Keeneland - Hip #1866

[Pav]

My family bred and raced horses when I was a kid, and I’ve been wanting to get back in the horse business for a long-time. I’m especially interested in breeding, so I have been following breeding trends, theories, and sales for years. I am always looking for connections to horses that we had growing up, and sure enough I ran across a mare with a personal connection at the upcoming Keeneland November breeding stock sale – Hip #1866, Christmas Surprise. We bred and raised her dam, Simple Surprise, who was a nice racehorse (stakes winner) and a good broodmare (produced 2 stakes winners). In addition to the personal connection, there are a couple of things I really like about this mare, including Include as the covering stallion, and the fact that she’s young. On the other hand, she unraced, which gives me some concern about soundness. I would appreciate anyone’s thought on this mare, including pedigree, mating, etc. Also, does anyone have any insight about the price range this mare may fall in? Thanks!

[Douglas Brown]

Keeneland does a pretty good job of placing their horses for sale in a descending price format (higher dollar horses with lower hip numbers first). Hip #1866 is in Book 3 and sells on day 6 (out of 14). You can go to their webiste and see what horses in this Hip #-range sold for in the past and that should give you an approximate starting point to see if you would even be able to buy her. If the price average doesn't scare you off, you can go to the next step which is the follow-up to your initial question - an assessment based upon pedigree, catalog page, etc..

[jagger]

Good advice by Doug Brown. You could guess a little about her value based on the stud fee of Include which I think was 12.5k. If you use the rough equation of the stud fee being 1/4 to 1/3 the value of the mare, this would put her at 36k to 50k. This is VERY rough guess, though. The Include/Christmas Surprise E-nick is A (176%) for those who take this into consideration.

Include's weanlings average 50K and yearlings 45k. He has had 3 crops with 1 graded stakes winner and a few graded stakes placers. His biggest winner to date has won 184K.

[CA Michael]

20-35 k, depending on the strength of the middle market come sale day.

Include--much to my astonishment--shows signs of being a very nice sire, in spite of the Broad Brush curse. Diligence is a big ding on this mare's commercial appeal, and while the female family was productive in CA, it too doesn't have great appeal elsewhere. This mare did not sell as a young horse, so it's not possible to glean any insight to her conformation from a sales price.

You might also want to consider the Barretts mixed sale on Halloween. There will be lots of ghoulishly low prices there, some very good values.

[madelyn]

I think this mare will go for much closer to $20K.. maybe even less. In fact if I were to put a number on her I would say $15K.

What would the mare go for open? Diligence is a pretty big slam on her even though her family isn't all that bad... $12.5K was too high a fee for this mare. You can almost bet this was a mare share.

[Pav]

Thanks to all who responded. The price range estimates provided were about (or a little higher than) what I thought - my initial estimate was about $15-$20K. I do agree that she was bred "up" this past year. I also think that she could make a nice broodmare prospect, particularly in California, with some ties locally. Now that I know I'm at least in the ballpark, it's time for some more research and maybe even some travel plans to Keeneland (I've never been to Keeneland, or for that matter, any sale outside Calfornia). Thanks again!

[Pav]

Sad news. I inquired about this mare with the consignor, and it turns out that she was killed in a lightning storm this past month. I will likley not be coming to Keeneland now... maybe it's a sign that it's not time for me to get back in the business. Thanks to all who provided information.

[Douglas Brown]

Pav,

Very sorry to hear about the news on the mare.

Doug

[Thunder]

Pav - Don't let your dreams die.