How Far Can You Go On Sales Alone

[austique]

Okay I looking at a the third crop sires list and I happened to hit on one name (Not FuPeg or GC) who struck me as being the most grossly overpriced stallion possibly out there today and so I looked at his stats and while he got a fair amount of starters few of them won and he was no huge stakes producer (7 SW, 2 GR III winners) and his earnings per starter are low for his stud fee. He does sell well; however, and I guess my question is, in this age of huge books when mediocore stallions are said to be flushed out quicker how do horses with subpar production hang around on sales strength (How do they maintain the sales strength in the first place?)? Are people so married to pedigree and hype that they would overlook everything else?

His stats:

Mystery Stallion (fee towards the upper echelon for 3rd crop sires; somebody will figure him out anyways, but I'm going to make you work for it )
Foals (3yo and up):113
% starters: 64%
% winners: 30%
% stakes winners: 6% (2% grade III)
average earnings per starter: $33,761
AEI/CI: 1.60/3.11
2005 yearling averge: $152,231

[Sam]

I think I have a pretty good idea who you're talking about, and I was never that fond of him as a sire prospect to begin with.

Nice grass horse from a really good racemare, but I always had a hard time accepting that stud fee based on his pedigree.

He's a decent half sibling (actually, is that 3/4?) that just went to stud, but the female family is questionable once you get past mom (3rd dam produced some good horses that dropped some good horses, but if you look close, they're all South American, Chilean mostly ... questionable in my eyes since the lines they work with and the conditions they race under are so different from ours) The second dam was unraced but threw two nice mares. Third dam and beyond is ... uninspiring.

There's some good black type there in the first three dams (which is where I concentrate), but not really a sire producing family. I always felt he would have limited appeal so he got lucky going where he did because they have a good spin doctor doing PR (not as good as Claiborne's). Honestly, I saw him better as a FL stallion than a KY one.

Actually, FOS and I had a pretty protracted argument over him a while ago that really amounted to us having the same overall opinion (that the horse should have run on at 4 to earn his studfee) but FOS kept insinuating that he 'retired early' and should have run one more race to clinched division honors. The FACT is he retired after the Breeders' Cup and there was NO race left on the schedule within his range (he's a miler) that would have given him the title.

[LSB]

Just because they're charging that stud fee, doesn't mean they're getting it. It would be interesting to see what kind of deals can be had on "Mystery Stallion" for 2006. I suspect you can probably breed to him for 2/3 of the advertised fee.

As to his sales results from last year, he was still coasting along on the benefit of the doubt, many people thinking that his offspring would get better as they matured.

I have to say that I really do like his pedigree. I, personally, wouldn't write him off just yet--but then I haven't given up hope that Lemon Drop Kid will turn around either.

[austique]

Lemon Drop Kid is at least more reasonable in his fee and is a few notches up from Mystery on the list, but LSB brings up an interesting point. Mystery's fee is quite probably soft as is his unattractive stablemate's who is also quite overpriced (although he's showing some gasps of life). Obviously a fee that high is meant to give the appearance of class, but if few of the mares in the stallion's book pay the full fee and its pretty well know in the industry doesn't it become a bit of a joke? And he's a grass horse...isn't that supposed to be the kiss of death. Flag on the play...

On another note, how long do Smarty Jones and Ghostzapper hold on to their fees if their early production is soft?

[louis finochio]

SJ and GZ come from the same mold, early maturing and speed to burn.

Those types of stallions are a god send because if their first crops fail the test on the race track, its over for them.

When you have a late maturing stallion stamina stallion like Alphabet Soup, you have to wait until his 5th crop before you can declare them a hit or miss.

TB breeders that send their best mares to any freshman stallion are shooting at the moon.

[HR LLC]

Sounds like War Chant...

[StrawberryFelidos]

Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh,
you're not supposed to give the secret away
($60k is a nice whoppin' stud fee there, isn't it? Whew)

[summerhorse]

Actually 6% SWs puts him in the higher SW siring brackets. Most of the stallion directory (including FuPeg and Giant) were 5% and below. A good stallion is 4-5% (fees bearing NO resemblance to actual production), mediocre 3-4%, below that, geld him... LOL

the better stallions (of which there were darn few) were 6-9%, the great stallions 10% and up (an ELITE number...).

But $60,000 IS too high I think. But so is $100,000 for Forestry, $125,000 for Fupeg, etc.

Of course they are counting the sales profits but those should go bust pretty soon no matter HOW pretty the babies are if they don't perform...

It is the craziest business marketplace I've ever seen. Reward the untried, penalize the proven. Go figure...

[halo]

I don't think a good stallion is in the 4-5% stakes winners category. A GOOD stallion should be in the 8-10%. 4-5% is pretty ordinary.

[halo]

I pulled up some stakes winner percentages on some horses just randomly, including some of our solid Florida horses. These of course don't include current 2 year olds.

Concerto - 6% Stakes winners
Montbrook - 6%
Concordes Tune - 6%
Sweetsouthernsaint - 6%
El Prado - 8%
Holy Bull - 4.5%
Forestry - 9%
Storm Cat - 13%
Forest Wildcat - 7%
Slew City Slew - 5%
Louis Quatorze - 4.7%
War Chant - 6%
Unbridleds Song - 8%

[louis finochio]

Halo: How many of those stallions produced GR SW, thats the meat and potatoes of the game?

[Mahubah]

Actually, I would consider a good solid allowance horse or upper-level claimer that's paying his own way "meat and potatoes." Graded stakes winners are the champagne.

[summerhorse]

I was talking "good" by the numbers as is good equals average or a bit above. (you know acceptable but not outstanding) Anything 6% and up is just by the numbers not very common so I would put them above average. The ones 9% and up are even more rare, above 10% you can count on your fingers...

MOST common numbers are 4% and DOWN. I wouldn't even consider breeding to race from these stallions. (some would make nice sport sires) 5% is iffy, depends on the horse, fee and mare but the very bottom of what I'd consider. I would look at 6% and up, 10% and up is almost certainly going to be well out of MY reach EVER. And probably most average breeders.

Personally I was really kind of shocked when I went through the stallion directory and saw how many of these high priced horses only were producing 4-5% SWs (or less).

I would go by SWs, graded SWs are as above the champagne, what less than 1% or 3% ?? of the TBs achieve that level. Everyone wants one but I'd be pretty happy if I got horses that were all just stakes winners!

[FOS]

hi austique

...how long do Smarty Jones and Ghostzapper hold on to their fees if their early production is soft?

I sense that SJ might start dropping like a hot potato if he doesn't get something done very early-on as a sire...and if something isn't popping for him by April or May of the year he has his first three-year-olds out there...he might be in a serious state, and possibly in a big-time downward spiral. Smarty aside...if things don't happen for SJ early and often, some of his put-the-money-up supporters might be in a state of numbness, or even a Tony Soprano-like coma.

As for Ghostzapper...I expect he will be granted a longer stay for a number of reasons. For starters...Ghostzapper raced against and CRUSHED older horses...and was a G1 winner at 6.5-furlongs (as a 3-yo in the G1-Vosburgh versus older horses)...a mile (in the G1-Met Mile versus older horses)...and a mile and a quarter (in the G1-BC Classic versus older horses). Smarty Jones NEVER faced older horses...NEVER.

As for breeding to Ghostzapper...even if you are ready, willing and able to sign a contract and fork over $200k, the Adena Springs crew will flat turn you down if your mare doesn't meet or surpass their VERY high standards for acceptance. Clearly Adena/Stronach/Jackson have the ability to offer their Horse of the Year a superior opportunity regardless of outside support...and have set the bar VERY high.

The big number of seasons still available to SJ (for 2006) seems to speak volumes...at least to Smarty's $100k advertised stud fee. I also hear many comments re: SJ which clearly amplify doubts as to his chances for success as a sire. It all seems to be spilling over into the support (or lack therof) category...and increased resistance to his $100k advertised stud fee.

Ghostzapper's book is being managed very closely, and obtaining a season to him might be analogous (tongue in cheek of course ) to the degree of difficulty of admission to Harvard or Yale (okay maybe just Princeton or Dartmouth ). If you've got the mare that meets or surpasses the VERY high bar for acceptance...plus you've got the cash...you're in.

As for the Jones boy...a pocketful of cash and a mare with a viable uterus and a reasonably nice page is probably enough to get you a season to him right now.

Smarty certainly had ability, but to my way of thinking he (in comparison) could not hold a candle to Ghostzapper (as a racehorse)...although to SJ's credit he won two legs of the triple crown and Ghostzapper did not. That said...when it comes to sire success...does winning one or more of the classics (take a glance at some recent years) really translate or mean a whole lot, in general. That said...will Smarty Jones fall into the category of the likes of some recent classic winners such as Real Quiet...Victory Gallop...Charismatic...Silver Charm...etc etc etc...or will he become an important young sire? I don't know where he'll end up in the grand scheme of things...but I for one don't have great long-term expectations for him (as a sire). Regardless, I do wish him and his connections the best.

As for Ghostzapper...I do look for big things from him.

Respectfully

[Easy Goer]

For rough historical comparisons: Stakes winners by %:

Alibhai: 14
Bold Ruler: 23
Blue Larkspur: 15
Buckpasser: 11
Colin: 14
COunt Fleet: 11
Discovery: 8
friar rock 8
Heliopolis: 15
In Reality 16
Man of War: 17 (started out 28% in first five crops which includes 6 winners of classic races, i.e. TC races + CC Oaks and KY Oaks)
Mahmoud 17%
Menow: 11
Nasrullah: 23
Native Dancer: 14
Northern Dancer: 23
Pharamond II: 9
Polynesian: 12
Raise a Native 9
Ribot: 16
Rough n Tumble: 12
Royal Charger: 16
Sea Bird; (19% in only 7 seasons)
SIckle: 14
Sir Gallahad III: 11
Swaps: 8
Tom Fool 13
Turn To; 7
War Admiral: 11
War Relic: 5