Hard Spun

Discussion and analysis of thoroughbred stallions.

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bdw0617
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Hard Spun

Postby bdw0617 » Sat Jul 09, 2011 10:16 am

off to a blazing star. 13 starters, 6 winners, a grade 2 winner in the UK this morning.

of the big darley three that retired that year, Hard spun is demolishing the other 2 at this point
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Postby Zahrah » Sat Jul 09, 2011 3:18 pm

He's certainly off to a terrific start.

The Street Sense's have a ton of hype as well. I wouldn't be shocked to see them come running as the year goes on and they have a chance to develop.

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Postby bdw0617 » Sun Jul 10, 2011 10:58 am

street sense got his first winner 2 days ago

i haven't seen anything about any any given saturday's. i'm also looking forward to seeiong discreet cat's offspring. all in all this should be a good year for new stallions
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Postby griff » Sun Jul 10, 2011 1:50 pm

Agree a G-2 out of his first 13 starters is a great feat; however it's always been a puzzel to me that a win to starter ratio of around 50% is acceptable, much less great.

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Postby bdw0617 » Sun Jul 10, 2011 1:59 pm

I think hat's more than acceptable in july of his first year. alot of them probably haven't even started training yet.
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Postby griff » Sun Jul 10, 2011 2:06 pm

last time I looked the top five stallions in KY were averaging around 50% winners to starters.

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Postby LB » Sun Jul 10, 2011 4:32 pm

griff wrote:last time I looked the top five stallions in KY were averaging around 50% winners to starters.

griff


Current top 5 Kentucky stallions (info from the Bloodhorse Stallion Register) percentage of winners to starters:

Tapit 71%
Giant's Causeway 63%
Smart Strike 74%
Distorted Humor 78%
Medaglia d'Oro 60%

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Postby griff » Sun Jul 10, 2011 6:44 pm

You are correct; I was looking at this years data which compares to Hard Spun's this year data..

Giant Causeway has so far this year had 267 runners with 88 winners for a win to starter ratio of 33% which does make Hard Spun's 46% look good.

Still even when I look at all years data 63% of Giant Causeway's get, that get to a track, win a race which means people are paying a $85,000 stud fee with the knowledge that only about half of his foals ever get to a racetrack and that 37% of the ones that race will never win a race..

Still, that's better economics than when people were paying $500k to breed to Storm cat who had similar stats.

And still don't understand why a 63% win to started ratio is acceptable, much less something to advertise.

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Postby Zahrah » Sun Jul 10, 2011 7:37 pm

The top stallions daughters are often worth more unraced than they are raced if they don't look like they're going to be stakes/graded stakes horses. That right there takes quite a few out of the equation.

Value the high percentage of runners from regional stallions, but remember those horses have next to no value as broodmares or otherwise if they don't start and win.

Not all stats are created equal when you're considering the value variable.

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Postby griff » Mon Jul 11, 2011 8:00 am

do people really pay hat king of money hoping to get a well bred brood mare?

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Postby LB » Mon Jul 11, 2011 8:34 am

griff wrote:do people really pay hat king of money hoping to get a well bred brood mare?

giff


No, they hope to get a wellbred racefilly with broodmare potential. But when it becomes clear during the training process that there isn't much talent there, many subscribe to the theory "unraced is better than unplaced".

Don't forget, with the really wellbred fillies--at least until recently when the industry tanked--you don't have the option of dropping down into maiden claiming ranks or you'll lose your filly. So they needed to be capable of winning in MSW company.

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Postby Zahrah » Mon Jul 11, 2011 8:46 am

No, I think they go in knowing they have the luxury of having OPTIONS with the foal, especially if it's a filly, whether she's a runner or not.

edit: Beat me to it, LB!

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Postby Roger » Wed Jul 13, 2011 2:09 pm

I've always liked Hard Spun. I think its to early to say that he is not getting a good percentage of winners from starters. They are only 2 and its only July. I feel strongly that his numbers will improve with time. It would not be a surprise if some of the better ones don't start until they are three.
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Postby griff » Thu Jul 14, 2011 9:18 am

So a well bred mare that can't run is a valuable brood mare while a very very well bred stallion that cant run, like Kennedy, is worth less than half of his $7,500 claiming price..

I know I'm not the sharpest blade i the drawer but have to admit I still don't get it.. I think it goes this; "All the animals at animal farm are equal but some are more equal than others.

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Postby LB » Thu Jul 14, 2011 10:06 am

griff wrote:So a well bred mare that can't run is a valuable brood mare while a very very well bred stallion that cant run, like Kennedy, is worth less than half of his $7,500 claiming price..

I know I'm not the sharpest blade i the drawer but have to admit I still don't get it.. I think it goes this; "All the animals at animal farm are equal but some are more equal than others.

griff


Well both the wellbred mare and the wellbred stallion have to potential to produce better than they were--but it's the math and the opportunities that will work out totally differently.

Someone can take that mare and breed her to a good, proven, stallion and see what she can produce. The risk is there but the financial outlay isn't huge. What are you going to do with a smiliarly wellbred stallion? If the owner has mares, he can start breeding the horse--carrying both him and the mares for 4-5 years until he sees if the stallion "hits". If he doesn't have mares, then he's got to buy some to get the process started. Proven mares--say something the calibre of the stallion that our mythical mare (above) was bred to--are very expensive. So most likely the stallion will be bred to cheaper mares, which will lessen his chances of succeeding.

The finances, and the ease of maximizing his/her potential, work in favor of the mare and against the stallion. Hence the difference in price.