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PostPosted: Thu Mar 25, 2010 11:22 pm 
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Few horses sold. Fewer yet to trainers.

People are learning many horses in 2yo sales are used up before they ever get a gate card.


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 26, 2010 5:51 am 
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tbrace wrote:
Few horses sold. Fewer yet to trainers.

People are learning many horses in 2yo sales are used up before they ever get a gate card.


I was there and the real problem was the quality the pinhookers brought to the table. It used to be that they would buy nice horses to flip and you saw prospects like Officer not only go fast but look great in their preview. Now they are buying cheap horses ($20-30,000) and making them go fast for a furlong but their legs are scrambling like little eggbeaters. The world is learning that any horse pushed hard enough can go fast for a furlong but will fall apart right afterwards and those 10 second previews are becoming pretty meaningless if the horse that just did it has maiden eight written all over it otherwise.

This March sale looked a lot like a May sale with some bad pages and cheap prospects and the buyers knew it.


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 26, 2010 7:03 am 
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Sysonby is right, as usual. The two year old sales are an extremely good way to buy racehorses, as been proven over and over again. But buyers are very smart, and are looking for that horse that has 2 turns written on him. None are looking for a horse that looks like it will be gasping after 5/8. Time is only a very small part of buying at these sales.


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 26, 2010 11:01 am 
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your data sample is probably not large enough yet to signal the end of 10 second furlongs at 2 YO in Traning sales

griff

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 26, 2010 1:14 pm 
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I haven't done any research, but from personal experience, almost EVERY racehorse I have worked with that has gone through a 2-year-old sale has been fast and talented...and had issues with knees and/or tendons.
Only one that hasn't is my gelding, who sold at an OBS June sale in 2001, and he ran 77 times.


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 Post subject: 2yo
PostPosted: Fri Mar 26, 2010 2:17 pm 
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Cree,
You are correct. The ones that make to preview can go fast for 220 yards.

It is all those that don't make it to preview that are part of the concern.

Also, by percentage, 2yo sales do not produce a high rate of runners.

Notice that the National Two Year Old in Training Sales Association only gives percentages that run the other way: that is, 50% of G1 races won by, etc.

That only means that a few good two year olds emerge from the sales, and that those few at the top are very good.

It does not mean that lots of two year old sale horses win races.


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 Post subject: Re: 2yo
PostPosted: Fri Mar 26, 2010 3:45 pm 
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tbrace wrote:
Cree,
You are correct. The ones that make to preview can go fast for 220 yards.

It is all those that don't make it to preview that are part of the concern.

Also, by percentage, 2yo sales do not produce a high rate of runners.

Notice that the National Two Year Old in Training Sales Association only gives percentages that run the other way: that is, 50% of G1 races won by, etc.

That only means that a few good two year olds emerge from the sales, and that those few at the top are very good.

It does not mean that lots of two year old sale horses win races.


Dr. Larry Bramlage's comments on behalf of The Jockey Club's Thoroughbred Safety Committee regarding soundness issues -

Dr. Larry Bramlage: Thanks, Stuart. In light of recent events in Thoroughbred racing, charges concerning soundness have been leveled by supporters and detractors of the sport. The Thoroughbred Safety Committee felt these charges had to be examined where possible and the facts established. Statements have been made in the popular press, read, re-quoted and in some instances misquoted to the point that they began to be regarded as fact.

We believe that the charges must be addressed based upon data not opinion. Therefore, for the information that we examined our conclusions are rooted in the pragmatic "the data shows" rather than the dubious "we believe."

Charge number one: The training and racing of 2-year-old Thoroughbreds is predisposing these horses to accelerated rates of injury and prematurely shortened careers.

This charge is leveled by some people in and out of the horse industry, especially people outside of racing. It is a very popular theme with animal welfare organizations that are ill informed on the topic of racing and the horse; it is also parroted frequently in the popular press.

To examine these data The Jockey Club Information Systems extracted one-year windows at five-year intervals, using the years 1975 through 2000 as data sets. Horses were divided into the categories "raced as two-year-olds" and "raced, but not as two-year-olds." The data shows a definitive answer to this charge.

The first category of data examined was average starts per starter lifetime. The data shows that horses that raced as 2-year-olds raced many more times in their lifetime in each of the years examined when compared to horses that did not race until after their 2-year-old season. Some of these starts were made in the 2-year-old year for the horses that raced at 2, but the difference was more marked than the 2-year-old year alone would account for.

Average lifetime earnings per starter for horses that raced as 2-year-olds are almost twice the amount earned by horses that did not race as 2-year-olds.

Career average earnings per start for horses that raced as 2-year-olds exceeded average earnings per start for horses that did not race as 2-year-olds in every one of the years from 1975 to 2000 examined.

Lastly, the percent stakes winners in horses that raced as 2-year-olds is nearly three times higher than in horses that did not race until their 3-year-old year or later.

This data is definitive. It shows that horses that began racing as 2-year-olds are much more successful, have much longer careers, and, by extrapolation, show less predisposition to injury than horses that did not begin racing until their 3-year-old year. It is absolute on all the data sets that the training and racing of 2-year-old Thoroughbreds has no ill effect on the horses' race-career longevity or quality. In fact, the data would indicate that the ability to make at least one start as a 2-year-old has a very strong positive affect on the longevity and success of a racehorse. This strong positive effect on the quality and quantity of performance would make it impossible to argue that these horses that race as 2-year-olds are compromised.

