I have to like what City Zip is doing early this year. Many leading first crop sires drop off quickly in their second year. City Zip is on top again, with many of his current winners and late winners last year making two turns - a little unusual for a Carson City stallion.
Has anyone seen his coming two year olds? How do they look? He has had good sales so far at the two year old in training sales @ $260,000, $110,000, $160,000, etc.
Any thoughts on him as a long term sire?
City Zip On Top Again - Is he the real deal?
Moderators: Roguelet, WaveMaster, madelyn
Re: City Zip On Top Again - Is he the real deal?
tbrace wrote:I have to like what City Zip is doing early this year. Many leading first crop sires drop off quickly in their second year. City Zip is on top again, with many of his current winners and late winners last year making two turns - a little unusual for a Carson City stallion....
Any thoughts on him as a long term sire?
I know this doesn't answer your question, but your example/question poses another interesting subject for debate:
If it is such taboo to breed to "unproven" first season sires, doesn't it seem a bit of a contradiction if, indeed, the ones that do hit the ground running, do it in their freshman crop?
My second question would be: Are the successful 1st crop sires successful because of THEIR talent and abilities to pass on their genes, or are they successful mostly because they are fashionably bred, so they are the flavor of the season and get all the best mares?
How does one determine (until many crops have landed) which freshman sires will still be around producing good foals, for seasons to come?
Wouldn't it be a less risky proposition to take a shot at an uproven freshman sire, with all the goods, i.e., breeding, class, soundness, highly successful sireline and broodmare sireline, incredible female line,etc., rather than to bet on a stallion with a proven stakes producing record that maybe started 12 times, but is "commercially" hot because he gets a ton of good mares, but throws lots of bad foals that never make it to the races, or that can't compete at those top or even middle levels?
Thoughts???
And, if City Zip is the real deal, as TBRace asks, what makes him the "real deal"?
hi tbrace
You ask "...Is (City Zip) the real deal."
Right now...NO !!!
Who knows for sure what the future might bring...but based on what I've seen so far, I have serious doubts re: his ability to get much in the way of TOP quality two turn horses, including classic contenders.
That said...it would not surprise me to City Zip come up with some top class sprinters.
Respectfully
You ask "...Is (City Zip) the real deal."
Right now...NO !!!
Who knows for sure what the future might bring...but based on what I've seen so far, I have serious doubts re: his ability to get much in the way of TOP quality two turn horses, including classic contenders.
That said...it would not surprise me to City Zip come up with some top class sprinters.
Respectfully
You know FOS usually I agree with you, but I am going to disagree this time and City Zip is no friend of mine (the front end and conflicting reports on his foals confirmation kind of freak me out) 
From a first crop of 66 NY bred foals, he's gotten 70ish%, winners in the high 40%'s and around 3% stakes winners (yeah I was too lazy to pull the numbers back up). Obviously his stakes production is lacking at this point and his foals are mostly sprinters, but he's getting the sort of numbers which might indicate some potential there especially with his grossly overpriced half brother giving him a PR boost and the chance to get better mares in KY. For me he's on the bubble leaning towards being a useful sire, of course the bubble could burst
As for B.J., I'm with you as far as not wanting to use a proven sire who gets a low number of runners to the track. That screams of passing on unsoundness or significant confirmation flaws to me and while I'm against using unproven sires for unproven mares, I did do it this year because I found a stallion that checked all the boxes as you said and he was truly the best value for her. I sort of hold off full judgement on a stallion until he's hit his third crop. I think by then you can get a semi-decent idea of which way he's going to go. For me, I'm really picky that proven stallions show the ability to (a) get them to the track and (b) get them to the winners circle (I usually want to see a 70/50 split) because that's half the battle and I don't have the funds to piss away hoping for the "big" horse. I'd rather spend $3500 and luck into a Brass Hat than risk $300,000 hoping for a Sharmandal. The Brass Hat's more fun anyway
From a first crop of 66 NY bred foals, he's gotten 70ish%, winners in the high 40%'s and around 3% stakes winners (yeah I was too lazy to pull the numbers back up). Obviously his stakes production is lacking at this point and his foals are mostly sprinters, but he's getting the sort of numbers which might indicate some potential there especially with his grossly overpriced half brother giving him a PR boost and the chance to get better mares in KY. For me he's on the bubble leaning towards being a useful sire, of course the bubble could burst
As for B.J., I'm with you as far as not wanting to use a proven sire who gets a low number of runners to the track. That screams of passing on unsoundness or significant confirmation flaws to me and while I'm against using unproven sires for unproven mares, I did do it this year because I found a stallion that checked all the boxes as you said and he was truly the best value for her. I sort of hold off full judgement on a stallion until he's hit his third crop. I think by then you can get a semi-decent idea of which way he's going to go. For me, I'm really picky that proven stallions show the ability to (a) get them to the track and (b) get them to the winners circle (I usually want to see a 70/50 split) because that's half the battle and I don't have the funds to piss away hoping for the "big" horse. I'd rather spend $3500 and luck into a Brass Hat than risk $300,000 hoping for a Sharmandal. The Brass Hat's more fun anyway
I don't have low self-esteem. I have low esteem for everyone else. ~ Daria
hi austique
City Zip's son With A City is obviously a nice horse with two-turn ability...but he is out of a mare that I believe should be credited with injecting staying power upon staying power. Consider this...With A City's dam is by With Approval (staying power) and his 2nd dam is by a son of Vaguely Noble (staaayyyyying power like few others).
