Secretariat daughters at the January Sale
Moderators: Roguelet, WaveMaster, madelyn
Secretariat daughters at the January Sale
There are 5 secretariat daughters at the upcoming January sale. Hips 137,381 382 746 and 2071. Any speculation what they will bring? Hip# 381 is out of a Sham daughter, Secret Imperatrice. Great name. Obviously older mares but let's not forget that Somethingroyal was 18 or so when Big Red was born.
Well yes, but Somethingroyal had already produced Cherryville, SIR GAYLORD, Mostar, FIRST FAMILY, Grand Coulee, and SYRIAN SEA, , plus a few other horses, by the time Secretariat came along.. she had PROVEN her ability. She also went on to produce a couple more stakes horses and had her last foal at 25. This suggests to me that she was just as unusual and unique as her son, Secretariat. Also, just look at her female family.
The thing about Secretariat's daughters is that we have now got lots of historical data to analyse. Secretariat proved not much as a sire. His top successes as broodmares, Terlingua and Weekend Surprise, were from such heavy-hitting female families as to suggest that it was the strands of DNA from the dams mixed with Somethingroyal that created those ladies.
To further analyze (and by the way I believe it is analomous that there are FIVE Secretariat daughters in this sale... who were obviously not good enough to make it into the November catalog), let's look at what the seller thinks of his mare. #137 is in foal to Lion Heart ($30K stud fee); #381 to Aldebaran ($40K); #382 to More Than Ready ($30K), #746 to Zavata ($7500) and #2071 to Malabar Gold ($7500). Given the ages of the mares, their produce records and potential, I could hazard a guess that #137 and 382 are deemed worth $75K, #381 $90K and, well, #746 and #2071 maybe $30K each.. and Keeneland didn't think much of them either if that is where they landed in the catalogs. Or it is possible they ranked them by the desirability of the covering sire.... these mares could also be on mare shares, which would also align with those values. The mares' desirability to me is diminished by their produce records. They are mostly from better dams than themselves. Of course to own one of Secretariat's daughters might give one the feel of owning a true part of racing history... but there are economic factors to consider and no analysis would be complete without a look at the mares' sales histories for offspring, which are not too inspiring given the era.
The thing about Secretariat's daughters is that we have now got lots of historical data to analyse. Secretariat proved not much as a sire. His top successes as broodmares, Terlingua and Weekend Surprise, were from such heavy-hitting female families as to suggest that it was the strands of DNA from the dams mixed with Somethingroyal that created those ladies.
To further analyze (and by the way I believe it is analomous that there are FIVE Secretariat daughters in this sale... who were obviously not good enough to make it into the November catalog), let's look at what the seller thinks of his mare. #137 is in foal to Lion Heart ($30K stud fee); #381 to Aldebaran ($40K); #382 to More Than Ready ($30K), #746 to Zavata ($7500) and #2071 to Malabar Gold ($7500). Given the ages of the mares, their produce records and potential, I could hazard a guess that #137 and 382 are deemed worth $75K, #381 $90K and, well, #746 and #2071 maybe $30K each.. and Keeneland didn't think much of them either if that is where they landed in the catalogs. Or it is possible they ranked them by the desirability of the covering sire.... these mares could also be on mare shares, which would also align with those values. The mares' desirability to me is diminished by their produce records. They are mostly from better dams than themselves. Of course to own one of Secretariat's daughters might give one the feel of owning a true part of racing history... but there are economic factors to consider and no analysis would be complete without a look at the mares' sales histories for offspring, which are not too inspiring given the era.
So Run for the Roses, as fast as you can.....
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roving boy
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Madelyn, while I don't disagree with much of the content of your post, I do have a problem with the statement "...who were obviously not good enough to make it into the November catalog". Taken at face value, you have stated that the lesser quality mares always sell in November, and that Keeneland judges and accepts entry applications on this basis. While this may be your opinion, it has no basis in fact; it simply is not true.
There were quite a few mares in November that were inferior to these, and mares are placed in the January sales for a number of reasons. In fact, it was just a couple of years ago that similar, high quality mares seemed to bring more in January than in November (perhaps because of a scarcity at the top in Jan? Perhaps because KeeJan is a smaller sale). There is also a school of thought that late cover mares sell better in January because there are fewer mares offered and therefore late covers are not as easily discarded.
At any rate, I think one would be mistaken to infer from your post that the mares offered in January are patently inferior to those offered in November.
