Raise A Native Sire Line

[stancaris]

So, Northern Dancer sire line horses are better on turf. That doesn't change the bottom line of my above idea that the RAN sire line is the absolute best in the Triple Crown events.

[diomed]

Here is an interesting angle of what stallions make the most pedigree appearances in the top 3 finishers of our classics since 1990.

(S) = sire of that horse (BM) = Broodmare sire of that horse

Private Account (3), Corporate Report (S) 1991--2nd in Preakness; My Flag (BM) 1996 -- 3rd in Belmont; Vision and Verse (BM), 1999--2nd Belmont

Stage Door Johnny (3), Pleasant Tap (BM) 1990--3rd in Preakness; Thirty Six Red (BM) 1990--2nd in Belmont; Go For Gin (BM), 1994--1st in Derby, 2nd in Preakness, 2nd in Belmont

Kris S. (3) KissinKris (S) 2nd in 93 Bel; RoyalAssualt (S) 3rd 04 Bel; RockHard Ten (S) 2nd 04 Preak

Wild Again (3) Wild Gale (S) 3rd 93 KD, 3RD 93 Bel; Sarava (S) 1st02 Bel; Macho Again (BM) 2nd08 Preak

Dixieland Band (3) Monarchos (BM) 1st 01KD, 3rd 01 Bel; Street Sense (BM) 1st 07 KD, 2nd 07 Preak;Eight Belles (S) 2nd 08 KD

Danzig (3) PineBluff (S) 1st 92 Preak, 3rd92 Bel; Fusaichi Pegasus (BM) 1st00 KD, 2nd 00 Preak; Hard Spun (S) 2nd 07 KD, 3rd 07 Preak

Gone West (4), Commendable (S), 2000--1st in Belmont; Proud Citizen (S) 2002 -- 2nd in Derby, 3rd in Preakness; Brilliant Speed (BM), 2011--3rd in Belmont; Union Rags(BM) 2012 Belmont.

Alydar (4) StrikeThe Gold (S) 1st 91 KD, 2nd91 Bel; Alydeed (BM) 2nd 92Preak; Cat Thief (BM) 3rd 99KD; AP Valentine (BM) 2nd 01Preak, 2nd 01 Bel

Quiet American (4) Real Quiet (S) 1st 98 KD, 1st 98 Preak, 2nd98 Bel; Bernardini (BM) 1st06 Preak; Anak Nakal (BM) 3rd08 Bel; Astrology (BM) 3rd 11Preak

Dynaformer (5) Blumin Affair (S) 3rd94 KD; Perfect Drift (S) 3rd 02 KD; Barbaro (S) 1st 06 KD; Brilliant Speed (S) 3rd11 Bel; Atigun(BM) 3rd 12 Bel.

Storm Bird (5) Summer Squall (S) 2nd 90 KD, 1st 90 Preak; ThunderGulch (BM) 1st 95 KD, 3rd 95 Preak, 1st 95Bel; Birdstone (BM) 1st 04 Bel; Andromeda’s Hero (BM) 2nd05 Bel; Stay Thirsty (BM) 2nd11 Bel

Smart Strike (5) Curlin (S) 3rd 07 KD, 1st07 Preak, 2nd 07 Bel; Mine That Bird (BM) 1st 09 KD, 2nd 09 Preak,3rd 09 Bel; Lookin At Lucky (S) 1st Preak; First Dude (BM) 2nd 10 Preak, 3rd 10Bel; Dullahan (BM) 3rd 12 KD

Storm Cat (6) TobascoCat (S) 1st 94 Preak, 1st 94 Bel; Cat Thief (S) 3rd 99 KD; Vision and Verse (S) 2nd 99 Bel; Sunday Break (BM) 3rd 02 Bel; Bluegrass Cat (S) 2nd 06 KD, 2nd 06 Bel;Bodemeister (BM) 2nd 12 KD

Unbridled (7) Grindstone(S) 1st 96 KD; Red Bullet (S) 1st 00 Preak; Unshaded (S) 3rd 00 Bel; Empire Maker (S) 2nd 03 KD, 1st 03 Bel;Eddington (S) 3rd 04 Preak;Denis of Cork (BM) 3rd 08 KD, 2nd 08 Bel; Shackelford(BM) 1st 11Preak

Deputy Minister (7) Mane Minister (S) 3rd 91 KD, 3rd91 Preak, 3rd 91 Bel; Touch Gold (S) 1st 97 Bel;Impeachment (S) 3rd 00 KD, 3rd00 Preak; Sarava (BM) 1st 02Bel; Jazil (BM) 1st 06 Bel;Rags To Riches(BM)

A.P. Indy (Eight) Aptitude(S) 2nd 00 KD, 2nd 00 Bel; AP Valentine (S) 2nd 01 Preak, 2nd 01Bel; Bernardini(S) 1st 06 Preakness; Bluegrass Cat (BM) 2nd06 KD, 2nd 06 Bel; Rags To Riches (S) 1st 07 Bel; Dunkirk (BM) 3rd 08 Bel; Super Saver (BM) 1st10 KD; Astrology (S) 3rd 11Preak

[stancaris]

Your data above is very interesting and points out that the Northern Dancer sire line plus broodmare sire line has a fine representation in getting horses to finish in the money in the Triple Crown. I counted 24 in the money finishes for both Northern Dancer and Raise A Native (sire line plus bms line).

However, the bottom line regarding winners of the three major Triple Crown events is still the same: I looked at all of the winners since 1990 and found the following to be true:

Derby since 1990-- 14 winners carried the RAN sire line whereas only 4 winners carried the Northern Dancer sire line.

