Hello guys
As the 2005 breeding season approaches...debating the question...Which young stallions have genuine MARKET APPEAL?" may give us an opportunity to discuss some horses that might be worthy of such a potentially valuable accolade...one which your breeding selections and sales offerings may actually benefit from.
Everyone seems to have stallions that they like for one reason or another...but remember...the question specifically relates to "market appeal."
And for the sake of this discussion, how about using the following stud fee categories for reference...
category #1 ... $0 to $10,000
category #2 ... $10,001 to $25,000
category #3 ... $25,001 to $#50,000
category #4 ... $50,001 to $100,000
category #5 ... over $100,000
The stallions that usually intrigue me most are those that fit (or started off) in categories #1 and #2 (many of which do not have runners yet)...including those stallions just retiring or stallions with first crop runners in 2005...
...but there are also a couple of stallions with just a few crops racing that seem to be have that elusive but valuable "market appeal" also.
To start it off...I submit the following...
Full Mandate ($5,000 live...in Florida) who entered stud in 2004 and covered 151 mares may have significant "market appeal" (particularly in Florida)...his well documented looks and pedigree are sure to attract attention (certainly his offspring will benefit)...and he was a stakes winner to boot. First foals arrive in 2005. A lot of value for a category #1 stallion...with classic appeal.
I also believe that Thunderello (recently moved to New York and also a category #1 stallion) may have some of the "market appeal" magic...he could fly. I saw a couple of knock-outs by him.
A young upstart who enters the stallion ranks (in Ky) for 2005 is Chapel Royal (a son of Montbrook, as is Thunderello). He was a brilliant (and early) 2 year-old...and pinhookers (particularly) should be attracted to his offspring. His $10,000 stud fee places him at the top limit of category #1...but with Ashford/Coolmore behind him...you can rest assured we will be Chapel Royaled to death. He should have plenty of "market appeal."
Yes It's True at $25,000 (for 2005) gets an abundance of very attractive individuals...many of his foals seem to sell (quite consistently) in the $50,000 and up category (and that's based on his previous $10k stud fee). The market has been attracted to his offspring in a strong way (and little of that has been related to pedigree)...they are good looking...and Yes It's True's got a couple of very nice runners in his first crop including a G1 winner. His "market appeal" is almost palpable.
Omega Code (by Elusive Quality out of a Deputy Minister mare) should have HUGE "market appeal." He had 1:07 3/5 speed...as a 2 year-old no less...and is a cinch to attract a "ton" of attention. He may be a category #1 standout at $7,500.
How about Johannesburg in category #3 at $30,000 live?
And at the upper limit of category #4...Elusive Quality seems to be a can't-stop-me kinda stallion...it looks like he's on the fast track to the rarest air...category #5. Elusive Quality is the real deal...and he's got "market appeal" to spare...
...and don't forget...he started as a category #1 stallion.
What are your thoughts?
Respectfully
Which young stallions have genuine MARKET APPEAL ?
Moderators: Roguelet, WaveMaster, madelyn
I think our stallion has a good chance of having market appeal in your first category. Legal Jousting. He's graded stakes placed, is by chef-de-race Indian Ridge (bringing more of the Herod sireline to North America), out of a Sadler's Wells mare that has produced two other stakes winners in Irresistible Jewel and Diamond Trim. His second dam is the good racemare Aptostar. He was primarily a mile horse, competing against the likes of Giant's Causeway and Bachir.
His first season at stud will be 2005, and he will be standing for an introductory fee of $1500 Canadian (yes that's right). He looks the part of a stallion, and he's got a nice pedigree to boot...
His first season at stud will be 2005, and he will be standing for an introductory fee of $1500 Canadian (yes that's right). He looks the part of a stallion, and he's got a nice pedigree to boot...
Legal Jousting (Indian Ridge X In Anticipation - Sadler's Wells) standing at Kingsgate Stud
Hi folks,
By now I trust that everyone knows that I evaluate stallions by intended use that can be defined (for simplicity's sake) as breeding to sell or race.
