Johannesburg first crop seems to be impressive- NOT

[markmhere]

I noticed there has been some discussion about how well Johannesburg's first crop (2004) is doing. I am looking forward for 2007 133rd Kentucky Derby. There is a possiblity that there might be three starters bred by Joannesburg; Scat Daddy, Teulfesberg, and Joannesburg Star.

Is this unusual for a sire to have at least two or three starters in the Kentucky Derby for its FIRST CROP ?

[geowarrior]

I don't know the answer to your question Mark, but it's an interesting one that had also occurred to me and I had thought of posting the question myself.

I recall that there have been several postings saying that Johannesburg's stud fee was raised on the performance of Scat Daddy only. I do like Teuflesberg, he is a horse with heart who is getting good results at distances far longer than those for which I believe he is suited.

I'll be interested to see the responses to this thread.

[Mahubah]

I'd be more impressed with Johannesburg if he were getting the same results from half the mares. This is not a knock on the horse; it merely reflects the Ashford/Coolmore business plan, which depends on huge numbers to keep a horse near the top of the stallion charts. Johannesburg has 149 foals in his first crop -- that he came up with one G1 winner, one G2 winner, and two G3 winners from this lot is nice, especially since these are only early three-year-olds, but not exactly enough to set off fireworks for yet. To give him credit, his mares were a good but not outstanding lot overall, so it's not that he's done badly; it's just that his accomplishments are diluted by the sheer numbers.

Of the three "possibles" named, only Scat Daddy has shown the racing class to warrant much consideration so far -- be interesting to see how he handles the Florida Derby with another sixteenth of a mile tacked on and some good competition. He certainly looked good in the Fountain of Youth. Teuflesberg is a nice colt but a long step below the best of this crop IMO, and Johannesburg Star has yet to accomplish as much as Teuflesberg has.

[Ill-bred]

Yeah, good but not great results with a giant book and very average mares.

I'm personally not a fan of J-burg's offspring thus far, but there's no denying he is getting runners.

$65,000 seemed too high when they did it, and I still feel that way. But at least they're training on at three.

[fastappy]

Johanesburg had a record breaking 7 juvenile stakes winners and now with 3 possible Derby starters it is just amazing. Johannesburg is some what of a conundrum in that despite the accomplishments of some outstanding runners, he has an abysmal median (lifetime) earnings of $4,238 (the lowest by far, of any top 10 current 2nd crop sire, per BH thru 3/26/07). Half of 104 starters earned less than $4,200 (Yikes!).

His lifetime average earnings per starter is 27K which would place him 5th on the current 2nd crop sires list and his lifetime win percentage from starters is 15% which would make him co-lowest of the top 10 2nd crop sires.

Whereas (for example) E Dubai has 9 repeat winners (cummulatively) from 30 starters, Johannesburg has 10 repeat winners from 104 starters! Johannesburg has 2% stakes winners and 1% stake placed runners.

He has a lot to offer in terms of swinging for the fences, but you would need substantial (65K fee) disposeable funds if you decided not to sell. Still, Johannesburg has destinquished himself in getting high quality runners capable of winning the B.C. or Derby, and isn't that what most high rollers are seeking. When you plunk down 3.2 million for an impressive maiden winner (Curlin, winner of the Rebel S.), you're not going to sweat a $65K stud fee.

[Rokeby Forever]

If you're planning to sell a J-Berg, how realistic is his $65,000 fee? There are so many available that it's awfully difficult to breed the one that's going to stick out in the crowd...and even if it does, are you likely to hit a "home run" with a J-Berg? Don't expect John Ferguson to give one a second look. LOL!

[Mahubah]

Johannesburg hasn't had a great book of mares, but they aren't "very average" either. His CI is 1.91, indicating that the average runner produced by other sires from his mates has earned nearly twice as much per start as the average for the breed.

Just by way of comparison, Street Cry has 5 SWs (including champion Street Sense and G3 winner Big Timer) from 88 foals in his first crop. On average, he was bred to better mares than Johannesburg (CI = 2.45). Officer has not sired anything that has proven to be of the quality of Street Sense or Scat Daddy yet, but from 85 foals in his first crop he has 8 SWs so far, and his CI was only 1.49, so I'd say he's done about as much with the opportunities given to him as the other two. Which one is the best sire? That depends on how well the horse in question fits your breeding goals. They all have their merits.

