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PostPosted: Wed Mar 03, 2010 7:31 am 
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Weanling

Joined: Thu Mar 19, 2009 7:40 am
Posts: 31
Location: Chicago, IL
LB wrote:
The sale looks very solid to me.

Thanks to a 2.3M Distorted Humor colt (to Stonestreet) and several dozen other strong prices, both the average and median are currently higher than last year's.

Nice spending by Japanese buyers too.


Can you explain the high numbers of outs to me? I noticed many were horses with pretty fancy pedigrees. How much is related to:
1) The presence of suitable purchasers
2) Interest or lack of in the horse in the barn area
3) post work injury/vet failures
4) actual momentum of the sale

There were some really nice horses that were outs and I'm just trying to get a feel for it.

Do the outs sell privately later on, or would they be pointed to another sale?


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 03, 2010 7:35 am 
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Allowance Winner

Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 7:08 am
Posts: 412
Location: KY
Hi Susan - You have hit on a sales strategy a bit more common at the 2 year old sales than eslewhere - set the reserve at the price you want for the horse. Many horses are bought "at the barn" after going through the ring as RNA's. Rarely can you sell a horse at the barn for more than what it RNA'ed for (it happens but not often), in fact more of the "at the barn" sales are for a tick less than the RNA price.

Sales company are beginning to report "at the barn" sales in their sales results. Fasig puts a "PS" (private sale) after the price to indicate the transaction occurred after the horse went through the ring. Keeneland updates its online results within 30 days of the sale to reflect purchases made "at the barn".

As far as discerning real sales from buy backs, run ups from legitimate RNA's, there is no short course available. Experience, knowing the players and their histories, and actually being there and feeling/watching the bidding are the ways to tell what is going on. People think agents are worthwhile for their ability to select good athletes - I would argue that equally important is their ability to "clock" the competition, their knowledge of the various players, who they trust and who they do not, etc. There are so many intangibles to this game that an outsider is truly at a great disadvantage.

if you are trying to learn more, go to as many sales as you can, shadow as many people as you can. Run cards for a consignor and learn who the players are and their likes, dislikes, tendencies, purchasing ranges, etc. Sit with experienced people as they bid. Inspect horses with experienced people. Read the results and compare results with your own notes in the catalog. There is no substitute for being there.

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A difference of opinion is what makes horse racing and missionaries.

Will Rogers


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 03, 2010 7:45 am 
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Allowance Winner

Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 7:08 am
Posts: 412
Location: KY
When you have a horse in a sale, you scratch a horse ("outs") because of a lack of interest at the barn (little or no vet work), because of health issues (post breeze radiograph shows chip/fracture or just a sick horse), because you believe you can sell the horse better elsewhere, or because you own the mare/dam and you do not want a poor sale in her produce history. Or possibly because you think you can race it more successfully than you can sell it.

There are other venues and it is more important to be a star on an average day than average on a star day. The Calder outs will show up at the Fasig Timonium Sale, at June OBS, will be sold privately or will be raced (possibly with the intent of selling). Every horse & situation is different, and the finances of the seller are a big part of how the horse is marketed.

_________________
A difference of opinion is what makes horse racing and missionaries.

Will Rogers


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 03, 2010 1:49 pm 
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Allowance Winner

Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 7:08 am
Posts: 412
Location: KY
Just to update the Calder Sales, I have spoken with a number of folks that were there as buyers & sellers - none were optimistic in their reports about the sale. Only 40 horses were early scratches/outs, that means there were 52 late scratches/outs - horses whose sellers determined there was not enough interest to run them through the ring. As with every sale, some reported sales were not actual sales, in this case a few of the higher priced "sales" among them. Think what it would have been like without Ferguson/Darley....or just wait and watch the OBS March Sale.

The silver lining? There has never been a better time to buy racehorses!

_________________
A difference of opinion is what makes horse racing and missionaries.

Will Rogers


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 03, 2010 5:40 pm 
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Newborn

Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 9:47 am
Posts: 1
bdw0617 wrote:
da hossman wrote:
If I am not mistaken this horse was bought by Zito for Whitehorse (Rbt Lapenta) so it follows their program. Buy em as yearlings, either sell em as 2 yo's for a lot of money or race em. Da Tara, etc followed same program.
i think war pass, in fact i'm quite sure war pass rna'ed for like 1 million


War Pass was entered in the FT Calder sale but they pulled him out because of an ankle chip. Scanlon was sure the colt would have brought big money because he was very good looking and was the fastest/classiest of his two year olds.

The younger half brother (by Monarchos) was the one that they entered in the FT Calder sale and then rna'd at 1.5 million. I don't think they intended to sell him at all though.


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