Invasor [ARG]

[clh]

You're welcome! I'm learning a lot and I really enjoy hearing about owning a race horse like Vader. When I was kid all I wanted was a horse.

I found two more 2 yo Invasor fillies, they are in France, unraced but in training, and belong to Hamdan al Maktoum.

Taraayef f (in France with F. Rohaut)
http://www2.france-galop.com/fgweb/Doma ... l=46987002
Aghadeer f (in France with JC Rouget)
http://www2.france-galop.com/FGWeb/doma ... ments.aspx

Well had you lived near me in OH you could have had first had experience with horses - I was always looking for good reliable help with the mares, foals, and yearlings .

I've got a few pictures of Vader as a young one on my facebook page (not very good I admit) if you are on fb. I need to download the recent photos of him but just don't ever seem to get around to it.

[Brigitte]

Too bad I can't turn back the clock and move to OH. I'm not on FB, but you could post your favorite Vader picture here ...

Invasor's first winner, Wonder of it All, is Hip 0599 in the Keeneland Jan 2012 Sale. She's was mated to Bellamy Road. I suppose that's the fastest way to get your money back, but how disappointing.

Three other Invasor 2 yos who are unraced and not in Equibase showed up in that sale, consigned by Shadwell:
Ausus f Hip 1428, Waafir c Hip 1577 and Al Faatik c Hip 1579.

That leaves only 7 unaccounted for.

[clh]

WOW - I'm surprised that they would breed a two year old. I sure wouldn't. But who am I to say? I just think that is a little young for a filly to be bred.

When I download some the newest pics of Vader I will post them here so you can see the boy Brigette .

Just to brag a little on my part (or Vader's) - I got Shadwell's stallion's brochure in the mail this week and on Invasor's page was Midnight Vader's name along with his MSW win and his stakes places in the Kindergarden Stakes and the Hoover Stakes. As far as I know it was the first horse I've bred that has ever made it on the stallion's brochure page .

[Brigitte]

The filly Gagne is entered 12/17 in a 25,000 mcl with a purse of $20,000 at Laurel, Race 9. Gagne means win in French, here's to that!

Princess Kiha is also running 12/17, bidding to be Invasor's 4th winner, at Golden Gate Fields in a 20,000 mcl, purse 13,000. Race 6.

[Brigitte]

Gagne was 4th in her debut and Kiha came on late to be third.

Here is the commentary from Bloodhorse Maidenwatch plus replays for both races.
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/maidenwatch/archive/2011/12/17/a-flame-run.aspx

According to the chart CloudsofTitian bore in and bumped Gagne at the start - hard enough so the jock lost his irons and his horse came in last. So Gagne's debut was not uneventful.

[Brigitte]

Kollos is entered in Race 10 at Fairgrounds, a $10,000 mcl at 5f on 12/23. The purse is $17,000.

Kollos was scratched from an mcl at Hawthorne, has new owners: Gennadi & Dorothea Dorochenko. He has one official work at Fairgrounds. He went 3f from the gate and was 1/9. Early speed could keep him out of trouble. Two more furlongs to go.

[clh]

Midnight Vader and Not An Altar Boy both have facebook pages up - would be great if everyone "liked" them .

Vader is scheduled to run again on Friday 12/23 at Mountaineer. Haven't talked to Ivan this week but once I do I'll see what he thinks.

[Tappiano]

My colt has one too great way of keeping up with him. Only problem is my friends seem to notice when there are new pictures of him before I get to see them...

[Brigitte]

I noticed #1 & #3 (the pacemaker) from his last are in the race...

[Brigitte]

Golf Juan is running at Deauville tomorrow in the first race, a 9.5 f claimer, prize 20,000 euros. He's entry #13. I love the names, wasn't Keyser Soze the villain in The Usual Suspects? Mille Waki has a nice record, is 1 or 2 in all but one of the picks (which follow the list of runners). 0p in the list of race results means never a factor. Golf Juan was 8p, 8p.

http://www.zone-turf.fr/programmes/r3-d ... ml?#152289[url][/url]

[Brigitte]

Golf Juan was 3d of 15 at 1900m (9.45 f) on good turf. He earned 3000 Euros. He lost by 4 lengths, last time he was 8th by 30 lengths in a shorter race, so he was much improved by his break, and he's older, too.

