Linda_d
It is not the popularity that attracts the best mares it is productivity. Dominate sire lines are created by a stallion or stallions that sire superior runners. At the present time the dominate sire line is that of Northern Dancer followed closely by Mr. Prospector and the fastest rising star is the rejuvenated Bold Ruler line through Seattle Slew and his son A.P. Indy. Within 10 years A.P. Indy will have established his own branch of the Bold Ruler sire line, if he has not already accomplished that feat.
DDT
Raise A Native Sire Line
Moderators: Roguelet, hpkingjr, WaveMaster, Lucy
DDT: You said that at the present time the dominant sire line is that of Northern Dancer and that is followed closely by Mr. Prospector and then Bold Ruler.
What is your take on the following data which is a summary of the sire lines of the top 20 stallions (sire lines) in gross earnings for the whole year of 2011.
9 of the top 20 stallions carried the Raise A Native sire line ---45%
4 of the top 20 stallions carried the Bold Ruler sire line---------20%
3 of the top 20 stallions carried the Northern Dancer sire line--15%
2 of the top 20 stallions carried the Turn To sire line------------10%
1 of the top 20 stallions carried the Nasrullah sire line but it did not go thru Bold Ruler------------------------------------------------------------ 5%
1 of the top 20 stallions carried the RoughN Tumble sire line----5%
According to gross earnings by progeny for the year the RAN sire line is the best with 45% of the top 20 stallions by gross earnings. Northern Dancer was only represented by 3 of the top 20 stallions or 15% of the best 20 stallions in gross earnings in North America.
Now if you were referring to Europe the story changes significantly. Then Northern Dancer is probably the most dominant because a very high percentage of races in Europe are run over turf courses and the Northern Dancer sire line is the best in generating turf winners. But here in America where dirt races are very abundant, the RAN sire line is clearly the most dominant as the stats above indicate.
What is your take on the following data which is a summary of the sire lines of the top 20 stallions (sire lines) in gross earnings for the whole year of 2011.
9 of the top 20 stallions carried the Raise A Native sire line ---45%
4 of the top 20 stallions carried the Bold Ruler sire line---------20%
3 of the top 20 stallions carried the Northern Dancer sire line--15%
2 of the top 20 stallions carried the Turn To sire line------------10%
1 of the top 20 stallions carried the Nasrullah sire line but it did not go thru Bold Ruler------------------------------------------------------------ 5%
1 of the top 20 stallions carried the RoughN Tumble sire line----5%
According to gross earnings by progeny for the year the RAN sire line is the best with 45% of the top 20 stallions by gross earnings. Northern Dancer was only represented by 3 of the top 20 stallions or 15% of the best 20 stallions in gross earnings in North America.
Now if you were referring to Europe the story changes significantly. Then Northern Dancer is probably the most dominant because a very high percentage of races in Europe are run over turf courses and the Northern Dancer sire line is the best in generating turf winners. But here in America where dirt races are very abundant, the RAN sire line is clearly the most dominant as the stats above indicate.
Stan
I was referring to total number of representatives out of the top 150 stallions by progeny earnings listed by the Bloodhorse. I do not have my notes in front of me but I believe it was 50 for Northern Dancer and 45 for Mr. Prospector. I did not count up total earnings for each stallion. I also did not count number of stakes winners, which I will look at later. As far as the world goes, Northern Dancer is the leader, hands down, even with Sunday Silence's record in Japan.
DDT
I was referring to total number of representatives out of the top 150 stallions by progeny earnings listed by the Bloodhorse. I do not have my notes in front of me but I believe it was 50 for Northern Dancer and 45 for Mr. Prospector. I did not count up total earnings for each stallion. I also did not count number of stakes winners, which I will look at later. As far as the world goes, Northern Dancer is the leader, hands down, even with Sunday Silence's record in Japan.
