Pedigree Query

Joltman wrote:The assessment of the sale is surprisingly upbeat per the BH article:

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/ ... aging-note

A couple of qs about this rosie assessment -

- The Young dispersal - pumped an extraordinary number of top end horses into the sale. If the dispersal had not taken place I wonder what those numbers would have looked like.

"Not sold" count dropped by 20%. Is that based on the RNA count or does it include the number withdrawn? The last day probably ended in half an hour since so many were withdrawn.

jm

The BloodHorse has a way of saying that everything is rosie in the industry with no regard to whether or not that's actually true.

Although it was good that the RNA rate was down, what that basically meant was that sellers were letting their horses go for what they would bring regardless of how much money they made in the process. "Not Sold" is only those that go through the ring; it does not count those that are withdrawn.

The article you cited answered your other question: the gross for the sale was $159,727,800. The Overbrook dispersal accounted for $31,760,000 of that. Without the Overbrook horses, the gross would have been down 31% from 2008 rather than 13.9%.

Another interesting fact: last year's Nov. sale was held after the market had already crashed. This year's gross is down 56% from the gross in 2007, which is a more accurate accounting of what the TB market has done since the downturn.

Thanks for telling it like it really is LB - it is always interesting to "know" it isn't as it seems when you read the numbers especially when you see the outs (and knowing I myself pulled three out this year in the yearling sales and know that so did alot of folks). I was there on the first Monday and by the time Azeri went through the ring there were alot of "outs". You can screw with numbers and figures and make things look like you want them to look, reality is a whole different picture.

Pretty filly

The new baby meeting one of the mean mares whatever the outlook for sales and racing in general, my experience at Keeneland was first rate, friendly, fun, etc, I loved it, and cant wait to go back and get another baby!!

AAAuuhhh Baby Girl made it home!!! What's her barn name???

The numbers tell one story, but being there will tell a different story. The cheap horses went.. well CHEAP. The horses with the good x ray, scope, conformation were doing well (not 6 figs well, but well) and the junk.. sold for nothing. Especially the last 3 days we saw this ALL DAY LONG. No one was sneaking anything past a buyer that did their homework. They got the best deals because they were able to do the shopping around and not just settle for something in their budget.

I Can't Wait for January.

I know someone who got a really nice stakes producer from a great family for like 2k on the last day. I assumed she looked anything but great until I saw her. Made me wish I would have been there myself!

walaa - Adorable picture! She looks like a real sweety, congrats again and look forward to following her as a star race filly

Walaa good for you for putting positive light on a industry i love. Baby is so so cute.. i love it when the kids meet the mean mares lol and they are like "oh my god be nice to me, i'm a kid!!!!"

tee hee

JYS wrote:I know someone who got a really nice stakes producer from a great family for like 2k on the last day. I assumed she looked anything but great until I saw her. Made me wish I would have been there myself!

Anyone who breeds to race rather than to sell could have had their pick of inexpensive attractive broodmares pretty much throughout the entire sale.

Someone once said, "There are lies, there are damned lies, and then there are statistics!" Numbers can be tumbled and spun. There are always things like the reduced number of "buybacks" - when the reality of that (fewer reserves) can be closer to selling the horse at any price just to avoid any more boarding costs, plus the possibility of further depreciation in value down the road, depending on the market. If the analyst picks the ONE number that is up, and spins that, and doesn't mention all of the other numbers that are down, that is not a true analysis, that is just advertising. Remember the old oxymoron, "truth in advertising?"

I sold an open mare recently and a pal asked if I did okay. I replied that I sold the mare for four times the cost of holding her until breeding season so I thought I did QUITE well. I sold her privately, off equinenow.com, and had no cost of sales. Plus, the buyer paid me $150 cash to deliver her and after renting the truck & trailer and paying for diesel I had $50 left from the $150. Did I get what she was worth? I think I got what she was worth the day I sold her.

News is that Kee Jan entries are down 25%, so all those folks who figured they wouldn't get what they wanted just decided to stay home and warm. But if you HAVE to unload a horse, it will be even more brutal I suspect.

jm

Great!! Just joking, I know that isnt a good thing, but maybe I can get another baby The plan was for 2 at Keeneland, but 1 was the way it worked out, pickin's were slim for the babies on Sunday, a really nice one with no x-rays, had to pay yourself if you wanted them, I guess, prognosis good with surgery, etc Too bad I didnt grow up in the early 20's, when x-rays didnt exist for sales horses you used your eye and hoped for the best!! Well, hopefully there will be some more "yearlings" to be gotten in 2 months, cant wait for the catalog!!

Overall, do you think the weanlings did the best? (Obviously throwing out Overbrook's dispersal).

They probably did, they usually do.

winds

sorry, 1 or 2 more pics , then I wont clog up this sales thread with baby pics Turned her out first time with young mare, best bet, no problems, I'm so proud of my Bebe, my unraced Storm Cat granddaughter, yet the only horse on the property that turns out to be a babysitter

one more , as I said then no more baby pics, couldnt help it though