To all: Orb was the first Derby winner since Swale in 1984 to carry the Bold Ruler sire line. Perhaps in the next few years we may see more AP Indy line horses making their presence felt in the Derby. After all, A P Indy has some great ancestors (Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Buckpasser).
Can anyone offer a hypothesis as to why the Bold Ruler line has been incapable of producing a Derby winner for the last 28 years until Orb this year???? Back in the 1970s there were some great Bold Ruler sire line Derby winners: Secretariat, Bold Forbes, Foolish Pleasure, Cannonade, Seattle Slew, Spectacular Bid etc.
One logical answer might be the ascendence of the Raise A Native sire line mostly by way of Mr. Prospector which took the place of the Bold Rulers and became more fashionable.
Bold Ruler sire line
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Stan
It is not a question of fashion, it is a question of numbers. We continue to hear that the Kentucky Derby is the greatest race each year when in fact it is a race restricted by age and until this year restricted by earnings. Since 1970 only 2 Derby winners have become leading sires in North America and one in Japan, Northern Dancer, Seattle Slew and Sunday Silence. Since 1970 only 3 Derby winners have been leading broodmare sires in North America, Northern Dancer, Secretariat and Seattle Slew. I would also note that Northern Dancer and Sunday Silence were duel classic winners and Secretariat and Seattle Slew were both Triple Crown winners. Seattle Slew revived the Bold Ruler line and it will continue to rise through the sons and daughters of A.P. Indy. Bold Ruler did not fall out of fashion he simply ran out of representatives in the great race.
DDT
It is not a question of fashion, it is a question of numbers. We continue to hear that the Kentucky Derby is the greatest race each year when in fact it is a race restricted by age and until this year restricted by earnings. Since 1970 only 2 Derby winners have become leading sires in North America and one in Japan, Northern Dancer, Seattle Slew and Sunday Silence. Since 1970 only 3 Derby winners have been leading broodmare sires in North America, Northern Dancer, Secretariat and Seattle Slew. I would also note that Northern Dancer and Sunday Silence were duel classic winners and Secretariat and Seattle Slew were both Triple Crown winners. Seattle Slew revived the Bold Ruler line and it will continue to rise through the sons and daughters of A.P. Indy. Bold Ruler did not fall out of fashion he simply ran out of representatives in the great race.
DDT
ran out of representatives
DDT: There were 40 starters in the last 20 years that carried the Bold Ruler sire line and ONLY 1 of those 40 won the roses (Orb). That translates into 5% winners since 1994. The percent of starters in those last 20 years is approximately 12%. So in the last 20 years the Bold Ruler sire line has been represented by 12% of the starters and only 5% winners for a very low impact value of approximately .42. This means that in the last 20 years the Bold Ruler sire line in the Derby is winning the roses 58% less often than statistical expectation. And 12% of the starters is pretty good representation.
That is not what one would expect from a sire line that got 7 Derby winners in the 1970s. That is not what one would expect from a sire that led the sire list in North America 8 times. 7 Derby winners in the 70s and then in the last 30 years only two Derby winners: Swale and Orb.
Like I said the Bold Ruler sire line became less fashionable for breeders and it lost its dominance from the 1980s to 2000. It may be making a comeback now with AP Indy gaining more strength in recent years
and Orb winning the roses this year.
In the 1980s it became more and more fashionable to breed to the Raise A Native sire line by way of Alydar and then Mr. Prospector and of course Northern Dancer became extremely popular.
That is not what one would expect from a sire line that got 7 Derby winners in the 1970s. That is not what one would expect from a sire that led the sire list in North America 8 times. 7 Derby winners in the 70s and then in the last 30 years only two Derby winners: Swale and Orb.
Like I said the Bold Ruler sire line became less fashionable for breeders and it lost its dominance from the 1980s to 2000. It may be making a comeback now with AP Indy gaining more strength in recent years
and Orb winning the roses this year.
In the 1980s it became more and more fashionable to breed to the Raise A Native sire line by way of Alydar and then Mr. Prospector and of course Northern Dancer became extremely popular.
Stan
The only way a stallion or stallion line becomes fashionable with breeders is by siring runners that compete and win at the highest levels. With the exception of Seattle Slew and possibly Secretariat, none of the Bold Ruler line Derby winners had much of a stud career. 40 starters in the last 20 years equates to approximately 10% of the runners, like I said, the Bold Ruler line did not fall out of fashion, it ran low on representation.
DDT
The only way a stallion or stallion line becomes fashionable with breeders is by siring runners that compete and win at the highest levels. With the exception of Seattle Slew and possibly Secretariat, none of the Bold Ruler line Derby winners had much of a stud career. 40 starters in the last 20 years equates to approximately 10% of the runners, like I said, the Bold Ruler line did not fall out of fashion, it ran low on representation.
