tbrace wrote:Cree,
You are correct. The ones that make to preview can go fast for 220 yards.
It is all those that don't make it to preview that are part of the concern.
Also, by percentage, 2yo sales do not produce a high rate of runners.
Notice that the National Two Year Old in Training Sales Association only gives percentages that run the other way: that is, 50% of G1 races won by, etc.
That only means that a few good two year olds emerge from the sales, and that those few at the top are very good.
It does not mean that lots of two year old sale horses win races.
Dr. Larry Bramlage's comments on behalf of The Jockey Club's Thoroughbred Safety Committee regarding soundness issues -
Dr. Larry Bramlage: Thanks, Stuart. In light of recent events in Thoroughbred racing, charges concerning soundness have been leveled by supporters and detractors of the sport. The Thoroughbred Safety Committee felt these charges had to be examined where possible and the facts established. Statements have been made in the popular press, read, re-quoted and in some instances misquoted to the point that they began to be regarded as fact.
We believe that the charges must be addressed based upon data not opinion. Therefore, for the information that we examined our conclusions are rooted in the pragmatic "the data shows" rather than the dubious "we believe."
Charge number one: The training and racing of 2-year-old Thoroughbreds is predisposing these horses to accelerated rates of injury and prematurely shortened careers.
This charge is leveled by some people in and out of the horse industry, especially people outside of racing. It is a very popular theme with animal welfare organizations that are ill informed on the topic of racing and the horse; it is also parroted frequently in the popular press.
To examine these data The Jockey Club Information Systems extracted one-year windows at five-year intervals, using the years 1975 through 2000 as data sets. Horses were divided into the categories "raced as two-year-olds" and "raced, but not as two-year-olds." The data shows a definitive answer to this charge.
The first category of data examined was average starts per starter lifetime. The data shows that horses that raced as 2-year-olds raced many more times in their lifetime in each of the years examined when compared to horses that did not race until after their 2-year-old season. Some of these starts were made in the 2-year-old year for the horses that raced at 2, but the difference was more marked than the 2-year-old year alone would account for.
Average lifetime earnings per starter for horses that raced as 2-year-olds are almost twice the amount earned by horses that did not race as 2-year-olds.
Career average earnings per start for horses that raced as 2-year-olds exceeded average earnings per start for horses that did not race as 2-year-olds in every one of the years from 1975 to 2000 examined.
Lastly, the percent stakes winners in horses that raced as 2-year-olds is nearly three times higher than in horses that did not race until their 3-year-old year or later.
This data is definitive. It shows that horses that began racing as 2-year-olds are much more successful, have much longer careers, and, by extrapolation, show less predisposition to injury than horses that did not begin racing until their 3-year-old year. It is absolute on all the data sets that the training and racing of 2-year-old Thoroughbreds has no ill effect on the horses' race-career longevity or quality. In fact, the data would indicate that the ability to make at least one start as a 2-year-old has a very strong positive affect on the longevity and success of a racehorse. This strong positive effect on the quality and quantity of performance would make it impossible to argue that these horses that race as 2-year-olds are compromised.
These data strongly support the physiologic premise that it is easier for a horse to adapt to training when training begins at the end of skeletal growth. Initiation of training at the end of growth takes advantage of the established blood supply and cell populations that are then converted from growth to the adaptation to training. It is much more difficult for a horse to adapt to training after the musculoskeletal system is allowed to atrophy at the end of growth because the bone formation support system that is still present in the adolescent horse must be re-created in the skeletally mature horse that initiates training.
Charge number two: The Thoroughbred industry is raising horses only to sell, not to race. This is weakening the breed to the point they are unable to race.
This accusation is leveled at breeders for choosing matings poorly, at commercial horse operations for raising what some call "hot house" horses and not athletes, at pinhookers for abusing the 2-year-old in training concept and at veterinarians for performing surgery to correct angular limb deformities and remove fragments from juvenile joints.
The data examined was sampled again in one-year windows at five-year intervals over the last 25 years. The data shows that preparation for sales did not compromise the horse's ability to race when compared to the breed average. Over the 25-year period the breed average to reach the races was approximately 70% in each year examined, the probability to race for horses entered in yearling sales was approximately 80%, and
for horses in 2-year-old sales the probability of racing rose to the upper 80% range. In no instance did the preparation for sale drop a group of horses below the average for the breed, or therefore, below the horses not prepared for sale. Some horses in the breed average are not intended for racing, but the data shows that a very high percentage of sale horses reach their intended purposes and there is no indication of harm for these horses.
xxx
Have you done a different study?
Or is it a case, as mentioned in the first paragraph, where
"Statements have been made in the popular press, read, re-quoted and in some instances misquoted to the point that they began to be regarded as fact."