Saarland ($10,000 KY) Hill N' Dale, is a stickout first year sire for his commercial potential. Note the 7 running pages advertising him in the most recent Thoroughbredtimes. His sireline (Unbridled) is high visibility and his female family completely elite. He was a neck from defeating sprint champion Aldebaran in the G1 Metropolitan Mile and had he done so, his fee would be at least $15,000. Frankly, I'll take the $5,000 because I don't think it will affect him much commercially. His value is greater east of the Mississippi.
Running Stag, ($7,500 FL) Adena Aprings South, looks to be a good alternative to Adena's Alphabet Soup in price and by pedigree (both sons of Cozzene). This is a breed to race stallion with only a modest possibility of commercial upside. Running Stag's averaging over $55,000 per winner already and at a similar point in their stud careers he's well ahead of Alphabet Soup.
Scrimshaw, ($6,500 KY) Millennium Farm, is a mixed profile, perhaps better as a breed to race stallion in his first year with more commercial appeal in the following 2-3 years (when his foals have hit the track). He was a very fast 2yo, winning in 1:08.1 and 1:03.4. At 3 he was uneven but I feel that he was poorly used at distances that were forced for him. He's supposed to be a real looker and if he gets his own 2yo speed, you may do well with racing his first crop and selling subsequent ones.
(Scrimshaw DID NOT defeat Ghostzapper at 2yo as I originally posted. My apologies, I have him confused with another horse that I can't remember at this time).
Some ideas about stallions for different uses.
Regards,
Pete
By now I trust that everyone knows that I evaluate stallions by intended use that can be defined (for simplicity's sake) as breeding to sell or race.
Saarland ($10,000 KY) Hill N' Dale, is a stickout first year sire for his commercial potential. Note the 7 running pages advertising him in the most recent Thoroughbredtimes. His sireline (Unbridled) is high visibility and his female family completely elite. He was a neck from defeating sprint champion Aldebaran in the G1 Metropolitan Mile and had he done so, his fee would be at least $15,000. Frankly, I'll take the $5,000 because I don't think it will affect him much commercially. His value is greater east of the Mississippi.
Running Stag, ($7,500 FL) Adena Aprings South, looks to be a good alternative to Adena's Alphabet Soup in price and by pedigree (both sons of Cozzene). This is a breed to race stallion with only a modest possibility of commercial upside. Running Stag's averaging over $55,000 per winner already and at a similar point in their stud careers he's well ahead of Alphabet Soup.
Scrimshaw, ($6,500 KY) Millennium Farm, is a mixed profile, perhaps better as a breed to race stallion in his first year with more commercial appeal in the following 2-3 years (when his foals have hit the track). He was a very fast 2yo, winning in 1:08.1 and 1:03.4. At 3 he was uneven but I feel that he was poorly used at distances that were forced for him. He's supposed to be a real looker and if he gets his own 2yo speed, you may do well with racing his first crop and selling subsequent ones.
(Scrimshaw DID NOT defeat Ghostzapper at 2yo as I originally posted. My apologies, I have him confused with another horse that I can't remember at this time).
Some ideas about stallions for different uses.
Regards,
Pete
Last edited by Pete on Sat Oct 30, 2004 8:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I am going to be pretty broad in here & only mention stallions who I really like & can be & are marketed well who have no colts of racing age yet. El Corredor for 25k or 30k I think he is. Forest Camp as he may go up again this year from 15k. Yankee Gentlemanfor 10k & Great Notion for $3,500. I am not very keen at all on Scrimshaw, he never showed me the brilliance on the track or at least hint of that a projected stallion must for myself to like. He ran for a $62,500 tag this year as well I do believe or maybe a higher optional claimer but he was in for a tag that day as I saw it in the form & thought to myself that might not be the worst idea to claim him for a stallion prospect but at $6,500 he is like 90% of stallions today esp new ones in being overpriced.
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Shawklit Won
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Yankee Victor, etc.
I am not an expert on breeding, but I would like to see one of Saint Ballado's sons, like Yankee Victor, make it big as a stallion. Saint Ballado passed on much too soon, and I hope that his sire line lives on through at least one of his sons.