DDT
fashionable?
DDT: You said the only way a sire line becomes fashionable is by siring runners that compete and win at the highest levels.
The Bold Ruler sire line accounted for 7 Derby winners in the 1970s. Thats 70% Derby winners in that decade alone. Did he sire runners that competed and won at the highest level? He sure did and he sure was fashionable back then when he led the North American sire list 8 times.
By the way 40 starters in 20 years comes out very close to 12%. Here is how I figured it. 20 years with an average Derby field of 17.2 gets approximately 344 starters. 40 divided by 344 equals 11.6%.
Bold Ruler was a great sire and a great sire of sires. His line faded somewhat around the 1980s when it became more fashionable to breed to the likes of the Raise A Native sire line and the Northern Dancer sire line.
The Bold Ruler sire line accounted for 7 Derby winners in the 1970s. Thats 70% Derby winners in that decade alone. Did he sire runners that competed and won at the highest level? He sure did and he sure was fashionable back then when he led the North American sire list 8 times.
By the way 40 starters in 20 years comes out very close to 12%. Here is how I figured it. 20 years with an average Derby field of 17.2 gets approximately 344 starters. 40 divided by 344 equals 11.6%.
Bold Ruler was a great sire and a great sire of sires. His line faded somewhat around the 1980s when it became more fashionable to breed to the likes of the Raise A Native sire line and the Northern Dancer sire line.
Stan
First of all Bold Ruler may have led the sires list during a 7 year period however during that run 4 of his leading earners were 2 year olds. He sired one Classic winner, Triple Crown winner Secretariat who has no viable sons at stud, fashionable or not. In 73, Secretariat is the reason he was leading sire. Bold Ruler was not a breed shaping sire and until Seattle Slew came along his line was withering on the vine, thus my reason for stating that Bold Ruler did not become unfashionable. How do you become unfashionable without failure in the stud? Name a Bold Ruler stallion that was viable during the 80's and 90's other than Seattle Slew and the late 90's to the present other than A.P. Indy. All of those Derby winners in the 70's received input from their dams as well as Bold Ruler and since none of those winners did very much at stud can we blame the Bold Ruler line for that?
DDT
First of all Bold Ruler may have led the sires list during a 7 year period however during that run 4 of his leading earners were 2 year olds. He sired one Classic winner, Triple Crown winner Secretariat who has no viable sons at stud, fashionable or not. In 73, Secretariat is the reason he was leading sire. Bold Ruler was not a breed shaping sire and until Seattle Slew came along his line was withering on the vine, thus my reason for stating that Bold Ruler did not become unfashionable. How do you become unfashionable without failure in the stud? Name a Bold Ruler stallion that was viable during the 80's and 90's other than Seattle Slew and the late 90's to the present other than A.P. Indy. All of those Derby winners in the 70's received input from their dams as well as Bold Ruler and since none of those winners did very much at stud can we blame the Bold Ruler line for that?
DDT
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Pan Zareta
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If there's one true thing about tail male descendancy in the Thoroughbred it's that branches from successful sires proliferate soon but wither fast if first generation results in terms of progeny track performance are not sustained. The more sons of a successful sire that go into the stud, the better that sire's chance to remain a fixture in pedigree topline. Since Bold Ruler (1954) had 13 crops and 356 foals v. Raise A Native's (1961) 24 crops and 840 foals and Mr. P.'s (1970) 25 crops and 1157 foals I have to wonder to what extent the sheer number of sons that hit the ground may be affecting the distribution of sires in KD winner toplines.
Fwiw, 40 years ago I seriously doubt that anyone would have predicted that Boldnesian and Bold Reasoning would be the son and grandson through whom Bold Ruler's most enduring success in topline would come. Bold Reasoning had only 3 crops but got Slew and another son, Super Concorde, who's made his presence known on the leading sire list in Germany via son Big Shuffle and grandson Areion.
A ? - what % of starters during the last 20 years trace in tail male to RAN?
Fwiw, 40 years ago I seriously doubt that anyone would have predicted that Boldnesian and Bold Reasoning would be the son and grandson through whom Bold Ruler's most enduring success in topline would come. Bold Reasoning had only 3 crops but got Slew and another son, Super Concorde, who's made his presence known on the leading sire list in Germany via son Big Shuffle and grandson Areion.
A ? - what % of starters during the last 20 years trace in tail male to RAN?
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Barcaldine
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"Bold Ruler was not a breed-shaping sire."
Sorry, that's just not true.