There were quite a few mares in November that were inferior to these, and mares are placed in the January sales for a number of reasons. In fact, it was just a couple of years ago that similar, high quality mares seemed to bring more in January than in November (perhaps because of a scarcity at the top in Jan? Perhaps because KeeJan is a smaller sale). There is also a school of thought that late cover mares sell better in January because there are fewer mares offered and therefore late covers are not as easily discarded.
At any rate, I think one would be mistaken to infer from your post that the mares offered in January are patently inferior to those offered in November.
Roving Boy
madelyn wrote:To further analyze (and by the way I believe it is analomous that there are FIVE Secretariat daughters in this sale...
Since I make my living with words, it's rare that someone sends me to the dictionary, but you managed it with analomous.
However, my American Heritage Dictionary doesn't list the word. What does it mean?
LSB wrote:madelyn wrote:To further analyze (and by the way I believe it is analomous that there are FIVE Secretariat daughters in this sale...
Since I make my living with words, it's rare that someone sends me to the dictionary, but you managed it with analomous.
However, my American Heritage Dictionary doesn't list the word. What does it mean?
May be dyslexia on my part, but my brain say it as "anomalous" and that word seems to make sense in context. Madelyn, is that what you had in mind?
Sorry Roving Boy, I was going on what I had been told outright by a bloodstock agent... I must admit I was venturing into untested ground with my sketchy analysis and fully expected to take a beating 
And actually to fully explain what I was told, it was a "fish in pond" theory. There were likely lesser mares in the November sale. But there were an awful lot of MUCH better mares. Perhaps these five daughters of Big Red would have been lost in November and the January sale gives them more opportunity to shine because of the (lack of) competition, and therefore more of a chance of having their price meet their value. Something along the lines of: Would you rather sell one of the more expensive horses at a lower-priced sale or one of the lower-priced horses at an expensive sale?
Sorry about the word, UmmYeah, I meant to say "an anomaly" -- but I rip up the keys at 120wpm and English is not my mother tongue.. it came out as "anomalous."
And actually to fully explain what I was told, it was a "fish in pond" theory. There were likely lesser mares in the November sale. But there were an awful lot of MUCH better mares. Perhaps these five daughters of Big Red would have been lost in November and the January sale gives them more opportunity to shine because of the (lack of) competition, and therefore more of a chance of having their price meet their value. Something along the lines of: Would you rather sell one of the more expensive horses at a lower-priced sale or one of the lower-priced horses at an expensive sale?
Sorry about the word, UmmYeah, I meant to say "an anomaly" -- but I rip up the keys at 120wpm and English is not my mother tongue.. it came out as "anomalous."
So Run for the Roses, as fast as you can.....
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roving boy
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No worries - the "fish in the pond" theory for sales placement is often re-worded as "it is better to be a star on an average day than an average horse on a star day"! And I believe it!
To expound on this, often a horse placed a bit further back in the catalog will bring more than it would have if it had been more forwardly placed. Owners are sometimes deer in the headlights when they see Book 1 averages, and therefore want to be in Book1. But if the horse is not a standout on that day in physical terms but meets the paper terms, that horse will usually sell better later in the sale when its pedigree makes it a standout. If that horse is left in Book 1, it is often a RNA, which leaves both seller and consignor unhappy and hustling to sell what is sometimes seen as damaged goods.
It is a tough game with many nuances that will trip up the unadvised newcomer. Not to mention the thieves and cutthroats that may be unrecognized by the newcomer.
To expound on this, often a horse placed a bit further back in the catalog will bring more than it would have if it had been more forwardly placed. Owners are sometimes deer in the headlights when they see Book 1 averages, and therefore want to be in Book1. But if the horse is not a standout on that day in physical terms but meets the paper terms, that horse will usually sell better later in the sale when its pedigree makes it a standout. If that horse is left in Book 1, it is often a RNA, which leaves both seller and consignor unhappy and hustling to sell what is sometimes seen as damaged goods.
It is a tough game with many nuances that will trip up the unadvised newcomer. Not to mention the thieves and cutthroats that may be unrecognized by the newcomer.
Roving Boy
Guilty, guilty, guilty... I misspelled anomalous, sorry LSB, and I am a newcomer but working very hard to learn so I appreciate the opportunity to test my theories out here on this board without getting blasted.
I did NOT mean to imply that the lesser mares always sell in November; rather that the STARS sell in November. It is not Keeneland, I don't think, who would "reject" a mare for November, rather I have known bloodstock agents to do that. I see your point regarding catalog placement, and of course ALL the horses can't possibly be in Book 1.
