Pedigree Query

The following TB that were injured and had to be put down have a pattern of inbreeding that could have caused their soundness problems.

Simply Because---------5 X 5 Nasrullah----------10 crosses of Phalaris

Blazing Sunset----------4 X 5 Northern Dancer---10 crosses of Phalaris

Star over the Bay------5 X 5 Nasrullah-----5 X 5 Turn-to-----7 crosses Ph.

Tizlater----------------2 X 4 Seattle Slew----5 X 5 Northern Dancer--8 Ph.

Gallant Secret-----------No Duplication-------------10 crosses Phalaris

Prime Honor-------------5 X 5 Buckpasser---4 X 5 Fleet Nasrullah--9 Ph.

Ginforthewin------------4 X 4 Northern Dancer---5 X 5 Nasrullah---6 Ph.

Playful Blint-------------3 X 3 Northern Dancer---4X5X5 Native Dancer 9 Ph.

Esroh--------------------5 X 5 Nasrullah--------------5 crosses Phalaris

Bonus Pack-------------4 X 5 Native Dancer--------6 crosses Phalaris

New Joysey Jeff--------4 X 5 Olympia---------------6 crosses Phalaris

Sheriff Jordan----------4 X 4 Bold Ruler--5X5X5 Nasrullah---7 crosses Ph.

Go Bye Bye------------4 X 4 Boldnesian-------------7 crosses Phalaris

Its Who you Know-----5 X 5 Northern Dancer------8 crosses Phalaris

To be continued.

Interestingly, all the inbreedings you stated in your above post were Phalaris line stallions. Not one of these breakdowns were inbred to nonphalaris stallions.

Interestingly, but:

- how many breakdowns are there in total during a year in US-racing?

- did you ever count breakdowns of horses inbred to non-Phalaris-line-horses?

- how many breakdowns are there in not inbred horses?

Want I want to say is, you can't argue with a selected number of cases which fit in one or the other way in your distinct look on the world - whatsoever the topic may be. What you (want to) see is what you get - this way of argumentation works on any topic in tb-breeding.

As much as I know there are some 35,000 thoroughbreds born every year in the US. How many of these run at least once on a race-track? How many never reach the race-track - what were the main reasons for this? When do they break down? In their first / fifth / tenth / 20th livetime-race?

Even if your thesis is right, your argumentation is based just on a small sample of observations, but no solid and valid proof. That's the problem of all the "unsoundness"-debates we had so far in exhaustion on this board.

louis finochio wrote:
To be continued.

Oh please don't Louis..

Or, if you insist, please analyze all of the horses in each of these races who didn't break down. Not that I think that is completely relevant information but at least it would give some context to your point.

The total TB population in the (US) is now 90 % Phalaris, so their shold be more Phalaris sire line breakdowns than NP.

I dont like the inbreeding pattern I am seeing in these TB I posted. I would never breed that close with many duplications of Phalaris, as I have seen many TBwith those spindle legs that cant stand training let alone racing.

To be continued.

Louis, you have posted two facts:
These horses have suffered catastrophic injuries recently.
These horses have all been inbred to Phalaris.

However, you are assuming a causal relationship between these two facts. Instead of just assuming that relationship, you need to prove it. There may be a connection between those two statements, but there may not. It's impossible to tell without more information.

Let's look at a couple of simple statements:
Loggers cut down trees for a living.
John Smith was killed when a tree fell on him.

What conclusions can you draw between the connection of those two statements? None. You need more information, of course, to determine if they are related.

Do you see my point? Prove that relationship. Otherwise, it isn't very different from saying that every one of those horses ate oats and hay.

Well, if you will see a pattern, there is a pattern.

But then: what is close inbreeding? I think, there are only two in your examples given above (a 3x3 and a 2x4). And in many of your recent postings you warned us of 10 and more crosses to Phalaris. As your horses show, most of them are below that figure - and 5 to 7 crosses to a horse born some 90 years ago seems to me quite normal in tb-breeding since Eclipse's times.