DDT
Stan
I do not know what list you are using but for 2011 on the Bloodhorse list of 150 leading sires by progeny earnings, however, for the top 20 sires Northern Dancer is represented by 8 stallions with 88 stakes winners and approximate earnings of 48 million and Mr. Prospector is represented by 5 stallions with 68 stakes winners and approximate earnings of 38 million, do I really need to carry this out for the whole 150 stallions?
DDT
I do not know what list you are using but for 2011 on the Bloodhorse list of 150 leading sires by progeny earnings, however, for the top 20 sires Northern Dancer is represented by 8 stallions with 88 stakes winners and approximate earnings of 48 million and Mr. Prospector is represented by 5 stallions with 68 stakes winners and approximate earnings of 38 million, do I really need to carry this out for the whole 150 stallions?
DDT
Last edited by DDT on Wed Feb 08, 2012 3:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
ND versus RAN
DDT: My point is that the RAN sire line is much more dominant among the top 20 sires in regard to progeny earnings for 2011. Nine of the top 20 leading sires on the list carry the RAN sire line. Thats 45% of the top 20. The Northern Dancer sire line is only represented by 3 of the top 20 stallions or 15%. The significance as I see it is that the RAN sire line is significantly better with regard to the top 20 sire lines regarding progeny earnings for the 2011 year. And----
Furthermore, comparing results for the same factor for the 2010 year we get 8 of the top 20 carrying the Ran Sire Line and only 5 of the top 20 carrying the Northern Dancer sire line.
Furthermore, comparing results for the same factor for 2009 we get 10 of the top 20 carrying the RAN sire line and only 6 of the top 20 carrying the Northern Dancer sire line.
Need I say more: At the very top of the sire list over the last 3 years one finds the RAN sire line to be more dominant than the Northern Dancer sire line.
This dominance is clearly seen in all three Triple Crown events over the last 25 or so years where the winners much more frequently carry the RAN sire line than any other sire line.
Furthermore, comparing results for the same factor for the 2010 year we get 8 of the top 20 carrying the Ran Sire Line and only 5 of the top 20 carrying the Northern Dancer sire line.
Furthermore, comparing results for the same factor for 2009 we get 10 of the top 20 carrying the RAN sire line and only 6 of the top 20 carrying the Northern Dancer sire line.
Need I say more: At the very top of the sire list over the last 3 years one finds the RAN sire line to be more dominant than the Northern Dancer sire line.
This dominance is clearly seen in all three Triple Crown events over the last 25 or so years where the winners much more frequently carry the RAN sire line than any other sire line.
ND versus RAN
I see the problem now. I used two big books called the Bloodhorse Stallion
Register. The Register from Bloodhorse called the 2011 stallion register is really stats from 2010. Similarly, the stats from the 2010 stallion register concerns the year 2009. Here are the correct figures for 2010 and 2009:
2010-----The Top 20 sires are as follows regarding RAN and Northern Dancer: RAN sire line was represented by 8 of the top 20 stallions and the Northern Dancer sire line was represented by 5 of the top 20 stallions. The 8 stallions carrying the RAN sire line accumulated approx 54 million dollars. These 8 consisted of Distorted Humor, Maria's Mon, Smart Strike, Elusive Quality, Unbridled Song, Speightstown, Street Cry, and City Zip. Regarding Northern Dancer sire line stallions. These were Giants Causeway, Lion Heart,
Tale of the Cat, Stormy Atlantic and Medaglia DOro. These 5 accumulated progeny earnings of approx 27 million dollars. Naturally, since the RAN sire line leaders outnumbered the Northern Dancer sire line leaders, the total progeny earnings for Raise A Native sire line horses is much greater. But one must realize that RAN is more dominant near the top of the sire lists.
2009------There were 10 RAN sire line leaders found in the top 20 sires in bloodhorse stallion register: The ten are as follows: Distorted Humor, Smart Strike, Street Cry, Northern Afleet, Unbridled Song, Lemon Drop Kid , Empire Maker, Not For Love, Elusive Quality, and Birdstone. There were only 6 Northern Dancer sire line stallions in the top 20 in Bloodhorses Stallion Register. They were Giants Causeway, Medaglia D Oro, Tale of the Cat, Stormy Atlantic, Langfuhr, and Anabaa.
