I have talked to a lot of commercial breeders and consignors and all agree the market is poor. It is a buyers market. I breed to race so I am pretty thrilled with the market right now....excellent values.
However, the commercial breeder would rather pull his horse out of the sale than take a financial hit. It shocks me. I have tried to buy 3 horses and I just shake my head at the reserves.
Well, these commercial breeders have no problem when their yearlings sell for 3 or 4 times what they are really worth!! You cannot have your cake and eat it too!! If you allow the market to determine a n exaggerated high price one year for your horse than you have to allow the market to choose a low price in another.
Those are the breaks if you breed commercially.
I just can't believe how many breeders still have their reserves set high. Of course, as a breeder, I know how much it costs to breed and raise a foal. However, if you play the commercial game than sometimes you have to bite the bullet and take a financial hit.
I am sure these breeders won't be saying, "No, I will not accept six figures for my horse as it is only worth a quarter of that amount" when the market goes crazy and sells high.
No way! They will be cashing that check faster than you can blink.
Commercial breeders cannot have it both ways. They need to let the market determine the value of their horse....
On another note, I wonder if more breeders chose to breed to race how much better the industry would be?
I am going through the Keenland Nov. catalog pages and page after page is an unraced/unproven mare with the "right bloodlines" bred to a first year stallion. Hello!! I would never breed an unproven mare to an unproven stallion no matter the pedigree. It just makes no sense.
Then, you have a solid mare with a good race record and a good production record bred to a proven race stallion sell for dirt as her bloodlines are not "hot." I just don't get it. However, I can't complain too much as I will have my trailer ready for said mare!!
Seriously though....I am finding a lot of commercial breeders want to do the right thing but they are not stupid. They know it is not financially feasible. They want to take that proven race mare with unfashionable bloodlines to a race sire. For example, they know she raced with front wraps; has long pasterns; and want to breed her to a stallion that throws good angles in the front. In other words, they take time to figure out who would be the best stallion based on the mare's pedigree, race ability, and conformation and will send her to a proven stallion that will help bridge the gap.
However, they also know that the modern buyer (pinhooker) looks for 3 things:
1) Hot bloodlines
2) Size and a Monster physical
3) First year Covering stallion
Thus, they breed paper to paper and hope for the best.
It's like a vicious circle.......
I think it stems from the fact that more people are in the TB game for the commercial end then the race end. It has become more successful to breed to sell than to breed a grade 1 winner. It's a shame.
The problem with Commercial breeders
Moderators: Roguelet, WaveMaster, madelyn
I don't see your gripe.
Of course you can bitch about the market but also set a reserve you feel is appropriate for your horse. Who are you (general term) to tell me what I think my horse is worth?
At the end of the day, you give me what I want for it or I race the animal myself. If they're willing to put their money where their mouth is, what's the problem?
Of course you can bitch about the market but also set a reserve you feel is appropriate for your horse. Who are you (general term) to tell me what I think my horse is worth?
At the end of the day, you give me what I want for it or I race the animal myself. If they're willing to put their money where their mouth is, what's the problem?
Re: The problem with Commercial breeders
pokeyman wrote:Commercial breeders cannot have it both ways. They need to let the market determine the value of their horse....
No way. Why should they?
Every breeder is perfectly free to determine the value of his own horses. If you don't want to pay what they're asking, walk away.
Many breeders would rather race their horses than sell them cheap. What makes you think you have the right to tell them to do things differently?
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chicago78
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- Location: Chicago, Ocala
The Ocala sale was definitely brutal, but after being there the last three days, I believe that it was basically a market correction after the yearling sales, and I also thought a ton of the stock was poor. Lots of unraced, crooked mares in foal to stallions <5,000; and the resulting foals from these mares will be in the last book or two of the Keeneland sale, which were also horrible. It's more of a market correction than anything else in my opinion.