These data strongly support the physiologic premise that it is easier for a horse to adapt to training when training begins at the end of skeletal growth. Initiation of training at the end of growth takes advantage of the established blood supply and cell populations that are then converted from growth to the adaptation to training. It is much more difficult for a horse to adapt to training after the musculoskeletal system is allowed to atrophy at the end of growth because the bone formation support system that is still present in the adolescent horse must be re-created in the skeletally mature horse that initiates training.

Charge number two: The Thoroughbred industry is raising horses only to sell, not to race. This is weakening the breed to the point they are unable to race.

This accusation is leveled at breeders for choosing matings poorly, at commercial horse operations for raising what some call "hot house" horses and not athletes, at pinhookers for abusing the 2-year-old in training concept and at veterinarians for performing surgery to correct angular limb deformities and remove fragments from juvenile joints.

The data examined was sampled again in one-year windows at five-year intervals over the last 25 years. The data shows that preparation for sales did not compromise the horse's ability to race when compared to the breed average. Over the 25-year period the breed average to reach the races was approximately 70% in each year examined, the probability to race for horses entered in yearling sales was approximately 80%, and for horses in 2-year-old sales the probability of racing rose to the upper 80% range. In no instance did the preparation for sale drop a group of horses below the average for the breed, or therefore, below the horses not prepared for sale. Some horses in the breed average are not intended for racing, but the data shows that a very high percentage of sale horses reach their intended purposes and there is no indication of harm for these horses.

xxx

Have you done a different study?

Or is it a case, as mentioned in the first paragraph, where
"Statements have been made in the popular press, read, re-quoted and in some instances misquoted to the point that they began to be regarded as fact."


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 Post subject: Re: 2yo
PostPosted: Fri Mar 26, 2010 7:33 pm 
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tbrace wrote:

That only means that a few good two year olds emerge from the sales, and that those few at the top are very good.

It does not mean that lots of two year old sale horses win races.


I'm not sure where you're getting your data from but it has been shown conclusively that two year old sales produce both a higher percentage of winners and a higher percentage of top runners than any other kind of sale.


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 26, 2010 8:23 pm 
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OBS February, the earliest 2yo sale on the schedule each year, produced 79% winners and 13.4% stakes winners per a Blood-Horse Market Watch analysis of race records of horses sold at this sale from 2001-2005.


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 Post subject: r
PostPosted: Sat Mar 27, 2010 10:17 am 
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I stand corrected - sort of.

I am talking about the % of horses that enter training for two year old sales. Most have to drop out before the sale, thus lowering the percentage considerably.

And, Dr. Bramleges' numbers are for horses that race at two, not for two year old sale horses.


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 Post subject: Re: r
PostPosted: Sat Mar 27, 2010 11:04 am 
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tbrace wrote:
I stand corrected - sort of.

I am talking about the % of horses that enter training for two year old sales. Most have to drop out before the sale, thus lowering the percentage considerably.

And, Dr. Bramleges' numbers are for horses that race at two, not for two year old sale horses.


No. Dr. Bramlage first talks about horses racing at two but then towards the end he talks about horses entered in 2yo sales when he says the percentage of runners produced by 2yo sales is in the high 80% range.

Do you have some sort of data regarding horses that enter training for two year-old sales that shows "Most have to drop out before the sale"?

It's pretty easy to look up yearling purchases by major pinhookers, and "most" of them do later go through a 2yo sale. If "most" horses trained for 2yo sales drop out before the sale I don't know where those supposed horses are coming from unless it's someone's imagination.

For example look at Hartley DeRenzo's eight yearling purchases at the 2008 Keeneland September Sale. Six went through 2yo sales. The two who didn't were not "broken down" though as they both have official works this year and seem to be pointing for a racing career. These two could have had an issue that kept them out of 2yo sales or they could have been sold privately before being entered in 2yo sales or they could have originally been purchased for clients not interested in pinhooking them. Whatever the case they're still liable to become runners.

And your claim that "most" horses pointed for 2yo sales drop out before ever even being entered in 2yo sales seems to be quite dubious.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 28, 2010 11:17 am 
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The percentages are bad for horses in two year old sales.

They are also bad for yearlings. Fact is, percentages are bad for all sales horses. But that's the game. We are buying hope. The odds are improved by buying a two year old simply because you are buying the horses closer to racing. That's it. You've weeded out the multitudes of yearlings and 2yo that have already fallen by the wayside, need more time, had some injury or setback, or won't ever become racing horses.

I am both a buyer and seller of 2YO horses. Here's an important caveat: KNOW FROM WHOM YOU BUY.


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 Post subject: sales
PostPosted: Sat Apr 03, 2010 11:32 am 
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Dray,

I think you are exactly right. I bought a couple of horses from those guys from Utah, and they were used up as soon as they came down off the sale.

I hear others have had similar experiences - so, like working with trainers, it depends on who you work with.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 03, 2010 12:34 pm 
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I could tell you stories myself tbrace. I both buy and sell at the 2year-old sales, and race any horses that don't sell. Looking back, I ended up selling my best horses, including A SHIN FORWARD, this years top NY Bred earner (he races in Japan). Thought it was odd that a NY bred went overseas like that, show you what I know :wink: Also sold DIPLOMAT LADY, and a few other Graded Stakes winners. You have to be willing to buy, sell, and race without too much emotional connection (easier said than done). Bittersweet.


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