The overall results for this sale are in:
8/29/05 THRU 8/30/05
DATE SOLD AMOUNT AVERAGE Not SOLD MEDIAN
8/29/05 170 1,914,200 11,260 84 5,000
8/30/05 153 1,420,900 9,287 91 3,800
TOTALS 323 3,335,100 10,325 175 4,500
8/30/04 THRU 8/31/04
DATE SOLD AMOUNT AVERAGE NOT SOLD MEDIAN
8/30/04 134 1,904,900 14,216 55 8,000
8/31/04 136 1,455,900 10,705 42 6,100
TOTALS 270 3,360,800 12,447 97 7,000
Texas yearling sale
Moderators: Roguelet, WaveMaster, madelyn
I thought it interesting that with so many horses catalogued that the second day - overall, if you can trust averages (should use median values) to tell the tale - was stronger.
Many may already know this but I discovered today that F-T has an interesting (and I think relatively new) feature at their site. IF you go to Results and choose this (or any other sale) there is an option (in very small print) for seeing the results in Excel spreadsheet form. Click on that and then you can sort by SIRE or PRICE or PURCHASER or CONSIGNOR or SEX (and for Jorge, others tracking color: COLOR)....all of which allow for more intersting analyses than a scan by hip number does. I went in an sorted by PRICE and then looked at those which recieved bids above $15,000. NOTE: This does not allow you to capture whether or not a horse "Sold" as that information is not set out as a seperate value. It would take a bit more work than I was willing to try this evening to identify those who may have recieved very handsome bids but still did not reach their reserve.
Preliminary Observations: Not many Texas sires in that partial list of offspring selling above/recieing bids of at least $15,000, although VALID EXPECTATIONS, OPEN FORUM, LITTLEXPECTATIONS, COMMANCHERO and others had at least one offspring above that threshold. I think HADIF, and maybe one NAEVUS made it as well. I'm sure I'm leaving some Texas based stallion/sire out, maybe Seneca Jones??? He had a lot of offspring but not sure I saw any above $15,000.
Most interesting to me was that TIME BANDIT had more than one on that list. In fact if you sort by SIRE and take a look at T.B. he's got fairly good, solid results in this sale. His stud fee at the time was - I think - $1500.00 so quite a nice multiple for those mare owners/breeders to realize such decent prices.
For personal reasons I also took a look at the COMMANCHERO's that were in the sale: 19 or 18 were catalogued if I recall correctly, of those 16 were offered for sale and of those 14 were sold. OF those offered the bids ranged from $24,000 (RNA-Not Sold) to $1100 (Sold)....the average being around $7200 or so. I think the median would fall lower as I saw more below that mark than above it. Since his stud fee at the time was $2500 - I think - those that sold above $7500 would have met the 2 1/2 x stud fee test of commerciality. In actual fact only a few met that test but a number were hovering near that at their sale prices....so next I took a look at who was buying: pinhookers in large measure. What that says to me was that one or two were O/S in appearance and had decent pages, recieved good bids of $24K and $14K - while most were right below the 2 1/2 x Stud fee mark and went to pinhookers...I think there were too many Commanchero's for the marketplace, allowing pinhookers to place economical, cautious bids and bring one home to try for a homerun as 2YOs. I say that because until this Sale the Auction results for COMMANCHERO would indicate - on first blush - a lot of high side potential for pinhooking at these prices. EXCEPT that those prices reflect one in particular successfully pinhooked filly and a few other "healthy" bids for a very few Commanchero yearlings. On the track aside form his MGSW MOST FEARED he has had only had only a few and very modest winners....but then you have to realize how absolutely small his first crops were. Qualtiy of mares bred - from what I've seen wasn't outstanding either in lieu of numbers. IF sone of these 2004 foals can hit the track and win next year - OR if one of his 2004's gets a big aggressive bid as a 2YO at auction - I think his value will go up, hold steady. IF there are no wins - or wins that are few and far between and of only modest calibre - from this crop of 2YOs his stud fee will retreat - if not up front, then in terms of deals willing to be made. It will be interesting to see how Commanchero fares in the Breeding shed this year, after seeing 80+ mares in 2003.
There were at least two and I think three individuals that went for:
> $100K.....so the sale was not a complete bust for all concerned.