I am not sure what the sire list looks like in 2011 and have not yet received a Stallion Register from Bloodhorse for that year which really would be called the 2012 Stallion Register. I think I referred to the 2011 list from equibase or something like that on the internet. So, I made a mistake in thinking that list was published by Bloodhorse when it was equibase. Maybe you can help us find the stats for the year 2011 gross earnings for the leading top20 stallions.
Side Note: One cannot argue that the Northern Dancer sire line is just as good in getting dirt winners in America as the Raise A Native sire line. The RAN sire line has been dominant on dirt in this country for many years.
Furthermore, the RAN sire line is of premium importance in getting winners of all three legs of the Triple Crown. The facts scream loud and clear. The RAN sire line gets the most Derby, Preakness and Belmont winners. No other line even comes close over the last 25 years. That may change in the future, but that is how it has been over the last few decades.
Register. The Register from Bloodhorse called the 2011 stallion register is really stats from 2010. Similarly, the stats from the 2010 stallion register concerns the year 2009. Here are the correct figures for 2010 and 2009:
2010-----The Top 20 sires are as follows regarding RAN and Northern Dancer: RAN sire line was represented by 8 of the top 20 stallions and the Northern Dancer sire line was represented by 5 of the top 20 stallions. The 8 stallions carrying the RAN sire line accumulated approx 54 million dollars. These 8 consisted of Distorted Humor, Maria's Mon, Smart Strike, Elusive Quality, Unbridled Song, Speightstown, Street Cry, and City Zip. Regarding Northern Dancer sire line stallions. These were Giants Causeway, Lion Heart,
Tale of the Cat, Stormy Atlantic and Medaglia DOro. These 5 accumulated progeny earnings of approx 27 million dollars. Naturally, since the RAN sire line leaders outnumbered the Northern Dancer sire line leaders, the total progeny earnings for Raise A Native sire line horses is much greater. But one must realize that RAN is more dominant near the top of the sire lists.
2009------There were 10 RAN sire line leaders found in the top 20 sires in bloodhorse stallion register: The ten are as follows: Distorted Humor, Smart Strike, Street Cry, Northern Afleet, Unbridled Song, Lemon Drop Kid , Empire Maker, Not For Love, Elusive Quality, and Birdstone. There were only 6 Northern Dancer sire line stallions in the top 20 in Bloodhorses Stallion Register. They were Giants Causeway, Medaglia D Oro, Tale of the Cat, Stormy Atlantic, Langfuhr, and Anabaa.
I am not sure what the sire list looks like in 2011 and have not yet received a Stallion Register from Bloodhorse for that year which really would be called the 2012 Stallion Register. I think I referred to the 2011 list from equibase or something like that on the internet. So, I made a mistake in thinking that list was published by Bloodhorse when it was equibase. Maybe you can help us find the stats for the year 2011 gross earnings for the leading top20 stallions.
Side Note: One cannot argue that the Northern Dancer sire line is just as good in getting dirt winners in America as the Raise A Native sire line. The RAN sire line has been dominant on dirt in this country for many years.
Furthermore, the RAN sire line is of premium importance in getting winners of all three legs of the Triple Crown. The facts scream loud and clear. The RAN sire line gets the most Derby, Preakness and Belmont winners. No other line even comes close over the last 25 years. That may change in the future, but that is how it has been over the last few decades.
Stan
The top 20 sires by progeny earnings published by the Bloodhorse for 2011 shows 8 from Northern Dancer with 88 stakes winners and in excess of $48M and 5 for Mr. Prospector with 68 stakes winners and in excess of $38M, but I used the entire 150 and made my statement as to Northern Dancer because he was represented by 52 sires on the list and Mr. Prospector had 46.
