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 Post subject: The Saratoga Sale
PostPosted: Mon Jun 24, 2013 10:01 pm 
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So, I went back and looked at how some of my picks from previous sales went, and it's probably good that I wasn't buying any of these horses:

Keeneland September 2006
Quote:
189 Machivellian colt from the champion Argentine family of Empiric (nothing)
382 Kingmambo colt from the family of Sacahuista (very little in Europe)
10 Kingmambo filly out of a half to AP Indy (very little in Europe)
561 Pivotal colt from the family of Peintre Celebre (won 800 pounds)
250 Rainbow Quest filly from the family of Ivory Wand (unraced)
274 Storm Cat filly out of an unraced full to Kingmambo (New York ALW winner, broke down and euthed at 3)


FT Texas 2007:
Quote:
Hip 241, TX-bred colt, half to 3 SW and 1 SP, dam has 10 winners of 11 foals to race. (won a super-cheap MCL at Lincoln Fair)
Hip 22, LA bred filly from the family of Broom Dance, half to 2 useful winners of 3 other foals. (unplaced in one start in cheap claimer, never ran again)
Hip 337, Street Cry colt that is half to two stakes winners. Foaled in LA but not registered as LA-bred. 4th dam produced Lady Pitt. (unplaced, now at stud in LA)


Finally, from the 2011 Saratoga Sale:

Quote:
#40 b f Arch-Sharp Apple, by Diesis. Equibase doesn't have a registered name for her?
# 57 b f Tapit - Sweet and Careless, by Hennessy. Unraced so far.
#69 b f Not For Love - Who's Cozy, by Cozzene. Unraced so far.
#92 ch c Kitten's Joy - Caterette, by Cozzene. MSW at Belmont, running decently in ALW company.
#146 b c Indian Charlie - Kokadrie, by Coronado's Quest. Unraced so far.


OUCH!

The 3yos of 2013 do have a chance to get better, but yikes, I'm great at finding good-looking catalogue pages that don't actually pan out. So in an attempt to salvage my pride, I'm going to take a crack at the Saratoga Sale:

Same criteria as usual....looking for horses that, if they run to their pages, will win and make money. Maybe not stakes winners, but nice alw types that take nice pictures in the winner's circle.

#26 Kitten's Joy - Celestial Woods, by Forestry. Full sibling to two other winners including listed winner at Colonial, dam's only other foal of racing age is 2yo this year. Between the one good winner above and quite a lot of success with KJ foals at the betting windows I'm beginning to think you really can't go wrong with Kitten's Joy.

#60 Kitten's Joy - High Chant, by War Chant. Full to THREE winners, including Gr-3 winner Csaba and the other two are allowance-class. Did I mention I think you really can't go wrong with Kitten's Joy?

#100 Elusive Quality - Padmore, by French Deputy. Full to a listed winner and half to a Gr-2 winner in Europe. French Deputy is a bit atypical of the Deputy Minister line in that he sires more pure speed (the majority of them are fast and classy but want some ground).

#123 Midnight Lute - Skyscape, by Marquetry. Dam has 5 winners out of 7 to race, including Gr-2 stakes winner and 2 stakes placed. It's still early days for Midnight Lute but I like what I'm seeing so far, and the mare has been as solid a producer as one could want.

#147 More Than Ready - Twilight Service, by Horse Chestnut. More than Ready is a bit weird for the US market....he can sire a dirt horse and he can sire an 8 to 9f horse, but where he really shines is with turf sprinters This mare is bred to be a turf sprinter, and the best representative of this nice Phipps/Janney family is a turf miler (even though there are dirt horses and longer-runners in there too), and the dam's best foal is a turf sprinter. It's an odd one pedigree-wise and the mare's production is a bit weak compared to the other picks here BUT my feel is this is a type-to-type mating and should turn out pretty well.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2013 4:15 am 
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Too bad the catalogs don't come with the walking videos and pictures! I remember someone buying a regally bred Mr. Prospector mare many years ago off a blood horse ad and the poor thing looked like she belonged on fuglyblog. I would presume many of those people who fork out the big bucks for fillies with faults are doing so strictly for the residual value and the hope they might be able to breed that trait out.

Makes you wonder whether breed the best to the best needs a disclaimer .... because if the best 15 hand squarely built stallion is bred to the best 16.3 long bodied mare around you might not be happy with the results.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2013 5:07 am 
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Yeah, and the catalogue doesn't tell you how they scope, or whether they have any desire to run.

I did find out more about the Arch-Sharp Apple filly. Her name is Pomology and she is owned by Princess Haya of Jordan, and broke her maiden in her first start at Windsor on the 16th of this month. It was a class 5 race, meaning she is rated between 56 to 75 on their handicap scale. I'd put it about the level of a $20k MCL race.

American Indian (the Indian Charlie) was supposed to make his debut on the 8th of June but scratched.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2013 7:49 am 
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Quote:
The 3yos of 2013 do have a chance to get better, but yikes, I'm great at finding good-looking catalogue pages that don't actually pan out.



For what it's worth. my fantasy stable game, with 7 year olds to 2 year olds, is going well, but my WORST class by far is 3YOs of 2013. Only 39% in the money, 11% win percentage, and average earnings per starter less than $24K :oops: needless to say, no Derby or Oaks contenders.
I also "spent" a million on the UBS/Silvery Swan filly, who has yet to start. Knew it was a risk.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Aug 06, 2013 4:55 pm 
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Did Hip #90 by Munnings look fat to anybody else? Sure reminded me of his sire, but I couldn't stop looking at his bulk.

Also what was with the Curlin filly on day one that went for something like $40,000? One just went for $55,000 and I was surprised. The others run for so much. Did they refuse to let themselves be scoped? I've heard of that happening and value tends to drop because of the unknown of it all. The Curlin filly didn't even have a reserve of $40,000 so they wanted to let her go even if she didn't bring much, perhaps knowing it was going to happen. Hmm.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Aug 06, 2013 6:07 pm 
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Heidi, I thought the Munnings colt was one of the best looking horses to enter the ring. I have three suckings by Munnings and two of them are big-assed, short backed types who will fill out much like tonight's yearling. Munnings is a gorgeous animal and people are already talking about him being the leading freshman sire next year.


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 06, 2013 7:31 pm 
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Barcaldine wrote:
Heidi, I thought the Munnings colt was one of the best looking horses to enter the ring. I have three suckings by Munnings and two of them are big-assed, short backed types who will fill out much like tonight's yearling. Munnings is a gorgeous animal and people are already talking about him being the leading freshman sire next year.


Oh interesting. Are they chestnuts as well? Good luck with them, and keep us up to date on how they do. We're suckers for that stuff around here. ;)

Munnings pulled nearly $2mil as a 2yo at auction so I'm sure his babies will develop quite nicely since they seem to look like him as far as I can tell. Saying he's being talked about as the leading freshman sire for 2014 may be a bit of wishful thinking, but I can't blame you there. There's some stiff competition. The problem is if he's not leading freshman sire, he might run into even more opposition for second crop sire since several of them blossomed then and their get might too. Hope he doesn't get lost in the crowd. The G1 placings he got at 2 indicate reason for optimism.

Other notable 2011 freshman class stallions include: Afleet Express, Blame, Discreetly Mine, Eskendereya, Lookin At Lucky, Majesticperfection, Midshipman, Quality Road, Super Saver, Tale of Ekati, and Warrior's Reward.

Munnings will probably end up with nice offspring, but he's not currently the most commercial by any means. Then again, Flower Alley wasn't either and look what happened. Horses like Blame and Quality Road are pulling in the dough at yearling sales currently. We'll know more in September.

Some yearlings get a bit fat and when they go into training the weight's gotta come off. Seems to happen a lot. Hip #90 was striking, but he's been into the feed bin a bit. He'll probably look even better when he turns that into muscle.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Aug 07, 2013 6:43 am 
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Heidilady wrote:
Also what was with the Curlin filly on day one that went for something like $40,000? One just went for $55,000 and I was surprised. The others run for so much. Did they refuse to let themselves be scoped? I've heard of that happening and value tends to drop because of the unknown of it all. The Curlin filly didn't even have a reserve of $40,000 so they wanted to let her go even if she didn't bring much, perhaps knowing it was going to happen. Hmm.


Sometimes when you take your sales xrays (one week pre-sale) you get an unfortunate surprise. That's the most likely reason for prices that low at this sale.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Aug 07, 2013 10:06 am 
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Or they have ouchy feet. If you ever have a chance to go to the sales grounds and look at yearlings pay close attention to their feet. It's fascinating what you'll see. That doesn't mean there is anything wrong with them, it just means they needed some kind of help.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Aug 07, 2013 9:00 pm 
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LB wrote:
Sometimes when you take your sales xrays (one week pre-sale) you get an unfortunate surprise. That's the most likely reason for prices that low at this sale.


I guess withdrawing and waiting for a later sale wasn't an option. :? Maybe if it is fixable, they'd rather let someone else take the financial risk.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Aug 08, 2013 7:03 am 
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Heidilady wrote:
LB wrote:
Sometimes when you take your sales xrays (one week pre-sale) you get an unfortunate surprise. That's the most likely reason for prices that low at this sale.


I guess withdrawing and waiting for a later sale wasn't an option. :? Maybe if it is fixable, they'd rather let someone else take the financial risk.


The only later yearling sale that can be gotten into at this point is FTOctober--quite a step down from Saratoga. Plus, the stuff you'd be likely to find (chip, bone spur, ocd, etc) isn't fixable--to sales-ready condition--that quickly. For someone who wants to sell, it's often easiest just to cut your losses as do so.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Aug 13, 2013 6:36 am 
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The Curlin filly that sold for $40,000 did have a significant radiographic issue. It is debatable whether the issue could have been corrected & rehabbed in time to make the late October Fasig KY Sale.

So the hard choice for the owners was "do we go to Saratoga with all the additional sales expense knowing she will sell poorly or that we may not sell her at all", or "do we try surgery, take on that additional expense, and carry her to the Fasig October Sale?"

(It costs more to sell a yearling at Saratoga than other yearling sales - travel, higher feed costs, higher labor costs as most are from out of town and housing must be provided, etc).

Throw in the fact that this filly was a foal share to make the decision even tougher. It is my understanding that the stallion side of the equation was unwilling to consider Fasig October.

When sales results look unusually low there is usually a very good reason for it.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:30 pm 
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kimberley mine wrote:
I did find out more about the Arch-Sharp Apple filly.


This filly, Pomology, won a Gr-3 contest at Deauville in France.


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