All things considered...I suggest that to tag him as the real deal...right now...is incorrect. I expect that City Zip himself (over the long haul) will probably expose his need for an injection of serious stayiong power from a mare to potentially get a TOP class two turn horses.
Don't you agree that we should watch his career unfold, at least for a while...and consider his accomplishments in relation to his opportunities before even considering annointing him with such a title as...the real deal.
Best to you.
Respectfully
City Zip's son With A City is obviously a nice horse with two-turn ability...but he is out of a mare that I believe should be credited with injecting staying power upon staying power. Consider this...With A City's dam is by With Approval (staying power) and his 2nd dam is by a son of Vaguely Noble (staaayyyyying power like few others).
All things considered...I suggest that to tag him as the real deal...right now...is incorrect. I expect that City Zip himself (over the long haul) will probably expose his need for an injection of serious stayiong power from a mare to potentially get a TOP class two turn horses.
Don't you agree that we should watch his career unfold, at least for a while...and consider his accomplishments in relation to his opportunities before even considering annointing him with such a title as...the real deal.
Best to you.
Respectfully
Last edited by FOS on Sat Mar 25, 2006 4:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
city zip
Thanks for your interesting comments. All well reasoned. It will be fun to watch what happens with some of the other first year guys, like Five Star Day, etc.
Fos, what do you think of Pollard's Vision - a Carson City that went two turns and very well. Is he bred to pass it on, do you think?
race
Fos, what do you think of Pollard's Vision - a Carson City that went two turns and very well. Is he bred to pass it on, do you think?
race
What I took "the real deal" to mean is that he's a legitimate sire who can get you a nice horse and will probably stick around (i.e. he's not King of Kings ). I could care less that he's only producing sprinters. If you look at his race record, that's sort of a given and after all most of the races run in the U.S. are sprints. Also, one has to be careful not to pigeonhole a sire this young and with such a small sample of produce in comparison to his competitors. You've been very quick to annoit Songandaprayer as a hot young product, but his foals are getting less distance than City Zip's at this point in their respective careers.
The point is that he's showing signs of promise. He's getting them to the track, they're winning, and he's getting a decent amount of stakes performers for a horse that started off with a small book in a regional market. He's improving his mares so far (and yes I know the AEI/CI numbers are suspect, somebody come up with a better one and I'll use it). Is City Zip ever going to command a 6 figure stud fee? Probably not, but he is proving so far to be a useful sire and he'll probably stick around for a while if he keeps it up.
Is Tiznow the real deal? 14 winners from a crop of 91 and average earnings per starter of around $17,000 when Folklore is taken out of the equation. City Zip is doing a good job with the opportunities afforded him, that is a fact that can't be argued.
). I could care less that he's only producing sprinters. If you look at his race record, that's sort of a given and after all most of the races run in the U.S. are sprints. Also, one has to be careful not to pigeonhole a sire this young and with such a small sample of produce in comparison to his competitors. You've been very quick to annoit Songandaprayer as a hot young product, but his foals are getting less distance than City Zip's at this point in their respective careers.
The point is that he's showing signs of promise. He's getting them to the track, they're winning, and he's getting a decent amount of stakes performers for a horse that started off with a small book in a regional market. He's improving his mares so far (and yes I know the AEI/CI numbers are suspect, somebody come up with a better one and I'll use it). Is City Zip ever going to command a 6 figure stud fee? Probably not, but he is proving so far to be a useful sire and he'll probably stick around for a while if he keeps it up.