Preakness since 1990- 11 winners carried the RAN sire line whereas only 8 carried the Northern Dancer sire line.

Belmont since 1990- 14 winners carried the RAN sire line whereas only 4 carried the Northern Dancer sire line

Totals in all three triple crown events. 39 winners for RAN and 16 for Northern Dancer. The data regarding the two sire lines regarding winners is clear.

The bottom line is still the same if one looks only at the winners of the three legs of the crown one finds that the RAN sire line reigns supreme.

[diomed]

I just spun a different angle for fun. Despite the dominance of RAN/ND, AP Indy leads my list. He is Nasrullah/Nasrullah. That sire line is still making it's appearances in classic American pedigrees.

[stancaris]

I see your point about Nasrullah, however regarding the Derby the last winner of the roses to carry the Nasrullah sire line was 25 years ago and that was the filly Winning Colors in 1988. 25 years is an awful drought for the Nasrullah sire line.

[diomed]

I see your point about Nasrullah, however regarding the Derby the last winner of the roses to carry the Nasrullah sire line was 25 years ago and that was the filly Winning Colors in 1988. 25 years is an awful drought for the Nasrullah sire line.

It is just one of the classics. I still think the AP Indy line will get one. I am surprised that the race eludes Indy. He's got a Preakness and Belmont winner and a Derby winner as a BM sire. The Nasrullah bloodline is still a very dominant one IMO and far from dead. But that's just my opinion, not saying that RAN is not the leader of the pack in the male line race. I personally look at the entire pedigree, but that is just me.

[stancaris]

Pedigree students probably will agree with you that one must look at the whole pedigree and not just a sire line. However, looking just at the sire line has helped me cash many tickets on the Triple Crown races. The RAN sire line is supreme in all three events. When combined with a few other handicapping fundamentals (racing stats) that sire line is fantastic in generating winners of all three jewels of the crown. There are certainly many pieces to the puzzle of handicapping but the bottom line for the Triple Crown events is still the same: The RAN sire line is a great place to start the handicapping process. Sometimes it even makes one reach a pinnacle of success -(-ex. the 48,000 superfecta RAN sire line in this years Derby)

[hpkingjr]

I wondered about the Kentucky Oaks, (too tired to check the Black Eyed Susan and Acorn) and the sire lines for the last 25 years are a little different. In order:

1. Northern Dancer 9 winners
2. Nasrullah 7 winners
3. RAN 6 winners
4. Hail to Reason 2 winners
5. Alsab 1 winner

I'll try to follow up on the Acorn and Susan unless someone beats me to it. Interesting discussion.

So is a ND sire a better filly sire?

[hpkingjr]

Working through the filly triple crown in the last 25 years, for the Acorn:

1. Northern Dancer 11 winners
2. RAN 6 winners
3. Nasrullah 5 winners
4. 1 winner each for Hail to Reason, Damascus and Princequillo

[stancaris]

Here is some data about the third leg of the Triple Tiara, The Coaching Club American Oaks for the last 25 years 1987-2011. This race was run at 10 furlongs all the way to 2009. So it is the most grueling of the three legs of the Triple Tiara.

Raise A Native Sire Line--------------9 winners
Nasrullah Sire Line--------------------7 winners
Northern Dancer Sire Line------------3 winners
Turn-To Sire Line----------------------3 winners
Tudor Minstrel Sire Line---------------1 winner
Native Dancer Sire Line---------------1 winner (without going thru RAN)
Ribot Sire Line-------------------------1 winner

Conclusion: The data above indicates the Northern Dancer sire line may just not be as good when it comes to winning at 10 furlongs while the RAN sire line is the best at least in this particular route at 10 furlongs. Interestingly, the RAN sire line is absolutely the best in all three legs of the Triple Crown for males and each leg is 1 3/16 or longer. Where other sire lines RUN out, the RAN sire line types RUN strongly thru the stretch because they have more RAN in them. Where RAN fillies still have a lot of RUN left in them, the Northern Dancer line fillies seem to RUN out of gas in the longest race of the filly Triple Crown. Of course it is better to have RUN and lost than to never have RAN at all.

[hpkingjr]

I've always thought of RAN as precocious speed, looks like I need to think precocious stamina.

[hpkingjr]

Northern Dancer 7 winners
RAN 6 winners (but the last 3 all my Empire Maker)
Nasrullah 5 winners
Turn-To and Damascus 2 winners each
ACk Ack, Ribot and Tudor Minstrel 1 winner each

[stancaris]

Looking at the Alabama which is run at 10 furlongs like the CCA Oaks we find that in the last 24 years the following sire lines represent the winners:

RAN sire line --------7 winners
Nasrullah sire--------6 winners
Northern Dancer-----6 winners
Turn To---------------2 winners
Ack Ack-------------- 1 winner
Sword Dancer--------1 winner
Princequillo-----------1 winner

Note: I could not detect Runup the Colors on the pedigree site. She won the Alabama in 1997.

Anyway it seems that RAN sire line fillies do best at 10 furlongs in both the Alabama and the CCA Oaks

[diomed]

http://www.pedigreequery.com/runup+the+colors
Here is the pedigree. She's by AP Indy.

[smartyslew]

http://www.pedigreequery.com/runup+the+colors
Here is the pedigree. She's by AP Indy.

one key to mr p is the nasrullah sire line dams that he is bred to.
check the tc winners that a ran sire line sire was bred to a nasrullah
sire line dam. that carries some weight.then take that progeny
and breed it to a nearctic sire line sire.