Many may already know this but I discovered today that F-T has an interesting (and I think relatively new) feature at their site. IF you go to Results and choose this (or any other sale) there is an option (in very small print) for seeing the results in Excel spreadsheet form. Click on that and then you can sort by SIRE or PRICE or PURCHASER or CONSIGNOR or SEX (and for Jorge, others tracking color: COLOR)....all of which allow for more intersting analyses than a scan by hip number does. I went in an sorted by PRICE and then looked at those which recieved bids above $15,000. NOTE: This does not allow you to capture whether or not a horse "Sold" as that information is not set out as a seperate value. It would take a bit more work than I was willing to try this evening to identify those who may have recieved very handsome bids but still did not reach their reserve.
Preliminary Observations: Not many Texas sires in that partial list of offspring selling above/recieing bids of at least $15,000, although VALID EXPECTATIONS, OPEN FORUM, LITTLEXPECTATIONS, COMMANCHERO and others had at least one offspring above that threshold. I think HADIF, and maybe one NAEVUS made it as well. I'm sure I'm leaving some Texas based stallion/sire out, maybe Seneca Jones??? He had a lot of offspring but not sure I saw any above $15,000.
Most interesting to me was that TIME BANDIT had more than one on that list. In fact if you sort by SIRE and take a look at T.B. he's got fairly good, solid results in this sale. His stud fee at the time was - I think - $1500.00 so quite a nice multiple for those mare owners/breeders to realize such decent prices.
For personal reasons I also took a look at the COMMANCHERO's that were in the sale: 19 or 18 were catalogued if I recall correctly, of those 16 were offered for sale and of those 14 were sold. OF those offered the bids ranged from $24,000 (RNA-Not Sold) to $1100 (Sold)....the average being around $7200 or so. I think the median would fall lower as I saw more below that mark than above it. Since his stud fee at the time was $2500 - I think - those that sold above $7500 would have met the 2 1/2 x stud fee test of commerciality. In actual fact only a few met that test but a number were hovering near that at their sale prices....so next I took a look at who was buying: pinhookers in large measure. What that says to me was that one or two were O/S in appearance and had decent pages, recieved good bids of $24K and $14K - while most were right below the 2 1/2 x Stud fee mark and went to pinhookers...I think there were too many Commanchero's for the marketplace, allowing pinhookers to place economical, cautious bids and bring one home to try for a homerun as 2YOs. I say that because until this Sale the Auction results for COMMANCHERO would indicate - on first blush - a lot of high side potential for pinhooking at these prices. EXCEPT that those prices reflect one in particular successfully pinhooked filly and a few other "healthy" bids for a very few Commanchero yearlings. On the track aside form his MGSW MOST FEARED he has had only had only a few and very modest winners....but then you have to realize how absolutely small his first crops were. Qualtiy of mares bred - from what I've seen wasn't outstanding either in lieu of numbers. IF sone of these 2004 foals can hit the track and win next year - OR if one of his 2004's gets a big aggressive bid as a 2YO at auction - I think his value will go up, hold steady. IF there are no wins - or wins that are few and far between and of only modest calibre - from this crop of 2YOs his stud fee will retreat - if not up front, then in terms of deals willing to be made. It will be interesting to see how Commanchero fares in the Breeding shed this year, after seeing 80+ mares in 2003.
There were at least two and I think three individuals that went for:
> $100K.....so the sale was not a complete bust for all concerned.
Yes, you're correct. Three individuals did sell for over the $100,000 mark. Interestingly (and not a good omen for Texas stallions), the sires of those individuals are three Kentucky stallions -- two of whom do not even have runners yet: Lemon Drop Kid, Orientate and Officer.
The Legislature has GOT to get slots approved soon, or the Texas Thoroughbred industry is in serious danger.
The Legislature has GOT to get slots approved soon, or the Texas Thoroughbred industry is in serious danger.
