Fun with Freshman

Joltman · Postby **Joltman** » Sat Sep 15, 2012 7:22 pm

Years ago I learned a lot of lessons from a book called, 'How to Lie with Statistics' This time of year everybody is looking for a promotional edge with stallions (yearling sales and all) - so using the freshman stats, which impresses you more?

Rank by Earnings Rank by Avg Earnings Index
Big Brown (35k stud fee) 8 ($269k) 2 (2.81)
Salute the Sarge (2.5k) 6 ($279k) 23 (0.85)

Keeping in mind that BB got great mares, SS mediocre mares. ... SS has had almost half his 2yos hit the track. BBs have higher earnings per starter if you're lucky enough to get one to the track so far.

jm

kimberley mine · Postby **kimberley mine** » Sun Sep 16, 2012 6:59 am

The people who own Kitalpha are the past masters of that art of misleading advertising.

When you're dealing with misleading numbers, don't forget that Salute the Sarge is in a statebred program, meaning his runners can rack up earnings in statebred races before going into open company. In general Big Brown's runners won't do that.

Fireslam · Postby **Fireslam** » Sun Sep 16, 2012 1:34 pm

Salute the Sarge was an early maturing 2 year old who took advantage of that with a good 2 year old year. By the time he was three, his contemporaries caught up with him and passed him by, he couldnt compete with them. No one will expect his foals to do any different.

Big Brown was as good a racehorse as we've seen in a while. Where his foals might be good at 2, they should develop well at three and race on.

Its apples and oranges.

dublino · Postby **dublino** » Mon Sep 17, 2012 9:32 am

Fireslam wrote:Big Brown was as good a racehorse as we've seen in a while.

Like Curlin good needle horses alledgedly........

Both horses form tailed off when steroids were banned.

On the flip side Curlins first winner in Russia was good................

Fireslam · Postby **Fireslam** » Mon Sep 17, 2012 11:13 am

How did Big Brown tail off without steroids? He won his first start by about 12 lengths under a different trainer than Dutrow. After the Belmont fiasco, he won the Gr. 1 Haskell, and then won the Monmouth Hd. over older horses.

Curlin also won his first start by double digits, trained by Helen Pitts. Im not sure when you think his form tailed off, his worst race was his last, the only time he was off the board, when 4th in the Breeders Cup. Immediately before that race, he won 7 of his previous races, with a good second on the grass going 1 3/8. Both horses were pretty spectacular race horses, no matter who trained them.

da hossman · Postby **da hossman** » Tue Sep 18, 2012 4:45 pm

I absolutely believe the old adage "figures don't lie, but liars sure can figure!"

Of course the stud farm's job is to promote what they have to sell, and potential buyers should keep that in mind at all times.

Regarding Salue The Sarge, I believe he started in KY so the majority of his first crop (or two) are not benefitting from a state-bred/state-restricted program. Salute The Sarge is in LA now, but I remember him starting in KY - Please correct me if I am wrong.

Rumor is that Coolmore is thinking about Big Brown...a bit early in my opinion.

BargainBlueblood · Postby **BargainBlueblood** » Thu Sep 20, 2012 9:16 am

Correct: Salute the Sarge did stand his first season at Walmac, before his move to Red River Farm in Louisiana.

stlouiskid · Postby **stlouiskid** » Sun Sep 23, 2012 5:46 pm

The horse that is not looking good is Midnight Lute. You would have thought he would be getting early speed runners, but he had a huge crop and not many are even getting to the track. Spring At Last looking great for the money. Big Brown will be ok, his crop will get better as they mature.

kimberley mine · Postby **kimberley mine** » Mon Sep 24, 2012 4:37 am

stlouiskid wrote:The horse that is not looking good is Midnight Lute. You would have thought he would be getting early speed runners, but he had a huge crop and not many are even getting to the track. Spring At Last looking great for the money. Big Brown will be ok, his crop will get better as they mature.

I dunno. I figured Midnight Lute foals would turn it on at three, simply because he's HUGE and probably his foals are busy growing.

Concur re: Spring at Last.

BargainBlueblood · Postby **BargainBlueblood** » Mon Sep 24, 2012 8:30 am

Agreed, Midnight Lute is huge and was not early maturing. The fact that he is #17 on the freshman sire list with two stakes-placed runners is actually quite encouraging.

stlouiskid · Postby **stlouiskid** » Wed Sep 26, 2012 11:08 am

Are Midnight Lute foals generally big? I just assumed he would pass along his blazing speed, which usually translates to fast two year olds.

Fireslam · Postby **Fireslam** » Wed Sep 26, 2012 4:20 pm

He didnt have blazing speed, he was a closing sprinter. Ive found those types of runners to not make the best of sires.

Tappiano · Postby **Tappiano** » Wed Sep 26, 2012 4:45 pm

The only one I've seen is a good size, robust and does not look like a sprinter.

Joltman · Postby **Joltman** » Thu Sep 27, 2012 5:34 am

THe late closing sprinters may be bred to sprinter mares when milers may be better suited.

jm

zinn21 · Postby **zinn21** » Thu Sep 27, 2012 10:32 am

I watched several Midnight Lute's go through the Keeneland sales ring. They looked ok but didn't sell all that well..