Half Ours?

[Derby2004]

Any idea why Taylor Made dumped Half Ours? His yearlings did Ok at keeneland, but they were bred at the 15k stud fee. And Im sure the fact hes in La brought the prices down.

[da hossman]

Taylor Made did not "dump" Half Ours - like several other farms (i.e. Hill n Dale w/ Shakespeare) they decided to send him to a regional market where he could still draw large books of mares during his "bubble years" in KY. During his "bubble years" HO would be lucky to breed 50 mares in KY. Think of it as maximizing his income potential prior to his first foals racing...and potentially giving him another home if he is not good enough to stay in KY.

[Derby2004]

ok, lets do some math. If hes lucky he will breed 50 mares in Ky. But at a 10-15k stud fee that comes to 500k-750k in stud fees. Am I right? In LA he is standing for 4500. If he bred 100 mares in the bayou, he still wouldnt be touching the ky income. Try again. They dumped him. If they hadnt he would be at a smaller farm in KY. Yes they might still own some of him, but they dumped him. And I dont see why. He was a 6.1 mil sale at Kee Nov, and from a good family. Yankee Gentleman whom is also in La is turning out to be a decent stallion, from him Ky crops with the former gov.

[LB]

ok, lets do some math. If hes lucky he will breed 50 mares in Ky. But at a 10-15k stud fee that comes to 500k-750k in stud fees. Am I right? In LA he is standing for 4500. If he bred 100 mares in the bayou, he still wouldnt be touching the ky income. Try again. They dumped him. If they hadnt he would be at a smaller farm in KY. Yes they might still own some of him, but they dumped him. And I dont see why. He was a 6.1 mil sale at Kee Nov, and from a good family. Yankee Gentleman whom is also in La is turning out to be a decent stallion, from him Ky crops with the former gov.

Stud fees drop in the 3rd and 4th years, especially now when unproven sires aren't as popular as they have been recently. So your assumption that Half Ours would have stood for 10-15k is seriously flawed. As for the number of mares he'll breed, the competition among stallions is much easier in Louisiana than in Kentucky--it's likely he'll be bred to more mares there than he would here.

I'm not sure why his purchase price should have any bearing on his usefulness as a stallion (see The Green Monkey). I also don't understand the comment about a "smaller farm in KY". Most likely Half Ours went where someone wanted him and was willing to pay for him. And that turned out to be Louisiana.

[fastappy]

Half Ours was a $625,000 yearling, purchased by Buzz Chase. He sold for 6.1 million in the 2006 Nov. mixed sale only because Aaron Jones bid the horse up to dissolve a partnership with Schwartz, while the horse was still in training with Todd Pletcher. Two guys trying to outbid one another.

Half Ours only bred 62 mares (including Jones') in 2009 with 44 live foals. We can speculate that he got even fewer in 2010 where all breeding was down considerably, across the country.

[da hossman]

Taylor Made (with Mrs. Jones) still owns Half Ours - or at the very least the controlling interest. If they were truly "dumping" him they would not have retained sgnificant ownership. Furthermore they are not dummies, so why would they "dump" him before his first foals run?

LB and Fast Appy make excellent points also proving there is no "dumping" - to be brief, Derby2004 is wrong to say Half Ours was "dumped."

[dublino]

If they believe in this horse so much why aren't they standing him until his runners reach the track.

So what if he only breeds 20 mares this year, if they believe in him keep him at thier farm, oh thats right he was dumped.

[Derby2004]

Wasn't dumped? He was a 15k stallion at taylor made whose first yearlings just web through the ring. But he was a 4k stud at clear creek before the foals even made it to keeneland. And I bring up the 6.1 million to say he must be a good looking animal. And smaller farms meaning other farms in ky that might have interest. But they packed him up and sent him to the gators before he could do anything. Maybe y'all have suppressed feelings about being dumped and are in denial. But when a horse starts in at 15 and ends up a 4 k stud in la, he got dumped. Simple and short answer wouldn't been "he wasn't popular and didn't garner the interest of Ky breeders".

[da hossman]

Dublino it has nothing to do with "believing in their horse" it is all about maximizing their income while they can (knowing that only 1 out of 9 stallions that start in KY are still there 6 years later).

In KY the day board on a stallion is $65-$85 ($24,000/year to $31,000/year) ....in LA try $35-$55/day ($13,000/year to $20,000/year).

Advertising costs drop by at least 1/3 when a stallion moves from KY to a regional market as regional publications & direct mail are that much cheaper and more effective. One still has the Bloodhorse Stallion Register & possibly the Thoroughbred Times SR, but one would not run $3500 Bloodhorse full pages.