BTW, it was one of Saint Ballado's daughters that won the BC Distaff today. Ashado that is.
BTW, it was one of Saint Ballado's daughters that won the BC Distaff today. Ashado that is.
Shawklit Won.
Hi Tom Fool,
I guess my post appears to indicate that these stallions are ones that I'd breed to when only Saarlanc has the commercial appeal that I need since I breed to sell. I used Running Stag and Scrimshaw as examples of using stallions by circumstance.
Classic placed son of champion and sire of sires, Gulch, won the Lexington Stakes (G2), third in the Preakness Stakes (G1) and Santa Catalina Stakes (G2). He was undefeated at two, winning both of his starts in the sensational times of 1:08.1 (6f) and 1:03.4 (5-1/2f). Lifetime earnings in excess of $460,000.
Sounds enticing and as a Mr. Prospector line stallion who cold run a whole in the wind at 2, perhaps a good deal at $6,500.
What is most interesting about Scrimshaw is in his PPs but not that he ran in an Allowance Optional Claimer, it's how poorly he was managed and pressed to run in races beyond his best distances. The fact that he won the Lexington routing and was a distant third in the Preakness (but less than a length off 2nd) indicates a colt of some quality. I know that you don't like Tapit, but Scrimshaw's first six races are eerily similar to Tapit's. Part of selecting stallions is looking past the obvious and finding a horse that represents more value than appears on the surface.
You evaluate the race quality of a stallion prospect by the best company that they were competitive in, not the worst. The AOC that you mentioned is meaningless at the stage of Scrimshaw's career when he was in it. Charismatic was in a similar race before his Derby as was A.P. Valentine.
Scrimshaw’s credentials were made in his first 6 races, not his last 7. By sales price and report he’s a beautiful animal, a sensationally fast 2yo, graded stakes winner at 3 and classic placed. If I felt (and I do) that he was improperly used and might have been more successful running in races like the King’s Bishop, Amsterdam or Bayshore stakes, he probably would have sported a record that would have command a higher fee and impressed you more. If I never breed to him I’ll follow him closely because I feel that there’s the possibility that he may be better than he seems.
Why do you consider Forest Camp’s fee at $15,000 (and possibly rising) as good value when his credentials are similar to Scrimshaw?
All stallion owners will get the highest price that they believe the market will bear when pricing their stallion – I supposed you and I would too. Value is in the eye of the beholder.
Regards,
Pete
I guess my post appears to indicate that these stallions are ones that I'd breed to when only Saarlanc has the commercial appeal that I need since I breed to sell. I used Running Stag and Scrimshaw as examples of using stallions by circumstance.
Classic placed son of champion and sire of sires, Gulch, won the Lexington Stakes (G2), third in the Preakness Stakes (G1) and Santa Catalina Stakes (G2). He was undefeated at two, winning both of his starts in the sensational times of 1:08.1 (6f) and 1:03.4 (5-1/2f). Lifetime earnings in excess of $460,000.
Sounds enticing and as a Mr. Prospector line stallion who cold run a whole in the wind at 2, perhaps a good deal at $6,500.
What is most interesting about Scrimshaw is in his PPs but not that he ran in an Allowance Optional Claimer, it's how poorly he was managed and pressed to run in races beyond his best distances. The fact that he won the Lexington routing and was a distant third in the Preakness (but less than a length off 2nd) indicates a colt of some quality. I know that you don't like Tapit, but Scrimshaw's first six races are eerily similar to Tapit's. Part of selecting stallions is looking past the obvious and finding a horse that represents more value than appears on the surface.
You evaluate the race quality of a stallion prospect by the best company that they were competitive in, not the worst. The AOC that you mentioned is meaningless at the stage of Scrimshaw's career when he was in it. Charismatic was in a similar race before his Derby as was A.P. Valentine.