[clh]

Which in my mind just proves that Invasor doesn't really throw 2 year old runners. Hopefully we can see some really nice 3 year old runners in 2012.

[Brigitte]

Invasor had speed to burn plus endurance - when he finally raced. His race record is far superior from 6f -12f to the stallions, both sprinters and routers, whose 2 year old progeny are earning big bucks. Is Invasor not passing on what he had (like Secretariat) or do his offspring develop late?

I'm a scientist so I looked at the numbers for freshman stallions, starting with a few at the top of the list, and some others higher than Invasor (who is at 50). There's too little data to be sure of what I found, but it's interesting and it makes me think 2012 will be a good year.

1. Is the precocity of the stallion a factor? Maybe, but of the top 3 only Scat Daddy was hot stuff at 2. Hard Spun won 2 restricted stakes in PA and Corinthian won an msw and only got good at 4. Not a big factor, probably.

2. The number of runners is obviously going to be a factor in progeny earnings, and the top 3 have big numbers. But what about the percentage of wins per start? The top three are at 11%, 13%, 15%, the middle group 12%,8%, 9%, 15% - varies a lot. Invasor is way low at 5%, but if just two of his many seconds had won....

3. So I looked at the percentage of placings and got a surprise. The top three are at 43%, 43%, 45%, the middle group 43%, 36%, 40% and 36%. Invasor is tied for first place at 45% with Scat Daddy.

4. The big surprise is the win distances. Invasor, and only invasor, had max and min distances at 8.11 f. The next highest avg maxes were 6.73, 6.74 in the top 3 and a 6.62 in the middle group. Jazil, Belmont winner not in either group had 7.1

Big progeny earnings at two come from fast horses at short distances. Three year olds need wins at longer distances to shine. Invasors are just getting going at 8f ...

Kollos was second out of the gate and that's as good as it got. He was 6th at 3/8, 9th to the stretch and ended up 10th & last. Maybe his two listed works weren't enough.

[clh]

I believe you have to factor in the dam when looking at how well a horse will run; and I really don't believe a two year old is a good indication of how well a horse will do at the track because I don't think they are developed enough physically and mentally. Too many times we've seen stellar 2 year olds who have flopped as a three year old, and we've seen two and three year olds who couldn't run a lick, but when they are four year olds they run really well, so its a tough call Brigitte. I love seeing statistics, but there are so many other things that factor in - whether the horse loves what he does, who the trainer is (sometimes you switch trainers and the horse does better/worse), surface, ect... That being said, when you are breeding your mare to a stallion you DO look at what that stallion did at the track - did he win at two? What kind of surface did he like? What was his distance? What was his earning total? Did he get injured early in his career? etc... You then HOPE you get that perfect runner .

[Brigitte]

Galilee makes his debut for Michael Matz in Race 6 at Gulfstream, a $25,000 mcl with a $22,500 purse. One mile.
[url]http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/GP123111USA-EQB.html#RACE6
[/url]

Holy Invader returns for Dutrow at Aqueduct in a $65,000 msw at a mile on the inner track.
http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/AQU123111USA-EQB.html#RACE3

clh: Yes to everything you said!

I thought I threw in a disclaimer - insufficient data. What I found was not statistically significant, just interesting to me as a fan.

The dam contributes half the genetic material, of course. With Invasor's race record you might think his mares would be as good as those mated to the top freshman stallions. But checking that out would take many, many hours - not to mention that you'd mate different types of mares to Invasor than to a sprinter.

I bet breeders also look at a stallion's progeny - so here's to Vader! Let him be a monster in 2012! A bunch of cyber carrots to him, and Happy New Year to you!