First Year stallions of 2010

[Tappiano]

When you look at the number of mares sent to these first year stallions it validates the farms decisions to price incoming one's for 2011 where they are. The breeders have failed to send a message to the farms. Yes a lot might have been their own stock and there might have been deals, but it still shows the demand is high when proven one's attracted significantly less.

I did not look at fees....these are just from Kentucky.

Thewayyouare 100 (That didn't pay for his oats because he was sent to Ireland)
Colonel John - 135
Cowboy Cal - 128
Dunkirk - 186
Parading - 97
Zensational - 135
Old Fashioned - 124
Pioneerofthenile - 130

If the blood horse or thoroughbred times would update their online registers it would be easy to sort it and see what percentage of next year's foal crops are by unproven and new sires. Out of the 40,576 mares bred this year, the numbers above are just under 1,000.

[LB]

What you have failed to factor in is that all of those first year stallions that you cited stood for stud fees that were significantly lower than they would have been three years ago. Their stud fees were attractive for the potential that they offered--that's why they drew big books. The breeders didn't fail to send a message; they took a good deal where they saw one.

[Tappiano]

I don't have to factor in anything I don't want to, it's my thread. MY point is that they continue to retire them en mass because there is DEMAND. It does not matter what they price them as there is no price point or a point where people say thanks but no thanks. QR is not an eclipse award winner, he's at 35K and he will get a lot of mares... he's one example.

There is no good deal on a first year stallion, you don't even know if your foal will be born with a horn. In hindsight it could, but not when a horse has not sired a single foal. I cannot even say my FREE season is a good deal because I have no clue what I an going to get as GiGi is a maiden, but to me a good deal is one where I pay 5K for a season advertised at 10K.

[LB]

You're right, it is your thread. I regret I offered an opinion--though I can't imagine why you bothered starting it if you didn't want people to respond.

[Tappiano]

Because you never have anything kind to say about a thing I post on this board. It has nothing to do about an opinion, you could have said "I think" instead you say "You failed", big difference isn't there?

[Tappiano]

Here are the numbers for Dunkirk
33 mares entered
16 were sold, average 23,377.79
Of those, 8 sold above the stud fee of 10K
Of the 8, 4 sold for more than 2.5 times the stud fee.

If I include the RNA's, the average drops to 16,186.57.

Colonel John had 20 in the sale, 14 that sold for an average of 32,633.40
Including RNA's in the average would bring it to 20,608.33

So who got the good deal ? The one's who got the mares for less than the stud fees?

Giant's Causeway's average is a mind numbing

[Hotwalker]

Colonel John is an interesting prospect because he won on multiple surfaces and on both coasts. How many mares did Kodiak Kowboy get? He had speed, durability, won as a juvenile...a great combo in my opinion if you're going to invest time/money/energy into a first year stallion.

Okay, did a little research. He bred 79. Maybe Vinery was selective with mare selection, which bodes even better for this guy's stallion future.

[madelyn]

Sometimes mares sold in foal are either (1) property of the stallion owner or the farm he stands at (and bred on a free "farm" season) or (2) sold as a mare share. In that case, since there is no stud fee, there isn't really a "loser".

A pal of mine who is a trainer did a mare share with one of his OTT fillies last spring to Ghostzapper. They sold the mare at KEENOV for $50 or 55K. Who got hurt? No one. And somebody got a GREAT deal on a young mare in foal to Ghostzapper. That pal usually ends up with massive board bills or giving his fillies away...

[Tappiano]

Madelyn
My point is these are freshman sires who have yet to produce a foal. Why are so many in the industry bound and determined to patronize them when, for all they know, they will sire a unicorn? Further to that is that for LESS money you can get to a stallion who does not sire unicorns and in most cases, typically gets you a horse that can get to the track. His sales average is higher and you have a pretty good idea what you will get.

All sales statistics do not take into account whether a season was free, it's based on the advertised stud fee.

[madelyn]

It's a business where hopes and dreams always exceed reality. The hype of the new sire has yet to have the bubble burst.

[Tappiano]

Yes and therefore there is no incentive for the owners to keep their horses in training, is there?

[Sysonby]

Madelyn
My point is these are freshman sires who have yet to produce a foal. Why are so many in the industry bound and determined to patronize them when, for all they know, they will sire a unicorn? Further to that is that for LESS money you can get to a stallion who does not sire unicorns and in most cases, typically gets you a horse that can get to the track. His sales average is higher and you have a pretty good idea what you will get.

Or you could have gone to Mr P for $4000 or Storm Cat for $10,000 or Distorted Humor for $10,000 or Tapit for $15,000 etc etc. Where it got stupid was a couple of years ago where all of the stallion managers wanted the upside before it ever happened.

Anyway no one is forcing you to do it. I guess I don't understand the complaint. You should be happy that other people want to take a flyer which will presumably put less demand on the proven stallions you want to patronize.

[fastappy]

I don't know how the books are filling, but I suspect a lot of the regional breeders will cut back significantly on sending mares out of state. Just a feeling, because the economy is not taking a significant upturn, breeding is down across the board, and basically the successful sales results appear to show significant weakness at the bottom end.

I see alot of Kentucky farms raising the stud fees on stallions or not lowering them, whereas other farms like Walmac are quick to respond. In any case Kentucky mirrors Hollywood in selling dreams, much of which is a facade.

The bottom line is the market will correct this and the Thoroughbred industry will further diminish.

[Tappiano]

Madelyn
My point is these are freshman sires who have yet to produce a foal. Why are so many in the industry bound and determined to patronize them when, for all they know, they will sire a unicorn? Further to that is that for LESS money you can get to a stallion who does not sire unicorns and in most cases, typically gets you a horse that can get to the track. His sales average is higher and you have a pretty good idea what you will get.

Or you could have gone to Mr P for $4000 or Storm Cat for $10,000 or Distorted Humor for $10,000 or Tapit for $15,000 etc etc. Where it got stupid was a couple of years ago where all of the stallion managers wanted the upside before it ever happened.

Anyway no one is forcing you to do it. I guess I don't understand the complaint. You should be happy that other people want to take a flyer which will presumably put less demand on the proven stallions you want to patronize.

There is NO INCENTIVE for an owner to KEEP A HORSE IN TRAINING! People whine and kvetch about horses being whisked off to stud and THEY CONTINUE to patronize them which just JUSTIFIES to the farm owner that THEIR BUSINESS MODEL is working! Everyone else can sputter and fail but they will NOT Because they have GUARANTEED INCOME, year after year after year. I further illustrated that by providing numbers, but apparently that seems to have gone over people's heads. I even went further and showed that the majority of the breeders who went to THOSE stallions will or have already lost money. The one who does not lose the money is the stallion farm. Even better, these farms know that they can always sell to South Korea, Japan, India, Turkey and other countries any time they want.

[Fireslam]

You make no sense at all. You have shown 1000 mares going to freshman sires, out of over 40,000. You show 8 stallions out of how many hundreds (maybe thousands) at stud. Its been proven over and over again, from people who actually breed mares, that they much prefer going to proven horses, and the proven horses are booked up much quicker than the new horses. Some people have bred to unproven horses, because theres no good proven horses left. I can tell you that for a fact, because I know that has happened to people I know. I know of over a dozen (maybe more) proven horses that are full right now; I dont know of any unprovens that are full.