Is Tiznow the real deal? 14 winners from a crop of 91 and average earnings per starter of around $17,000 when Folklore is taken out of the equation. City Zip is doing a good job with the opportunities afforded him, that is a fact that can't be argued.
I don't have low self-esteem. I have low esteem for everyone else. ~ Daria
hi austique
Fair enough...no argument here, by that definition.
A high percentage of the Songandaprayers that I've seen are superior individuals. I cannot say the same about the City Zips I've seen. Maybe I have just not seen the good ones .
I expect bigger and better things (in general) from Songandaprayer (as a sire) than I expect from City Zip (as a sire).
Again...fair enough.
To my way of thinking...NO!!! But he did get a VERY good 2-yo filly in Folklore. Now let's see Tiznow come up with an impressive percentage of very nice stakes-winners. He's been offered a very good opportunity at WinStar...but he needs to do a lot more as a racehorse sire, as far as I'm concerned. Tiznow...the real deal? Far from it (to my way of thinking).
Again...your definition of the real deal and my definition of the real deal are different...regardless, it sounds (to a large degree) like we might haves similar feelings about both City Zip and Tiznow.
Respectfully
austique wrote:What I took "the real deal" to mean is that he's a legitimate sire who can get you a nice horse and will probably stick around (i.e. he's not King of Kings
Fair enough...no argument here, by that definition.
austique wrote: You've been very quick to annoit Songandaprayer as a hot young product, but his foals are getting less distance than City Zip's at this point in their respective careers.
A high percentage of the Songandaprayers that I've seen are superior individuals. I cannot say the same about the City Zips I've seen. Maybe I have just not seen the good ones
. I expect bigger and better things (in general) from Songandaprayer (as a sire) than I expect from City Zip (as a sire).
austique wrote:Is City Zip ever going to command a 6 figure stud fee? Probably not, but he is proving so far to be a useful sire and he'll probably stick around for a while if he keeps it up.
Again...fair enough.
austique wrote:Is Tiznow the real deal?
To my way of thinking...NO!!! But he did get a VERY good 2-yo filly in Folklore. Now let's see Tiznow come up with an impressive percentage of very nice stakes-winners. He's been offered a very good opportunity at WinStar...but he needs to do a lot more as a racehorse sire, as far as I'm concerned. Tiznow...the real deal? Far from it (to my way of thinking).
Again...your definition of the real deal and my definition of the real deal are different...regardless, it sounds (to a large degree) like we might haves similar feelings about both City Zip and Tiznow.
Respectfully
Fair enough! I'm just amazed I wrote a post that long defending a stallion I would probably never use I'm not anti-Songandaprayer either although his progeny's unsoundness worries me probably to the same degree that City Zip's confirmational shortcomings worry me
I'm not anti-Songandaprayer either although his progeny's unsoundness worries me probably to the same degree that City Zip's confirmational shortcomings worry me I don't have low self-esteem. I have low esteem for everyone else. ~ Daria
hi austique
Fair enough
Best to you.
Respectfully
austique wrote:Fair enough! I'm just amazed I wrote a post that long defending a stallion I would probably never use
Fair enough
Best to you.
Respectfully
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rudydee
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My City Zip story
I have a mare who has been having babies that are very well conformed.
To take advantage of New York's breeding program, I had to breed back to a NY based stallion. I narrowed my choices down to Good and Tough and City Zip. I called around to a number of stallion managers all who said the same thing-City Zip is a conformational mess on his front end. It is the reason he was so inexpensive as a yearling. So, I went for Good and Tough. The resultant foal is a conformational mess. This business is so humbling.
To take advantage of New York's breeding program, I had to breed back to a NY based stallion. I narrowed my choices down to Good and Tough and City Zip. I called around to a number of stallion managers all who said the same thing-City Zip is a conformational mess on his front end. It is the reason he was so inexpensive as a yearling. So, I went for Good and Tough. The resultant foal is a conformational mess. This business is so humbling.
city zip
Well, City Zip has had two Graded Stakes horses in the last week - one G3 second with Celestial Legend, and With a City's win Saturday in the G2 Lane's End. And he is the leading second crop sire by money won and winners. Not bad for a $15,000 sire whose runners are mostly from New York mares bred on a $4,000 stud fee.
But, as has been noted, it is still early. It will be fun to watch him, and others as the year develops.
tbrace
But, as has been noted, it is still early. It will be fun to watch him, and others as the year develops.
tbrace