I was chatting with a pal recently who is a bloodstock agent, and we developed a couple of opinions as to why Keeneland is just sort of rolling along this year and there are no fireworks or big prices being paid, compared to past sales.
His #1 opinion:
With the changes in surfaces at so many tracks coming, confidence in dirt-only sires is severely challenged and MUCH fewer folks are willing to risk dollars on horses whose surface might be gone by the time the horse is ready to race.
My #1 opinion:
Times were tough this year and the money is just not there for the sellers and consignors to play the cap gun game anymore. That is, pay the commissions on huge sell-to-each-other-for ridiculous-sums-to-prop-up-my-stallion games. Plus, Keeneland is, this year, enforcing the consignor-bad-debt rule, letting them keep sales proceeds from horses sold by consignors who owe Keeneland past debts. This SCREWS the seller out of his or her money and virtually GUARANTEES the consignor will be sued.
Comments anyone?
Keeneland - Why the Long Face?
Moderators: Roguelet, WaveMaster, madelyn
Keeneland - Why the Long Face?
So Run for the Roses, as fast as you can.....
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kimberley mine
- Breeder's Cup Contender
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Everything in business has cycles, and I think the signs of a downward cycle in the horse market have been there for at least 2 years. Green Monkey was a jump-the-shark moment...after that, there was nowhere to go but down.
Two years ago, the top end was roaring, the middle market was very strong, and there were signs of weakness in the bottom end. For most blue-collar racehorse breeders, this is the point where one could buy a good low-level fun horse for cheaper than breeding one.
One year ago, the top end was doing well, the middle market was extremely picky over who they would take, and the bottom fell out. Instead of yearling sales and 2yo sales, the market began shifting to horses in training.
This year, the top end is much smaller, the middle market is in trouble, and the low end is going for peanuts. Buyers are going for proven racehorse sires over young, unproven sires, given the economics of the game.
This is in line with the general trend in the economy as a whole, and specifically goes along with the tightening of credit that has happened, particularly in the last year. I'm not surprised to see the denial of credit to the oral surgeon in the UK--probably last year she could have gotten credit, but this year the rules are different.
I expect to see stud fees in general to fall for next year.
Two years ago, the top end was roaring, the middle market was very strong, and there were signs of weakness in the bottom end. For most blue-collar racehorse breeders, this is the point where one could buy a good low-level fun horse for cheaper than breeding one.
One year ago, the top end was doing well, the middle market was extremely picky over who they would take, and the bottom fell out. Instead of yearling sales and 2yo sales, the market began shifting to horses in training.
This year, the top end is much smaller, the middle market is in trouble, and the low end is going for peanuts. Buyers are going for proven racehorse sires over young, unproven sires, given the economics of the game.
This is in line with the general trend in the economy as a whole, and specifically goes along with the tightening of credit that has happened, particularly in the last year. I'm not surprised to see the denial of credit to the oral surgeon in the UK--probably last year she could have gotten credit, but this year the rules are different.
I expect to see stud fees in general to fall for next year.
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Morningside
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JCBloodstock
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I'm quite pleased - #1938 sold today for $240,000 by Grand Reward;Have his momma too,she'll have a Silver Deputy filly at Keeneland November and the mare is for sale too.She's in foal to Grand Slam for a 2009 foal;PM if interested.
I listed the mare once here and literally got slammed on what kind of a junk mare she was.But that's kind of the problem with public forums.Some know what it's about and many pretend.Since that time she's had a Scrimshaw filly sell at Keeneland April for $435,000 and now the Grand Reward colt for $240,000;I'm pleased.
Anyhow,I think the sale is doing better than most think.Cheap ones are vetting poor but there's been a lot of mid-range selling for decent prices off modest stud fee's.
Sincerely-Jeff
I listed the mare once here and literally got slammed on what kind of a junk mare she was.But that's kind of the problem with public forums.Some know what it's about and many pretend.Since that time she's had a Scrimshaw filly sell at Keeneland April for $435,000 and now the Grand Reward colt for $240,000;I'm pleased.
Anyhow,I think the sale is doing better than most think.Cheap ones are vetting poor but there's been a lot of mid-range selling for decent prices off modest stud fee's.
Sincerely-Jeff
The middle market is strong and the money is deep for a good horse. The top was lighter than usual, but to say the middle market is dropping just isn't true.
Try to buy a decent horse today and you'll find out quickly.
Congrats on the nice sale, JC. I like the Grand Rewards. I think he's getting less respect than he deserves and many of them are a touch on the small side but have good bone and a great shoulder and rear.
Try to buy a decent horse today and you'll find out quickly.
Congrats on the nice sale, JC. I like the Grand Rewards. I think he's getting less respect than he deserves and many of them are a touch on the small side but have good bone and a great shoulder and rear.
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kimberley mine
- Breeder's Cup Contender
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magic code
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I take it neither of you are buying in the middle market at the moment. I've managed to get one filly where I would have been able to get 3 or 4 last year (and I did).
And while I agree that some of the bigger money that is usually spent in the first two books is now being spent later in the sale, it just means the middle market is that much stronger.
Good horses and even "just nice" horses are selling real well, especially fillies this year.
And while I agree that some of the bigger money that is usually spent in the first two books is now being spent later in the sale, it just means the middle market is that much stronger.
Good horses and even "just nice" horses are selling real well, especially fillies this year.