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 Post subject: Keeneland Spin
PostPosted: Tue Sep 29, 2009 12:05 pm 
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I sure wish there were some honest to goodness real reporting going on in this business. Sure, Keeneland says that the median for this year's Sept sale was down 40.5%. But the rest of the story is that is compared to LAST YEAR when the sale cratered as well. Comparing the median figures of 2009 against 2007 the sale was down 52%.


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 29, 2009 12:12 pm 
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It is not going to improve any time soon, either. It is a breed to race market right now, in my opinion.

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 29, 2009 12:31 pm 
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If you have a bit of resources stashed and the time, it's the perfect market to rebound some yearlings on.

I bought 6 yearling fillies for a total of 9k. I'll see if any have talent and the ones that don't, I'll put in foal at 3, and by then, I imagine the economy to be in a bit better position, and will try to sell them as broodmares.

Each one has a significant family and good page. At this point, it's the most I can ask for.

November is going to be very interesting to me. I'm anxiously awaiting the books to come out. Should be any day now.


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 29, 2009 1:52 pm 
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ASB - what is your plan for November? Are you thinking that you are going to go after mares or weanlings?

I've been wondering about that sale myself. My sense is that the well conformed weaners will bring okay prices, but that mares, some with good potential, in foal to decent studs will be let go for well below the stud fee. My sense is that things have gotten worse for some as 2009 has worn on and as a result, some mares will be dumped.


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 Post subject: Re: Keeneland Spin
PostPosted: Tue Sep 29, 2009 3:01 pm 
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aurora wrote:
I sure wish there were some honest to goodness real reporting going on in this business. Sure, Keeneland says that the median for this year's Sept sale was down 40.5%. But the rest of the story is that is compared to LAST YEAR when the sale cratered as well. Comparing the median figures of 2009 against 2007 the sale was down 52%.


In defense of the TB media--and I don't say that often--they have always reported sales results in comparison to the year before. It may be short-sighted but that's the model they use.

I haven't read any articles that have attempted to put a positive spin on that sale. TDN had an article comparing the first week of this year's KeeSep with the same in 2007 a few days ago. I think it might have been written by Bill Oppenheim?


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Sep 29, 2009 3:03 pm 
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ASB wrote:
If you have a bit of resources stashed and the time, it's the perfect market to rebound some yearlings on.

I bought 6 yearling fillies for a total of 9k. I'll see if any have talent and the ones that don't, I'll put in foal at 3, and by then, I imagine the economy to be in a bit better position, and will try to sell them as broodmares.

Each one has a significant family and good page. At this point, it's the most I can ask for.

November is going to be very interesting to me. I'm anxiously awaiting the books to come out. Should be any day now.


I was very tempted to do the same. But we were selling a couple and there was some significant breath-holding until that was successfully completed. :wink:

If you don't mind my asking, what are your new fillies' hip numbers?


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Sep 29, 2009 7:02 pm 
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madelyn wrote:
It is not going to improve any time soon, either. It is a breed to race market right now, in my opinion.


1000% right it is ....and the people who dont think so are in for a rude reality check.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Sep 29, 2009 7:03 pm 
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ASB wrote:
If you have a bit of resources stashed and the time, it's the perfect market to rebound some yearlings on.

I bought 6 yearling fillies for a total of 9k. I'll see if any have talent and the ones that don't, I'll put in foal at 3, and by then, I imagine the economy to be in a bit better position, and will try to sell them as broodmares.

Each one has a significant family and good page. At this point, it's the most I can ask for.

November is going to be very interesting to me. I'm anxiously awaiting the books to come out. Should be any day now.


yours is the smart biz plan. :wink:

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2009 9:56 pm 
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I've been saying for some time that the stud fees are way out of line. If you look at the median foal earnings for the top 70 sires, they will range from $20-35K, which just doesn't reconcile with current stud fees.

The stud farms persuaded the market breeders to pay the high stud fees because they could pass them through to the dumb buyers at the sales, but not anymore. Many of the market breeders will be broke after this. In fact, I predict that the foal crop for 2011 will be down to perhaps 27K.

And it won't get any easier for the breeders who took their yearlings home, particularly in view of a failing Kentucky racing program. And they will have to run in open company particularly in states with a strong breeders program.

I started out the year with 5 homebred maidens including 2 2yo's and have won 2 MSW and 2 Allowance races for earnings of about $125K thus far. But it was only done with some very careful training and race selection. Not a huge sum of money in the context of recent yearling sales prices.

