APEX and Stud Fee

Discussion and analysis of thoroughbred stallions.

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jeff9061
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APEX and Stud Fee

Postby jeff9061 » Fri Feb 20, 2015 4:48 pm

I put a fair amount of weight in the APEX index. I might race anything I breed, so if I choose a proven stallion I like something that has a decent shot of earning his/her way back, compared to averages anyway. Looking at the latest table (1-21-15), I see only three stallions that have earned a 1.50 or higher ABC APEX and that stand in KY for $12,500 or less.

I threw out all stallions standing in regional markets, whose numbers are potentially inflated by inflated purses against restricted company. And stallions based on another continent, because they're unavailable to me.

First Defence. 1.61 ABC APEX, which really surprised me because I thought he's only brought us one great horse. That might be true, actually, but of his 171 runners for this table he has 22 ABC's -- 16 of which are C's, so I guess he's getting some runners who can earn their way if not get a lot of attention.

Istan. 1.61 ABC APEX, which I sort of expected. He's put together some good horses with the smallish crops he's sired.

Run Away And Hide. 1.50 ABC APEX. Again, sort of expected him to be here, he's done well with the both the smallish crops and type of mares he's received.

Successful Appeal. 2.01 ABC APEX. He's by far the class of the group, getting all kinds of runners, even at the highest level, compared to the breed average. And his number is earned on 927 runners, so it's not a fluke. But he's a 1996 stallion now too, and I'm always worried about when fertility starts to wane -- barren years are killers.

If you relax the stud fee to $15K, you only draw in one more horse, First Samurai, at 1.59. His 533 say this isn't a fluke either, and he gets the highest proportion of A Runners, with 24 of his runners in this table A's and an A APEX of 2.25.

It's interesting because I've bred to two of these five, and came very close to breeding to a third on this list this year. Curious what others make of these, or they have another way to look at or select the pool of stallions to start their selection criteria from? If I've got a pool of 5 or 8 or 10 I like, I can start to look at pedigree and physical issues. Problem is, I guess, my pedigree and physicals don't always match up with what's above. Especially if I want the option, or if it's Option #1, to sell commercially. Outside of First Samurai, what's above isn't terribly commercial at the middle-high levels of the market.

Mac
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Re: APEX and Stud Fee

Postby Mac » Sat Feb 21, 2015 11:05 pm

Hi Jeff,

I enjoyed your post and I find the APEX information really interesting also. Any kind of real information that supports why certain sires are more likely to pass brilliance or at least some talent to progeny is valuable when a breeder commits to this sometimes insanely difficult undertaking, to breed a class racehorse.

It's confusing. As you said, matching up the physical characteristics is important. Then realizing how much commercial value you may sacrifice should you breed to an under-the-radar sire who has not yet gotten on the screen of buyers should you try to sell that yearling.

Plus if you are breeding for two turns, that eliminates some very good sires or at least puts a whole lot on the mare if choosing to go with a sire that doesn't get that many distance runners.

Besides the stallions you mentioned, it seems there are non-Kentucky sires like Jump Start, Freud, and Old Forester who are getting stakes winners and those who can pay their owners back, going by APEX. They are really impressive.

Daaher, along with a couple of Florida stallions like Awesome Of Course and Hear No Evil, wow they are good. Don't have enough progeny to get Apex rated, but its hard to imagine once you really dig into them, that if you gave them 25 mares who had been mated to say Bernardini, that these stallions wouldn't have more stakes winners with those same mares than does Bernardini. I'm not slamming Bernardini, he's gotten some class racehorses. What I am saying is that these stallions get really impressive results with very ordinary mares. It's amazing.

Another way to go is the stallions standing for $12k to $25k and are getting great APEX ratings, it seems that you can always catch a deal with at least one of them depending on time of season, whether they've been quiet lately, or if shareholders suddenly weaken and decide to let some discounts through. Especially, as you are saying, if they are not entirely fashionable with the commercial market. City Zip was like that for years. It seemed that the "commercial" market just kept trying to find reasons to not believe the runners he was getting from very basic mares, or else they were doubting the conformation. I never quite understood it, but it seems like the denial went on for years before breeders and buyers finally decided he was for real.

I can really agree with you in closing, if we end up racing anything we are breeding, some of these stallions are just sensational at producing progeny who can pay themselves off and their stud fees are pretty affordable, considering. Successful Appeal is definitely a great example of that. His yearlings will show up in gr. 1s, gr. 2s, gr. 3s, or stakes and allowance races at every main track. APEX is definitely helpful for reinforcing how really well he is actually doing, and others like him.