I repeat myself: your basic thesis may not be wrong - but you can't proof it in this way af argumentation by taking and omitting the examples as you please and without giving any solid definitions of what is different from normality in the present breed.

Louis, Why don't you review all the sound horses (i.e. all horses with 20 or more starts) and see if they are Phalaris or non Phalaris in pedigree nature.

Interesting.......Lets await for those results

louis finochio wrote:The total TB population in the (US) is now 90 % Phalaris, so their shold be more Phalaris sire line breakdowns than NP.


To be continued.

If 90% of tb's in NA are now Phalaris, and let's say 15% of those horses have career ending or catastrophic injury. What of the MANY Phalaris horses that are and remain in training... So, see the hole in your theory?

Their is a prolific amount of research to be done before anyone can voice his opinion on this inbreeding and breakdowns.

I need the names of those TB that were injured at Hollywood Park spring-summer meet. Can someone post those names and I will continue this research project. Thanks Louis,

I wish you good luck for your research project. To do it the right way you must now the names of the uninjured horses at that meeting as well. Then you have two clearly separated groups of horses where you can research which group has more inbreeding and crosses to Phalaris.

Parlo: I have been researching this Phalaris revolution for many years. Those TB that have not had any major breakdowns have many crosses of Phalaris and NP.

The key to this research is to have a balance of sire lines in a mating and dont continue to inbreed to those foundation Phalaris sire line stallions, that will show up as this research project will unveil.

To be continued.

louis finochio wrote:The key to this research is to have a balance of sire lines in a mating and dont continue to inbreed to those foundation Phalaris sire line stallions, that will show up as this research project will unveil.

Okay Louis... let's see if this gets me anywhere

Phalaris's first crop was 1920. That was 86 years ago.

For a similar break of time to St. Simon puts us in the "superhorse" era of Affirmed and Ruffian.

Affirmed has 13 crosses to St. Simon in his first 10 generations. 29 crosses if you count the daughters of St. Simon in the first 10 gens.

Ruffian has 17 crosses to St. Simon in her first 10 generations. 32 if you count the St. Simon daughters.

Pick an American horse from the 70s and I will bet you dollars to donuts you come up with AT LEAST 7 crosses to Phalaris just through sons.

The point here is that it is NOT unusual for a breed shaping sire to show up 6-15 times in a 10 generation spread.

Exceed the Line-------------4 X 5 Northern Dancer--------------8 crosses Ph.

Warned----------------------No Dupe------------------------------5 Ph./ 41 sts.

Bernel Trail-------4X5 Bold Ruler----5X5X5 Nasrullah---5X5 Khaled--5 Ph.

I Love Lisa--------5 X 5 Nearctic-------3 X 4 Le Fabuleux-------7 Ph.

Gully Washer-----4 X 5 Raise a Native----------------------------8 Ph.

Easy Strider------4 X 4 Ack Ack=Domino-------------------------7 Ph.

Just Ducky-------------------No Dupe------------------------------11 Ph.

Grandelena--5X5 Bold Ruler--4X4 Northern Dancer--5X5 Nashua--5X5X5 Nearctic--------------------------------------------------------------11 Ph.

Angelic Morgan L.-----------No Dupe--------------------------------5 Ph.

Jakes Fever-------Mr. P. 4 X 3---------------------------------------7 Ph.

Our Memento----4X4 Northern Dancer---3X3 Raise a Native---5X5 Forli=Gainsborough------5X5 Thong=Gainsborough---------------8 Ph.

Big Attlet---------3 X3 Mr. P.--------5 X 5 Tom Rolfe=Rabelais----8 Ph.

Up an Octave----3 X 4 Mr. P--------5 X 5 Native Dancer-----------9 Ph.

Counterfeit Gal----2 X 5 Courtly Dee mare by Never Bend----5 X 5 Ribot= Rabelais----------------------------------------------------------------6 Ph.

I need more names of the TB that have had career ending injuries to continue my search.

To be continued, I hope.