Why some don't sell?

Talk about upcoming sales or auction results.

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Heidilady
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Why some don't sell?

Postby Heidilady » Wed Aug 10, 2005 6:53 pm

Hey I was just going through looking at the sires that had offspring go through the sales ring with yearlings and 2 yos in Fasig Tipton's various 2005 sales so far. I noticed certain things that I'd just love to get your opinions on since I've never been to one and probably won't have a chance (or the money haha) anytime soon.

I know that some horses slip through for absolute bargains to go through and do great things and some cost a fortune that really aren't gonna do diddly on the track or in the shed. What does it say though if a reserve of, say, $2700 isn't met and horses in the same auction are going for $70,000 or something? Is the conformation that bad? And what about the horse that does sell for that same amount? How can a horse even with absolutely no breeding go through for that low unless the conformation was dreadful? A good conformation with no name pedigree would sell wouldn't it? If they had respectable bloodlines does that mean the conformation was really really bad? If anybody just talk a bit about that kind of thing I'd really appreciate it. Sorry about the twenty questions format...I just saw horses going for that and thought "sure that might be more affordable for me if horses are going for that much but would I even want what I could get for that price?" I wouldn't wanna end up with the world's biggest buyer's remorse because where I saw bargain everyone else saw 'crooked lemon.'

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Sysonby
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Postby Sysonby » Wed Aug 10, 2005 7:40 pm

There are lots of reasons beyond conformation and pedigree why horses can't sell. Maybe the Xrays are bad or the horse doesn't scope. Maybe the horse is really small or so crooked he is essentially deformed and has zero chance of making it as a racehorse.

A yearling is at least $10,000 away from even being a riding horse. When you mentally calculate $1000 for the horse and then $10,000 for the upkeep and training and then realize that in all probability that horse's future is as a $4000 maiden claimer and/or a $2000 riding horse, it's easy to see why some animals can't even be given away.

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Heidilady
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Postby Heidilady » Thu Aug 11, 2005 1:30 am

Thanks for the insights. That hadn't occurred to me in quite that way. It's a bit like a movie studio seeing a movie as only gonna make so much money realistically--it's gonna cost more than that to make for very meager returns in all likelihood--so they decide to pass on the project.

I was told a couple useful pieces of information that I should only put in what I'm willing to lose and that I'd be lucky to break even and that that would be doing pretty well. Would you agree with that advice? I guess it works for Las Vegas too.

What I guess I also wondered is if this is a sale by Fasig-Tipton, why would they let these lackluster horses in if they were essentially deformed or would only sell for $2500 compared to the $250,000 gems that bump up their average and give them the good numbers. They don't all have to cost millions but at what point do you have horses for the little guy and at what point do realize the horse is just plain a mess and say 'hey we're Fasig-Tipton, we got a reputation and standards fella and that horse just won't do anybody any favors by being here, including to himself what with that disgrace of a conformation.' What standards exist when they say "sure we'll take that horse as part of this auction" if in fact there are any. I assume there are but I have no idea what they would be so I'd love to know how that all works. Thanks.

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Postby HR LLC » Thu Aug 11, 2005 6:40 am

As a owner that shops the Fasig Tipton sales for cheaper stock, I would say Fasig is doing a great job providing horses to a range of buyers. I agree with you in a sense that some horses should not be in the sale but on the other side you that you have to provide a forum for all the consignors(sellers). Fasig is the middle man that gets paid regardless and not every horse is a 100k animal. I think Fasig and other sales companies take pride in the fact that you can purchase a horse under 10k and win races(sometimes stakes races). There are horses like Xtra Heat that went for 5k, Seattle Slew went for 17.5k and so on...

There are numerous horses that went for over 500k that cant outrun a stable's pony horse. Race horses are very fragile and they are a huge gamble regardless of their sales price....

I review past sales especially for horses under 10k just to see where they are or even if they made it to the track. You do see a large % of them that dont race at all or run in low level claiming races. A lot of that depends upon how the horse is handled and how much the owner is willing to put out to get the horse to the track. Some owners know it costs at least 10k to get a horse to the track and if you purchase a horse for 2.5k its not worth it if the horse is not showing any signs of racing ability. You just cut your losses at that point.

It sounds like you are just starting out and I would advise you to find a good trainer first. Someone who you can trust and someone who has done well with horses in the price range you are looking to buy.