Mac
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Posts: 419
Joined: Sat Mar 31, 2007 9:29 pm
Location: Texas

Re: APEX and Stud Fee

Postby Mac » Sat Feb 21, 2015 11:06 pm

Hi Jeff,

I enjoyed your post and I find the APEX information really interesting also. Any kind of real information that supports why certain sires are more likely to pass brilliance or at least some talent to progeny is valuable when a breeder commits to this sometimes insanely difficult undertaking, to breed a class racehorse.

It's confusing. As you said, matching up the physical characteristics is important. Then realizing how much commercial value you may sacrifice should you breed to an under-the-radar sire who has not yet gotten on the screen of buyers should you try to sell that yearling.

Plus if you are breeding for two turns, that eliminates some very good sires or at least puts a whole lot on the mare if choosing to go with a sire that doesn't get that many distance runners.

Besides the stallions you mentioned, it seems there are non-Kentucky sires like Jump Start, Freud, and Old Forester who are getting stakes winners and those who can pay their owners back, going by APEX. They are really impressive.

Daaher, along with a couple of Florida stallions like Awesome Of Course and Hear No Evil, wow they are good. Don't have enough progeny to get Apex rated, but its hard to imagine once you really dig into them, that if you gave them 25 mares who had been mated to say Bernardini, that these stallions wouldn't have more stakes winners with those same mares than does Bernardini. I'm not slamming Bernardini, he's gotten some class racehorses. What I am saying is that these stallions get really impressive results with very ordinary mares. It's amazing.

Another way to go is the stallions standing for $12k to $25k and are getting great APEX ratings, it seems that you can always catch a deal with at least one of them depending on time of season, whether they've been quiet lately, or if shareholders suddenly weaken and decide to let some discounts through. Especially, as you are saying, if they are not entirely fashionable with the commercial market. City Zip was like that for years. It seemed that the "commercial" market just kept trying to find reasons to not believe the runners he was getting from very basic mares, or else they were doubting the conformation. I never quite understood it, but it seems like the denial went on for years before breeders and buyers finally decided he was for real.

I can really agree with you in closing, if we end up racing anything we are breeding, some of these stallions are just sensational at producing progeny who can pay themselves off and their stud fees are pretty affordable, considering. Successful Appeal is definitely a great example of that. His yearlings will show up in gr. 1s, gr. 2s, gr. 3s, or stakes and allowance races at every main track. APEX is definitely helpful for reinforcing how really well he is actually doing, and others like him.

Mac
Allowance Winner
Posts: 419
Joined: Sat Mar 31, 2007 9:29 pm
Location: Texas

Re: APEX and Stud Fee

Postby Mac » Sat Feb 21, 2015 11:06 pm

Hi Jeff,

I enjoyed your post and I find the APEX information really interesting also. Any kind of real information that supports why certain sires are more likely to pass brilliance or at least some talent to progeny is valuable when a breeder commits to this sometimes insanely difficult undertaking, to breed a class racehorse.

It's confusing. As you said, matching up the physical characteristics is important. Then realizing how much commercial value you may sacrifice should you breed to an under-the-radar sire who has not yet gotten on the screen of buyers should you try to sell that yearling.

Plus if you are breeding for two turns, that eliminates some very good sires or at least puts a whole lot on the mare if choosing to go with a sire that doesn't get that many distance runners.

Besides the stallions you mentioned, it seems there are non-Kentucky sires like Jump Start, Freud, and Old Forester who are getting stakes winners and those who can pay their owners back, going by APEX. They are really impressive.

Daaher, along with a couple of Florida stallions like Awesome Of Course and Hear No Evil, wow they are good. Don't have enough progeny to get Apex rated, but its hard to imagine once you really dig into them, that if you gave them 25 mares who had been mated to say Bernardini, that these stallions wouldn't have more stakes winners with those same mares than does Bernardini. I'm not slamming Bernardini, he's gotten some class racehorses. What I am saying is that these stallions get really impressive results with very ordinary mares. It's amazing.

Another way to go is the stallions standing for $12k to $25k and are getting great APEX ratings, it seems that you can always catch a deal with at least one of them depending on time of season, whether they've been quiet lately, or if shareholders suddenly weaken and decide to let some discounts through. Especially, as you are saying, if they are not entirely fashionable with the commercial market. City Zip was like that for years. It seemed that the "commercial" market just kept trying to find reasons to not believe the runners he was getting from very basic mares, or else they were doubting the conformation. I never quite understood it, but it seems like the denial went on for years before breeders and buyers finally decided he was for real.