Back to basic math - $4500 (LA) x 70 live foals = $300,000
$5000 (KY) x 35 live foals = $175,000

This is a business, they are trying to make as much money as they can with every stallion.

Also of note is the fact that most stallions that "make it" with their first crop experience a lull when their much smaller 3rd and 4th year crops are running. The big crops brought about by his first crop success hit the track several years later. This lull can influence public perception and fashionability (Officer may be an exampe of this - I have not checked the foal crop numbers but would anticipate he is.)

[da hossman]

Hi Derby2004:

I have no suppressed feelings about Half Ours - I did not use him and did not recommend him as I believed him to be over-priced and over-hyped. The $6.1mm actually translates to $3.05mm as Jones already owned 50% of the horse - still way too much money.

Your "not popular" comment may hold a little water as he bred 104 mares in his 1st year and dropped to 62 in his 2nd year. But that is the new reality of the stallion market - in the past one could count on 2 full books for a properly priced new stallion, now it is much tougher in that 2nd year. And again I think he was overpriced from the beginning.

As far as smaller farms in KY are concerned, why would they have an interest in standing a horse they knew would be entering his bubble years?

If Half Ours makes it watch how fast he returns to Taylor Made KY, then consider whether he was "dumped" or merely moved to maximize income. Don't forget LA has Stallion Awards (KY does not) and a better Breeders Awards program than KY - more potential incoome.

[LB]

The notion that a stallion was dumped because he leaves Kentucky is akin to that other internet "truism": if a first year stallion doesn't have successful runners by midsummer, he's already a failure. Both indicate a rush to judgement and a lack of understanding of all the facts.

Right now farms are seriously needing to maximize use of their assets. Just about everyone in the TB industry bought high and now needs to sell low--and stallion owners are being hit particularly hard. Lion Heart currently stands #20 on the general sires list. Was he dumped when he was sold to Turkey? What about Johannesburg?

It seems to me that the only person who's in denial is the one who, when presented with facts that don't support his belief, insists that the facts must be wrong.

[dublino]

Lion Heart currently stands #20 on the general sires list. Was he dumped when he was sold to Turkey? What about Johannesburg?

Yes both dumped

[LB]

Lion Heart currently stands #20 on the general sires list. Was he dumped when he was sold to Turkey? What about Johannesburg?

Yes both dumped

OK, I'll bite. Why?

Please explain why a farm would "dump" two stallions whose offspring were doing well at the track and whom breeders were supporting wholeheartedly.
In 2009, Lion Heart bred 180 mares--the 4th highest number of any U.S stallion. Johannesburg bred 134--34th on the list and just 1 below the number of mares bred by both Tiznow and Malibu Moon.
In 2008, Lion Heart bred 215 mares, Johannesburg, 139.
As I said above, Lion Heart currently stands at #20 on the General Sires List for progeny earnings. Johannesburg is #24.
Looking at those numbers, I don't see the part where either of those stallions is a failure. So what would be the rational for dumping them?

[dublino]

Who said they were a failure?
They were dumped, how much hassle was it to get Lion Heart those 180 mares, how many paid the full service fee?

How likely was the stallion going to increase to a $50k or more stud?
Never in a lifetime.
His AEI is 1.42 compared to 1.41 what does that tell you?

He was dumped.

[Derby2004]

Lets look at another angle. Half Ours started out at 15k. Yes, overpriced. Even on a bubble year why would Taylor offer him up for a third of what his normal fee is? i can see 8-10k. So i dont think that 5k fee in the equation above has bearing. And why not do what everybody else does? OVERHYPE him. He was a good 2yo by a hot stallion (in some people standards). So you have your precocious speed horse waiting for his legs to fall off. Its what American breeders pray for everyday in our stallions. Fact: Taylor screwed up bad on his starting fee at 15k. Fact: They couldnt drop it third year due to a huge decrease in number of mares bred. Why you ask? Oh Ill tell you little birdie: Because the big boy breeders would question too much. So they shipped him to La to salvage any money in him. In essence: DUMPED. Now he might come out of the gate with some bad ass runners. In that case he's on a first class trailer back to the bluegrass state. So yes, I will agree a smart move by Taylor and the Jones'. But still dumped due to their own mistake. Should have come in a 5-7500 stud with a selective book of mares that would optimize his chances. And what the crap has Lion Heart gotten on the track other than the fluke Line of David? Out of 2,420 mares bred a year, he shouldve turned a good horse by now. He only has 3% SWs, so yeah he got dumped.