DDT
The top 20 sires by progeny earnings published by the Bloodhorse for 2011 shows 8 from Northern Dancer with 88 stakes winners and in excess of $48M and 5 for Mr. Prospector with 68 stakes winners and in excess of $38M, but I used the entire 150 and made my statement as to Northern Dancer because he was represented by 52 sires on the list and Mr. Prospector had 46.
DDT
Raise A Native on Dirt only
DDT: I wonder what the stats would look like if one only counted progeny earnings on dirt in this country. This would mean ruling out all turf earnings and earnings on polytracks. My guess is that RAN would reign supreme but without the data I really do not know.
Main point: When handicapping the Triple Crown Races the Northern Dancer sire line does not compare well with the RAN sire line. Northern Dancer does not even come close to the success of the RAN sire line in all three Triple Crown events.
Northern Dancer sire line is a dominant sire line for grass runners all over the world.
The RAN sire line is dominant in getting dirt runners in America.
Main point: When handicapping the Triple Crown Races the Northern Dancer sire line does not compare well with the RAN sire line. Northern Dancer does not even come close to the success of the RAN sire line in all three Triple Crown events.
Northern Dancer sire line is a dominant sire line for grass runners all over the world.
The RAN sire line is dominant in getting dirt runners in America.
Stan
Count it any way you desire, how about we just count Raise a Native without Mr. Prospector, then what do you get? Without Mr. Prospector the line is nearly dead so it would be wise to look at it as the Mr. Prospector/Raise a Native male line. By the way, for your favorite stats, Broodmare leaders, Northern Dancer is tops in that department also. You have your opinions and I have mine, okay?
DDT
Count it any way you desire, how about we just count Raise a Native without Mr. Prospector, then what do you get? Without Mr. Prospector the line is nearly dead so it would be wise to look at it as the Mr. Prospector/Raise a Native male line. By the way, for your favorite stats, Broodmare leaders, Northern Dancer is tops in that department also. You have your opinions and I have mine, okay?
DDT
By the way Mr Prospector leads as Broodmare sire
DDT
By the way how many times has Northern Dancer led the broodmare sire list in North America? Only once in 1991 whereas Mr. Prospector was the leading Broodmare sire 9 times in North America (1997,1998,1999, 2000,2001,2002, 2003,2005, and 2006).
Do you really think the Northern Dancer sire line is better than the Mr. Prospector sire line at getting winners of stake races on dirt in this country? If so, show stats that prove this.
By the way how many times has Northern Dancer led the broodmare sire list in North America? Only once in 1991 whereas Mr. Prospector was the leading Broodmare sire 9 times in North America (1997,1998,1999, 2000,2001,2002, 2003,2005, and 2006).
Do you really think the Northern Dancer sire line is better than the Mr. Prospector sire line at getting winners of stake races on dirt in this country? If so, show stats that prove this.
Stan
Not once did I say Northern Dancer was a better broodmare sire than Mr. Prospector, what I said is looking at the leading broodmare sires list, the Northern Dancer sire line leads in that department also. You want me to prove that the Northern Dancer sire line produces more dirt stakes winners than the Mr. Prospector line and I say if you want that information you research it. What I said to Linda D in this thread was based on sire line representation on the 2011 Bloodhorse list, and I stand by that statement, the Northern Dancer sire line is the dominant sire line with Mr. Prospector running a very close second.
DDT
Not once did I say Northern Dancer was a better broodmare sire than Mr. Prospector, what I said is looking at the leading broodmare sires list, the Northern Dancer sire line leads in that department also. You want me to prove that the Northern Dancer sire line produces more dirt stakes winners than the Mr. Prospector line and I say if you want that information you research it. What I said to Linda D in this thread was based on sire line representation on the 2011 Bloodhorse list, and I stand by that statement, the Northern Dancer sire line is the dominant sire line with Mr. Prospector running a very close second.
