hi all,
A poll in the TB Times (on-line) asks the following question...
Who will be the Leading Freshman Sire of 2005?
Only 7 choices were offered and they are:
1 - Albert the Great
2 - Aptitude
3 - El Corredor
4 - Monarchos
5 - Point Given
6 - Tiznow
and
7 - other
Considering there were only 7 choices (including --other--)...it surprised me that only approx 16% selected OTHER...(at least so far).
Do you agree with the approx 84% of the votes cast that the Leading Freshman Sire of 2005 will be one of the 6 stallions named...
1 - Albert the Great - (unraced at 2)
2 - Aptitude - (placed once at 2 from 2 starts)
3 - El Corredor - (maiden winner at 2 from 2 starts)
4 - Monarchos - (placed once at 2 from 2 starts)
5 - Point Given - (G1 & G3 winner...plus 2nd in 2 G1's incl BC Juv) at 2
6 - Tiznow - (unraced at 2)
I suggest it may not be difficult to understand why Point Given (at least based on 2 year-old performance) has received approx 31% of the votes (on the poll) as choice for Leading Freshman Sire of 2005...
...but do you believe that the North American...Leading Freshman Sire of 2005 will come from this group of only six?
Obviously he may...but consider this...some (but certainly not all) other stallions with first runners in 2005 are:
City Zip - (multiple graded SW at 2...incl DH in G1)
Delaware Township - (SW at 2)
Disco Rico - (SW at 2)
Exchange Rate - (winner and multiple graded sp at 2)
Five Star Day - (unraced at 2)
Flame Thrower - (multiple graded SW at 2)
Forest Camp - (graded SW at 2)
Freud - (placed once at 2 from 3 starts)
Put It Back - (placed twice at 2 from 2 starts)
Snuck In - (multiple SW at 2)
Songandaprayer - (SW at 2)
Trippi - (unraced at 2)
...and there are many others.
Who would you add to the list (if any)?
and...
Who is YOUR pick for North America's...Leading Freshman Sire of 2005?
Respectfully
Leading Freshman Sire of 2005...an easy choice...or not?
Moderators: Roguelet, WaveMaster, madelyn
Hi FOS,
Tiznow and El Corredor are the only ones on that list that make sense to me.
I'm very tempted to pick Tiznow for Champion Freshman Sire because he got some very nice racemares for a 1st year stallion; but I'll go with Trippi because of the speed (beat More Than Ready over 7f), numbers (very good quantity of support), auction results (in spite of several individuals going for over $150,000, the median is still $47,500 from 38 yearlings sold); and perhaps most importantly his being End Sweep over Valid Appeal.
And not to mention he's in pretty good hands.
-llbean
Tiznow and El Corredor are the only ones on that list that make sense to me.
I'm very tempted to pick Tiznow for Champion Freshman Sire because he got some very nice racemares for a 1st year stallion; but I'll go with Trippi because of the speed (beat More Than Ready over 7f), numbers (very good quantity of support), auction results (in spite of several individuals going for over $150,000, the median is still $47,500 from 38 yearlings sold); and perhaps most importantly his being End Sweep over Valid Appeal.
And not to mention he's in pretty good hands.
-llbean
I do not have the most important numbers in front of me being the amount of live foals in 03 from each of these stallions. Forest Camp could be the standout of this group but something tells me he didnt cover that many mares his first season at stud but I may be wrong not that many I mean in less than 80. Five Star Day was hot back then but being out of a Vanlandinham mare was all the info I needed to pass on him. Flame Thrower & Delaware Township both had alot of ability but are just too short bred for me to consider successful stallion prospects. City Zip, Disco Rico, Exchange Rate, Freud & Put it Back I dont think will make it as none ever excited me too much. Trippi is an interesting horse as he could pick up where End Sweep left off. He is def bred to get early colts even though he was unraced at 2. He did have plenty of speed & will have the nunbers & could be a leading first crop sire of 05. Snuck In will be the sleeper of this fairly weak bunch. He may not be heavy on stakes winners but I will bet he will be right there close to the top with number of winners. He is not normally my kind of horse but I really do like Songandaprayer. I do not know how his first book of mares looked being at a smaller farm to begin with. His colts should be speed speed & more speed with enough to last a mile but may not last long. I could see one by him even being a prime BC JUv contender. Aptitude I do not like at all esp at 2. Monarchos I am not very high on either. Point Given, I see him being very hit or miss his % of winners will be low but may have that one or two big one that keeps him in the top 5. Albert The Great may be a bit of a sleeper later but not with 2 year olds. Tiznow I want to love & will be rooting for them but my head tells me they will just be average maybe even below. El Corredor I like alot but I'm not sure he will lead the freshman list this year but should be top 5 based on a lower but high % of winners. I expect him to make a very good & maybe leading sire in the future. He & Forest Camp I think are standouts of this group. I know I am leaving someone of quality off as I cant think of anymore of this stallion crop off the top of my head but it is a pretty weak bunch esp when compared to the one it follows but here are my top 5 in order
1 Snuck In
2 Trippi
3 Forest Camp
4 Point Given
5 Songandaprayer
1 Snuck In
2 Trippi
3 Forest Camp
4 Point Given
5 Songandaprayer
Re: Leading Freshman Sire of 2005...an easy choice...or not?