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Postby austique » Thu Aug 11, 2005 9:38 am

Inadequate sales prep can do a lot of harm too. Especially at smaller sales. OSU had a client who had bought several foals off of them and decided to sell almost all of them as yearlings. They left them out in a pasture up until 30 days out from the sale and then gave them to Lazy E for sales prep and were like "Perform a miracle". Needless to say even Lazy E couldn't prep those foals adequately in that amount of time and very few sold and the ones that did went for killer price. There were a couple of nice foals in there, but they looked awful.

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Postby Crystal » Thu Aug 11, 2005 11:05 am

sales prepping is funny.. If the horse looks like crap, they blame the prepper.. If he looks awesome, people believe it's the pedigree coming threw.. Some preppers do perform miracles.. others need more help than any prepper can give.

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Postby Heidilady » Mon Aug 15, 2005 1:16 am

What exactly do they do to prep for sale? I always figured it was a matter of fattening up to look nice and glossy.

It's funny that Man O'War got the flu before he went to sale and even at the time of the auction he still hadn't put on enough weight to look more than scrawny and big boned. He sold for something like $5,000 but at the time of sale it was actually one of the higher prices as I understand it. Still he could've gone for alot more if he'd looked more like they expected top yearlings to look fatwise. The average sales price was quite a bit less even though there were horses like Golden Broom looking all nice and plump going for something in the teens. If MOW hadn't worked out as a racehorse Riddle said he would've had a career as a hunter, isn't that amazing? Wow that was so offtopic....sorry :oops:

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Postby Roguelet » Mon Aug 15, 2005 7:02 am

I'd like to think that a good horseman can see past a fat "prepped" horse to see what's really underneath. I'd also like to think that a good horseman would rather have a tough, sound horse who was NOT made to mature too quickly, causing undue stress on joints, and who is allowed to grow up running outside and toughening their legs, not stuck in a stall so they can look pretty. However, pretty sells. It's like common sense goes out the window sometimes... :roll: Shoot, you can make any horse look "pretty," but that's not what wins races, ya know??? :shock:
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Postby skeenan » Tue Aug 16, 2005 8:12 am

I just looked on http://www.obssales.com and they have real nice photos of the select yearlings going into their August sale. Many are by sires in this last NY sale... so as someone who hasn't attended, either, it's interesting to get to compare a handful of yearlings by the same sire...

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Postby Sylvie Hebert » Tue Aug 16, 2005 3:01 pm

went to an auction at Evangeline in the spring with my teenage son,he begged me to buy a 3 yo gelding that did not attract a single bid and was being sold for meat.ended up buying him for $500. for him,well he is galloping and now 2 minutes licking and even all crooked(believe me he is awfully crooked...)looks not that bad,even good on the racetrack...he did have a half decent family...
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Heidilady
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Postby Heidilady » Wed Aug 17, 2005 8:55 pm

What's the situation as far as horses that don't sell being privately sold right afterward? I know they have reserves for a reason but if they maybe aimed a little high would they rather regroup and try for a 2yo in training sale or would they maybe take a dip in price given that someone's interested enough in the horse to take them now, just not for as much as they'd planned? Would they bank on the worth of the horse increasing should it make it through being broken and putting in a furlong work? I guess maybe it has several determining factors like bloodlines and likelihood of the yearling looking better as they age but is it worth the risk that they won't hold together long enough to make the 2yo sale?

Alot of big horses were once buy backs so I guess alot of directions get taken getting them to the track. Anybody know of a horse we'd have heard of who got bought privately post-sale?

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Postby LSB » Thu Aug 18, 2005 6:01 am

It's not at all unusual for horses that are bought back in the auction ring to be sold privately just afterward. Often interested buyers follow the horse back to the barn and negotiate on the spot. At last year's Keeneland Sept. sale, Taylor Made was holding an RNA sale at their farm during week two. offering people a second look at their yearlings that had RNA'd during week one.

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Postby henthorn » Thu Aug 18, 2005 10:38 am

Heidilady, let's say you want a $5000 or less yearling who is built to be a racehorse someday.

1. First you ignore all the catalog pages of the poorest-bred horses, and there are a lot of them in all but the select sales.
2. Then you ignore all the catalog pages of the horses you expect to be out of your price range by stud fee or auction history.

3. Then you evaluate the horses you might potentially buy, and cross off the ones that are not acceptable.
4. Then you reevaluate your list of remaining horses and reduce that further to those you especially liked, and go back and look at them again if time allows.
5. Then you cross off some of those after the second viewing: too small, too heavy, too nutty, too nervous, too stupid, too crooked, something you missed earlier, etc.