This business is definitely out of whack, with the cost of feed, vets, boarding, van companies, and whatever else rising, and the handle at our racetracks and the price of bloodstock dropping; but look at most other industries in our country. Real estate, banks, insurance companies, etc are all going through it, so I can't see many people lining up to fix the horse business.
As in any business, a good rule is to be an easy seller and a tough buyer. If you're a commercial breeder and need to sell horses to stay in the business, it's probably wise to sell the ones you bring over, even if you're not getting what you dreamt of when the mating was made, or the horse was purchased before attempting to pinhook it or whatever. If you're culling mares, either to reduce stock that doesn't fit your program, or trying lower the feed/board bill or whatever, it makes sense to sell the horses for what they bring.
We sent seven mares that were all culls through the ring at OBS. 3 we had to give away, 3 brought $2,500 each, and one brought $35,000. The $35,000 mare was quite a bit more than I expected, and the cheap ones I thought would bring in the $2,500 to $5,000 range.
The thoroughbred market is still pretty sophisticated, and the good horses still sell well. We bought four fillies at Keeneland, and were outbid on a ton that we liked the first few days. Three of the four fillies we bought we paid a little more than we wanted to, and the consigners were hoping for a little bit more than they got, so they were probably pretty fair prices. The last I thought was a bargain, and the consigner was thrilled with such a high price too, so who knows.
Bottom line is that I think people need to be very selective with the horses that they breed, buy, sell, or whatever. The market's going to go through a correction, and stud fees will certainly come down. A pretty basic rule is if it costs $15,000 to get a horse to the yearling sale, and you put a $5,000 stud fee into the mare, you better be able to get at least $30,000 for a foal to make it worth your time and effort. If the mare's not likely to produce a commercial yearling, it's not worth it.
This business is definitely out of whack, with the cost of feed, vets, boarding, van companies, and whatever else rising, and the handle at our racetracks and the price of bloodstock dropping; but look at most other industries in our country. Real estate, banks, insurance companies, etc are all going through it, so I can't see many people lining up to fix the horse business.
As in any business, a good rule is to be an easy seller and a tough buyer. If you're a commercial breeder and need to sell horses to stay in the business, it's probably wise to sell the ones you bring over, even if you're not getting what you dreamt of when the mating was made, or the horse was purchased before attempting to pinhook it or whatever. If you're culling mares, either to reduce stock that doesn't fit your program, or trying lower the feed/board bill or whatever, it makes sense to sell the horses for what they bring.
We sent seven mares that were all culls through the ring at OBS. 3 we had to give away, 3 brought $2,500 each, and one brought $35,000. The $35,000 mare was quite a bit more than I expected, and the cheap ones I thought would bring in the $2,500 to $5,000 range.
The thoroughbred market is still pretty sophisticated, and the good horses still sell well. We bought four fillies at Keeneland, and were outbid on a ton that we liked the first few days. Three of the four fillies we bought we paid a little more than we wanted to, and the consigners were hoping for a little bit more than they got, so they were probably pretty fair prices. The last I thought was a bargain, and the consigner was thrilled with such a high price too, so who knows.
Bottom line is that I think people need to be very selective with the horses that they breed, buy, sell, or whatever. The market's going to go through a correction, and stud fees will certainly come down. A pretty basic rule is if it costs $15,000 to get a horse to the yearling sale, and you put a $5,000 stud fee into the mare, you better be able to get at least $30,000 for a foal to make it worth your time and effort. If the mare's not likely to produce a commercial yearling, it's not worth it.
Well, I don't think I have the right to tell them anything.
Unfortunately, too many people overvalue their horses.
Thus, in hard economic times like the present, we have a glut of horses that are not bred to race. So, what will happen to all of these horses?? Most of the sellers do not race.
I shudder to think of all the horses that RNA'd with zero bids or sellers who think the market will improve next year.
I do not know if they realize the costs to get a yearling through the 2 year old sales sound. They are better off selling now at a lower price.