DDT
Sire of sons that are good broodmare sires
DDT
Ok, you cleared up your statement to mean that the ND sire line is represented by more broodmare sire leaders than the Mr Prospector sire line.
In response to your statement that the Ran sire line would be nearly dead if it weren't for Mr Prospector. Yes, that's true but it doesn' change the value of the sire line which is still very strong.
Also, two Derby winners in recent years did carry the Ran sire line and did not trace to Mr. prospector along the sire line. These two were Monarchos in 2001 and Super Saver in 2010
In a book, Racehorse Breeding Theories by Frank Mitchell on page 161 Rommy Faversham refers to 4 dominant male lines from 1975 -2000 . These 4 were Native Dancer, Northern Dancer, Royal Charger, and Nasrullah. However, every Ran and Mr prospector sire line horse is also a member of the Native Dancer sire line.
Perhaps in another 10 or 20 years the names will change again.
Ok, you cleared up your statement to mean that the ND sire line is represented by more broodmare sire leaders than the Mr Prospector sire line.
In response to your statement that the Ran sire line would be nearly dead if it weren't for Mr Prospector. Yes, that's true but it doesn' change the value of the sire line which is still very strong.
Also, two Derby winners in recent years did carry the Ran sire line and did not trace to Mr. prospector along the sire line. These two were Monarchos in 2001 and Super Saver in 2010
In a book, Racehorse Breeding Theories by Frank Mitchell on page 161 Rommy Faversham refers to 4 dominant male lines from 1975 -2000 . These 4 were Native Dancer, Northern Dancer, Royal Charger, and Nasrullah. However, every Ran and Mr prospector sire line horse is also a member of the Native Dancer sire line.
Perhaps in another 10 or 20 years the names will change again.
Stan
I do not think my statements need to be cleared up, however, Since 1970 Raise a Native is the only Native Dancer sire line stallion to be a leading sire by earnings so Rommy should have said Raise a Native, not Native Dancer, you should let him know the facts as you see them. As a matter of fact, during that time frame Raise a Native is represented by 10 leading sires, Northern Dancer 14, you do the math.
DDT
I do not think my statements need to be cleared up, however, Since 1970 Raise a Native is the only Native Dancer sire line stallion to be a leading sire by earnings so Rommy should have said Raise a Native, not Native Dancer, you should let him know the facts as you see them. As a matter of fact, during that time frame Raise a Native is represented by 10 leading sires, Northern Dancer 14, you do the math.
DDT
Raise A Native is Native Dancer's son
DDT: I took a closer look at the graph and Rommy does narrow the sire lines down to 4 and Native Dancer is one of the 4 most dominant sire lines. The other three are Royal Charger, Northern Dancer and Nasrullah.
You should be aware of the fact that Raise A Native is Native Dancer's son and therefore all Raise A Native sire line Derby winners (17 going back to Majestic Prince in 1969) are also members of the Native Dancer sire line. One can say that the Native Dancer sire line accounted for 18 Derby winners thru history and 17 carried the RAN sire line and one, Kaui King carried the Native Dancer sire line without tracing in tail male to RAN. Those 10 leading Raise A Native sire line horses you refer to can just as well be regarded as leading sires that carried the Native Dancer sire line.
So, there is nothing wrong in saying that Super Saver, the 2010 Derby winner, carried the Native Dancer sire line.
You should be aware of the fact that Raise A Native is Native Dancer's son and therefore all Raise A Native sire line Derby winners (17 going back to Majestic Prince in 1969) are also members of the Native Dancer sire line. One can say that the Native Dancer sire line accounted for 18 Derby winners thru history and 17 carried the RAN sire line and one, Kaui King carried the Native Dancer sire line without tracing in tail male to RAN. Those 10 leading Raise A Native sire line horses you refer to can just as well be regarded as leading sires that carried the Native Dancer sire line.
So, there is nothing wrong in saying that Super Saver, the 2010 Derby winner, carried the Native Dancer sire line.