6. Then you send your vet or go yourself to evaluate the xrays and endoscopy reports in the repository, and decide if you want to have the vet check out some of the others.
7. You choose a few to bid on, and they all sell for more than you want to spend, or you pass on some of the early ones to wait for later ones.

Many horses fall through in this process.

Behavioral issues, conformation issues, poor pedigrees, consignors you don't want to bother with (not to be found, totally inefficient, have caused all their horses to be head-cases). Well-bred horses that sell for less than expected (and you didn't bother to evaluate at your budget level). Late horses in the sale often sell for less, because all the buyers already went home. Earlier horses can fail to sell well, while the buyers wait for later ones to go through. Some go through the ring while you are back at the barn, and you missed your chance to bid. Weather conditions or distractions can increase or reduce the number of potential buyers for a particular horse or group of horses (9/11 bombing occurred during the Keeneland yearling sale, and then there was an air travel freeze.) Thunderstorms keep you in one barn area for an extended period, and you can't get to the other barns or to the sales arena for awhile. Or some barns have more shade or cooler fans or a mister, or food or beverage.

You can often still get your Plan B horse that seemed to sell really cheap while you waited for a later hip number that outstripped your budget. By checking with the sales office to see if the horse was actually sold, you may find he/she was RNA'ed (bought back by the owner because Reserve Not Attained). You may be able to purchase the horse privately by going back to the barn and negotiating with the owner or consignor.

As for the sales company accepting or rejecting the individual horses, that only happens in the select sales, which are basically invitation-only, based on inspection and pedigree. Most owners/consignors choose a sale for the horse based on geography, past experiences, or the sales charges. It costs more to sell a horse at Keeneland than at Fasig-Tipton Texas more than at Thomas Sales Company in Tulsa more than at local auction companies.
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Heidilady
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Postby Heidilady » Thu Aug 18, 2005 9:56 pm

Wow thanks everyone this is some great stuff to know. That's exactly why I love this forum since all I have to do is have something I want to learn about and within days or very likely hours there's a few people with brains for me to pick--they all give quite generously too. :)

Has anybody here gotten a horse you'd been looking at based on (after other factors like conformation) some intangible 'look in their eyes' kind of thing? Some people watch out for the 'look of the eagles' and some people just feel a connection with the horse. Seems like you'd say a horse like Afleet Alex gave that to his connections before he ever did anything. Famous examples would be horses like Man O'War, Ruffian, and for Tom Smith it was Seabiscuit. Bobby Frankek went gaga for Empire Maker from foalhood. At what point do you go 'sure they're crazy ala Sand Springs or FuPeg or what have you but they'll do what I need to win'? What aspects of temperament are a dealbreaker for you personally? This is just a generally directed question..... thanks on that last on from LSB and henthorn.

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Postby diomed » Mon Aug 22, 2005 5:49 am

Roguelet wrote:I'd like to think that a good horseman can see past a fat "prepped" horse to see what's really underneath. I'd also like to think that a good horseman would rather have a tough, sound horse who was NOT made to mature too quickly, causing undue stress on joints, and who is allowed to grow up running outside and toughening their legs, not stuck in a stall so they can look pretty. However, pretty sells. It's like common sense goes out the window sometimes... :roll: Shoot, you can make any horse look "pretty," but that's not what wins races, ya know??? :shock:


Good point to me...I don't understand the race for the "size" in these yearlings....Honest to god, some of them look like 'horses'...I have seen thousands of yearlings...Been to Keeneland and been to regional sales too...At keeneland, while perfectly groomed, most look like yearlings to me..Only a handful are very large, too muscled, etc....Yesterday I was at the Michigan yearling sale and something just wasn't right...I have never seen so many 16h yearlings in my life....Have you ever seen an Apr/May foal that is 16h tall? Either they are giving them steriods or they are MUCH OLDER than the program says....Many of these yearlings were from the same farm standing the same stallion....Do you think they are going to say the mare wasn't serviced on the appropriate date? Hmmmmm......Anyways, I saw some nice yearlings(good pages too) that were small at this sale(actually average sized vs what I have seen in my lifetime)...Sold for nothing....It's such a joke...I have even put a couple in my future stable mail list...There was a couple that will come back to bite em in the arse..LOL!!!