Sierra - I think if the Republicans/Gov. Perry have any prayer of cutting property taxes as a source of revenue for state funding of education AND want to see education improvements throughout the state they DO NEED to take at least another, this time serious, look at VLTs as a potential replacement revenue source. It's clear that once you shift the burden of paying for education, let alone "better" education from individual property owners to the respective businesses, expecting them to pay increased or previously unassessed liscencing fees, professional fees...whatever you want to call it....that each business sector will vigorously hunker down with it's lobbyists to block that move. It's also been like a mantra as long as I've lived in Texas - and that's a long time - that there will NEVER be a State Income Tax in Texas, though I happen to think "never" is a long, long time..... So somwhere between what we want and what we have to work with there is a huge need for a new revenue source.......AND a large number of Texans who will travel to New Mexico, Louisiana to gamble, with slots being the primary method every weekend. (Oklahoma soon to get it's share of this "gold rush" too.) You'd think the chance to solve this problem AND resuscitate an entire sector of our agricultural econonmy/entertainment economy might get some attention, no?!
Just to show you how varied 'the view' of a Sale can be I thought I'd share this from the Texas Thoroughbred Association site:
"Texas-bred colt tops Fasig-Tipton Texas Summer Yearling Sale
8/27/2005
A Texas-bred son of Lemon Drop Kid sold for $132,000 to top the August 29-30 Fasig-Tipton Texas Summer Yearling Sale at Lone Star Park. Consigned by Lane’s End Texas, agent for Ed Few and Stonerside Stable, the bay colt went to Texan Jerry Durant, the brother of prominent owner Tom Durant. The February foal is out of Salsa Stacy, a stakes-producing daughter of Gilded Time.
This year’s sale, which had the largest catalog for a Texas yearling sale since 1998, grossed $3,335,100, a drop of less than 1 percent compared to last year. A total of 323 horses sold, up 19.6 percent from 270 in 2004. The average dropped 17.2 percent to $10,325 from $12,477, the median dropped 35.7 percent to $4,500 from $7,000, and the buy-back rate jumped to 35.1 percent from 26.4 percent.
Tim Boyce, director of sales for Fasig-Tipton Texas, attributed the declines to Hurricane Katrina, which kept many Louisiana buyers at home, and to the lack of video lottery terminals (VLTs) at Texas tracks, which resulted in decreased demand for Texas-breds.
The November/December issue of The Texas Thoroughbred will contain complete coverage of the sale. Hip-by-hip results are available on the Fasig-Tipton website – August 29 | August 30."
I don't know about you but I hardly regard a son of Lemon Drop Kid out of a Gilded Time mare to be an exemplar of a "Texas-bred" thoroughbred, his accredidation credentials notwithstanding. However it is an example in 'smart' breeding for the marketplace: take a SW mare with a foal by Belmont Stakes winner in utero and accredidate her as a Texas Accredited mare, foal her out in Texas and breed her back to....let me guess....Valid Expectations?? Now that this Lemon Drop Kid foal has set a Sale topper record his half sibling can be looked forward to possibally doing the same at next year's Yearling Sale if by the only Texas based sire that's consistently doing well in the auctions. Not a bad plan, folks.
Kind of silly isn't it that Hurricane Katrina is being blamed for the drop in average and median prices with concurrent increases in RNA.....instead of say a plethora of horses for the available market demand??? Somehow I kind of doubt that a whole lot of Lousiana thoroughbred buyers were deciding instead to ride out Katrina in the Big Easy....though I did just learn that many of the airlines canceled flights as early as Saturday evening, leaving some folks stranded with no way of getting out until after the storm blew through....and now no means of getting out any time soon it would seem.
After that they offer up the "lack of VLTs" explanation and I have to tip my hat to Austique's comment above. I keep hearing about VLTs being what Texas racing needs to turn itsself around...but have my doubts...unless purses are the only thing that matters, because they will do that to some extent anyway. (I sort of wonder if Texas having "sat this one out" so to speak may fianally get on board with the VLTs trend only to find they are a bit late and find that instead of having people beating a path to their door they are still driving to La. and New Mexico for the perceived/real "entertainment value" in the gambling resorts offered there as opposed to a plain o' racino operation in state? I also see the presense of VLTs at our tracks as quite possibally a final nail in the coffin of any attempt to attract families to take in horse racing asa sport/entertainment option and perhaps, thereby grow a fan base. It's pretty hard to see any redeeming 'family' value in a slots parlor set up isn't it?)
