Racing Starts vs Stud Fees

[xfactor fan]

Is there a relationship between Stud Fees and Racing Starts over time?

Without looking at the data, I'd guess there is negative relationship. As stud fees go up, the racing starts will go down. Driven by the shift from profit center--racing being the money maker in the past, to stud fees in the modern market.

I'd also guess that there is a relationship between starts and trainers owing a stallion share. With the trainers being more interested in promoting the stud fees than the racing career.

This has come to mind when thinking about the parallels between Affirmed/ Alydar, and I'll Have Another and Bodemeister.

[ElPrado]

I'd probably say yes.
There would just about have to be. Remember that when Secretariat was syndicated, one thing his owners had to stipulate was control as long as he was running, and that would be, if un-injured, through his 3 year old season. Even then, Seth Hancock was trying to pressure the trainer. He got caught at it, too.
The money has gotten too big.

[brogers]

This paper probably goes the closest to answering your question.....


Horse racing is a multi-million pound industry, in which genetic information is increasingly used to optimize breeding programmes. To maximize the probability of producing a successful offspring, the owner of a mare should mate her with a high-quality stallion. However, stallions with big reputations command higher stud fees and paying these is only a sensible strategy if, (i) there is a genetic variation for success on the racecourse and (ii) stud fees are an honest signal of a stallion's genetic quality. Using data on thoroughbred racehorses, and lifetime earnings from prize money (LE) as a measure of success, we performed quantitative genetic analyses within an animal model framework to test these two conditions. Although LE is heritable (VA=0.299±0.108, Pr=0.002), there is no genetic variance for stud fee and the genetic correlation between traits is therefore zero. This result is supported by an absence of any relationship between stud fees for currently active stallions and the predicted LE for their (hypothetical) offspring. Thus, while there are good genes to be bought, a stallion's fees are not an honest signal of his genetic quality and are a poor predictor of a foal's prize winning potential.

http://rsbl.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/4/2/173.short

[brogers]

I just re-read your question and it may not answer it. I thought you meant Stud fees and subsequent racetrack performance by their offspring.

[xfactor fan]

I'm looking into the reasons that starts are going down. Drugs, training, purses, have all been mentioned. But the economic end hasn't been explored lately.

I'm in the camp that does NOT believe in the Y chromosome of doom. I'd say theory, but that gives way too much credit to the idea.

[vineyridge]

I've been noodling around with some numbers on the Sires in the General Sire List. Most of the published numbers give percentages of success by foals of racing age. I'm looking at the numbers of successful foals by starters, not all foals of RA.

I do realize the financial impact of breeding to a stallion whose foals have a comparatively low start percentage, but once that number is obtained, it seems to me that the other numbers should be based on starters.

If you're paying a high stud fee, you are probably breeding for the sales and not for your own racing. Once the foal is off your pasture, as it were, you wouldn't care if it ever raced unless you also owned the stud.

[Blue feather]

It appears many factors contribute to the decline in thoroughbred soundness. I'll Have Another is a good example of why their is declining soundness. The incentive is to breed, not to race. Talentled 3 yo's are quickly sent to the breeding shed with many unanswered questions about their soundness. Jess Jackson and his handling of Curlin was lauded, and rightfully so. An interesting approach may be to set guildlines before a stallion could qualify to enter stud duty. A certain minimum number of starts, certain medical conditions or conformational flaws disallowed, etc.

[Tappiano]

I completely disagree that there is anything in IHA's pedigree that suggests he was genetically predisposed to injury.

Plenty of horses have these minor tendon strains, and perhaps if he'd undergone the I Want Revenge plan of treatment (pre derby) he might have been okay, but the media and the industry had declared that regardless of what the horse ever went on and did his value was already defined.

If someone says that no matter what you ever do in your career you will never make more than 50K even if you just sit at home and watch tv what would you opt for?

[vineyridge]

Aren't German horses notable for their soundness? They do seem to be in demand in European breeding these days. The Germans do not let horses go to stud that don't meet certain minimum qualifications. What those qualifications are other than a certain lifetime GAG (handicap weight), I don't know. Perhaps one of the European posters might know if there are other requirements.