Scrimshaw’s credentials were made in his first 6 races, not his last 7. By sales price and report he’s a beautiful animal, a sensationally fast 2yo, graded stakes winner at 3 and classic placed. If I felt (and I do) that he was improperly used and might have been more successful running in races like the King’s Bishop, Amsterdam or Bayshore stakes, he probably would have sported a record that would have command a higher fee and impressed you more. If I never breed to him I’ll follow him closely because I feel that there’s the possibility that he may be better than he seems.
Why do you consider Forest Camp’s fee at $15,000 (and possibly rising) as good value when his credentials are similar to Scrimshaw?
All stallion owners will get the highest price that they believe the market will bear when pricing their stallion – I supposed you and I would too. Value is in the eye of the beholder.
Regards,
Pete
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Derby2004
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Young stallions
What about Heros Tribute and Domestic Dispute?
My top pick for commercial breeders is Speightstown, but after yesterday's win, I do not expect to see him stand for $10,000. He will probably stand for $15,000 - 25,000 now. Even so, he should still provide value. He is absolutely gorgeous, dead correct despite being out of a Storm Cat daughter, and very fast. He's a Gone West son, and should be very well received by yearling buyers after the early successes of Elusive Quality and Grand Slam.
I also think Jump Start should be hot. He's big, very good looking AP Indy son, and AP Indy has already got a a promising sire in Malibu Moon. He was a top two year old prior to his injury in the Breeder's Cup.
Malibu Moon is another AP Indy son that should continue to appeal. He has a top two year old in Declan's Moon. He did not get the best mares in his first few books, and still has two graded stakes winners in California. He gets good looking foals, and now with better mares, he should be on the upswing. Has his 2005 fee been announced yet?
I also like Flatter in Kentucky. At $5,000, it's hard to find better value. He is out of a Mr. Prospector mare as is Malibu Moon, and comes from a stallion family. Claiborne is pretty good at selecting mares, and judging by the Keeneland catalog, he has been bred to some good ones.
Florida has a good one in Peace Rules. Peace Rules had speed and could carry it, which I love to see in a stallion prospect. He showed up every time in his races, and seemed to be very sound. Florida breeders have good mares to support him, so I think he has a big chance.
In Maryland, Domestic Dispute should be commercial, but his last two races didn't do anybody any favors. He appears to be a very good looking horse who was a good two year old. He looks a lot like Songandaprayer, who has gotten very good looking babies that have been well received in the marketplace. Maybe some of our Florida friends can tell us how they looking as two year old prospects. Also, Domestic Dispute is out of a Magesterial mare, which looks to be one of the best crosses for Two Punch, so if that works, he is in the right area.
In New York, I like Wiseman's Ferry. He is another speed horse, and comes from the same family as Bernstein and, Sky Mesa, and some other good ones. He was certainly popular his first season.
I also think Jump Start should be hot. He's big, very good looking AP Indy son, and AP Indy has already got a a promising sire in Malibu Moon. He was a top two year old prior to his injury in the Breeder's Cup.
Malibu Moon is another AP Indy son that should continue to appeal. He has a top two year old in Declan's Moon. He did not get the best mares in his first few books, and still has two graded stakes winners in California. He gets good looking foals, and now with better mares, he should be on the upswing. Has his 2005 fee been announced yet?
I also like Flatter in Kentucky. At $5,000, it's hard to find better value. He is out of a Mr. Prospector mare as is Malibu Moon, and comes from a stallion family. Claiborne is pretty good at selecting mares, and judging by the Keeneland catalog, he has been bred to some good ones.
Florida has a good one in Peace Rules. Peace Rules had speed and could carry it, which I love to see in a stallion prospect. He showed up every time in his races, and seemed to be very sound. Florida breeders have good mares to support him, so I think he has a big chance.
In Maryland, Domestic Dispute should be commercial, but his last two races didn't do anybody any favors. He appears to be a very good looking horse who was a good two year old. He looks a lot like Songandaprayer, who has gotten very good looking babies that have been well received in the marketplace. Maybe some of our Florida friends can tell us how they looking as two year old prospects. Also, Domestic Dispute is out of a Magesterial mare, which looks to be one of the best crosses for Two Punch, so if that works, he is in the right area.