Actually Fasig Tipton came out about the same as last year on this Sale in terms of their percentage of the total Sales, so I see no real incentive there for a more selective Sale....unless of course, they pay attention to Seller discontent. Seller's may, however look elsewhere for their products to be offered.
In any event I thought this 'Chamber of Commerce' sort of write up was kind of fun to read.....<head shake>.....after reveiwing the Sale Results....<head shake>
"Texas-bred colt tops Fasig-Tipton Texas Summer Yearling Sale
8/27/2005
A Texas-bred son of Lemon Drop Kid sold for $132,000 to top the August 29-30 Fasig-Tipton Texas Summer Yearling Sale at Lone Star Park. Consigned by Lane’s End Texas, agent for Ed Few and Stonerside Stable, the bay colt went to Texan Jerry Durant, the brother of prominent owner Tom Durant. The February foal is out of Salsa Stacy, a stakes-producing daughter of Gilded Time.
This year’s sale, which had the largest catalog for a Texas yearling sale since 1998, grossed $3,335,100, a drop of less than 1 percent compared to last year. A total of 323 horses sold, up 19.6 percent from 270 in 2004. The average dropped 17.2 percent to $10,325 from $12,477, the median dropped 35.7 percent to $4,500 from $7,000, and the buy-back rate jumped to 35.1 percent from 26.4 percent.
Tim Boyce, director of sales for Fasig-Tipton Texas, attributed the declines to Hurricane Katrina, which kept many Louisiana buyers at home, and to the lack of video lottery terminals (VLTs) at Texas tracks, which resulted in decreased demand for Texas-breds.
The November/December issue of The Texas Thoroughbred will contain complete coverage of the sale. Hip-by-hip results are available on the Fasig-Tipton website – August 29 | August 30."
I don't know about you but I hardly regard a son of Lemon Drop Kid out of a Gilded Time mare to be an exemplar of a "Texas-bred" thoroughbred, his accredidation credentials notwithstanding. However it is an example in 'smart' breeding for the marketplace: take a SW mare with a foal by Belmont Stakes winner in utero and accredidate her as a Texas Accredited mare, foal her out in Texas and breed her back to....let me guess....Valid Expectations?? Now that this Lemon Drop Kid foal has set a Sale topper record his half sibling can be looked forward to possibally doing the same at next year's Yearling Sale if by the only Texas based sire that's consistently doing well in the auctions. Not a bad plan, folks.
Kind of silly isn't it that Hurricane Katrina is being blamed for the drop in average and median prices with concurrent increases in RNA.....instead of say a plethora of horses for the available market demand??? Somehow I kind of doubt that a whole lot of Lousiana thoroughbred buyers were deciding instead to ride out Katrina in the Big Easy....though I did just learn that many of the airlines canceled flights as early as Saturday evening, leaving some folks stranded with no way of getting out until after the storm blew through....and now no means of getting out any time soon it would seem.
After that they offer up the "lack of VLTs" explanation and I have to tip my hat to Austique's comment above. I keep hearing about VLTs being what Texas racing needs to turn itsself around...but have my doubts...unless purses are the only thing that matters, because they will do that to some extent anyway. (I sort of wonder if Texas having "sat this one out" so to speak may fianally get on board with the VLTs trend only to find they are a bit late and find that instead of having people beating a path to their door they are still driving to La. and New Mexico for the perceived/real "entertainment value" in the gambling resorts offered there as opposed to a plain o' racino operation in state? I also see the presense of VLTs at our tracks as quite possibally a final nail in the coffin of any attempt to attract families to take in horse racing asa sport/entertainment option and perhaps, thereby grow a fan base. It's pretty hard to see any redeeming 'family' value in a slots parlor set up isn't it?)
Actually Fasig Tipton came out about the same as last year on this Sale in terms of their percentage of the total Sales, so I see no real incentive there for a more selective Sale....unless of course, they pay attention to Seller discontent. Seller's may, however look elsewhere for their products to be offered.
In any event I thought this 'Chamber of Commerce' sort of write up was kind of fun to read.....<head shake>.....after reveiwing the Sale Results....<head shake>
-
elviswastheking
- Maiden Special Weight
- Posts: 213
- Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:20 am
- Location: Texas
Commanchero's offspring looked very good to me as a group. If you do not mind waiting on them to mature a little, he will most definately reward you with some very very good runners. You will start really seeing that happening next year and on. The Valid Expectations looked very good as always, as they are an early maturing line. Hadif yearlings were as good looking as anything I saw there, including the Lemon Drop Kid, but it again is because the Hadif's are ready to go so early physically.