FOS wrote:Only 7 choices were offered and they are:
1 - Albert the Great
2 - Aptitude
3 - El Corredor
4 - Monarchos
5 - Point Given
6 - Tiznow
and
7 - other
I agree with you that Point Given is not an obvious choice to lead the Freshman sire list. He and Tiznow were impressive as racehorses, but neither strikes me by pedigree or conformation as supplier of large qty of 2 yo winners. (I agree with TomFool's conclusions regarding Tiznow, though I also root for him - his presence and his 2nd Breeders Cup win were for me, breathtaking). Of those on the TT list, I'd choose Other - and then El Corredor - who has a lot going for him, pedigree, conformation, race record and farm support. I think the Albert the Greats will be better 3 yos. Monarchos and Aptitude may make the top 10-20, but I don't think either one will lead the list in 2005.
Of those on your list, off the cuff without doing any extra analysis - I'd say City Zip (he was an outstanding 2 yo, and the pedigree is v. promising for 2 yo success, though I don't know the quality of the mares he got), Exchange Rate (like his look but Danzig is for me a bit of a question mark), Songandaprayer and Freud are promising. The buzz on the latter two seems to be pretty loud in pinhooking land.
Why not "sponsor" a little pedigree query competiion? Pick any 10 freshman sires, those with the highest $ (won cumulatively by the progeny of their selections) according to say, the Bloodhorse or TT or Brisnet, etc., at the end of 2005 win a "prize." Other TB sites do this - might be kind of fun here - with our opinionated members!
I will donate a prize. Perhaps others might, as well.
Florida sires have the benefit of sprinter mare populations, good weather, and lots of Graded stakes and Florida-bred stakes for 2yo's. It makes sense that in recent years the likes of Successful Appeal, Yes It's True, Valid Expectations topped the freshman sire lists. The expected Kentucky superhorses barely hold their own in comparison with the Florida boys. Of course, the smart farm managers in charge of the second-tier stallions will send the precocious ones to Florida for stud duty in hopes of maximizing their return in this coveted category of freshman sire. The better quality racehorses in Kentucky will be bred to better mares, who probably have more stamina in their pedigrees, and may be later bloomers.
So I would say, the category "other" is by far the best choice in the freshman sire contest, as past results have proven.
So I would say, the category "other" is by far the best choice in the freshman sire contest, as past results have proven.
Rocking H
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Derby2004
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I have been talking to the stallion manager at Cloverleaf, he states that Alke, Flame Thrower and Repent have gotten the best mares. He is really high on Alke though. States he is geeting a lot of real quality mares. He also said that Snuck In got some decent mares, but not great. So he will really have to prove himself. But he did breed over 300 mares in the last 3 years. Alke was a FAST 2 year old getting great mares, so look for him to be in the top in 2008 freshman list. 4k is mighty attractive also considering Strong Hope is 30k. my thoughts
hi Derby2004
Yes there is a definite resemblance between Montbook and Snuck In...but I suggest that in the flesh Montbrook has a more robust shoulder and quarters...and carries himself in a more forward and fluid fashion.
Snuck In also seems to have a bit more length to his neck (which seems to be reflected in the foals I've seen).
I get a sense that the Snuck Ins may like a bit more distance than many of the Montbrooks seem to thrive at.
Snuck In is a nice horse...and could be a sleeper.
Respectfully
Yes there is a definite resemblance between Montbook and Snuck In...but I suggest that in the flesh Montbrook has a more robust shoulder and quarters...and carries himself in a more forward and fluid fashion.
Snuck In also seems to have a bit more length to his neck (which seems to be reflected in the foals I've seen).
I get a sense that the Snuck Ins may like a bit more distance than many of the Montbrooks seem to thrive at.
Snuck In is a nice horse...and could be a sleeper.
Respectfully
Speaking of mare quality - does anyone know where one might find the CI of mares going to stallions (especially freshman year stallions) earliest and cheapest? I guess the information is probably available after the Jockey Club publishes the Report of Mares Bred, but where, how soon, and at what cost?
Years ago I subscribed to the "MarketWatch" magazine and I am loathe to admit (because of its outrageous cost at what, $345 annually?) that it was an extraordinary source of information - which often included the CI of mares bred to freshman stallions. Is there any other way to get that, and other substantive distilled info, without paying a king's ransom?
Years ago I subscribed to the "MarketWatch" magazine and I am loathe to admit (because of its outrageous cost at what, $345 annually?) that it was an extraordinary source of information - which often included the CI of mares bred to freshman stallions. Is there any other way to get that, and other substantive distilled info, without paying a king's ransom?
hi guys...hurleynyc and TomFool,
hurleynyc and TomFool...you both mentioned Songandaprayer. I've seen more than a few by him.
They're (for the most part) tall...and leggy...but also seem to be early-maturing types with plenty of bone. They appear to be "bigger" and stronger than many of their counterparts...which (when all things are considered) may bode well for Songandaprayer's chances for success as a freshman sire.
Most seem to look-the-part...are well-balanced and proportioned...and some sold quite "big" (certainly in relation to the stud fee) which seems to support the freshman-sire premise.
Not only do many look like they could be candidates for successful 2 year-old racing but also 3 year-old racing etc...some maybe at a very high level.
I suggest that it's difficult not to like them.
Respectfully
hurleynyc and TomFool...you both mentioned Songandaprayer. I've seen more than a few by him.
They're (for the most part) tall...and leggy...but also seem to be early-maturing types with plenty of bone. They appear to be "bigger" and stronger than many of their counterparts...which (when all things are considered) may bode well for Songandaprayer's chances for success as a freshman sire.
Most seem to look-the-part...are well-balanced and proportioned...and some sold quite "big" (certainly in relation to the stud fee) which seems to support the freshman-sire premise.
Not only do many look like they could be candidates for successful 2 year-old racing but also 3 year-old racing etc...some maybe at a very high level.
I suggest that it's difficult not to like them.
Respectfully