Allen's foals have fewer starts, and race for a shorter time, than Carnivalay's.

The attitude thing might have played a part, though. Although I know Allen could be horrid, I've never paid enough attention to his foals' attitudes to know what they're like.

As tough as Radu Cool might have been, she won 9 of 20 starts in a 4-year campaign, winning a G2, 3 other stakes and earning $572,218. Here in NY we've had really tough stallions such as Cormorant and Personal Flag, yet people still bred to them as their foals were successful.

Perhaps the broodmare sire angle had something to do with the difference, although those stats would only come to light recently. I'd guess more people would buy yearlings based on their ability to become good runners rather than to become nice broodmares - but it is certainly a very good backup plan when purchasing a filly.

I could see Allen's fillies selling for a bit more, then, if people thought they'd go home and be good broodmares. But shouldn't Carnivalay's sons sell as they might be good racehorses, sort of evening the balance?

[StayOutFront]

His (Allen's) last crop just turned 3 so his numbers are not near complete and I would expect them in the end to be very similar to Carnivalay's.

Herein lies my curiosity/question.

Yes, Allen's last crop is still heading to the track, so his numbers will change. Yet he already has 895 foals to race which gives a very good indication of his numbers. Most of Carnivalay's 492 starters are finished racing, so his stats are definitely slowing down.

I agree that their numbers will end up being very similar - nearly identical, I'd guess. So I still don't understand why Allen is considered Maryland's Storm Cat to so many while Carnivalay is dismissed.

Even if Carnivalays were an inch shorter or a bit tougher than Allens, they seem to have been better racehorses - durability and earnings-wise. So I still don't understand the tremendous difference in people's perception of the two.

Thanks again for your thoughts!