Keep or sell this mare

Understanding pedigrees, inbreeding, dosage, etc.

Moderators: Roguelet, hpkingjr, WaveMaster, Lucy

Mac
Allowance Winner
Posts: 419
Joined: Sat Mar 31, 2007 9:29 pm
Location: Texas

Keep or sell this mare

Postby Mac » Mon Oct 28, 2013 6:44 pm

Struggling with selling this mare. She's in the November Keeneland sale, but as much as I could use the cash, she's got a lot of what I like in a broodmare. Thoughts?

Her name is Glowing Spirit (Brazilian) by Crimson Tide, out of a Spend A Buck mare. She has a light first and second dam, in terms of there is no other blacktype besides herself. The third dam on back gets pretty strong. Glowing Spirit did get group 1 placed at 2 in Brazil, and she ran decently well in southern California, including an allowance win at Santa Anita plus a strong closing second place in a stakes at Fairplex on the dirt. Her rag speed figures are decent and she showed some early speed in a couple of her starts although was mostly a closer.

I bought this mare privately with some hope of keeping her for our breed to race program. Thanks if any of you have thoughts as to how well her pedigree may cross with our U.S. sirelines.

On physical, she's 15 3, great bone, nice shoulder and hip, pretty correct, and a very nice racehorse kind of walk.

Thanks!

User avatar
Patuxet
Grade III Winner
Posts: 1150
Joined: Fri Dec 01, 2006 10:36 pm
Location: New England & Florida

Postby Patuxet » Thu Oct 31, 2013 9:06 am

It depends on your objective. If it's 'breed to race" I think she has some good things to work with. If it's "breed to sell" I suspect she'd likely be dismissed out of hand.
"He is pure air and fire and the dull elements of earth and water never appear in him; he is indeed a horse ..." Wm. Shakespeare - Henry V

Mac
Allowance Winner
Posts: 419
Joined: Sat Mar 31, 2007 9:29 pm
Location: Texas

Postby Mac » Thu Oct 31, 2013 1:00 pm

Hi Patuxet,

thanks for weighing in. Our objective is breed to race a two turn type horse. If breeding to sell I'd go for a lot more blacktype besides her up close and that might be where you are coming from. I do like her sirelines especially for a two turn breeding program, and her one or two starts on dirt showed she was pretty versatile. Still struggling with it though. Thanks very much for sharing your impressions.

Jeff
Starters Handicap
Posts: 745
Joined: Sun Jan 30, 2005 7:49 pm
Location: Nor Cal

Postby Jeff » Thu Oct 31, 2013 4:48 pm

Mac,

I love your mare's pedigree, I'm sure she would sell just fine, even if not for a small fortune..

Love her sir's linebreeding 3x3 full siblings Special and Thatch. He's a genetic.gem. Out of a Buckpasser line grand daughter of a Kentucky Derby winner! What's not to like?

I'd breed her to a stallion with a damsire that hooks into the full siblings Special and Thatch somehow, though i don't have a sire in mind, i'll be thinking about it and come up with a recommendation. Nice mare.

Mac
Allowance Winner
Posts: 419
Joined: Sat Mar 31, 2007 9:29 pm
Location: Texas

Postby Mac » Thu Oct 31, 2013 6:47 pm

Hey Jeff,

Wow thanks. the doubling up on Special and the Spend A Buck/Buckpasser are my favorites too about the mare. Plus she's got plenty of Princequillo. I so agree on finding a sire offering Special in the pedigree. Would LOVE your ideas...thanks so much. Hopefully if she stays in our broodmare program she will be one of those Sadlers Wells branches that loves the dirt. Zardana by the same sire seemed to like a dirt surface and won some good stakes in the U.S. and I think beat Rachel Alexandra in one of them.

If you think of a sire you like for her...I'd love to hear. :)

User avatar
Patuxet
Grade III Winner
Posts: 1150
Joined: Fri Dec 01, 2006 10:36 pm
Location: New England & Florida

Postby Patuxet » Sat Nov 02, 2013 8:25 pm

Mac:

Doubling up on Special was used in breeding Wrote whose pedigree shares similarities with that of your mare. Her sires, like High Chaparral, is by Sadler's Wells out of Darshaan mare.

Wrote won the BC Juvenile turf a couple of years ago and is standing in FL this season. http://www.pedigreequery.com/wrote

Quality stallions with Special and Buckpasser up close enough to be useful are scarce in this country. There aren't a lot of Lemon Drop Kids around. King Cugat comes to mind but I believe he's in NY now. Good luck.
"He is pure air and fire and the dull elements of earth and water never appear in him; he is indeed a horse ..." Wm. Shakespeare - Henry V

Mac
Allowance Winner
Posts: 419
Joined: Sat Mar 31, 2007 9:29 pm
Location: Texas

Postby Mac » Sun Nov 03, 2013 8:30 am

Thanks Patuxet, I will check Wrote out. I am unfamiliar with him. I was sort of studying English Channel (out of a Theatrical (Nureyev) mare) if I can breed to him inexpensively, which is a question. I've gotten the stud fee pretty inexpensively in the past but that doesn't mean I still can. Archarcharch carries Nureyev, as does Afleet Alex and Northern Afleet, although not necessarily up close on some of these. You are right it isn't that easy to find Special up close.

User avatar
madelyn
Moderator
Posts: 10049
Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2004 1:53 pm
Location: Louisville, KY

Postby madelyn » Sun Nov 03, 2013 12:37 pm

Can't give advice on whether to sell or not - it's something I, myself, have not yet perfected :lol:

Inbreeding Special is interesting. To broaden your options, you could look to just double up on that female family (Rough Shod) and if you can get to English Channel for something acceptable pricewise, maybe you could do something similar with Stormy Atlantic, whom I really like a LOT with this particular mare.
So Run for the Roses, as fast as you can.....

kimberley mine
Breeder's Cup Contender
Posts: 1811
Joined: Tue Jan 11, 2005 8:43 pm

Postby kimberley mine » Sun Nov 03, 2013 1:02 pm

If you are in Texas.....most of the races are on dirt. There is some two-turn turf, but not as much as on the dirt.

I would NOT count on this mare's sire to be one of those branches of Sadlers Wells to sire dirt talent. Zardana was out of a dirt-heavy Argentine family. Medaglia D'oro did well on dirt but even for El Prado he was a bit of an anomaly. El Prado's other big sons, Kittens Joy and Artie Schiller, are turf/turf and synth. Meanwhile, your mare's dam is heavy duty turf bred for several generations.

All of this mare's wins were on turf, and her best performances on turf. She was stakes-placed on dirt, in a minor stake at a minor track. The winning time of that stake was slower than fractional times that this mare ran at Santa Anita and Del Mar in races she placed or showed in. She was competitive on dirt, yes, but a notch below her best. My read on the Fairplex stake is that it came up light and her trainer went for it. Nothing wrong with that.

I think she was a good racemare and for breeding a nice running horse has a lot of potential. If turf isn't going to be economical for you, though, then move her on. If there aren't races for her offspring, you don't make money.

If you look for a stallion who will give you 6.5 to 8f capability on grass, then you have a lot more options in OK, TX, and LA. If you're running in KY or where there are synth tracks your options open up a lot more.

I like this mare with Mizzen Mast quite a lot.

Mac
Allowance Winner
Posts: 419
Joined: Sat Mar 31, 2007 9:29 pm
Location: Texas

Postby Mac » Sun Nov 03, 2013 2:00 pm

Madelyn and kimberlymine, thanks for weighing in. My partner's farm is in Iowa and we are running horses all over so not based in Texas at this point. Therefore it wouldn't be a problem if breeding for turf, but I was hoping her one decent race and the Spendabuck broodmare sire angle would help her be more versatile. However her direct dam family is turf-dominant and that is a good observation that I agree with.

I like the suggestion of Stormy Atlantic but it would seem a stretch that they would go down to my beer budget ($5k to $10k). Not even sure I can get there with English Channel although its possible because I've supported the stallion.

Kimberlymine the suggestion of Mizzen Mast is a good one and he's already on the short list. He can certainly throw an attractive horse and she could use the height he seems to put into his babies.

Yes it is HARD to know when to sell and when to keep. Finances sometimes drive these decisions. Thanks both of you for great input.

kimberley mine
Breeder's Cup Contender
Posts: 1811
Joined: Tue Jan 11, 2005 8:43 pm

Postby kimberley mine » Mon Nov 04, 2013 10:49 am

I think that this mare might fit very well into the Illinois-bred program--especially with the synth track at Arlington.

With regard to stallions, I think looking for honest milers (or ones who could run well at 6-7f but did best at a mile) is most likely to get you what you want. You don't want too much stamina, but rather just enough speed that there will be ample racing opportunities for the foal and still have two-turn scope.

Obviously Mizzen Mast fits that bill. Alphabet Soup will be in Kentucky next year if you want the Cozzene line but Mizzen Mast is out of your price range--he has been siring graded winners on turf and synth up in Canada and might be a very good fit for what you're trying to do, especially if you're in a statebred program.

The Blushing Groom line is another one that I like for this mare. Twirling Candy at $10k looks really good here on paper...fantastic speed, graded winner on dirt, turf, and synth, and ran best at 7-8f although was competitive longer. I like him pedigree-wise better than Misremembered and Sidney's Candy due to the Danzig on his damline. Candy Ride has a Gr-3 winner out of a Sadlers Wells-line mare. (Yes I know this isn't direct BG sireline but that is hard to find now.)

Another low-fee option with that Blushing Groom line is Run Away and Hide. If Darby Dan keeps his fee in your budget next year, he's siring quality out of mares with all kinds of different breeding.

User avatar
Patuxet
Grade III Winner
Posts: 1150
Joined: Fri Dec 01, 2006 10:36 pm
Location: New England & Florida

Postby Patuxet » Mon Nov 04, 2013 12:59 pm

I tend to take distinctions made between turf vs.dirt proclivities and abilities with a block of salt. As a fan of the long gone and apparently not much lamented Washington DC International I early on noticed that top US dirt horses like Kelso, Gun Bow and Damascus could switch to turf and acquit themselves without embarrassment.

I'm also old enough to remember when the pedigrees of US classic winners and HOYs were awash with the blood of imported European classic-tested horses bred by the Aga Khan. Nashua, Bold Ruler, Never Bend and Jaipur were by Nasrullah; Swaps was by Khaled; Gallant Man, Determine and Avatar were out of mares sired by Mahmoud, which held the record for the fastest English Derby for 59 years.

By the same token Northern Dancer held the record for the fastest KY Derby until Secretariat came along and then he proved he could race on turf by winning the Canadian International. Northern Dancer went on to sire a slew of European turf classic winners.

The blood of successful turf and dirt horses is pretty well homogenized in the pedigrees of today's top Thoroughbreds and good horses. When appropriately trained they seem to be able to race successfully on both surfaces. Though I'm not holding my breathing waiting for an American-raced horse to win the Arc. I think it could be done but not by utilizing prevailing American training regimens.

Here for example are a couple of horses which succeeded at the highest levels of European racing and then ran credible seconds in the Breeders Cup Classic and defeated a lot of exclusively dirt US horses. Both are out of Sadler's Wells mares -- and one is even inbred to Special.

http://www.pedigreequery.com/sakhee

http://www.pedigreequery.com/henrythenavigator
"He is pure air and fire and the dull elements of earth and water never appear in him; he is indeed a horse ..." Wm. Shakespeare - Henry V

Mac
Allowance Winner
Posts: 419
Joined: Sat Mar 31, 2007 9:29 pm
Location: Texas

Postby Mac » Mon Nov 04, 2013 1:40 pm

Kimberly MIne and Patuxet,

thanks a TON. I get too close to this when I don't ask around for thoughts and the diversity of ideas is so welcome. Really appreciate both of you throwing out examples and stallion options.

Excellent stuff to ponder here.

Patuxet, in case I can get that steep discount to English Channel, he is bred a little like Kingmambo (Mr. P on top, Nureyev on bottom) plus has a gr. stks winner this year out of a sadlers well line mare. It does seem like a promising cross and gets another strain of special. I really enjoyed your thought process on this and the breders's cup examples.

Kimberly Mine, Mizzen Mast loves anything with sadlers wells or nureyev or if carrying special/rough shod. we might get his price down because we have another mare that crosses well with MM so hopeful on a price break.


I will look hard at your other options and soooo appreciate it, plus your great ideas.

kimberley mine
Breeder's Cup Contender
Posts: 1811
Joined: Tue Jan 11, 2005 8:43 pm

Postby kimberley mine » Mon Nov 04, 2013 5:44 pm

Regarding turf vs. dirt--

Up to a point, there is a lot of truth to the saying that a good horse will run on anything. Certainly for the likes of Northern Dancer and Secretariat and Damascus and even Arcangues, that's true.

The thing is, most horses are not stakes quality. Even for horses like War Front with 12% SW from foals (!!), that's still 88% who are NOT stakes winners. That's just the nature of things. While breeding a stakes winner would be great, it's more likely to get an allowance horse or a nice bread-and-butter claimer. That is the point that paying attention to surface preference is important: if a horse is a decent performer on dirt and a good performer on turf, looking to amplify that already-existing higher level of talent on turf is an attempt to amplify the earnings potential. Breeding this mare to a stallion who has been siring talent on turf (and maybe synth) is focusing on this mare's greater strength.