Like the great ST. SIMON, his influence is dwindling forty years after his unprecedented reign as leading sire, but as others have pointed out, this is due in large part to the relatively small number of foals he produced. It was Claiborne policy in those days not to breed more than 36 mares (usually 32) per year to each stallion. Unlike Northern Dancer, Raise a Native, Mr. Prospector and most other stalwarts, BOLD RULER was not syndicated; therefore shareholders didnt demand greater access to him. The Phipps family controlled all the breeding rights, except the four given to Claiborne, and if they didnt breed their own mares to him, they engaged in foal-shares (like with Somethingroyal). So the distribution of his blood was severely limited.
I grew up in the Bold Ruler era and am certainly biased in favor of it. He was so completely dominant in American racing (they did well in Europe, too) that it was inconceivable for any other stallion line to overcome it. But sheer strength of numbers by ND, RAN and MR. P have indeed pitched it aside. But Im still looking for that big rebound!
If not a breed-shaping sire, BOLD RULER was nothing. He re-defined "classic speed" in racing around the world. And his progeny were, by and large, sound horses; the same cannot be said of RAN in particular. Only the tough contribution of NASHUA, through GOLD DIGGER, gave MR. P a leg-up on his sire in that department. But the CASE ACE (and NOT the NATIVE DANCER) in RAN's pedigree still raises its unsound head in MR. P so that he cannot be considered nearly as sound a progenitor as BOLD RULER (who was out of a tough DISCOVERY mare).
Sorry, that's just not true.
Like the great ST. SIMON, his influence is dwindling forty years after his unprecedented reign as leading sire, but as others have pointed out, this is due in large part to the relatively small number of foals he produced. It was Claiborne policy in those days not to breed more than 36 mares (usually 32) per year to each stallion. Unlike Northern Dancer, Raise a Native, Mr. Prospector and most other stalwarts, BOLD RULER was not syndicated; therefore shareholders didnt demand greater access to him. The Phipps family controlled all the breeding rights, except the four given to Claiborne, and if they didnt breed their own mares to him, they engaged in foal-shares (like with Somethingroyal). So the distribution of his blood was severely limited.
I grew up in the Bold Ruler era and am certainly biased in favor of it. He was so completely dominant in American racing (they did well in Europe, too) that it was inconceivable for any other stallion line to overcome it. But sheer strength of numbers by ND, RAN and MR. P have indeed pitched it aside. But Im still looking for that big rebound!
If not a breed-shaping sire, BOLD RULER was nothing. He re-defined "classic speed" in racing around the world. And his progeny were, by and large, sound horses; the same cannot be said of RAN in particular. Only the tough contribution of NASHUA, through GOLD DIGGER, gave MR. P a leg-up on his sire in that department. But the CASE ACE (and NOT the NATIVE DANCER) in RAN's pedigree still raises its unsound head in MR. P so that he cannot be considered nearly as sound a progenitor as BOLD RULER (who was out of a tough DISCOVERY mare).
Barc
You have your opinion I have mine. His more or less closed, limited book is the primary reason he was not a breed shaping sire, but then his lifetime AEI demonstrates what a good stallion he was in terms of siring not only winners but stakes winners, however it was not with classical winners, his sons, grandsons and great grandsons were not able to sustain the line at the top until Seattle Slew came along.
DDT
You have your opinion I have mine. His more or less closed, limited book is the primary reason he was not a breed shaping sire, but then his lifetime AEI demonstrates what a good stallion he was in terms of siring not only winners but stakes winners, however it was not with classical winners, his sons, grandsons and great grandsons were not able to sustain the line at the top until Seattle Slew came along.
DDT
DDT wrote:Barc
You have your opinion I have mine. His more or less closed, limited book is the primary reason he was not a breed shaping sire, but then his lifetime AEI demonstrates what a good stallion he was in terms of siring not only winners but stakes winners, however it was not with classical winners, his sons, grandsons and great grandsons were not able to sustain the line at the top until Seattle Slew came along.
DDT
I agree. I think Penny Chenery, Secretariat's owner, confirmed this by saying something about Secretariat proving that Bold Rulers could get classic distance. A lot of Bold Rulers were precocious two-year-olds who didn't do nearly as well as older horses, NOT because they broke down, but because they were mostly sprinters or milers, and most of the big races for older horses back in the 1960s and 1970s were longer.
"you cannot be brilliant if you cannot run" -- bdw0617
Great sire line
DDT: Bold Ruler was a phenomenal sire and his line was magnificent.
Bold Ruler led the north American sire list 8 times: 1963 to 1969 and also in 1973. His male line generated two Triple Crown winners.
The Bold Ruler sire line is responsible for 4 horses that led the NA sire list: What a pleasure who was the leader in 1975 and 1976, Raja Baba who was the leader in 1980, Seattle Slew led the list in 1984, and AP Indy who led the list in 2003 and 2006.