I did NOT mean to imply that the lesser mares always sell in November; rather that the STARS sell in November. It is not Keeneland, I don't think, who would "reject" a mare for November, rather I have known bloodstock agents to do that. I see your point regarding catalog placement, and of course ALL the horses can't possibly be in Book 1.
So Run for the Roses, as fast as you can.....
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roving boy
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Hi Madelyn,
Some bloodstock agents couldn't tell you how to tie your shoes. I've heard some of the dumbest things come out of their mouths. To be fair, I've learned a lot from some agents as well.
The January Keeneland sale is one of the most important stock sales but nothing compares with the November sale in scope. January has had it's share of huge prices. The difference in the sales (as far as one is manifested) is that January has a larger percentage of broodmare prospects than November.
The first problem with ANY Secretariat mare (in January 2006) is their age - at least 17. In past years when daughters of Big Red were sold (like An All Time High) they were weak or marginal producers. Getting a filly from most of these mares is probably worth more than a colt. At this point their own race records are just another horse in their pedigree.
CHOSEN LADY (hip #137): Yum Yum!! Wonderful mare, in foal with her 6th straight foal to a hot young sire. You pay retail for the foal now and hope to get a couple more. Late cover date hurts but has a solid breeding record and a full pipeline. A daughter (decently conformed) is worth @$100k+ unraced and more if her other daughters BT.
Estimated sales price: $300,000
SECRET IMPERATRICE (hip #381): Solid mare having her 11th foal in 13 years. Has gotten some big prices in the past (2002 Carson City went for $625k!) but lack of graded production hurts. Later date after open year hurts at her age.
Estimated sales price: $110,.000
SECRETLY (hip #382): Modest production but first 6 foals all winners. Aborting 2005 foal will scare some, but she's only 17
. She helps her own pedigree.
Estimated sales price: $55,000
SECRECELLIA (hip #746): Inconsistent to weak producer with some past breeding problems and 5/19 cover will hurt. Zavata has gotten high prices that have boosted him. Her pedigree will help.
Estimated sales price: $12,000
HUNT (hip #2071): Solid breeder since 1995 (10 in a row) but production has been spotty. Super prices at one time - Kadhaff was $900k. Cover date OK but not after an open year on older mare. Still, might get 3 more foals. Her own pedigree is excellent and will boost price (buyer looking for a daughter). Malabar Gold doesn't help a lot.
Estimated sales price: $25,000
Regards,
Pete
Some bloodstock agents couldn't tell you how to tie your shoes. I've heard some of the dumbest things come out of their mouths. To be fair, I've learned a lot from some agents as well.
The January Keeneland sale is one of the most important stock sales but nothing compares with the November sale in scope. January has had it's share of huge prices. The difference in the sales (as far as one is manifested) is that January has a larger percentage of broodmare prospects than November.
The first problem with ANY Secretariat mare (in January 2006) is their age - at least 17. In past years when daughters of Big Red were sold (like An All Time High) they were weak or marginal producers. Getting a filly from most of these mares is probably worth more than a colt. At this point their own race records are just another horse in their pedigree.
CHOSEN LADY (hip #137): Yum Yum!! Wonderful mare, in foal with her 6th straight foal to a hot young sire. You pay retail for the foal now and hope to get a couple more. Late cover date hurts but has a solid breeding record and a full pipeline. A daughter (decently conformed) is worth @$100k+ unraced and more if her other daughters BT.
Estimated sales price: $300,000
SECRET IMPERATRICE (hip #381): Solid mare having her 11th foal in 13 years. Has gotten some big prices in the past (2002 Carson City went for $625k!) but lack of graded production hurts. Later date after open year hurts at her age.
Estimated sales price: $110,.000
SECRETLY (hip #382): Modest production but first 6 foals all winners. Aborting 2005 foal will scare some, but she's only 17
. She helps her own pedigree.
Estimated sales price: $55,000
SECRECELLIA (hip #746): Inconsistent to weak producer with some past breeding problems and 5/19 cover will hurt. Zavata has gotten high prices that have boosted him. Her pedigree will help.
Estimated sales price: $12,000
HUNT (hip #2071): Solid breeder since 1995 (10 in a row) but production has been spotty. Super prices at one time - Kadhaff was $900k. Cover date OK but not after an open year on older mare. Still, might get 3 more foals. Her own pedigree is excellent and will boost price (buyer looking for a daughter). Malabar Gold doesn't help a lot.
Estimated sales price: $25,000
Regards,
Pete
Has a palomino jean that pop up some.
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms