Fasig-Tipton July Sale

roving boy · Postby **roving boy** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:16 pm

Laurie, you make some excellent points but when is buying a racehorse really an investment? Broodmares yes, weanlings and yearlings to pinhook maybe, but I do not think anyone plays racehorses as an investment outside of the claiming ranks.

BBay did run a big race in the KY Derby, finishing 5th after starting in the 20 hole. His race in the Affirmed was not good, but he would not be the first or last horse to not care for that surface.

The fellow that bought the horse is relatively new to the game and wanted to play at the stake level now - the trainer that helped him buy the horse is a CA trainer that watched the horse train all year. I think they have made a fairly educated gamble, and this horse should be a lot of fun for them.

If only I had $750,000 laying around doing nothing.... :lol:

ZiaLand · Postby **ZiaLand** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:35 pm

roving boy wrote:If only I had $750,000 laying around doing nothing....

LOL My thoughts exactly!

Your last comments actually add a lot more credence to the purchase, at least in my eyes (trainer recommendation, not liking the track surface in the Affirmed, etc.) I also thought Buzzard's Bay had had a much poorer showing in the KD than 5th. These morsels of information all add up to a more attractive gamble.

And maybe I'm in the vast minority by trying to look at purchasing TBs the way I would in purchasing a business, but that's the approach I'm taking (*ahem* on a much smaller budget).

Laurie

HR LLC · Postby **HR LLC** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 2:10 pm

ZiaLand,

Fact of the matter is no horse is guaranteed to earn any amount of money from racing. If someone told you this horse can make you x amount of dollars from racing, I would run as far as I can from that person. Even Afleet Alex is not guaranteed to earn a check in his next race. But a person can assume that a healthy Afleet Alex has a chance of earning a check in his next race especially against horses he beat before.

The fact that BB is already racing at a graded stakes level gives the buyer a small sense of confidence that this horse can compete at the graded stakes level. Its up to the owner/trainer to place him in a race that would give them the best chance to earn a check. I would avoid racing against Afleet Alex at all costs.

You think BB is worth 1/10th or 1/5th of 725k and I think he is worth the 725k. So we are far apart in our assessment.

ZiaLand · Postby **ZiaLand** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 3:00 pm

HR LLC, I'm sure your assessment is vastly more educated than mine is. I'm still new to the game and trying to puzzle out what is driving the prices on some of these purchases. Your comments, and those of Roving Boy and others on the forum have helped me get a better understanding of how value is determined. Thanks for your comments and your counterpoints to my analysis. I was obviously way off on this one, as I think the final bid on Buzzard's Bay speaks for itself.

Laurie

Pete · Postby **Pete** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 3:32 pm

Hi all,

Selling active race horses is very common, even at the best levels. War Emblem and Rock And Roll were both purchased (for about $1,000,000) just before the Derby.

You have the ability to use a financial model with horses that have a race record and fiscal sanity may prevail. Without a record, young stock relies on hope, perception and the buyers ego - a recipe for financial chaos.

Several years ago a 3yo gelding surprised by running 2nd in his first stakes race (a G1) and the following day his owners received more than 30 offers to purchase him ranging from $250,000 to $650,000 (most in the $500k range). Buzzards Bay is a better prospect than that gelding at the time and his price of $725,000 is a sane investment - certainly by the standards of high priced thoroughbred horses.

Regards,

Pete

Shergar · Postby **Shergar** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 10:43 pm

What in Buzzard's Bay makeup and pedigree suggests he wouldn't be a stallion prospect? A serious query, not a challenge to those in earlier posts that suggest he has no value as a sire prospect.

His sire and dam certainly don't get the pulse racing, but he has a lot of nice horses in his family. He has three crosses to Ribot in his first six generations, which could suggest he could impart some staying power??

Would he ever be of value as a regional sire?

Regards, Shergar

Pete · Postby **Pete** » Sun Jul 24, 2005 12:41 am

Hi Shergar,

I think it's a certainty that Buzzard's Bay will stand at stud, somewhere. He's a G1 winner and they're few and far between.

Should he add a lot of wins and earnings to his credentials, he might end up in Kentucky, but 'd consider that a longshot. More likely he'll go to a regional program.

Commercially, he has no visibility. His pedigree is plain and will not inspire breeders. You may be the only person that would notice that he has three crosses to Ribot in six generations - for most breeders and commercially, not a factor - perhaps not even of interest.

Regards,

Pete

Shergar · Postby **Shergar** » Sun Jul 24, 2005 12:56 am

Pete:

You are quite right, (As always) regarding BB's plain pedigree.

I guess not having a cajillion crosses of Mr. P and ND just makes BB DOA!

No knock on Mr. P and ND, as they were great at stud, and fantastic sires or sires. It just seems one can't swing a dead cat without hitting one of their sons standing at stud.

All the best to you, Shergar

PS: I apologize in advance to all cat lovers.

LSB · Postby **LSB** » Sun Jul 24, 2005 7:09 am

When I look at Buzzard Bay's pedigree with regard to his value as a stallion, it isn't the absence of Mr.P and Northern Dancer that bothers me.

First, his sire is Marco Bay who, in 7 crops, has produced 29 winners and only 1 other stakes winner besides Buzzards Bay.

His first dam is unraced herself and has 4 foals of racing age. BB is the only one to race thusfar.

His second dam is a winner with minor black type, who produced 7 foals, none of whom earned black type themselves.

etc, etc.

By the time I worked my way six generations back to Ribot, I would have to pass a lot of fairly unaccomplished horses in the meantime. There simply isn't enough strength or depth here to interest me.

FOS · Postby **FOS** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 9:42 am

hi ZiaLand

One bad step and Buzzards Bay might be the equivalent of a $40,000 claimer or a $3,500 advertised stud fee stallion (by Marco Bay out of a mare by Seneca Jones...OUCH) with probably a short line to breed to him (and maybe two-for-ones offered that might attract some paying customers to help fill his book).

Yes he is a G1 winner, and Yes he might run up a big bankroll, and Yes I can understand the case being made for him...at $725,000; but I couldn't recommend buying him at that number unless the alternative was to throw the money into a bonfire (written tongue-in-cheek).

Although he did win the G1 Santa Anita Derby...as far as I'm concerned his residual value is miniscule...but if someone believes they can make BB's purchase (at $725,000) work for them...Good Luck.

The question I ask is...Is the risk worth the possible reward? Obviously someone thought so. I wish them success.

Best to you.

Respectfully

roving boy · Postby **roving boy** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 10:24 am

FOS, I understand your reasoning for why you would not buy BB at that price. But what if you were a wealthy new player in the game that wanted to go to the big races, wouldn't he be a better buy than any other 3 year old that had evidenced that level of ability? I cannot think of another 3 year old that has shown G1 ability that would sell for less than $1mm.

FOS · Postby **FOS** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 4:53 pm

hi roving boy

You pose an interesting premise.

I for one could not recommend Buzzards Bay at $725k (as I indicated previously)...BUT...

...if the prospective buyer insisted that BB was the horse that might take him/her immediately to the promised-land...I could understand the attraction.

Assuming that Buzzards Bay passed all the veterinary obstacles etc...and the "wealthy new player in the game" (as your hypothetical references) was completely aware of and understood all the racing-related risks v reward scenarios...and was further aware of the limited (maybe miniscule) value of BB after his racing days were over...and he/she could take the hit (both financially and emotionally) if everything went sour...maybe...

...but it would have to be the prospective buyer's decision 100%...and only after All Things are Considered related to his/her initial $725,000 expenditure. In that case...I might understand it (but I expect I'd still find it difficult to recommend that someone pull the trigger at $725k)...but if they did I'd support their ultimate decision 100% and do everything within my power to make it work.

Best to you.

Respectfully

Pete · Postby **Pete** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 9:46 pm

Hi all,

LSB, in fairness, Marco Bay has had about 70 foals. A couple that have run up decent career totals, but Marco's not to be confused with Broad Brush. The absence of Mr. Prospector and Northern Dancer would probably be his best hope at stud.

Roving, your explanation was on the mark, probably better stated than I would have.

FOS, you're being sensible, but that's not what makes this game go. Buzzards Bay is a better risk to get into a graded stakes race than most $500k yearling purchases. Of course, he has some of the negative appeal of a used car. As far as his residual value, perhaps $100k - at this time. You're being generous at $3,500 and correct about the short line (although rumor has it that LSB's buyig mares to send to him - or was it sugar peeps?

.

Regards,

Pete

roving boy · Postby **roving boy** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 5:51 am

By the way, the breeder of BB will sell all his horses, including the great stallion Marco Bay! Of course, his price may be a bit stronger than what a public auction would generate....

SO maybe LSB should just buy Marco Bay and have a homebred operation? :lol:

LSB · Postby **LSB** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 5:57 am

roving boy wrote:SO maybe LSB should just buy Marco Bay and have a homebred operation?