Bold Ruler fathered 11 champions. Was he a breed shaper? What exactly is a breed shaper? Two Triple Crown winners, 11 champions, 4 male line descendants that led the NA sire list and two of them multiple times. What more can one ask of a sire and his sire line. One would be hard pressed to name more than a handful of sires that had such a phenomenal record in the breeding shed.
Pan Zereta: In answer to your question: What percent of Raise A Native sire line horses ever started in the Derby? Answer 25 percent.
Bold Ruler led the north American sire list 8 times: 1963 to 1969 and also in 1973. His male line generated two Triple Crown winners.
The Bold Ruler sire line is responsible for 4 horses that led the NA sire list: What a pleasure who was the leader in 1975 and 1976, Raja Baba who was the leader in 1980, Seattle Slew led the list in 1984, and AP Indy who led the list in 2003 and 2006.
Bold Ruler fathered 11 champions. Was he a breed shaper? What exactly is a breed shaper? Two Triple Crown winners, 11 champions, 4 male line descendants that led the NA sire list and two of them multiple times. What more can one ask of a sire and his sire line. One would be hard pressed to name more than a handful of sires that had such a phenomenal record in the breeding shed.
Pan Zereta: In answer to your question: What percent of Raise A Native sire line horses ever started in the Derby? Answer 25 percent.
Stan
You started this thread by asking why Bold Ruler fell out of fashion with breeders after his line's Derby winning spree in the 70's. I maintain my position that he did not fall out of fashion he merely ran out of runners and that was a direct result of his line's lack of representation of top stallions.
DDT
You started this thread by asking why Bold Ruler fell out of fashion with breeders after his line's Derby winning spree in the 70's. I maintain my position that he did not fall out of fashion he merely ran out of runners and that was a direct result of his line's lack of representation of top stallions.
DDT
Breed shaper
DDT: What exactly is a breed shaping sire?
My last post above about Bold Rulers achievements at stud would certainly place him among the all time great stallions. What does a stallion have to achieve to be a breed shaper?
My last post above about Bold Rulers achievements at stud would certainly place him among the all time great stallions. What does a stallion have to achieve to be a breed shaper?
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Pan Zareta
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Re: Great sire line
stancaris wrote:Pan Zereta: In answer to your question: What percent of Raise A Native sire line horses ever started in the Derby? Answer 25 percent.
Thanks, Stan. Is that overall, or for the last 20 runnings (1994-2013)?
Linda_D wrote:I agree. I think Penny Chenery, Secretariat's owner, confirmed this by saying something about Secretariat proving that Bold Rulers could get classic distance. A lot of Bold Rulers were precocious two-year-olds who didn't do nearly as well as older horses, NOT because they broke down, but because they were mostly sprinters or milers, and most of the big races for older horses back in the 1960s and 1970s were longer.
Successor may have been the only Bold Ruler prior to Secretariat to get a blacktype win at 12f or longer but Bold Ruler got more than a few foals that were GSW at 10f. By ~1970, however, it seems to have been the early-maturing 2yo speedballs that were less successful at 3 who were defining their sire's rep. At the very least, Secretariat and Wajima (from BR's last crop, ran 2d in the last JCGC run at 16f) put a huge asterisk on that conclusion.
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FWIW, "breed shaping" is a rather nebulous term. Bold Ruler's presence in topline has waned to one major conduit and several minor ones but he never became 'unfashionable' elsewhere in the pedigree. Quite the reverse, and let's not forget that his major topline conduit, AP Indy, has in the bottom half of his pedigree strong reinforcement of Bold Ruler through his most accomplished son.
Re: Breed shaper
stancaris wrote:DDT: What exactly is a breed shaping sire?
My last post above about Bold Rulers achievements at stud would certainly place him among the all time great stallions. What does a stallion have to achieve to be a breed shaper?
How many of Bold Ruler's sons became leading sires and then sired sons that became leading sires? The answer is 0.
If NOT for Seattle Slew, a great grandson from a rather undistinguished branch of the Bold Ruler clan, Bold Ruler would only be a seen today in modern racing pedigrees through the female side, primarily through Secretariat and Raja Baba.
In other words, Bold Ruler's legacy didn't carry over much beyond himself, which says to me that maybe his success at stud had a more lot to do with the mares he was bred to than to his own greatness.
Look at Northern Dancer. Not only did he sire lots of champions but his champion sons have gone on to sire champions who have sired more champions and important sires. Yes, partly it's a numbers game, but even back in the 1970s, Bold Ruler was being eclipsed because NONE of his sons were nearly as good as he was, and his grandsons were generally even less impressive.
"you cannot be brilliant if you cannot run" -- bdw0617