I think that it's time for the breeders to try eating some of their own cooking.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 01, 2009 6:10 am 
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RandomThoughts wrote:
I've been saying for some time that the stud fees are way out of line. If you look at the median foal earnings for the top 70 sires, they will range from $20-35K, which just doesn't reconcile with current stud fees.

The stud farms persuaded the market breeders to pay the high stud fees because they could pass them through to the dumb buyers at the sales, but not anymore. Many of the market breeders will be broke after this. In fact, I predict that the foal crop for 2011 will be down to perhaps 27K.

And it won't get any easier for the breeders who took their yearlings home, particularly in view of a failing Kentucky racing program. And they will have to run in open company particularly in states with a strong breeders program.

I started out the year with 5 homebred maidens including 2 2yo's and have won 2 MSW and 2 Allowance races for earnings of about $125K thus far. But it was only done with some very careful training and race selection. Not a huge sum of money in the context of recent yearling sales prices.

I think that it's time for the breeders to try eating some of their own cooking.


Good for you. I know how difficult that is at almost any track and any level.

I totally agree with your last sentence too. Its what some of us were saying in the thread that got locked down. Obviously there will still be buyers and sellers in the New World Order, but if the breeders don't want to or can't put money in the horse, they should ask themselves what incentive there is for the market to absorb him. That may mean taking a hard look at what we are breeding and decision making.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Oct 01, 2009 7:06 am 
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ASB wrote:
I bought 6 yearling fillies for a total of 9k. I'll see if any have talent and the ones that don't, I'll put in foal at 3, and by then, I imagine the economy to be in a bit better position, and will try to sell them as broodmares.


If they don't have talent, why breed them? Isn't indiscriminate breeding a big part of what got the market to the sorry state it's in now?


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Oct 01, 2009 7:31 am 
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Lisann - in my experience, it is pretty difficult to predict whether what you breed will actually have the talent its parents might have had, even when you breed a mare with great family to a sire of winners. I have done something like what ASB just did - a few years ago at Fasig Tipton and Keeneland - go to the sale, pick out some athletic looking yearlings for pennies on the dollar, and see what you have got. I wish ASB the kind of luck I had - one of my $1K fillies earned $97K.. a $2K filly went on to become a minor stakes winner in Europe.. etc. I think I bought five and four "run and won."

My experiment wasn't as complete as ASB's - I got them home, did some work with them, and sold them off the farm for quite decent profits, and I had some colts in the mix. I think ASB hopes to get some broodmares.

I am not anywhere near "qualified" enough to comment on whatever problems there are in the TB breeding industry, but I find myself wishing, quite fervently, that more money would be directed toward racing horses and less toward stud fees, corrective surgeries on babies, sales prepping, and making yearlings look like three year olds. It seems like some folks have lost sight of the fact that if race horses can't find owners to finance them, racing can die and there will be no market at all for any yearlings.

The recent sale WAS pretty brutal - but there have been, in EVERY sale I've ever been to since I started watching/participating in this business in 2002, some pretty good horses in the $1K to 4K range whose stud fees were $10K+. This sale just had MORE of them, that's all.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Oct 01, 2009 8:09 am 
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madelyn wrote:
... I find myself wishing, quite fervently, that more money would be directed toward racing horses and less toward stud fees, corrective surgeries on babies, sales prepping, and making yearlings look like three year olds.

Well said madelyn. The market abhors a vacuum and simply answers demand. The over breeding, surgeries and excessive sales prepping was an answer to market demands. Now, there is no demand, so the sucking sound we all hear is the vacuum. :?


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Oct 01, 2009 8:18 am 
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What if you did your research as a breed to race only to sell in the regional market next year? My strong point is breed to race, that's what I did most of my career, this is my first foray into breeding and selling my own, but regionally ( I've stated in the past, I'm not out for the home run, just to produce a good racehorse and make a little bit of money out of it ).

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Oct 01, 2009 8:57 am 
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You also have to fault some of these state bred incentive programs for the over production of modestly bred horses.

Some people's business plan has been to breed a bunch of cheap horses in a state with a lucrative program, give them away if need be, and sit back and hope to collect breeders awards without any training expenses.

Of course that plan hasn't worked for most people because the cheap horses they bred usually don't have enough ability to earn them any appreciable breeders awards.


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