In New York, I like Wiseman's Ferry. He is another speed horse, and comes from the same family as Bernstein and, Sky Mesa, and some other good ones. He was certainly popular his first season.
If you can get to Speightstown for 30k next year I will be very suprised. I am thinking he will be 50k & with the way stud fees are going up he could even be more. I find it very hard to go with any some of AP Indy as the Seattle Slew sire line has always been very hard to figure. I firmly believe a large part of peoples awareness of sons of AP Indy is fabericated hype. The numbers just are not there. In a market that shuns stayers I cant get around the love for AP Indys when their most common trait tends to be a lack of speed. Old Trieste was the only one by him I ever really considered. In respone to Pete, all of your opinions are greatly validated & respected by myself. I just tend to differ from you on Scrimshaw but who is to say I am right. Your right, his optional claiming race means nothing but its just the kind of thing that leaves a bad taste in my mouth. He put up some good times but when comparing him to Forrest Camp my idea of a brilliant racehorse was displayed alot more so in him. Its hard to explain just my idea of what I like in a racehose. Scrimshaw just never did that for me. As a sireline we have seen on quiet a few occasions what Deputy Minister can do via Ghostzapper yesterday & in Left Bank a couple of years ago. I am not anti Scrimshaw at all I am just not all that crazy about him as a sire prospect. We all have different things we breed for & like thats why this game is what it is. If someone knew, what would be the fun in that? The billionaires would have all the good horses.
Hi TomFool
I believe Speightstown will be $30k to $40k...depending on how strongly they feel about his chances to get an eclipse coupled with the results of polling various breeders (which Taylor Made has done for months now since their involvement with Speightstown).
I was told $20k if he doesn't win the BC Sprint...and $40k if he wins. Although who knows...it might have been numbers thrown out simply to get a reaction.
Taylor Made and WinStar will price him where they believe they can attract an abundance of outside mares. If they believe they can get it done at $50k...they're capable of doing it...nobody has ever said Taylor Made is shy. But WinStar is involved also...so who knows.
Regardless...I believe Speightstown's connections will have to be careful in setting his fee...if for no other reason because Speightstown has a neck on him like a bull...that short thick look. Commercial breeders won't ignore it and it will have an affect on how he is perceived. To me that is a MAJOR concern.
Speightstown has been high on my list of prospects for 2005...but (I repeat) his neck is a real concern.
Respectfully
I believe Speightstown will be $30k to $40k...depending on how strongly they feel about his chances to get an eclipse coupled with the results of polling various breeders (which Taylor Made has done for months now since their involvement with Speightstown).
I was told $20k if he doesn't win the BC Sprint...and $40k if he wins. Although who knows...it might have been numbers thrown out simply to get a reaction.
Taylor Made and WinStar will price him where they believe they can attract an abundance of outside mares. If they believe they can get it done at $50k...they're capable of doing it...nobody has ever said Taylor Made is shy. But WinStar is involved also...so who knows.
Regardless...I believe Speightstown's connections will have to be careful in setting his fee...if for no other reason because Speightstown has a neck on him like a bull...that short thick look. Commercial breeders won't ignore it and it will have an affect on how he is perceived. To me that is a MAJOR concern.
Speightstown has been high on my list of prospects for 2005...but (I repeat) his neck is a real concern.
Respectfully
Snuck In has been very well precieved on the quanitity of mares but not sure about the overall quality. Montbrook has been pretty hot the last couple of years. His better sons will be in higher demand than most would think. I am not a supporter of Unbridles Song but I do like Songandaprayer a bit in this catergory. He is from the same family as Montbrook. His babies have sold well & managed better Songandaprayer might had really made a racehorse as he def had plenty of speed. Heros Tribute is kind of intresting to me as well. I doubt he will be very commerical but might get a racehorse by him. Sea Hero-Polish Navy are a huge concerns as they are pretty dead horses as far being very useful sires. Most talented horse by a failed sire, sounds like a poorer mans Congaree. Even with a pretty hefty negative sire line Heros Tribute could be a sleeper.