Adrian Parry posted the following on tb_breeding_theory@yahoogroups:
I've had a quick look at the dam's dam's sire position (eg Rainbow Quest is in that position for Frankel). I restricted the search to horses 2006-2009. Some results I didn't expect.
I found Nureyev there on 426 occasions but in only 1 stakes winner.
The Minstrel 232 times but in only 1 stakes winner.
Danehill 159 times for 1 stakes winner
Mr Prospector 684 times for just 4 stakes winners.
At the other end we have Never Bend occurs 43 times and 9 stakes
Indeed horses like Plugged Nickle, Quadratic, Cormorant all 8/41 are much more successful.
I'm really confused about Mr P because he's good as a broodmare sire but seems rubbish as a mares broodmare sire.
Some Bottom Line Granddam Surprises
Moderators: Roguelet, hpkingjr, WaveMaster, Lucy
- Patuxet
- Grade III Winner
- Posts: 1150
- Joined: Fri Dec 01, 2006 10:36 pm
- Location: New England & Florida
Some Bottom Line Granddam Surprises
"He is pure air and fire and the dull elements of earth and water never appear in him; he is indeed a horse ..." Wm. Shakespeare - Henry V
-
- Breeder's Cup Winner
- Posts: 2212
- Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 8:46 pm
second damsire of what population?
Patuxet: What population did that study involve? All stakes winners, alll winners of Grade 1 stakes ? or what?
- Patuxet
- Grade III Winner
- Posts: 1150
- Joined: Fri Dec 01, 2006 10:36 pm
- Location: New England & Florida
Address questions directly to Adrian Parry at: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/tb_breeding_theory/
It's a group which he developed for the discussion of theories pertaining to the breeding of a superior racehorse.
It's a group which he developed for the discussion of theories pertaining to the breeding of a superior racehorse.
"He is pure air and fire and the dull elements of earth and water never appear in him; he is indeed a horse ..." Wm. Shakespeare - Henry V
- Patuxet
- Grade III Winner
- Posts: 1150
- Joined: Fri Dec 01, 2006 10:36 pm
- Location: New England & Florida
An explanation for the results.
I asked Adrian: "What, other than year of birth, determined/characterized the groups you analyzed? Allison"
He answered: "Nothing. I just looked at all the horses I had in database in recent years to see who their dam's dam's sires where.
I just wanted to see who appears there most in current pedigrees. I expected Mr Prospector to appear most. So that was no surprise, I didn't expect him to be in so few stakes winners in that position. Regards, AP"
Rob added that: "Mr. Prospector had much better results in that position roughly a decade earlier, in North America. An analysis by David Dink showed Mr. P less common in that position in 1995-97, but with 39/379 SWs. His sire, Raise a Native, was the most common in that position, with 30/747 SWs. Doing even better than Mr. P were Bold Reasoning, 5/37, Hoist the Flag, 39/294, and good old Never Bend, 43/416.
Of the 20 sires found most often in that position, the least good performer was Intentionally, 3/87. Rob"
Yesterday Adrian posted that he'd found a programming error which explained the skewed results.
"I'm a daft sod. Just spent 20 minutes looking at the programming logic and there is not an error there. However, something that seemed odd was that no-one had more than 9 stakes winners and that supplied the light bulb moment. I checked the database and I was using 1 digit to store the stakes winning count .. so 9 + 1 became 0 etc.'
'During those years Mr Prospector was in position 684 times. 46 of them were Group winners so much more like what I expected.'.
I asked Adrian: "What, other than year of birth, determined/characterized the groups you analyzed? Allison"
He answered: "Nothing. I just looked at all the horses I had in database in recent years to see who their dam's dam's sires where.
I just wanted to see who appears there most in current pedigrees. I expected Mr Prospector to appear most. So that was no surprise, I didn't expect him to be in so few stakes winners in that position. Regards, AP"
Rob added that: "Mr. Prospector had much better results in that position roughly a decade earlier, in North America. An analysis by David Dink showed Mr. P less common in that position in 1995-97, but with 39/379 SWs. His sire, Raise a Native, was the most common in that position, with 30/747 SWs. Doing even better than Mr. P were Bold Reasoning, 5/37, Hoist the Flag, 39/294, and good old Never Bend, 43/416.
Of the 20 sires found most often in that position, the least good performer was Intentionally, 3/87. Rob"
Yesterday Adrian posted that he'd found a programming error which explained the skewed results.
"I'm a daft sod. Just spent 20 minutes looking at the programming logic and there is not an error there. However, something that seemed odd was that no-one had more than 9 stakes winners and that supplied the light bulb moment. I checked the database and I was using 1 digit to store the stakes winning count .. so 9 + 1 became 0 etc.'
'During those years Mr Prospector was in position 684 times. 46 of them were Group winners so much more like what I expected.'.
"He is pure air and fire and the dull elements of earth and water never appear in him; he is indeed a horse ..." Wm. Shakespeare - Henry V