I saw some really nice looking Texas-Bred animals here that were way underbid, because alot of the buyers were looking for the Louisiana bred stock. I suppose we should just give up here in Texas and just all move east.
I saw some really nice looking Texas-Bred animals here that were way underbid, because alot of the buyers were looking for the Louisiana bred stock. I suppose we should just give up here in Texas and just all move east.
I was surprised by the Storm Day's selling so well. Elvis since you were there do you feel that there was more of a focus on the individual or the pedigree? I saw a lot of stallions will lower stud fees that were getting good returns with certain foals and then having other foals which sold more modestly.
Since I went to the sale to sell rather than buy, I avoided the heat as much as possible, and didn't work hard evaluating yearlings. Mostly I schmoozed with the people I knew, did a little marketing of my products, and spent some time with the breeders and buyers of my horses past and present.
I met "toadie" from the forum, who attended Monday from Ft. Worth. Sorry I missed you, Elvis.
As for my two, Sawmill Road looked immature, but of good size compared to others. He looks like a future grass runner of distance races to me, as his mom was best at 1+ miles and is by Bien Bien, and his dad didn't race until he was five. His xrays showed an OCD lesion in a stifle that may later affect his racing chances and may require surgery. I was sorry to sell him so cheaply ($1200), but I was glad somebody bid on him, so I wouldn't have to take him home and spend more money on him. I wish them well with him.
The filly Music Fest looks like a possible early athlete, with a big butt and chest, and of good size and attitude. Her page was the best of the Festival of Lights, and she was evaluated by many buyers, and received bids from many buyers as well. Her conformation is iffy, with an offset right knee of moderate degree. I was prepared to take her home if she sold for less than about $4500, but she brought $7200. Not profitable, but not horrific. Her new owner Mr. Farrell of Ryder River Ridge Farms in Louisiana wants her for future broodmare material for his stallion Toolighttoquit. I hope I convinced him to consider racing her first, since her mama was a 2yo stakes winner. That would be a shame if he chose not to try her on the track before breeding her.
I had made them both eligible for Breeders' Cup, Texas Stallion Stakes and accredited Texas-bred, so if the new owners choose to do the follow-through, I still have a chance of receiving future breeder's and nominator's awards. And my costs cease for these two, so I can redistribute the attention to the other eleven horses and upcoming three stud fees for the currently pregnant mares.
Many of the offered horses that appeared to sell at reasonable prices of $7500-50,000 were actually RNA'ed, for future sales or racing plans.
I met "toadie" from the forum, who attended Monday from Ft. Worth. Sorry I missed you, Elvis.
As for my two, Sawmill Road looked immature, but of good size compared to others. He looks like a future grass runner of distance races to me, as his mom was best at 1+ miles and is by Bien Bien, and his dad didn't race until he was five. His xrays showed an OCD lesion in a stifle that may later affect his racing chances and may require surgery. I was sorry to sell him so cheaply ($1200), but I was glad somebody bid on him, so I wouldn't have to take him home and spend more money on him. I wish them well with him.
The filly Music Fest looks like a possible early athlete, with a big butt and chest, and of good size and attitude. Her page was the best of the Festival of Lights, and she was evaluated by many buyers, and received bids from many buyers as well. Her conformation is iffy, with an offset right knee of moderate degree. I was prepared to take her home if she sold for less than about $4500, but she brought $7200. Not profitable, but not horrific. Her new owner Mr. Farrell of Ryder River Ridge Farms in Louisiana wants her for future broodmare material for his stallion Toolighttoquit. I hope I convinced him to consider racing her first, since her mama was a 2yo stakes winner. That would be a shame if he chose not to try her on the track before breeding her.
I had made them both eligible for Breeders' Cup, Texas Stallion Stakes and accredited Texas-bred, so if the new owners choose to do the follow-through, I still have a chance of receiving future breeder's and nominator's awards. And my costs cease for these two, so I can redistribute the attention to the other eleven horses and upcoming three stud fees for the currently pregnant mares.