I think a lot of the sellers have not been in the game long enough to realize just how bad the current market is...
In fact, I have personally turned down 3 horses that people have tried to GIVE me.
On another note, I tried to buy one particular horse at keenland by Swain out of a mare with zero black type and located at the end of book 8. They had a reserve of $50,000 on this filly. I just don't get it.
I will tell you that I feel sellers should sell to people who race even at a loss because I fear they will get stuck with a lot of horse flesh and not the financial means to race or train them. Again, what will happen to these horses who were not truly bred to race?
Unfortunately, this is the economic state we are in. I know there are a lot of new commercial "players" and I just feel they don't realize what lies behind the corner.
To the breeder who will race his foals that do not sell....well you are not really a commercial breeder after all are
you!
True commercial breeders do not race. They sell and sell again.
I know I shouldn't worry what other people do but I have never seen it this bad. I have never been offered 3 NY-bred horses with good pages for free because people overbred. They figured we race in NY and, at least, they might get kickbacks as the breeder.
I just hope I am wrong......
Unfortunately, too many people overvalue their horses.
Thus, in hard economic times like the present, we have a glut of horses that are not bred to race. So, what will happen to all of these horses?? Most of the sellers do not race.
I shudder to think of all the horses that RNA'd with zero bids or sellers who think the market will improve next year.
I do not know if they realize the costs to get a yearling through the 2 year old sales sound. They are better off selling now at a lower price.
I think a lot of the sellers have not been in the game long enough to realize just how bad the current market is...
In fact, I have personally turned down 3 horses that people have tried to GIVE me.
On another note, I tried to buy one particular horse at keenland by Swain out of a mare with zero black type and located at the end of book 8. They had a reserve of $50,000 on this filly. I just don't get it.
I will tell you that I feel sellers should sell to people who race even at a loss because I fear they will get stuck with a lot of horse flesh and not the financial means to race or train them. Again, what will happen to these horses who were not truly bred to race?
Unfortunately, this is the economic state we are in. I know there are a lot of new commercial "players" and I just feel they don't realize what lies behind the corner.
To the breeder who will race his foals that do not sell....well you are not really a commercial breeder after all are
you!
True commercial breeders do not race. They sell and sell again.
I know I shouldn't worry what other people do but I have never seen it this bad. I have never been offered 3 NY-bred horses with good pages for free because people overbred. They figured we race in NY and, at least, they might get kickbacks as the breeder.
I just hope I am wrong......
pokeyman wrote:Unfortunately, too many people overvalue their horses.
Thus, in hard economic times like the present, we have a glut of horses that are not bred to race. So, what will happen to all of these horses?? Most of the sellers do not race.
I shudder to think of all the horses that RNA'd with zero bids or sellers who think the market will improve next year.
I do not know if they realize the costs to get a yearling through the 2 year old sales sound. They are better off selling now at a lower price.
I think a lot of the sellers have not been in the game long enough to realize just how bad the current market is...
I think it's hard to lump all sellers into one, big, uninformed group. Perhaps if you knew more of them, you'd be pleasantly surprised. The vast majority of the breeders and sellers that I know are exceedingly aware of how tight the market is--and how expensive it is to own and train racehorses. Many know to the penny just how much their yearlings are worth, and what it will cost to carry them forward.
In fact, I have personally turned down 3 horses that people have tried to GIVE me.
On another note, I tried to buy one particular horse at keenland by Swain out of a mare with zero black type and located at the end of book 8. They had a reserve of $50,000 on this filly. I just don't get it.
Well the problem seems to be that you want expensive horses cheap and not cheap horses cheap.
I will tell you that I feel sellers should sell to people who race even at a loss because I fear they will get stuck with a lot of horse flesh and not the financial means to race or train them. Again, what will happen to these horses who were not truly bred to race?
Again, you've left me somewhat confused. I see very, very few racehorses that were "not truly bred to race". Sure, the occasional idiot breeds horses that are only meant to look good at a sale, but that type of breeder is truly not the norm. And if you feel that these horses are truly not bred to race, what do you intend to do with them?
Unfortunately, this is the economic state we are in. I know there are a lot of new commercial "players" and I just feel they don't realize what lies behind the corner.
To the breeder who will race his foals that do not sell....well you are not really a commercial breeder after all are
you!
True commercial breeders do not race. They sell and sell again.
Every smart breeder, no matter what their intentions, has a back-up plan. Nothing in this industry appears as black-and-white to me as it does to you. Commercial breeders often end up racing. Breed to race people sell some. Just because someone calls himself a commercial breeder doesn't mean that they can't explore other options in times of need. And I suspect that most, if not all, understand the economics of the business just as well as you do.
LB,
Good post and nice discussion!
Unfortunately, there are tons of horses not bred to race (as I define breed to race). I have come across to many sellers that breed an unraced mare with fashionable bloodlines to an unproven first year stallion (who may or may not have had more than a handful of starts). I do not consider this breeding to race.
I was shocked just how many of these horses fill the sales catalog. Check it out for yourself. I have gone through the entire Keenland Catalog twice now (to make sure I didn't miss anything).
I wish you were right that breeders have a back up plan but I am not sure it is true.
In regard to the yearlings, I did not take the well bed yearlings because they did not fit my profile. I know it costs just as much to feed and train a horse I like and want as it does the one I don't!! *wink*
I have found in my neck of the woods a lot of new breeders who have entered the industry as pinhookers not knowing the ins and out of the game or even being true horsemen.
You are right that true breeders (whether commercial or not) will have a back up plan. I just see a lot of people who jumped into the game when the market was hot and now they do not know how to make adjustments. Consignors tell them to hang on to the horse and sell it as a 2 year old but I do not think these newbies understand just how much it costs to get a horse through a 2 year old sale. *sigh*
I guess we will see how it all plays out. I hope the Keenland reserves will be set appropriately.
Of course, I breed to race so I have a different perspective. One of my really good friends is a pinhooker. He is in the group you mentioned that is a good breeder with a back up plan. However, he shares the same concerns as I do and is trying to explain to these new pinhookers the economics of the situation.
He has never seen so many non-horsepeople playing the commercial game. The industry is really changing........
Good post and nice discussion!
Unfortunately, there are tons of horses not bred to race (as I define breed to race). I have come across to many sellers that breed an unraced mare with fashionable bloodlines to an unproven first year stallion (who may or may not have had more than a handful of starts). I do not consider this breeding to race.
I was shocked just how many of these horses fill the sales catalog. Check it out for yourself. I have gone through the entire Keenland Catalog twice now (to make sure I didn't miss anything).
I wish you were right that breeders have a back up plan but I am not sure it is true.
In regard to the yearlings, I did not take the well bed yearlings because they did not fit my profile. I know it costs just as much to feed and train a horse I like and want as it does the one I don't!! *wink*
I have found in my neck of the woods a lot of new breeders who have entered the industry as pinhookers not knowing the ins and out of the game or even being true horsemen.
You are right that true breeders (whether commercial or not) will have a back up plan. I just see a lot of people who jumped into the game when the market was hot and now they do not know how to make adjustments. Consignors tell them to hang on to the horse and sell it as a 2 year old but I do not think these newbies understand just how much it costs to get a horse through a 2 year old sale. *sigh*
I guess we will see how it all plays out. I hope the Keenland reserves will be set appropriately.
Of course, I breed to race so I have a different perspective. One of my really good friends is a pinhooker. He is in the group you mentioned that is a good breeder with a back up plan. However, he shares the same concerns as I do and is trying to explain to these new pinhookers the economics of the situation.
He has never seen so many non-horsepeople playing the commercial game. The industry is really changing........