I can really agree with you in closing, if we end up racing anything we are breeding, some of these stallions are just sensational at producing progeny who can pay themselves off and their stud fees are pretty affordable, considering. Successful Appeal is definitely a great example of that. His yearlings will show up in gr. 1s, gr. 2s, gr. 3s, or stakes and allowance races at every main track. APEX is definitely helpful for reinforcing how really well he is actually doing, and others like him.

Mac
Allowance Winner
Posts: 419
Joined: Sat Mar 31, 2007 9:29 pm
Location: Texas

Re: APEX and Stud Fee

Postby Mac » Sat Feb 21, 2015 11:07 pm

Hi Jeff,

I enjoyed your post and I find the APEX information really interesting also. Any kind of real information that supports why certain sires are more likely to pass brilliance or at least some talent to progeny is valuable when a breeder commits to this sometimes insanely difficult undertaking, to breed a class racehorse.

It's confusing. As you said, matching up the physical characteristics is important. Then realizing how much commercial value you may sacrifice should you breed to an under-the-radar sire who has not yet gotten on the screen of buyers should you try to sell that yearling.

Plus if you are breeding for two turns, that eliminates some very good sires or at least puts a whole lot on the mare if choosing to go with a sire that doesn't get that many distance runners.

Besides the stallions you mentioned, it seems there are non-Kentucky sires like Jump Start, Freud, and Old Forester who are getting stakes winners and those who can pay their owners back, going by APEX. They are really impressive.

Daaher, along with a couple of Florida stallions like Awesome Of Course and Hear No Evil, wow they are good. Don't have enough progeny to get Apex rated, but its hard to imagine once you really dig into them, that if you gave them 25 mares who had been mated to say Bernardini, that these stallions wouldn't have more stakes winners with those same mares than does Bernardini. I'm not slamming Bernardini, he's gotten some class racehorses. What I am saying is that these stallions get really impressive results with very ordinary mares. It's amazing.

Another way to go is the stallions standing for $12k to $25k and are getting great APEX ratings, it seems that you can always catch a deal with at least one of them depending on time of season, whether they've been quiet lately, or if shareholders suddenly weaken and decide to let some discounts through. Especially, as you are saying, if they are not entirely fashionable with the commercial market. City Zip was like that for years. It seemed that the "commercial" market just kept trying to find reasons to not believe the runners he was getting from very basic mares, or else they were doubting the conformation. I never quite understood it, but it seems like the denial went on for years before breeders and buyers finally decided he was for real.

I can really agree with you in closing, if we end up racing anything we are breeding, some of these stallions are just sensational at producing progeny who can pay themselves off and their stud fees are pretty affordable, considering. Successful Appeal is definitely a great example of that. His yearlings will show up in gr. 1s, gr. 2s, gr. 3s, or stakes and allowance races at every main track. APEX is definitely helpful for reinforcing how really well he is actually doing, and others like him.

Mac
Allowance Winner
Posts: 419
Joined: Sat Mar 31, 2007 9:29 pm
Location: Texas

Re: APEX and Stud Fee

Postby Mac » Sat Feb 21, 2015 11:07 pm

Hi Jeff,

I enjoyed your post and I find the APEX information really interesting also. Any kind of real information that supports why certain sires are more likely to pass brilliance or at least some talent to progeny is valuable when a breeder commits to this sometimes insanely difficult undertaking, to breed a class racehorse.

It's confusing. As you said, matching up the physical characteristics is important. Then realizing how much commercial value you may sacrifice should you breed to an under-the-radar sire who has not yet gotten on the screen of buyers should you try to sell that yearling.

Plus if you are breeding for two turns, that eliminates some very good sires or at least puts a whole lot on the mare if choosing to go with a sire that doesn't get that many distance runners.

Besides the stallions you mentioned, it seems there are non-Kentucky sires like Jump Start, Freud, and Old Forester who are getting stakes winners and those who can pay their owners back, going by APEX. They are really impressive.

Daaher, along with a couple of Florida stallions like Awesome Of Course and Hear No Evil, wow they are good. Don't have enough progeny to get Apex rated, but its hard to imagine once you really dig into them, that if you gave them 25 mares who had been mated to say Bernardini, that these stallions wouldn't have more stakes winners with those same mares than does Bernardini. I'm not slamming Bernardini, he's gotten some class racehorses. What I am saying is that these stallions get really impressive results with very ordinary mares. It's amazing.

Another way to go is the stallions standing for $12k to $25k and are getting great APEX ratings, it seems that you can always catch a deal with at least one of them depending on time of season, whether they've been quiet lately, or if shareholders suddenly weaken and decide to let some discounts through. Especially, as you are saying, if they are not entirely fashionable with the commercial market. City Zip was like that for years. It seemed that the "commercial" market just kept trying to find reasons to not believe the runners he was getting from very basic mares, or else they were doubting the conformation. I never quite understood it, but it seems like the denial went on for years before breeders and buyers finally decided he was for real.