Many of the offered horses that appeared to sell at reasonable prices of $7500-50,000 were actually RNA'ed, for future sales or racing plans.
Last edited by henthorn on Thu Sep 01, 2005 12:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Rocking H
Hentorn,
Would you take an Okie bred (by a KY stallion) to Texas, Lousiana, or Oklahoma (Heritage place) to sell? I've got two '05 colts that I need to figure out where to sell next year. They are out of older mares who have produced runners but no stake horses, lots of blacktype in the 2nd dam and beyond but not under the first dam (for the foal's page). They were born in Jan & Feb so will have an advantage there.
After Katrina, I'm thinking that LA might not be a place to sell anytime soon. Even if the tracks survived, the gaming may fall off severely by this time next year. Although, I did sell at Shreveport year before last and there were alot of FL pinhookers there. Hmmm
Would you take an Okie bred (by a KY stallion) to Texas, Lousiana, or Oklahoma (Heritage place) to sell? I've got two '05 colts that I need to figure out where to sell next year. They are out of older mares who have produced runners but no stake horses, lots of blacktype in the 2nd dam and beyond but not under the first dam (for the foal's page). They were born in Jan & Feb so will have an advantage there.
After Katrina, I'm thinking that LA might not be a place to sell anytime soon. Even if the tracks survived, the gaming may fall off severely by this time next year. Although, I did sell at Shreveport year before last and there were alot of FL pinhookers there. Hmmm
I'm sorry, Aurora, I thought I had answered this post last week, but maybe it was lost when the website went down. I would think your best bet for a yearling OK-bred by a KY stallion would be Texas F-T, since Oklahoma will have slots at the tracks earlier than Texas will. And the Classics can be profitable if the horse is talented.
Louisiana has no need for OK-breds, since their incentive program is already lucrative and they race year-round. Heritage Place is mostly a sales venue for quarter horses and broodmares. Not too many buyers of yearlings attend with any real money.
Louisiana has no need for OK-breds, since their incentive program is already lucrative and they race year-round. Heritage Place is mostly a sales venue for quarter horses and broodmares. Not too many buyers of yearlings attend with any real money.
Rocking H
Thanks, Henthorn
I appreciate the input. Its a hard decision, all three places have their downsides. I was hoping that since OK passed slots it would help horse racing but I don't think it will help that much. The Indian casinos seem to have that business pretty well tied up. They have a huge advertizing budget where you never hear anything about horse racing, even while Fair Meadows is running live. We went to the Pawhuska rodeo a couple of weekends ago and Cherokee Casino was even a big sponsor there. Here in the Tulsa area, the local horse racing betting parlor has lost business to the casinos.
I appreciate the input. Its a hard decision, all three places have their downsides. I was hoping that since OK passed slots it would help horse racing but I don't think it will help that much. The Indian casinos seem to have that business pretty well tied up. They have a huge advertizing budget where you never hear anything about horse racing, even while Fair Meadows is running live. We went to the Pawhuska rodeo a couple of weekends ago and Cherokee Casino was even a big sponsor there. Here in the Tulsa area, the local horse racing betting parlor has lost business to the casinos.
Tulsa is really in trouble with both attendance and handle dipping this season and the fact that they will be the only track not getting slots. I would second Henthorn with the suggestion of Fasig Tipton TX as the best place to sell that type of foal. I think Heritage Place is best when you have a KY sired foal that might be a tad below average confirmation wise as the buyers at Heritage Place can sometimes be blinded by the KY pedigree just enough to squeak out a better price price than you might get with several KY sired foals in the mix in Texas. JMO.
elviswastheking wrote:Henthorn,
Just wondering, how is the temperment with your Festival Of Light? We have a yearling colt by him. He has a bit of an attitude which does not suprise me at all. Fantastic looking creature though.
This is an older post but wasn't sure if you knew Festival of Light had been gelded for bad temperment?
I was impressed with his pedigree and race record but he was gelded after one breeding season.....I'm always a day late and a dollar short! I'm looking forward to seeing how his babies do at the track.
"Animals are such agreeable friends--they ask no questions, they pass no criticisms."
-----George Eliot
-----George Eliot