Keeneland 2YO Sale
Moderators: Roguelet, WaveMaster, madelyn
Keeneland 2YO Sale
Anybody else interested? I watched most of the works yesterday, and there are some very good looking two year olds there.
LOL Mike! Picking good 2YOs from their works is totally not my bailiwick. Which is one of the reasons I was there--I'm trying to learn how to spot a good one.
For what it's worth--and that probably isn't much--these are the ones that appealed to me: #2, #7, #25, #28, #31, #41, #50, #57, #63, #80, #96, #106, #127, #128, #129, #163, #164, #185, #189, #199, and #214.
What was interesting was that the track was slower for the first 50 horses or so. Many, many times of 10.3 and 10.4. Then they took a break and harrowed the track. When the works started up again, the times were coming in at 10.1 and 10.2. And no, the second batch didn't appear to be faster. I think the track was just tighter.
For what it's worth--and that probably isn't much--these are the ones that appealed to me: #2, #7, #25, #28, #31, #41, #50, #57, #63, #80, #96, #106, #127, #128, #129, #163, #164, #185, #189, #199, and #214.
What was interesting was that the track was slower for the first 50 horses or so. Many, many times of 10.3 and 10.4. Then they took a break and harrowed the track. When the works started up again, the times were coming in at 10.1 and 10.2. And no, the second batch didn't appear to be faster. I think the track was just tighter.
LSB -
I observed the same phenomena at the F-T Tx 2YO In Training Sale of a year ago at Lone Star: the early morning set seemed positively pedestrian as compared to those that followed. I noticed that in addition to a between sets grooming of the track that the track surface itsself was fully in the sun for the second set. Also the air was noticeablly more still and MORE HOT.
All of which convinced me to take those lower times with a grain of salt and made it clear why being there and watching how a horse did and how a horse moved were very important. I saw horses merely galloped, others worked alone and others worked in pairs. Some were well prepared "mentally" for the sale work, while others were pretty "green" to say the least in their overall antics. Saw one I liked a lot conformationally and on paper have his jockey's stirrup iron drop about half way down the last furlong and the jockey ride the rest of the way with no stirrups...that 2YO "lugged in" badly when his rider's weight/balance shifted but recovered quickly without ever losing his stride and determination. Quite professional I thought...but he didn't sell for much: was it the time only I wondered? Offspring of certain sires just could not seem to overcome market prejudices against that sire as to not producing much better than 'useful' progeny no matter their individual efforts' time. Other offspring of 'buzz' sires received very good bids despite rather 'average' times or just having been galloped, not worked. One trainer I talked to said he picked up two fillies because of their strength as potential broodmare prospects as much as for anything else - he's got a client that likes to buy a horse or two he knows is nearly track ready to train on and race as late 2YOs/early 3YOS with some upside potential if racing doesn't work out for them. Neither of these fillies was near to being a sale topper but brought low-average to average amounts.
IT clearly would be important to know everything that could affect a horse's time and way of going before you bid.
Possibally the MOST important thing is to go check out the ones you like in the barn the afternoon after their works and again brite and early the next morning.
I observed the same phenomena at the F-T Tx 2YO In Training Sale of a year ago at Lone Star: the early morning set seemed positively pedestrian as compared to those that followed. I noticed that in addition to a between sets grooming of the track that the track surface itsself was fully in the sun for the second set. Also the air was noticeablly more still and MORE HOT.
All of which convinced me to take those lower times with a grain of salt and made it clear why being there and watching how a horse did and how a horse moved were very important. I saw horses merely galloped, others worked alone and others worked in pairs. Some were well prepared "mentally" for the sale work, while others were pretty "green" to say the least in their overall antics. Saw one I liked a lot conformationally and on paper have his jockey's stirrup iron drop about half way down the last furlong and the jockey ride the rest of the way with no stirrups...that 2YO "lugged in" badly when his rider's weight/balance shifted but recovered quickly without ever losing his stride and determination. Quite professional I thought...but he didn't sell for much: was it the time only I wondered? Offspring of certain sires just could not seem to overcome market prejudices against that sire as to not producing much better than 'useful' progeny no matter their individual efforts' time. Other offspring of 'buzz' sires received very good bids despite rather 'average' times or just having been galloped, not worked. One trainer I talked to said he picked up two fillies because of their strength as potential broodmare prospects as much as for anything else - he's got a client that likes to buy a horse or two he knows is nearly track ready to train on and race as late 2YOs/early 3YOS with some upside potential if racing doesn't work out for them. Neither of these fillies was near to being a sale topper but brought low-average to average amounts.
IT clearly would be important to know everything that could affect a horse's time and way of going before you bid.
Possibally the MOST important thing is to go check out the ones you like in the barn the afternoon after their works and again brite and early the next morning.
The thing about the 2 year old sales is that some trainers/ bloodstock agents treat them like a big race and when a horse has gone the fastest for the day, that horse has "won" the race. Conversely any work over :11 is the kiss of death in the ring no matter what the horse looks like and what the pedigree is. Given how flighty and fragile two year olds can be, it's a pretty high stakes gamble to consign through these sales. We all hear about the homerun pinhooks but what about the ones that don't make it through these sales in one piece or after you've invested in the horse and the training, they go out there in :11.4 and are essentially unsaleable even if their tendons are cold and tight.
And you are quite right that you need to see how the work was accomplished. I went to one of the the Barretts March sale previews and I absolutely hated one of the horses who worked under :10. She was a short striding little thing with an eggbeater gait. Maybe she will go onto great things but to me she looked like maiden $8000 at Stockton. However, one of the Tiznows who went in :10.4, strided out like he was potential stakes material. The saletopper looked wonderful as well. Time is important but also how they move is important since they won't be racing an eighth or a quarter again any time soon.
And you are quite right that you need to see how the work was accomplished. I went to one of the the Barretts March sale previews and I absolutely hated one of the horses who worked under :10. She was a short striding little thing with an eggbeater gait. Maybe she will go onto great things but to me she looked like maiden $8000 at Stockton. However, one of the Tiznows who went in :10.4, strided out like he was potential stakes material. The saletopper looked wonderful as well. Time is important but also how they move is important since they won't be racing an eighth or a quarter again any time soon.
sysonby, a friend was telling us about a colt of their that worked an eighth in 14. His connections quickly ran over and got his work classified as a "gallop" and not a breeze. 
Although the fastest times certainly make the biggest impact in the sales ring--and produce the headlines we all read about--I think that many of the slower 2YOs end up selling pretty well back at the barns after RNAing in the auction. At least that's what I've been told is happening.
Although the fastest times certainly make the biggest impact in the sales ring--and produce the headlines we all read about--I think that many of the slower 2YOs end up selling pretty well back at the barns after RNAing in the auction. At least that's what I've been told is happening.
I think "being close" helps, obviously. If the fastest horse breezes a 10.1, then 10.2/10.3 are good enough to get top dollar. That's what I have noticed. In that case, once a horse breezes past the 10's (11.0) the price seems to drop.
Interesting how a few consignors will breeze the horse ONLY once. I think it's a good idea.
Interesting how a few consignors will breeze the horse ONLY once. I think it's a good idea.
), #66, #76, #111, #116 Well so far it looks like a bloodbath.
John Oxley paid 800K for a son of Maria's Mon. There was a 1.15M buy-back on an Unbridled's Song colt. That's pretty much it for excitement.
Many, many RNAs and by 3 pm, many of the hips that had been expected to sell well were being scratched from the sale. There is just no money at this sale.
John Oxley paid 800K for a son of Maria's Mon. There was a 1.15M buy-back on an Unbridled's Song colt. That's pretty much it for excitement.
Many, many RNAs and by 3 pm, many of the hips that had been expected to sell well were being scratched from the sale. There is just no money at this sale.
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Coquinerie
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To be honest, when I got this catalogue I didnt see any "outstanding" 2yo sale toppers. A lot of late developing hips that interested me, but I thought in general it was a little weak. Not much really stood out and grabbed my interest.
The upcoming OBS sale on the other hand has some fillies i'm loving and hopefully I can bring one or two home.
The upcoming OBS sale on the other hand has some fillies i'm loving and hopefully I can bring one or two home.