I can really agree with you in closing, if we end up racing anything we are breeding, some of these stallions are just sensational at producing progeny who can pay themselves off and their stud fees are pretty affordable, considering. Successful Appeal is definitely a great example of that. His yearlings will show up in gr. 1s, gr. 2s, gr. 3s, or stakes and allowance races at every main track. APEX is definitely helpful for reinforcing how really well he is actually doing, and others like him.

Mac
Allowance Winner
Posts: 419
Joined: Sat Mar 31, 2007 9:29 pm
Location: Texas

Re: APEX and Stud Fee

Postby Mac » Sat Feb 21, 2015 11:12 pm

well Jeff, I replied to you four times it seems:) I kept getting an error message when I submitted the replies. Sorry for the redundancy and hopefully the administrators can determine why the error message is occurring.

Mac
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Posts: 419
Joined: Sat Mar 31, 2007 9:29 pm
Location: Texas

Re: APEX and Stud Fee

Postby Mac » Sat Feb 21, 2015 11:12 pm

well Jeff, I replied to you four times it seems:) I kept getting an error message when I submitted the replies. Sorry for the redundancy and hopefully the administrators can determine why the error message is occurring.

kimberley mine
Breeder's Cup Contender
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Re: APEX and Stud Fee

Postby kimberley mine » Tue Feb 24, 2015 12:19 pm

How about Kendargent, standing in France?

DonaldT
Suckling
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Re: APEX and Stud Fee

Postby DonaldT » Tue Feb 24, 2015 1:54 pm

Hey Jeff, so I have to preface my post by saying: I don't own any horses yet so these are just my musings, but, here it goes:

So, I spend a lot of time researching stallions as potential mates (for the broodmare band that I don't yet possess) and I tend to put a lot of weight into sales averages since I intend to breed commercially. Of course, if you breed to race this won't be nearly as important (if it's important at all) but I think the genuinely consistent sales stallions are such because they consistently get genuinely good runners. I usually want to see a sales average of about 2.5x the stud fee before I consider the stallion. I also look for an AEI higher than the CI because I assume the mares I will be able to purchase are not going to be the best stock...so I want a stallion that improves my mares.

Successful Appeal comes to mind, who at 10k seems like, perennially, such a good deal. His 2014 sales average is 35k which more than meets my 2.5x stud fee criteria. Plus his AEI is 1.78 versus CI of 1.58.

I really like Unusual Heat, who at 20k is above the mark you mentioned, but his 2014 sales average is 56k and his AEI is a whopping 2.07 versus a CI of 1.27.

Northern Afleet is a given: 46k sales average off at $7,500 stud fee and his AEI is 1.51 versus CI of 1.33

Love the way Majestic Warrior is coming along, and at $17,500 I think he's a bargain: sales average of 80k (though the median is 35k which falls below my 2.5x stud fee threshold) and an AEI of 1.51 versus CI of 1.35

If I owned a mare, I'd be bustin' down doors to get her to Flatter: currently at a 20k stud fee that (I think) will keep going up to top out in the low six figures. He's doing everything right: sales average of 100k (median is 51k which still satisfies my 2.5x stud fee requirement) plus an AEI of 1.62 to CI of 1.22. Plus, he's got a nice Derby prospect in Upstart.

Langfuhr, $7,500 stud fee and a sales average 30k and 1.46 AEI to 1.40 CI, not huge but it is what it is
Jump Start, 10k stud fee and a sales average 32k and 1.59 AEI to 1.35 CI

So, even though you're breeding for a different reason, what I'm trying to say is: looking at all the stats and coming up with a metric that fits your particular goal is a good thing, at least I think anyway. My methodology above could be complete crap but it's a method of organizing the hundreds of prospects and narrow it down into a group that I feel like would maximize my chance at success. I think your method (APEX index keyed to a certain stud fee price point) is a great method to come up with a good set of options considering your breed to race objective. Just my thoughts.

Mac
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Re: APEX and Stud Fee

Postby Mac » Tue Feb 24, 2015 6:07 pm

Great post Donaldt.

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Joltman
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Re: APEX and Stud Fee

Postby Joltman » Mon Mar 02, 2015 8:04 pm

You're in that interesting zone where you might find a younger stallion like Istan who is doing well but not really noticed, and may never be. Still there's upside potential, by the time your horse goes to a sale. Northern Afleet, Langfuhr, Successful Appeal are all terrific - but they're known quantities which is good and bad. No grand slam home runs in the sales arena. Some of these are very available affordable on private deals and NG.
Run the race - the one that's really worth winning.