LB wrote:Tappiano wrote:I'm sorry but I'm a realist and it does not make sense to me that either a seller would be glad to be rid of a horse for just over what a meat buyer would pay or that someone would suddenly not want to bid because there had been little action. Either you like a horse or you do not.
The reality is that 1,000 is 1,000 more than I spent on a stud fee but I would still not let that foal go for that price. I'd just as soon find it a home and give it to someone then pay all the fees associated with sending it to the sales.
Nobody brings a horse to the sale thinking that it's going to sell for $1,000.
I second that - no one brings a horse to sale thinking it will sell for $1,000 & by the time you know that's what is happening . . . all those fees are already due - and many breeders can't afford NOT to sell. Especially this year.
Just a minor historical perspective -
Back in 2008, we had 2 yearling fillies at the Fasig Tipton Timonium (MD) sale when the stock market took its deepest plunge in history. Buyers weren't looking at yearlings - they were looking at their Blackberries, saying, "Down another 100 points." "Down another hundred"
Banks & brokerages were already in trouble; no one knew what would happen to the mortgage market. Until that moment, I hadn't realized where the buyers' money came from. Then I learned it was loans, or they cashed in some stocks, or they had to sell a horse to buy one - and NONE of that was happening, at the moment.
Back at the stalls, we saw people literally giving away nice, attractive yearlings because they had nowhere to go with them
& another crop on the way. When sellers started giving away these nice youngsters, bidding got even more sluggish - because why pay for what you can get for free, back at the stall?
Only people who could commit to getting those yearlings to the track - or at least to a 2 y.o. in training sale - could afford to keep them.
But again - most of those sellers had re-bred their mares on high fees & had a crop due to hit the ground the next spring (2009). So in spring of 2008 when stud fees were high, mare-owners committed to breeding their mares & paying stud fees they were never realistically going to get back.
Those foals were born in 2009 - and are the yearlings you see today.
NEXT year's yearlings are the ones conceived in 2009, after the market crashed, when stallion owners began to play 'let's make a deal' & mare-owners began limiting what they bred, or trying to get out from under some of the expense by selling the sound mares as riding horses.
The highest end of the market aside, there never was a realistic chance for most breeders of making a profit at this year's sales.