[geowarrior]

Mahubah, I'm not sure I completely agree with you about Teuflesberg. I don't think he has the highest class at the Classic distances, so I'd agree with you there, but that just makes his results in two turn races all the more impressive. I believe he has untapped talent as a sprinter, though, but his connections seem to be dead set on aiming him for the T.C. He is a magnificent looking colt (IMO) and durable also, as he has probably had the most starts of any high level three year old that I can think of. I don't think he has been well served by his connections. If the T.C. is over and they bring him back to sprinting, we may see his true class.

[Ill-bred]

Johannesburg hasn't had a great book of mares, but they aren't "very average" either. His CI is 1.91, indicating that the average runner produced by other sires from his mates has earned nearly twice as much per start as the average for the breed.

Just by way of comparison, Street Cry has 5 SWs (including champion Street Sense and G3 winner Big Timer) from 88 foals in his first crop. On average, he was bred to better mares than Johannesburg (CI = 2.45). Officer has not sired anything that has proven to be of the quality of Street Sense or Scat Daddy yet, but from 85 foals in his first crop he has 8 SWs so far, and his CI was only 1.49, so I'd say he's done about as much with the opportunities given to him as the other two. Which one is the best sire? That depends on how well the horse in question fits your breeding goals. They all have their merits.

My impression of Johannesburg's mares was based on the production records of the dams of his stakes winners and the other J-burgs I have seen at various sales and at the races. If I've seen three or four dozen Johannesburgs, I can't recall a single one that wowed me on pedigree. But I suppose that is more anecdotal than simply looking at his CI.

[Rokeby Forever]

Any Buddha fans here? LOL!

[Sysonby]

I noticed there has been some discussion about how well Johannesburg's first crop (2004) is doing. I am looking forward for 2007 133rd Kentucky Derby. There is a possiblity that there might three starters bred by Joannesburg; Scat Daddy, Teulfesberg, and Joannesburg Star.

Is this unusual for a sire to have at least two or three starters in the Kentucky Derby for its FIRST CROP ?

At this time 2 years ago, Coolmore threatened to do it before with Fusaichi Pegasus. By April, Fu Peg had had the Bluegrass winner (Bandini), a graded SW in Andromeda's Hero and a bang up maiden winner in Fusaichi Samurai. Yeah some of it is accomplished through numbers but it's still not easy to do.

[Sysonby]

Any Buddha fans here? LOL!

Actually if you asked me this the same time last year, I would have said a resounding yes. I've seen a number of the Buddhas and they are gorgeous horses. They are not even terribly unsound as a rule to my understanding (although I do know of one that broke down training). They just can't run much.

It's early but maybe Buddha is Houston. Remember him? A $1.9 million stakes winner for Lukas. Bred to some nice mares and his first foals bowled everyone over with their looks. Smart people thought they were looking at the next successor to Seattle Slew. The problem was that they couldn't run--not even a bit. He stands for something like $1500 now in California.

It happens.

[Rokeby Forever]

Hi Sysonby.

Houston? Talk about a Lukas butcher job - and it was his own horse!

Houston was a HUGE two year old (rumored to be steroided) that won his first start like a monster at Belmont...I remember Kiaran McLaughlin saying, "I had a lump in my throat" after the win. The "He's the greatest" Lukas PR machine was at full speed after that. He didn't race again until Santa Anita, and got beaten a head by some colt named Sunday Silence. "Who the heck is Sunday Silence?" was the question everyone was asking. Go know, huh?

I remember that spring that Houston had a well publicized fractured splint that Mr Lukas found the wisdom to race him on. That wisdom even took Houston to the KY Derby to lead for about six furlongs. I think the horse needed time off after that and returned as a mediocre sprinter.

I don't remember Houston being that well received by breeders as much as another Seattle Slew that Lukas had around that time - Capote. What was his initial stud fee?

[Mahubah]

Actually, I thought Houston was pretty well received and his first weanlings and yearlings sold well, but as Sysonby said, the bottom fell out of the market fast for him after it was found that most of them couldn't run a lick for all their good looks. Capote was much the better sire for racing but often got a coarse type with a very plain head -- the "Capote mule," some folks called 'em. Matty G's a good example of the type: good runner, but no awards for show-horse looks there. It hurt Capote's sale average some, but not half as much as lack of racing ability hurt the saleability of Houston's progeny.

Geowarrior, you could be right about Teuflesburg's ability as a sprinter. He's certainly a nice, hard-trying colt and I would be proud to own one like him.

[Mike]

J'burg has not done well down here yet, but they still sold well at the sales considering. Thsi may mean that there are a few that trainers have a good impression of.