Northern Dancer sire line reigns supreme

Understanding pedigrees, inbreeding, dosage, etc.

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stancaris
Restricted Stakes Winner
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Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:24 am

Northern Dancer sire line reigns supreme

Postby stancaris » Sat Dec 29, 2012 10:29 am

I noticed the DRF has listed the sire line of Northern Dancer as reigning supreme in no. of graded stakes winners etc. I looked at the data and they listed the Mr. Prospector sire line as being represented by 105 total graded stakes winners and Raise A Native sire line as having only 8 graded stakes winners.

I am somewhat perplexed. Aren't all those 105 graded stakes winners that descend from the male line of Mr. Prospector also members of the Raise A Native sire line since Raise A Native was Mr. Prospector's sire?

xfactor fan
Breeder's Cup Winner
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Postby xfactor fan » Sat Dec 29, 2012 10:43 am

This may be a lumper vs splitter issue. Where do you draw the line to start a new family? Why not use Phalaris, or Eclipse? Given accurate records, they should all carry the same Y. Which of course is the only thing that sirelines have in common.

Jeff
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Location: Nor Cal

Postby Jeff » Sun Dec 30, 2012 10:12 pm

Follow the money

stancaris
Restricted Stakes Winner
Posts: 763
Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:24 am

lets draw the line with Native Dancer

Postby stancaris » Tue Jan 01, 2013 4:06 pm

X Factor Fan: I prefer to draw the line with Native Dancer because he was probably the greatest runner responsible for generating the Raise A Native sire line who in turn got Mr. Prospector and his sire line who in turn got Fappiano etc sire lines.

Those others you mentioned go way back in time (Phalaris, Eclipse etc).

Native Dancer got 14% stakes winners as a sire and gave us the great Raise A Native whose sire line has generated 18 Kentucky Derby winners (11 going thru Mr. Prospector and 7 without Mr. Prospector in tail male.

Interestingly, Northern Dancer is a maternal grandson of Native Dancer.

These two sire lines: Mr. Prospector and Northern Dancer make up 64% of all graded stakes winners over the last 20-30 years as is mentioned in the recent DRF article on sire lines. The Mr. Prospector sire line horses make up 29% of graded stakes winners and Northern Dancer sire line makes up around 34% of graded stakes winners. Their close but Northern Dancer rules with a higher percentage. However, my guess is that Northern Dancer would not rule if the category was graded stakes winners on dirt only. I have no hard data to support this but it is a educated guess on my part.