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 Post subject: Hill N Dale prices 2015
PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2014 11:49 am 
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Eclipse Champion

Joined: Thu Jan 27, 2005 2:34 pm
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http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/ ... s-released

I noticed that New Years Day has gone down $5000 after one season. Was there not a lot of interest in him, or is this normal to drop after one season at stud?

The drop on both Roman Ruler and Stormy Atlantic is bizarre, they both have had a good year.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2014 11:52 am 
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Eclipse Champion

Joined: Thu Jan 27, 2005 2:34 pm
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Similarly, here are Claiborne's 2015 fees

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/ ... -unchanged

First Samurai at $15,000 again, and Trappe Shot at $10,000. Both good prices on those two considering First Samurai is producing some quality stakes horses and Trappe Shot did so well at the sales.


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2014 5:03 am 
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2yo Maiden

Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2013 10:50 am
Posts: 88
Location: East Coast
A lot of farms will drop fees in the second or third year as stallions approach the "bubble year". That being said, I think there is a very rough breeding season on the horizon and it may be worse than I was thinking if Hill 'n Dale is willing to drop fees. Given the drop off in the last books at the KeeSep sale, the drop in median and rise in buy back at the FTMA sale, and the staggering 48.3% buy back at the FT breeding stock sale in Saratoga I am very concerned that sales momentum is going the wrong direction.

I'm not sure how other breeders are feeling but I know I am planning to pull way back on stud fees this year. I have a mare and weanling going through KeeNov and they are solid mid-market horses and I am very concerned that there is no mid-market for them.


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2014 9:48 am 
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Starters Handicap

Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 5:35 am
Posts: 680
CherryDavis wrote:
A lot of farms will drop fees in the second or third year as stallions approach the "bubble year". That being said, I think there is a very rough breeding season on the horizon and it may be worse than I was thinking if Hill 'n Dale is willing to drop fees. Given the drop off in the last books at the KeeSep sale, the drop in median and rise in buy back at the FTMA sale, and the staggering 48.3% buy back at the FT breeding stock sale in Saratoga I am very concerned that sales momentum is going the wrong direction.

I'm not sure how other breeders are feeling but I know I am planning to pull way back on stud fees this year. I have a mare and weanling going through KeeNov and they are solid mid-market horses and I am very concerned that there is no mid-market for them.


I feel your fear. I was at FTSAR earlier this week and picked up a couple of mares, but the action overall was very limp. It sucks, but the top of the market is very strong, however the rest of the market from the middle on down is very thin. The question that I am asking is - if I cut back on the stallion choice, am I devolving further into that morass?


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2014 11:14 am 
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Eclipse Champion

Joined: Sat Jun 23, 2007 6:57 am
Posts: 2388
Location: Kentucky
ct2346 wrote:
CherryDavis wrote:
A lot of farms will drop fees in the second or third year as stallions approach the "bubble year". That being said, I think there is a very rough breeding season on the horizon and it may be worse than I was thinking if Hill 'n Dale is willing to drop fees. Given the drop off in the last books at the KeeSep sale, the drop in median and rise in buy back at the FTMA sale, and the staggering 48.3% buy back at the FT breeding stock sale in Saratoga I am very concerned that sales momentum is going the wrong direction.

I'm not sure how other breeders are feeling but I know I am planning to pull way back on stud fees this year. I have a mare and weanling going through KeeNov and they are solid mid-market horses and I am very concerned that there is no mid-market for them.


I feel your fear. I was at FTSAR earlier this week and picked up a couple of mares, but the action overall was very limp. It sucks, but the top of the market is very strong, however the rest of the market from the middle on down is very thin. The question that I am asking is - if I cut back on the stallion choice, am I devolving further into that morass?


When the market drops, we tend to aim higher. That has worked for us in the past. That said, the two mares we have 2015 contracts for so far are both booked at lower money this year than we spent on them last year--which wasn't our intent, it just happened because of the availability of two stallions that we wanted. The market is telescoping and that bulls eye we're all trying to hit does seem to be getting smaller. On the other hand, with decent purses available and the foal crop shrinking, we now have more young stock in training than ever before. We figure we will grab opportunity anywhere we can find it.


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2014 4:06 pm 
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Allowance Winner

Joined: Sat Mar 31, 2007 9:29 pm
Posts: 419
Location: Texas
I think this current breeding market is strange, and possibly reflecting the country's deep unease with so many geopolitical and economic challenges. The super rich in some respects are doing great and they'll pay and pay strongly for high-end horses, but like posters are observing, it seems the middle market is weak and breeders who are getting hurt over and over in that market are going to cease operations or at least cut back. Meanwhile it seems to me that the Kentucky stallion farms are probably seeing that there will be a shortage of quality mares for all but their top end, so I'm sure they are worried and bracing themselves. For another thing, the foreign buyers have been a strong player at Keeneland November in recent years, so if they show up again they will remove yet another percentage of these mares from Kentucky permanently.

I also own a company that has both very large and very small business end users, and both types but especially my small business customers are tightening their belts everywhere, so it seems to me the middle class is much less capable of owning racehorses than in years prior, or at least they are more cautious about it.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 12, 2014 8:15 am 
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2yo Maiden

Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2013 10:50 am
Posts: 88
Location: East Coast
I should clarify that by saying I was pulling back on stud fees I didn't mean going down market, just reducing number of foals. That being said I will be continuing to support Spendthrift because if the market tanks again, having those breeding rights may be the only way to survive. I do not think the bottom will completely fall out like previously happened, but if it does, the breeders incentives are still sitting here in PA and available for the horses that are running for them. If I have the breeding right and the horse is descent, even if I have to hand place my foals it gives me one way to continue doing what I love without sinking $50,000 into a foal that I may not see a return on if it goes through the sales ring. Of course, every politician out there has their eyes on the racehorse fund so I could end up in a big pit of financial suck no matter what I do.


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